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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.
Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Manchester
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Jun-23-2018 19:59
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Jon_Snow
Guest
Registered: Not Yet
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Belgium is so fun to watch, Tuna actually looked dangerous and played pretty well but it could have easily been 8-2. I was going to ask if anyone wanted to jump on the Belgium wagon but looks like it's already filled.
Germany deserved to lose should have been 0-2 but they didn't call the penalty. I was rooting for Sweden but honestly it was crazy how out matched they were. Even a man down for most of the second half Germany was all over them. They had the ball for 90%.
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Jun-23-2018 22:20
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Lira
Ancient BassAddict
Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Brasília, Brazil
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quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
This is extremely tenuous, Marcus. It's hardly unusual for a middling European team to produce a golden generation or period in a larger trend of mediocrity, and Poland were just as bad in the '50s and '60s under Communism as they were in the '90s as a democracy. Even assuming their success was somehow aided by the Communist regime, for which you'd have to provide some compelling evidence, it doesn't mean Poland became an "altogether different entity" when they transitioned. |
Football wise, yes, it was. It’s not tenuous, it’s pretty much what you’d expect: if the economy and the government changed so radically, it would quite surprising if all the sports infrastructure (from the recruitment process to training facilities) remained unscathed. Now, just so there’s no misunderstanding, my argument is that the fall of the Iron Curtain changed football in Eastern Europe, not that the socialist system helped create a winning team (although it does seem to happen in the Olympics, so I wouldn’t rule it out). And, if you want some evidence, here’s what I’ve got:
1) Economy matters
Sure, football is among the most popular sports nowadays, but although there are 211 national teams eligible for qualification, just 8 teams have won a trophy in 20 editions. Also, the distribution couldn’t possibly be more skewed, with Brazil winning a fourth of all World Cups, while Germany and Italy emerged victorious in a fifth of all tournaments. In common, Germany and Brazil share a few things: they’re the largest economies in their respective continents, are among the most populated (only Russians outnumber Germans in Europe), and aficionados in both sides of the Atlantic breathe the sport. Argentina is the second largest economy with the third largest population in South America, and Italy has the fourth economy with the fifth largest population. [url=https://www.economist.com/international/2018/06/09/what-makes-a-country-good-at-football]That these countries have prevailed is no accident, as economy and population size matter: the four biggest economies in Europe (and the sixth) have all won at least once, and they’re not exactly sparsely populated. As you can see in the article, South America and West Africa are punching above their weight, Uruguay being the ultimate outlier (it must be noted they clinched both titles in the first two World Cups held in South America, which must’ve helped).
If there’s nothing missing to show the link between the economy and good footy, let’s focus on Poland.
2) After the Curtain Fell
Before we begin, a quick word about die Mannschaft: the current German team is pretty much still West Germany, and has been dominated by the West pretty much since the reunification. So, rather than an exception, Germany is pretty much the poster child for what I’m going to say - Eastern Europe football associations were all in shambles because the fall of the Iron Curtain, and they haven’t recovered.
The one thing we can measure is GDP growth, and a quick view of GDP growth in Eastern European countries (courtesy of the World Bank) shows that the early 90s, when measurement began, their economies were contracting so much it makes the 2009 credit crisis look like a dent by comparison:
And, just as you’d expect, the Elo Ratings of Eastern European countries plummeted in the late 80’s and early 90’s, precisely because that’s when the Socialist block started to crumble and there wasn’t an equally prepared generation to pick the baton. Poland peaked in 1974~1975, and by 98 (their nadir), their Elo rating was just 80% of what it used to be. As you can see, it wasn’t just Poland - it was Eastern Europe as a whole. Even today, it’s about as good as it was in the early 90s:
So, football wise, I stand by what I said - Poland today is nothing like it used to be, because Eastern Europe changed. In case you’re wondering, the rest of Europe didn’t follow suit and although countries have ups and downs, the countries in the upper echelons of European football tend to stay there for the most part, with the notable exception of Hungary (peaked in the 50s and never came back) and Scotland, who reigned supreme in the 1880s and are now an okay team
quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Poland has had a very troubled history, and didn't exist on a map for over a century, but the Polish still regard themselves as having a consistent cultural identity dating back many hundreds of years, even under various occupations and puppet regimes. I think you'd be more sensitive here if you just admitted that you didn't really know what you were talking about when you made your original assertion. |
But, I did, and I’m extremely confused now. I was comparing Poland to Senegal, a country that isn't even 60 years old - by the time Poland got to be a free country again after the Treaty of Versailles, Senegal was still a French colony, and would remain one for quite a few decades.
I was talking about footy when I said the institutions changed and the performance reflected these changes. Also, I said Senegal had a “better tradition”. Why? The Senegalese GDP is 3% of Poland’s, and there are more than twice as many Poles than Senegalese citizens. And, yet, they stunned France in their opening match as defending champions in 1998, beat Poland this year and, if you compare their Elo ratings...
Senegal is pretty much catching up with Poland. That’s why I said it had a better tradition, so, yeah, I do know what I’m talking about.
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Jun-24-2018 02:27
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Lira
Ancient BassAddict
Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Brasília, Brazil
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quote: | Originally posted by Trance-M
I hope Brazil continues to play like they ended this match as it really would be a shame if non of the South-American countries would make it to the next round. |
As sad as it is to admit, I'm bracing myself for an all-European top 4. That's what happened last time, in Germany and, according to FiveThirtyEight's predictions, Brazil is the only non-European country with more than 20% of chance of reaching the semifinals (before the tournament began, we shared this privilege with Argentina, but they're pretty much blowing it after every opportunity, as I had imagined they would).
I was optimistic until Neymar broke down and started to cry after the match against Costa Rica. We've got a pretty good team, but emotionally they're a wreck. That's what led to the 7-1, and that'll be our undoing this year.
May Lukaku have mercy on us all
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Jun-24-2018 02:45
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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.
Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Manchester
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quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Senegal is pretty much catching up with Poland. That’s why I said it had a better tradition, so, yeah, I do know what I’m talking about. |
So because a young nation is "catching up" with one with a far longer and more prestigious history, it's the younger nation with the better tradition? Utter bollocks. You know it is, but you're too much of a self-styled nice guy to admit you might have said something culturally insensitive.
If "tradition" means anything, it's consistent trans-generational qualities of a people defined by culture and/or geography. Poland has changed economically since 1990, but fundamentally all Poles believe it is the same country and the same culture as it was under Communism. Your point about the USSR or Yugoslavia is a false equivalence, because those were countries that only formed in the early 20th century out of a geographically and culturally broad array of territories, and dissolved back into those diverse territories after the fall of the Berlin Wall. It makes sense to say that these nations became "altogether different entities", but it doesn't make sense with Poland. Nobody discounts periods of sporting achievement or failure based on the economic conditions of a nation at that time. Except you, when you realise you've dropped a bollock.
The facts are self-evident. Poland have been to many more World Cups and have progressed much further in the World Cup than Senegal. You appear to be trying to make some kind of "pound for pound" argument for Senegal, that they are over-achieving relative to Poland. But that isn't "tradition". And discounting anything before 1990 and focusing only on recent history when trying to determine "tradition" is completely oxymoronic, as far as I'm concerned.
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Last edited by SYSTEM-J on Jun-24-2018 at 08:19
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Jun-24-2018 08:03
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