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World Cup 2022 Thread

Yes, it�s that time again! As has become customary at the last three World Cups, I�m going to make a series of wildly inaccurate predictions and assessments of the various teams and post them on a moribund trance forum.

Before we start, it�s worth noting that this is surely the weirdest World Cup ever, taking place in the middle of the European club season in a country so hot they physically couldn�t stage it at any other time of year. Normally players come into the tournament at the end of a long, exhausting club campaign, whereas this time they�ll be only a few months in. So you might expect the energy levels to be higher for most players, but it also remains to be seen how the extreme heat conditions play out in the stadia. Historically, non-European nations have fared better in the hotter climate World Cups, although it�s been 20 years since we last had a non-European winner as the overwhelming financial dominance of European club football has reflected in the quality of international teams. I�m sure Lira will be along with his zany cultural relativism to dispute that narrative, of course, but here�s my Eurocentric take on every team.

(It's also worth noting that the club season is still ongoing right now, so there�s still time for Harry Kane to have a heart attack, Lionel Messi to be arrested for treason and Vladimir Putin to drop a tactical nuclear warhead on the FIFA global headquarters in Zurich.)

Group A

Qatar � They�re the hosts, and only once in recent memory have the host nation failed to at least qualify from their group. Although you might not think of Qatar as a football powerhouse, they won the Asian Cup as recently as 2019, but realistically they have a tough challenge qualifying for the last sixteen.

Ecuador � Currently ranked 44th in the world and without a star player amongst them, I can�t say Ecuador doing much in this tournament.

Senegal � Current African champions, with the world class talents of Sadio Mane up front and Kalidou Koulibaly at centre back as well as a very competent supporting cast, Senegal will be fancying their chances of getting out of the group and could easily cause England problems in the last sixteen if we bump into them.

Netherlands � It�s not the strongest Dutch squad ever, but realistically they should be winning this group comfortably and look a strong bet for the quarter finals.


Group B

England � I�m going to be honest, I think we�re due a tumble back to earth. Our performance in the last two international tournaments has benefitted from a massive amount of luck and very favourable draws. We�re also in abysmal form and some of our key players are having the worst spells of their careers. Expect a nervous group qualification and then some form of humiliating catastrophe shortly after that.

Iran � Unless they rise to the occasion of the first ever Middle Eastern World Cup, I can�t see Iran getting out of this group.

USA � A tough one to judge. They have a few Champions League regulars in the team and American soccerball has come on in leaps over the last twenty years. I expect they�ll be a real nightmare to play against and will probably give England in particular a hell of a game. It�s so hard to call between them and Wales to qualify.

Wales � As above, really. They have one massive big game player in Gareth Bale who�s guaranteed to score at least one 65 yard free kick or ludicrous overhead kick in the tournament. They�ve also got a great team spirit and they�ll be so fired up to beat England. However, I feel their key players are getting a bit old now and the new generation aren�t quite at that quality.

Group C

Argentina � Player-for-player, not the best Argentina side in history. But unlike the fiasco of 2018, they enter this World Cup with a genuinely balanced team that are on a massive unbeaten streak, and they have Lionel Messi in his final World Cup. Messi has been in the form of his life for Argentina in the last year or two. Winning the Copa America last season will finally have relaxed him about the spectre of international underachievement, and there�s an excited murmur going around that this is going to be his World Cup. Semi finalists at the very least.

Saudi Arabia � Whipping boys, I�m afraid to say.

Mexico � It just wouldn�t be a World Cup without Mexico going out in the round of sixteen, would it? I think that�s a safe bet for them this time around as well. They have some decent firepower up front and they�re always a tough opponent, but just not enough genuine quality to go far.

Poland � Ah, Polska. While I�m no longer with a Polish girl, I still retain a soft spot for Europe�s most miserable nation. In Robert Lewandowski they have one of the three or four very best players in the entire tournament right at the sharp end of their team, and there�s a sprinkling of European top flight quality through the rest of the side. And yet, and yet� They crashed and burned so badly in 2018 and I worry they�ll underperform yet again. Prove me wrong, lads.

