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pkcRAISTLIN
arbiter's chief minion



Registered: Jul 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by Silky Johnson



Need to remember this response for the next FB antivaxxer flame war.


i've always liked "you can't reason someone out of an opinion they didn't reason themselves into". good for any number of pseudoscientific or conspiracy theory bollockses.


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Old Post Apr-09-2019 09:51  Australia
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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

I'm slightly surprised we haven't heard the old canard about the UK's mythical Sharia Law "no go zones" yet.


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Old Post Apr-09-2019 13:55  England
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Jon_Snow
tranceaddict in training



Registered: Aug 2012
Location: RIP Mrs Brady

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J

I look forward to seeing this minor factual inconvenience have absolutely no effect on your world view.


quote:
Originally posted by JEO
Are there any good normalized/cleaned statistics of crime in the UK based on the nationality or ethnic background of the suspect, and what do people usually think of those statistics? Is it ok to speak about them? I'm asking, because we're in a weird place in Finland right now: statistics indicate that foreigners and people with foreign backgrounds are suspects in 20.4% of all crime in Finland, with the said groups making up only 4.3% of our whole population. Yet talking about this subject on a constructive level is almost impossible, because some people are quick to label you a racist, and some people are quick to label every immigrant a rapist. The numbers I mention are from 2015/2016. I want to emphasize that these statistics are about suspects, not convicts, but I don't think that the general propensity to report foreign sexual offenders more easily than Finnish ones can throw the stats this much.

And to a simple person like me, more alarmingly:



These numbers seem pretty gruesome to me. I'm wondering how to discuss these issues with people without them labeling me a nazi from the outset. Am I wrong to be slightly worried about this kind of development in my country?


Old Post Apr-09-2019 16:39  United States
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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

How is that part of my post connected to JEO's in any way?


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Old Post Apr-09-2019 17:40  England
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Sand Leaper
Und der Schnee geduldig



Registered: Jul 2001
Location: Oslo, Norway

quote:
Originally posted by JEO
I'm wondering how to discuss these issues with people without them labeling me a nazi from the outset. Am I wrong to be slightly worried about this kind of development in my country?


There is certainly a debate to be had, for instance on the cost of immigration vs. the maintenance of a welfare state, the trend of immigrant over representation within certain areas of crime or the potential erosion of secular values in the face of a growing, largely reactionary population that rejects said values.

The problem with the immigration debate is that misrepresenting, framing and obscuring data is very profitable for anyone with a particular political agenda (be it left wing or right wing). You need a very solid grip on stat reading and a solid overview of the costs of immigration to make any sort of argument that is not immediately dismissed as dishonest populism in either direction, which will then land you in either the "nazi" or "globalist" slur camp. In Finland, I don't think the discourse is quite as inflamed as in Sweden, and I don't think the authorities have become quite as handsy via social media as in the UK. It's therefore unlikely that you'll be losing your job or other major opportunities by speaking out. You might lose some friends, but who gives a shit about that if they can't be friends with you simply because your political opinions differ? It's a good litmus test, I find. At some point, you have to brave the climate of fear on social media, if you want to contribute to positive change there.

So, if you truly want to engage with people on the topic of immigration, I suggest you hunker down with a stack of government and police reports for a while. If your arguments are sound, it gets easier and easier to deal with an angry Twitter mob. I'm not sure if Facebook is worth it these days, though. I've lost count of how many privacy breaches have turned up in the media the past few years. I also hope you can actually get your hands on the necessary data. Our dear neighbours have apparently stopped publishing crime stats broken down by ethnicity since 2005.


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Old Post Apr-09-2019 18:17  Norway
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Lira
Be a Good One!



Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Brasilia, Brazil and Manaus, Brazil

quote:
Originally posted by Lews
Lira, can you come in here and tell Jack he is wrong and that there is a big difference between Western Liberalism and Eastern Centrism etc.

Sure, but I'm a bit confused. Are we talking about the different institutions that developed after the break-up of the Roman Empire, with the Byzantine bit retaining much of the core institutions, and the Western side going full Charlemagne? Or are we talking about the East as non-Christian from the Middle East onwards?

I may have slept throughout this one lecture
quote:
Originally posted by Jon_Snow
Even Brazil went out and got their own Donald.

Immigration is a non-issue around here, that's not what made us shoot ourselves in the foot.

What comparisons between Trump and Bolsonaro often overlook is that Bolsonaro is a completely different beast. Babbling about foreigners would lead nowhere in Brazil because we'd need the whole of Venezuela to come into Brazil overnight to experience something like the number of immigrants the US and Canada have.

