quote: | Originally posted by Taipan
If you are trying to say that some odds are completely straight forward - like who will win a coin toss - then these odds can also been seen as driven by speculation because the speculation will be just as straight forward. Everyone will give these odds a 50/50 chance, then based on the collective opinion , bookmakers will assign EVS odds. |
Some odds are based on mathematical probability. The odds of a coin flip's outcome are not 50/50 because everyone agrees, they're 50/50 because that is mathematical fact. The odds you have cited are not mathematical fact at all - they measure the likelihood of an outcome that cannot be equated mathematically. Your statement odds don't lie suggests that these odds are factual statements of probability as to whether Pep Guardiola will be the next manager of Chelsea. In reality, they demonstrate nothing more than that William Hill think it's profitable to offer odds of 2/1 on that bet. Which, frankly, I don't care about, and neither do I care who is favourite, or who is second favourite. The collective ignorance of others has no influence on my opinion of Guardiola's career.
I've already accused you in this thread of supporting common misconceptions, so posting bookie's odds does nothing to make me think you're capable of independent judgement.
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