Group D

France � On paper, France are the most talented squad at the tournament by a mile. Unfortunately, a whole lot of that talent is either injured or terribly out of form at the moment. They also crashed out of the Euros last year in shock style. They should still win this group comfortably and get to the quarter finals at the minimum but I feel the high point has come and gone for this generation.

Australia � Sorry Stu, I can�t see your lot doing much at this tournament. The Aussies used to have a core of players who were regulars in European top flight teams but I�m struggling to name a single player these days.

Denmark � Denmark had a hugely impressive Euros and that was even after Christian Eriksen had a literal heart attack in their first game. They should get out of this group but they could easily run into Argentina in the next round, and it�s hard to see them getting further than that.

Tunisia � They�ll be plucky and they�ll have a good old go, but I think they�re third best in this group and that�s about that.

Group E

Spain � For once we don�t appear to have a genuine Group Of Death at this World Cup, but Group E is probably the closest, with two clear favourites to progress. Spain were really unlucky not to get to the final of the Euros. They�ve come down in the world since the awesome generational peak of 2008-2012 and they lack a world class striker up front but in terms of technical quality and passing football they�re a match for anyone. Potential semi-finalists.

Costa Rica � As above, it�s impossible to see Costa Rica finishing above Spain or Germany so it�ll be an early flight home for them.

Germany � As an Englishman, I�ve very much enjoyed the historically unprecedented shittiness of Germany over the last four years. They stank out the 2018 World Cup and we beat them 2-0 in the Euros last summer, which is something I genuinely never thought I�d see happen. But unfortunately, I can�t see them being that bad again. Although they�re lacking a top quality centre forward to finish off moves (something all historically successful German teams have had, from Gerd Muller to Klinsmann to Klose), the rest of the team looks worryingly awesome and now they�ve finally binned off Joachim Lowe and brought in Hansi Flick, arguably the mastermind of their 2014 triumph, they should be a force again. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Japan � Not a bad Japan side, with loads of players who seem to play in the German Bundesliga for some reason, but they�re unlucky to land in this group and will be going home after three games.

Group F

Belgium � Another team, like France, with shitloads of individual quality but a feel that the squad has passed its peak. They have an easy group and should blast their way out of it, but then they�ll face either Germany or Spain in the last sixteen and will struggle to go further.

Canada � I�m not going to lie, I don�t think I�ve ever seen the Canadian team play a single game. Alphonso Davies is an awesome talent over at Bayern Munich and I hear they�re a plucky team with good spirit. Can they get out of this group? Not sure.

Morocco � I don�t think Morocco are a great team, but in Hakim Ziyech they�ve got a top quality attacking player and in a very easy group I think they have a chance to qualify. Their game against Croatia will be key.

Croatia � Finalists just four years ago, Croatia have gotten real old since then. The likes of Rakitic and Mandzukic are long gone, and the sublime Luka Modric is 37 years old now. There�s still plenty of talent here but they looked a fading force at the Euros a year ago and there�s little sense of exciting young talent coming through to replace them. They�re still second favourites to qualify but will need to watch their step against Morocco.

Group G

Brazil � You don�t need me to tell you Brazil are a pretty decent football team. They have so much quality up front it�s untrue, and while the midfield lacks a bit of magic these days it�s still a Champions League quality unit headed up by the imperious Casemiro. Word on the grapevine is that Brazil are due a good World Cup, and they�re the bookmaker�s favourite for a good reason.

Serbia � The rest of this group is tough to call because you�ve got a lot of solid yet unspectacular teams. Serbia really aren�t a bad team, with good attacking options and solid top flight quality all the way through. They could definitely qualify from the group.

Switzerland � Another team that�s going to be tough to beat, the Swiss dumped France out of the Euros last year and are no joke. They lack outstanding quality anywhere except an ageing Xherdan Shaqiri who�s now decamped to the MLS, so I think they may find themselves going home early� but they also may not.

Cameroon � Cameroon�s most recent game was a 2-0 loss to Uzbekistan. That�s not good. They�ve also called up a team of almost entirely Cameroon-based players for the next game against Jamaica. That�s just weird. Eric Maxim Chupo-Moting may be in the form of his life for Bayern Munich but otherwise they�re severely lacking star power and while they�re not radically worse than Serbia or Switzerland, they�re the most obvious candidate for an early ticket home.