Fears that we might become Venezuela, although fantastically overblown, seemed credible to Bolsonaro supporters. The political calculus was simple: Brazil had just come out of a recession under a leftist government, and Venezuela is run by a leftist autocracy. Leftists are, therefore, the problem.

Bolsonaro positioned himself as a beacon of rightwing resistance, and even had the misfortune of being stabbed by a left-leaning lunatic. So it would be as if Trump cared not about the wall, but only about Bernie and AOC.


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Old Post Apr-09-2019 18:56  Brazil
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Jon_Snow
tranceaddict in training



Registered: Aug 2012
Location: RIP Mrs Brady

They might have different colored hair but they’re both wannabe dictators. Maybe if he makes Brazil great again you might have to build a wall to keep them out.

Old Post Apr-10-2019 00:06  United States
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Lira
Be a Good One!



Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Brasilia, Brazil and Manaus, Brazil

quote:
Originally posted by Jon_Snow
They might have different colored hair but they’re both wannabe dictators.

Well, true


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Old Post Apr-10-2019 03:35  Brazil
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Jon_Snow
tranceaddict in training



Registered: Aug 2012
Location: RIP Mrs Brady

The long awaited Twins sequel



What’s that 80s movie that they swap through some out of body mishap?

Old Post Apr-10-2019 04:20  United States
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Lews
Platipus And Prog Addict



Registered: Feb 2007
Location: Hugging Whales And Saving Trees

quote:
Originally posted by Lira
Sure, but I'm a bit confused. Are we talking about the different institutions that developed after the break-up of the Roman Empire, with the Byzantine bit retaining much of the core institutions, and the Western side going full Charlemagne? Or are we talking about the East as non-Christian from the Middle East onwards?

I may have slept throughout this one lecture


I mean, I was thinking about Asian views on Harmony Über Alles (unlike Ordnung, which is clearly different), but I suppose we could draw the boundary closer to Rome and talk about German tribalism versus Byzantine centrism etc.

Old Post Apr-10-2019 08:58 
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JEO
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2010
Location: JKL

quote:
Originally posted by Lews
I'm not sure how being concerned about those statistics is wrong (although I do recognize that many knee-jerk cretins on the left would attack you for expressing such concerns). If one group of society is more likely to commit crimes, especially crimes against women, how can society not be concerned about that? Why should we not investigate why that is and take action to change that fact?


Exactly. I don't know what is wrong with it either, but bring up these statistics, and some people will either dismiss them as inaccurate (although the inaccuracy is that residents of foreign origin, who have already gotten Finnish citizenship, are logged under "Finnish" crime, thus making the statistic inaccurate in a way), say it is racist to have nationality as one property in a crime statistic, or just plain won't take the statistic into account at all, because that's just not how they argue. Some people will multiply all the numbers by two and then proceed.

quote:
Originally posted by Sand Leaper
Our dear neighbours have apparently stopped publishing crime stats broken down by ethnicity since 2005.


I am pleasantly surprised Finland hasn't copied Sweden on this... Yet. I'm therefore predicting that this statistic will not be published in Finland in ten years.

Speaking of Löfven and his cabinet, I haven't seen him debate on many occasions, but the times I have, he's gotten a bit aggressive. The leader of our Social Democrat Party is also a bit of a hot-head – is this common for them?!

I can see the potential problems in collecting crime statistics, or any statistics for that matter, that have nationality or ethnicity as one property in them, but I think hiding these statistics almost speaks more than the actual statistic would.

quote:
Originally posted by Lews
It's perfectly possible to not think that all foreigners are sexual offenders and to concurrently think that foreign-born residents are more likely to sexually offend than native-born residents. I think it's absolutely insane to think that no effort is needed to adequately integrate people from non-Western societies into Western society (or from one Western society to another Western society).


Obviously it is possible to think that, and I think that most people think that, but are just not that interested in voicing their opinion on the matter. Thus the problem is that often discussions about these problems are infested with too much of the extreme kind of opinion, like you said yourself. However, what ever the subject is, I have more respect for the cautious skeptic than the gullible fool.

quote:
Originally posted by Sand Leaper
There is certainly a debate to be had, for instance on the cost of immigration vs. the maintenance of a welfare state, the trend of immigrant over representation within certain areas of crime or the potential erosion of secular values in the face of a growing, largely reactionary population that rejects said values.


