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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

I don't even think cliche is the right word for what you are trying to say. I think you mean mainstream - but both descriptions are equally offensive.

So you think Pep will take a sabbatical for a year? How is that any less mainstream? The guy said so himself. At least I'm trying to read between the lines. The timing of his departure and the loyalty of his fans and players - it would be much of a slap in the face to Barca for him to get up and leave his club for the one that has knocked them out of the champions league. But as I stated earlier, my opinion is based on my belief that there is a price for anything, and Chelsea gets what Chelsea wants.

Old Post May-26-2012 05:40  United States
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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by srussell0018
Don't you have a 1000 word essay to write about how much of a faggot you are from last year's NBA playoffs? You probably should've calculated the odds better before making that bet huh?


Typical srussell0018. You always have to have the last word, even if it doesn't make any sense.

Well , this time I'll let you have the last word:

quote:
Originally posted by srussell0018


How red is your face right now?

Old Post May-26-2012 05:42  United States
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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Some odds are based on mathematical probability. The odds of a coin flip's outcome are not 50/50 because everyone agrees, they're 50/50 because that is mathematical fact.


So this argument has somewhat come to an end and I honestly don't have the intention to drag it on, but I was thinking about this statement and it was actually something that interested me and provoked some thought, so I thought I would respond.

Basically - I stand by my statement that odds are purely driven by speculation and not by mathematical probabilities and I will explain why:

The mathematical odds for a coin flip are 50/50. Fact. Now say for some weird absurd reason EVERYONE decides to bet on heads. The bookie stands the chance to lose a lot of money if the outcome turns out to be heads. The bookie needs "the book", meaning bets on both sides to guarantee a certain payout. Bookies don't gamble, they always make no matter which side wins as they need to be covered for any given outcome.

So if everyone decides to bet on heads (not a likely situation but for the sake of example) , they would need to enhance the odds on tails (or reduce the odds on heads) to acquire enough bets on the other side to cover the losses they would incur if heads ends up to win. They need a balance of (not necessarily equal) bets on both sides, no matter what the mathematical probability is to guarantee they are covered for any given outcome.

Also on a side note- thank you for confirming my frustration with the stupidity of srussell0018. That was starting to get annoying.

Last edited by Taipan on May-26-2012 at 10:50

Old Post May-26-2012 10:41  United States
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SYSTEM-J
Ambient Produce Unit



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

quote:
Originally posted by Taipan
I don't even think cliche is the right word for what you are trying to say. I think you mean mainstream - but both descriptions are equally offensive.

So you think Pep will take a sabbatical for a year? How is that any less mainstream? The guy said so himself. At least I'm trying to read between the lines. The timing of his departure and the loyalty of his fans and players - it would be much of a slap in the face to Barca for him to get up and leave his club for the one that has knocked them out of the champions league. But as I stated earlier, my opinion is based on my belief that there is a price for anything, and Chelsea gets what Chelsea wants.


It was your word. I hadn't brought it up in this debate, I merely used it back at you. You aren't really following anything I'm saying, anyway. I'm criticising your opinions not for being common but for confirming largely to common misconceptions that are held by football fans who don't pay a lot of attention to the sport. I've explained where these odds are coming from, and so for you to cite them basically confirms exactly what I said. There are certain common myths that are pervasive, and I hear repeated over and over, and that any knowledgeable football fan gets annoyed of hearing. And another one of them is "Money can buy anyone", when Chelsea have failed to buy a lot of players and managers down the years, Steven Gerrard in 2005 being the most prominent example.

quote:
Basically - I stand by my statement that odds are purely driven by speculation and not by mathematical probabilities and I will explain why:


Bookmaker odds - yes. Mathematical odds - no. You seem to refer to "odds" excusively to mean the former, which is why you're having this messy shitstorm debate that goes nowhere with srussell. It looks very much in this thread like you're presenting bookie odds as precise mathematical probability, when all they really reflect is speculation, and tell us nothing more definitive than a poll of the fans.


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Last edited by SYSTEM-J on May-26-2012 at 12:49

Old Post May-26-2012 12:40  England
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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
It was your word. I hadn't brought it up in this debate


No it wasn't and yes you did.