Group H

Portugal � On paper, Portugal have got bags of talent. On paper. Cristiano Ronaldo is officially the highest scoring player in footballing history, but he�s also in the very worst form of his entire career at Man United, and there�s a lingering sense he just doesn�t work well alongside Bruno Fernandes, who for me is the real talent of this generation. They should top this group and if their talent clicks they could conceivably win the entire tournament, but I have a feeling it won�t, and they won�t.

Ghana � It�s not a vintage crop of African teams this time out, but aside from Senegal I think Ghana are the best of the bunch. They�re got a spine of Premier League players headed up by Arsenal�s Thomas Partey, but they�re unlucky to find themselves in quite a tough group. In Morocco�s group I think they�d definitely qualify. I�m not so confident here.

Uruguay � Along with Croatia, Uruguay continue to be one of the most consistent over-achievers in world football relative to population size. Sadly, their two major talents of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani are now older than the hills themselves and the new generation coming through aren�t quite there yet. Still, Fedde Valverde is a regular for Real Madrid and Darwen Nunez is a hilariously raw �75 million superstar striker at Liverpool, and they have Champions League quality scattered throughout. They should qualify from this group and could have an easy passage to the quarter finals.

South Korea � Poor old South Korea. And poor old Son Heung-min, one of the most talented Asian players of all time who�s just fractured his eye socket weeks before the tournament begins. He�s now facing a race against time to recover. With him, they could make this group genuinely complicated. Without him, they are going to struggle.

I�ve always cheered for Poland but knowing they fucking suck isn�t very fun. Canada�s run to the WC has been great, will be behind them this time around. The most joy comes from watching Italy and Portugal lose, though.

Injuries certainly haven't helped England, either, but loads of players from other countries in the EPL have also fallen victim to that fate. Gutted for Reece, specifically. Also don't see England going far.

I'm definitely cheering for the Canadians - love to see them (and the US) back in it. Both have an excellent opportunity to surprise and reach the round of 16.

I also have to cheer for Poland being that I'm Polish and all, but yes, it's not very fun. They never maximize their potential and always disappoint. They really are a miserable watch.

It's nice all the countries I'm cheering for are in different groups at least.

That said, I'm betting on Argentina to win it. They're the hottest team entering the tournament, and I think the stars will finally align for Mr. Messi.

On that note, is anyone up for playing World Cup fantasy? I'd set up a league if enough people want to give it a go.

This time, I'm gonna try to ignore this whole deal. Thousands of slaves dead to have a football tournament in a morally backward shithole country. The fact that they have to cool the stadiums with massive air conditioners while EU is going through the worst energy crisis in its history just adds insult to injury. In an era, when even the most greedy organizations are at least making the face of trying to be greener, the whole ordeal just seems totally disconnected from reality.

Fuck this.

You're absolutely right of course and I wouldn't blame anyone for boycotting this tournament. Unfortunately, it's going to happen regardless and while my enthusiasm will be dampened (especially if England flop nice and early), it's going to be hard to avoid.

Sucks, doesn't it. I've been torn about whether to watch. The closer we get to kickoff and the more I learn, the less I'm interested in doing so. If only the players would decide for us and refuse to play in protest. Like J said, though, it'll be hard to avoid. I'll likely watch and bitch about the world a little more than usual.

I guess I was having a shitty night and the post went a little overboard. In the morning I've remembered that I actually think that the worst kind of people are the ones who make someone else feel bad for being excited for something. So I apologize for that. I'm still trying to ignore the tournament but I certainly dont hold it against anyone to be excited about it. Hell, few of my best friends are football fanatics

Believe me, of all the things people have said to me on this forum over the last 19 years, that comment is low down on the list of things that might make me feel bad.

