quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Some odds are based on mathematical probability. The odds of a coin flip's outcome are not 50/50 because everyone agrees, they're 50/50 because that is mathematical fact. The odds you have cited are not mathematical fact at all - they measure the likelihood of an outcome that cannot be equated mathematically. Your statement odds don't lie suggests that these odds are factual statements of probability as to whether Pep Guardiola will be the next manager of Chelsea. In reality, they demonstrate nothing more than that William Hill think it's profitable to offer odds of 2/1 on that bet. Which, frankly, I don't care about, and neither do I care who is favourite, or who is second favourite. The collective ignorance of others has no influence on my opinion of Guardiola's career.
I've already accused you in this thread of supporting common misconceptions, so posting bookie's odds does nothing to make me think you're capable of independent judgement. |
Even if the odds of a coin flip are mathematically factually 50/50, I still think bookmakers would come to that conclusion based on public speculation, because they don't have time to sit and formulate the statistics of every single bet, they let the public do that for them and adjust the odds to balance the bets.
No the odds for Pep being the next manager are not as mathematically factual as a coin flip - agreed- however , given all the information available, they are the most accurate odds we have at this point in time. That doesn't mean they are perfect, but they are the best we have to go with.
You've accused me of supporting cliche misconception, but my opinion on this matter was made 2 weeks before Pep announced his desire to resume work and before bookmakers announced these odds. In fact my opinion that there is a large chance he would join Chelsea was made around the same time Pep announced he would be taking a 1 year sabbatical from the game, so I don't see how my opinion would be considered cliche. If anything the opposite.
Last edited by Taipan on May-26-2012 at 02:04
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