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Bookmaker odds - yes. Mathematical odds - no. You seem to refer to "odds" excusively to mean the former, which is why you're having this messy shitstorm debate that goes nowhere with srussell. It looks very much in this thread like you're presenting bookie odds as precise mathematical probability, when all they really reflect is speculation, and tell us nothing more definitive than a poll of the fans.


In this context of course I am referring to the former as I presented the screen shot of bookmaker odds in the exact same post. With the screenshot below, how can anyone think I was referring to anything except bookmaker odds?

I am not presenting bookmaker odds as exact probabilities, no. I am presenting them as an indication of estimated probabilities. But the probabilities were not important for my point - my point was he was second favorite to take over as next manager. That's it.

Either way - Roman recently announced that RDM will be the next permanent manager so I suppose you were / are right. Nothing left to argue about.

Old Post May-26-2012 13:11  United States
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srussell0018
Chaostician



Registered: Dec 2006
Location: Blumsberg

Taipan where's that essay?


___________________
quote:
Originally posted by OrangestO
This isn't about physics, this is about waves.

Old Post May-26-2012 14:42  Ireland
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srussell0018
Chaostician



Registered: Dec 2006
Location: Blumsberg

quote:
Originally posted by Taipan
I bet the Heat will win the next 2. Loser has to write a 1000 word essay on why their team sucks. Feeling confident?


quote:
Originally posted by Taipan
Then its a bet? *virtual handshake*


quote:
Originally posted by Taipan
I look forward to seeing if you are a man of your (1000) word(s).



...


quote:
Originally posted by Taipan
Russel , I will be PM you a 1000 word essay in a couple days. Ahd if you want to post it, you can go ahead.


quote:
Originally posted by Taipan
Wow, I'm not quite sure how to respond to your kindness. I'll let you reserve the right to change your mind. But if you don't then thanks, man. Now I'm the one that feels like a vag. And by the way, Congrats on the win, you called it.


___________________
quote:
Originally posted by OrangestO
This isn't about physics, this is about waves.

Old Post May-26-2012 15:00  Ireland
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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by srussell0018
Taipan where's that essay?


I thought you said I didn't have to write it? Why are you bringing it up 1 year later? Are you genuinely upset about something I said? Did I hit a nerve? Remember you are the one who got yourself into this mess , and started arguing bullshit with me out of nowhere. In fact, you could have stated your opinions in a civil manner, but decided to take an offensive position right off the bat. I even warned you that you were about to make yourself look foolish but you went ahead anyways. Now its time to finally be a man and learn to admit when you are wrong - like I clearly did in the quotes above.

I really feel sorry for you, because its so obvious that you are actually upset about this petty argument.

Last edited by Taipan on May-26-2012 at 17:03

Old Post May-26-2012 16:54  United States
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srussell0018
Chaostician



Registered: Dec 2006
Location: Blumsberg

You can PM me that essay anytime.

All of this talk of odds just got me thinking is all. "What are the odds that Taipan will actually write that essay." I'm guessing 2:1


___________________
quote:
Originally posted by OrangestO
This isn't about physics, this is about waves.

Old Post May-26-2012 17:03  Ireland
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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

quote:
Originally posted by srussell0018
You can PM me that essay anytime.

All of this talk of odds just got me thinking is all. "What are the odds that Taipan will actually write that essay." I'm guessing 2:1


Why the change of heart? Did I hurt your feelings?

Old Post May-26-2012 17:06  United States
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srussell0018
Chaostician



Registered: Dec 2006
Location: Blumsberg

Nope, I've just decided it would be a good humbling experience for you. Maybe you can even throw in some nice 12 letter words and work on your vocabulary at the same time. See, I want you to write it for you, not for me.

Aren't you surprised that someone as "mentally handicapped" as I am can remember back that far? All the way back when you made that incredibly well-informed bet? Surely the odds of Miami winning 2 games in a row were fairly low, yet you had the confidence to bet against the favorite.

I just feel like there's a lesson to be learned here.


___________________
quote:
Originally posted by OrangestO
This isn't about physics, this is about waves.

Last edited by srussell0018 on May-26-2012 at 17:13

Old Post May-26-2012 17:08  Ireland
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Taipan
tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2011
Location: New York

I'm starting to understand why nobody likes you.

Old Post May-26-2012 17:10  United States
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