I understand the issues around this World Cup and considered writing about them in my opening spiel, but the post was going to be long enough anyway. And in the run up to this tournament, I have been wondering if I can actually be bothered watching it. It's worth noting that FIFA and the World Cup have been wracked with corruption for decades. There were riots and public unrest before Brazil 2014 because of anger at the corruption and waste of public money, and there were worker deaths in constructing the stadia (albeit on a much smaller scale than Qatar). Russia 2018 took place in a country with terrible press freedom and human rights records and they were widely considered to have bribed FIFA into awarding them the tournament. Qatar 2022 is essentially the logical conclusion of a long-running fiasco, which is why we've got this bizarre winter World Cup in a tiny country that is culturally hostile to most of the values the sponsors at least pretend they uphold, and which has essentially utilised modern day slave labour to construct all the infrastructure it needs to host a sporting tournament.

So again, it's hard to say I'm anywhere near as excited for this World Cup as I have been in the past, but as we've got closer to the date I've realised that it's going to happen anyway, it's going to dominate global media and it's going to pause the entire footballing calendar in my country and everywhere else. I could politely refuse all the invitations from friends to watch the games and just attempt to ignore it, but ultimately the damn thing is happening, the poor bastards from Bangladesh and Pakistan who died aren't going to come back to life, and if anything Qatar has gone from being a country nobody could find on a map to being the most criticised nation on Earth over the last few years (right up until Putin went "Hold my beer", that is).

I think the general attitude of most people is less celebration and more "Let's just get this damn thing over with".

Poor humour: if we don�t watch the slaves would have died for nothing

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I think the general attitude of most people is less celebration and more "Let's just get this damn thing over with".

For most western proles that's probably more to do with the fact that the tourny isn't taking place during the summer (beer, hot temps, summer hols, beer) rather than where it takes place and the pertinent backgrounds.

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

So, it's come full circle. My very first post on TA was about me supporting South Korea back in Brazil... 20 years later, I think Brazil has a very good shot while I'm in South Korea

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Historically, non-European nations have fared better in the hotter climate World Cups, although it�s been 20 years since we last had a non-European winner as the overwhelming financial dominance of European club football has reflected in the quality of international teams. I�m sure Lira will be along with his zany cultural relativism to dispute that narrative, of course, but here�s my Eurocentric take on every team

Actually, we agree this time around

As a matter of fact, I'm still crunching them numbers because the Elo Ratings, bookies, and the EA prediction all seem to foresee an all-(South)American final, and that's only happened twice before - in South America, when Uruguay beat us (1950) and Argentina (1930). Once I get some free time and find a way to blame bookmakers for my wrong predictions, I'll post what I think the most likely outcome will be

It's not that I'm boycotting the tournament, but until now I don't feel any excitement at all. I have little expectations of our team and if Depay hasn't recovered well from his injury it will be even less, although the group phase shouldn't be an issue.

Jack's analysis doesn't increase the excitement a lot as I think it could be spot on. Hopefully there will be some nice surprises and the airco's work really well.

All right, hooray for procrastination! I don't really have much time to write about every team as Jack did, so I'll do something completely reckless for good fun: I'll be even bolder and try to predict the results just so we can all laugh at my mistakes later on

Here's what I'll be taking into account:

• Elo Rating: As a rule of thumb, semifinalists tend to come from the top 10 ranked countries. It's the basis for the FIFA Ranking without all the tinkering that doesn't seem to improve prediction rates. There have been exceptions, such as Croatia in 2018 and Uruguay in 2010, but it's often bang on the money - in 2014, the only semifinalist that wasn't in the top 4 prior to the competition (the Netherlands) was ranked fifth.
  
• EA Predictions: Not unlike the traditional number crunching methods, this is what happens when you let a computer do the maths. It's picked the winner three times in a row, but it only did a better job than ELO at picking the other semifinalists in 2018.
  
• Bookmakers' Odds: They're literally making money out of this, so whenever the data from the previous two methods look conflicting, I'll trust the professional number crunchers.

Qatar does not recognize same sex marriage.

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Australia � Sorry Stu, I can�t see your lot doing much at this tournament. The Aussies used to have a core of players who were regulars in European top flight teams but I�m struggling to name a single player these days.

No need for apologies, Jack. Australia is not exactly a powerhouse when it comes to football/soccer. It is not a mainstream sport here, even vaguely. When it comes to the World Cup, we are honestly happy to have just qualified!

