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Zoso
Banging Gangs!
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States
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Mar-16-2020 17:40
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Zoso
Banging Gangs!
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States
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Mar-16-2020 21:56
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Lews
Platipus And Prog Addict
Registered: Feb 2007
Location: Hugging Whales And Saving Trees
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quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Okay, but some extrapolation on these tools would have been a more useful response to my question. As things currently stands you can't isolate a whole population for months on end without destroying the economy. I'm not an expert on economics so I'm happy to be corrected if there are effective preventative measures. |
My apologies, I misunderstood your question!
There are a number of measures I would take right now, if I were in charge. But, first of all, no matter what happens, the economy will contract in the next quarter. The important things, in my opinion, are preventing too many deaths, ensuring the economy bounces back once we've gotten through this virus, and ensuring the government does not overly-compromise our liberties long-term because of all this.
Regarding the economy:
We need to just start giving people money. I'd suggest something like £250 per person per week. Now.
A moratorium on debts could be used. No credit card payments, mortgage payments, student loan payments, etc etc. I'm not sure if the timing is right, now, but if things close down for a long while, I'd highly recommend it.
Interest free loans from the government to businesses to help businesses highly at risk, eg airlines or restaurants. Although if a moratorium on debts is introduced, they would not necessarily need as much.
The Bank of England should rapidly expand its asset purchases. If they run out Treasury bonds to buy, they should be allowed to buy whatever they want.
I'm optimistic UK deaths from the virus will be under 100,000, in total, but I think we may see extreme social measures for 3-12 months. The economy will contract in that time, as many things cannot be done from home, but if we can limit the damage, hopefully it won't be catastrophic.
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Mar-17-2020 09:56
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Zoso
Banging Gangs!
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States
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Mar-17-2020 10:19
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OrangestO
–30–
Registered: Feb 2010
Location:
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Mar-17-2020 11:20
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Zoso
Banging Gangs!
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States
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Mar-17-2020 15:46
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Trance-M
Since 1994 tranceaddict
Registered: Oct 2005
Location: Limburg, Netherlands
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Since yesterday I start wondering or better hoping that people around here who were I'll lately already had the Coronavirus. I had a sore throat the entire last week, didn't feel well, but still could work, no coughing or sneezing. Normally nothing to worry about in this time of the year.
Meanwhile our director and his wife and some other people show clear symptoms of Corona infection like coughing, fever, pressure on the chest and feeling extremely tired.
Since the number of confirmed infections still is very low, 200 in our province of 1.1 million people and just 9 in the area I live in, I really hope the number of actual infections is way, way more.
Since the approach here also is herd immunity (60% of the people get infected) a much larger number of infections right now would mean the hospitals about just can handle it, but if the real number is as low as the tests show I don't see how we can get herd immunity soon without over-stressing our hospitals. It probably would take much longer then a year to achieve it in more or less controlled way. The cost and consequences this I don't even want to think about.
In this scenario 2500 people would die in our province. Currently 48 died, so I think the numbers don't look very good.
Tough times to come.
___________________
Longest (classic) Trance playlist on YouTube (5000 tracks released up to and including 1997), click here
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Mar-17-2020 20:00
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