Obvious, yet interesting point about the cost. I say interesting because it's such a pragmatic point that it is not often discussed at all here. A Finnish statutory auditor calculated the cost of immigration in Finland to be around 3.2 billion euros yearly, which is almost 6% of our country's yearly budget of 55 billion €. I'll mention that these calculations also include the indirect expenses that are consequences of immigration.

It's hard to see the benefits of this kind of immigration, especially with foreign-born unemployment numbers being three-fold compared to that of the "natives". The credibility of the most compelling pro-immigration argument to me, which is the manifold payoff of an investment in an immigrant as an asset for the manual-labour market, really takes a hit here.

I want to point out that I personally would at least like to believe that our crime statistics aren't even that strongly affected by the foreign, non-Western culture influence per se (although it obviously plays a part), but more so by the compound effect of more criminal than non-criminal people leaving a crisis-hit area to greener pastures, and our sloppy and inexperienced immigration policies in Finland, and apparently Sweden. And Denmark. And maybe Norway.. Blue-eyedness, in more than one sense.

quote:
Originally posted by Sand Leaper
The problem with the immigration debate is that misrepresenting, framing and obscuring data is very profitable for anyone with a particular political agenda (be it left wing or right wing). You need a very solid grip on stat reading and a solid overview of the costs of immigration to make any sort of argument that is not immediately dismissed as dishonest populism in either direction, which will then land you in either the "nazi" or "globalist" slur camp.


This is true, but recently I've seen more people on Twitter (mostly from the right, though), who have wanted to act as some sort of mediator between these two polar points. The cause is good, but I can see the reason in these people dwindling as they go about their mission. That position is not for anyone who gives up easily.

What comes to statistics and reading them, I think they just don't work on the vocal part of people, most of whom have already made up their mind. I try to rely on statistics, but I rarely see it used in lieu of or with rhetoric on Twitter by politicians or in public discourse in general. It's just not what the public wants to try and comprehend. My experience is that, usually, a well-reasoned argument just doesn't bite hard enough for it to hurt.

Also, why do we need immigration to the Nordic countries? The high ratio between old people and their caretakers?

One of the multiple proposed reasons for accepting large-scale immigration in Finland I've heard has been "the colonial history of Finland", which... I really don't know what to think about. I feel like my brain just can not comprehend what that is supposed to mean. Either someone slept during history class or I understand something very wrong. Basically we were a colony. In a broader context though, especially in the Anglo-Saxonic countries, I can see how there can be a collective feeling of "debt" to the countries they've historically exploited forming among some people.

quote:
Originally posted by Sand Leaper
In Finland, I don't think the discourse is quite as inflamed as in Sweden, and I don't think the authorities have become quite as handsy via social media as in the UK. It's therefore unlikely that you'll be losing your job or other major opportunities by speaking out. You might lose some friends, but who gives a shit about that if they can't be friends with you simply because your political opinions differ? It's a good litmus test, I find. At some point, you have to brave the climate of fear on social media, if you want to contribute to positive change there.


The "discourse" on this in the media here is still ok. I keep tabs on it by checking if papers still publish some sort of "shocking" or "worrying" statistics every now and then. If a paper still does that, they at least haven't given up on most truths yet. You could probably start a discussion on Twitter about a relevant problem and get a few good replies of the opposing opinion too, but frankly, there's a growing number of very vocal morons on each side that together will make the discussion a total brawl sooner or later.

What you mean by the UK, I don't know. If it's something bad, I'll be sadder than the day I learned about the Chinese Social Credit System. Can you elaborate what you mean with the UK part?

quote:
Originally posted by Sand Leaper
So, if you truly want to engage with people on the topic of immigration, I suggest you hunker down with a stack of government and police reports for a while. If your arguments are sound, it gets easier and easier to deal with an angry Twitter mob. I'm not sure if Facebook is worth it these days, though. I've lost count of how many privacy breaches have turned up in the media the past few years. I also hope you can actually get your hands on the necessary data. Our dear neighbours have apparently stopped publishing crime stats broken down by ethnicity since 2005.


Most Twitter arguments are still too harsh for my taste. Ever since a leftist Twitterist I know passed me a Google Drive spreadsheet of right-wing accounts to block to form your own bubble, I've been a bit more cautious on what to say online; the spreadsheet in question included my account.

The statistics though, those I have. We have a statistics official, Statistics Finland, who seem to publish all kinds of statistics about us.

Last edited by JEO on May-19-2019 at 11:25

Old Post May-17-2019 23:25  Finland
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BTG
Ez skinz ez lyfe



Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Milton ON

you guys gonna get TA shut down.

reeeeeeee

Old Post May-22-2019 07:35  Canada
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