Re: Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

quote:

Originally posted by Trance-M It's not that I'm boycotting the tournament, but until now I don't feel any excitement at all. I have little expectations of our team and if Depay hasn't recovered well from his injury it will be even less, although the group phase shouldn't be an issue.

I always hope it's the Netherlands' turn to lift the trophy. Only the Dutch and the Swedes have been this many times in the top 4 and never won a title.

If the Dutch play our team, I'll definitely be happy no matter who wins. Speaking of which...

quote:

Originally posted by Sushipunk When it comes to the World Cup, we are honestly happy to have just qualified!

This is how I see Stu since France and Australia ended up in the same group:

Backflipped. Alcohol ban, lol.

Hearing reports now Qatar tried to bribe Ecuador in 1st match.

quote:

Originally posted by LoveHate Hearing reports now Qatar tried to bribe Ecuador in 1st match.

The Ecuadorian coach says it's fake news. Now, this match isn't nearly as lopsided as you'd have imagined: Because Qatar recruited a slightly more capable squad of players born abroad, 538 says the odds of Ecuador not winning (that is, losing or drawing) are about the same as Ecuador beating the hosts. Given the court advantage and the 96-year long winning streak for hosts in an opening mach, a Qatari win would be... happenable. Possible, even. Just not more likely than a coin toss. Now that Ecuador have scored, Qatar are hopeless.

I won't judge anyone hoping for a surprise aloha from Doha though. I myself bit the bullet and decided to get tickets to the FIFA fan festival here in Seoul in the hopes I can party with the natives in case South Korea may hold back Ghana - an even unlikelier outcome. But, Anfisa Letyago will be playing after the match, so if Son Heung-min won't save the night, she will.

Edit: Ecuador don't really look sold, unless Qatar promised the payment in beer, left the fans without any, and the players are too drunk to remember the agreement in the first place

Edit: Upon further inspection, I guess it should also be said that, although hosts occasionally played the opening match before 2002, such as Brazil in 1950, it only became the rule in 2006. For a while it was the defending champions that played the opening match instead, and back then both France (once) and Argentina (twice) failed to win against football powerhouses such as Senegal and Cameroon

That's quite a unique achievement for Iran, heh:

▲ Scored as many goals as Belgium against England in the last World Cup
▼ Yet conceded three times as many

Hup hup Holland now though, I'll always have a soft spot for them ♥

I didn't get to watch the game as I was out at a work meeting, but I'm pleasantly surprised we put Iran to the sword so comprehensively. Doesn't look like there were any nerves, and the pre-tournament form has proven completely irrelevant. Based on the Wales - USA game, which is the only thing I've watched so far at this tournament, both of those teams are the very definition of "perspiration rather than inspiration", so our passage out of the group might be smoother than I first thought. Also, now that Senegal have lost Sadio Mane, our potential Last 16 opponents look less daunting too.

You guys don't get the day off on the World Cup?

[Shocked in Brazilian]

Jokes aside, is this just us? I thought most participating countries stopped during the competition. I can't compare with South Korea because the games start around 10 PM, so no one would be working anyway. Back home though, my university goes as far as declaring the match days "bank holidays" starting two hours prior to kick-off, and it is be unthinkable to do anything at all during the 90 minutes the game is on. Groceries? Nope. Classes? Noper. Work? Nopest.

Anyway, speaking of shock and awe at England, I'm just glad the number crunchers from Oxford are siding with me this time around:



Apparently I switched Portugal and Uruguay in the group stage and forgot to keep my word in the knockout stage though. The only difference between the Oxgeeks an me is that I see France beating Belgium, but they see Lukaku's team coming out on top. So, if I make a fool of myself, I'm in good company

Lira: croquettes au chicken surely can't be right

As someone who likes maths, I'm disappointed I couldn't see the Saudi upset coming. As a Brazilian, I'm loving every minute of it

quote:

Originally posted by Midlothian Lira: croquettes au chicken surely can't be right

What do you mean? It's from Colonel Richard D. Sanders' KFX commercials, it's windowlickin' good

Ps.: In case the screen is too small for you to see my avatar and get the reference, KFC Spain posted a picture of Colonel Sanders as Aphex Twin November last year. To this day, no one knows what on earth KFC's social media executives had in mind, but I approve of their message.

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