TranceAddict Forums (www.tranceaddict.com/forums)
- Chill Out Room
-- 2024 US Election Thread? 2024 US Election Thread
Pages (5): [1] 2 3 4 5 »

2024 US Election Thread? 2024 US Election Thread

Go on then, let's do it. Who do we think is going to win? What will happen if Trump gets in? What will happen if Trump doesn't get in?

Personally, I've been hoping that acclaimed election predictor Allan Lichtman continues his remarkable streak, because the polls themselves are too tight to mention.

I�m not sure how it�s become acceptable to let a human goiter have any sort of platform, let alone run for president. Idk, you see bat shit nutters like alohastar and it makes sense

My prediction is Harris, but not by much obviously. I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse, but I hope that as a certain portion of Trump supporters have doubled down on Trump, some have come to their senses as they've learned more and more of how dangerous this man really is and made the "compromise" to vote Democrat this time. Then again, it seems Trump's supporters believe almost anything that comes out of his mouth. 70% of Trump supporters believe inflation is at its highest rate ever, 43% believe it is legal to kill a baby after birth in some states. Simply unbelievable numbers. With this in mind, I actually probably shouldn't place too much trust in many of his voters having turned on him, but I simply can not believe that a critical amount of people would willingly vote for him. It's just so immensely mind-boggling. I mean his supporters must know most of the stuff he spouts is simply made-up, and they only vote for him because they think they're going to benefit from his presidency, right? If a movie portrayed this amount of people believing the claim you'd consider the number unrealistically high.

If Trump loses, he is certainly going to whip his forces into a frenzy and have them do something crazy, but what, I can't even begin to guess. I think something similar to January sixth is certainly possible.

If Trump wins.. What I've read about JD Vance and the company he keeps, you'd think it's gonna be Handmaid's Tale in the US very soon, but I think a four-year-long farce is more probable. I don't know how well Putin actually has Trump in his pocket, but I'd think Ukraine would be getting a lot less help from the US, and I wouldn't rule out Trump pressuring European countries to halt their aid to Ukraine either. Musk would probably play some sort of a role in his presidency, somehow making an even bigger ass of himself than he has until now. I'd expect lots of medium-sized protests, but nowhere close to anything that could threaten Trump's presidency. If there's something positive about him possibly winning for me, it's that the fears of USA's role in NATO diminishing will hopefully force more European countries to up their defense spending and wake up from their decades-long dream of a peaceful world.

I'm hoping for Harris's win, but I don't understand why her campaign seems to choose such middle-class-alienating shows for her rallies. I'm watching her rally in Milwaukee, and it's been something like one and a half hours of rap with Cardi B now finally delivering something resembling a speech. The problem is I can't understand half of the things she's saying. I can imagine how off-putting a show like this is to someone who's not fond of modern "hip-hop" at all, especially if it's an ex-Trump supporter. Hasn't Harris already pretty much secured "the black vote" without any of this?

after 2016 i will never underestimate the stupidity of americans again. trump is so unfit for office it's disgusting and yes, i think people who vote for him are garbage.

I've a suite inspection on the same day. Think I'll be more distracted by the outcome of that. Never underestimate a landlord's ability to evict you for some slight infraction all because they want you out so they can jack the suite's rent 500%.

Seriously tho', wasn't it Churchill who said you can count on Americans to do the right thing after they've exhausted all other options? I'm not entirely convinced America has exhausted all other options.

quote:

Originally posted by JEO I'm hoping for Harris's win, but I don't understand why her campaign seems to choose such middle-class-alienating shows for her rallies. I'm watching her rally in Milwaukee, and it's been something like one and a half hours of rap with Cardi B now finally delivering something resembling a speech. The problem is I can't understand half of the things she's saying. I can imagine how off-putting a show like this is to someone who's not fond of modern "hip-hop" at all, especially if it's an ex-Trump supporter. Hasn't Harris already pretty much secured "the black vote" without any of this?

You're looking at this from a pretty short sighted viewpoint. She's not after the black vote, she's after the young vote. It's why the language and rhetoric is delivered in a way that is attractive to Gen Z and younger Millennials. Most liberals don't really care, and most conservatives weren't really going to vote for her anyway. She's after the kids who are willing to somehow turn off TikTok for 15 minutes to go vote, which quite honestly, isn't very many. From what I gather, the percentages of young voters in the early voting polls is once again, staggeringly poor.

Do you have a clip or example of what you're talking about, JEO? The YouTube algorithm has shown me a few clips of Harris' rallies and it all looks pretty straightforward stuff to me.

You have to wonder how much racism and misogyny are going to hamper her. Is America ready for a non-white woman as president? Obama was speaking at a rally recently and he called out black men for their relatively low polling for Harris compared to for him - arguing that too many black men had a problem with a woman being in charge of them.

Here's the whole Milwaukee show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCsk2aFv9A4

It's obviously not a full 1.5 hours of rap, but it is the only type of live performance there was, aside from speeches. The first performance starts around 19 minutes. Then there's a couple of speeches, and at 47 minutes there's another performance which is rap, then again rap at 1 hour 3 minutes. Then Cardi B steps in at 1 hour and 36 minutes. I also think there's rap playing between speeches and performances in the venue, but in many parts there's placeholder music in the stream due to copyright.

Like I said, I don't really have my finger on the pulse and have a hard time assessing any of it since I pretty much only see the US through the news and YouTube. I didn't consider enough the possibility that she's after the youngest and first-time voters, but now that ziptnf said it, and I paid attention to it more, it seems pretty obvious. I guess I would myself have preferred something along the lines of Maya Angelou reciting a poem at Clinton's inauguration or, if there had to be a lot of rap, maybe someone like like Joey Bada$$. But if this is what the kids like, then so be it.

If the lines really are this dead set, and there's almost no chance of alienating any existing voters, consider my worries those of an out-of-touch outsider.

US political rallies always look absolutely insane, as far as I can tell. I've no idea how fully or widely they're broadcast beyond the people in the arena, but I doubt the musical interludes will make the nightly news.

I'm genuinely confused as to how JEO is so hung up on Democrats playing too much rap at their rallies. If you're wondering about the content of the other side's rallies, look no further:

Donald Trump awkwardly swaying to music from his playlist for 40 minutes instead of answering questions, despite his staff trying to communicate with him through his teleprompter to finish the Q&A

Trump blowing the microphone

Random comedians insulting entire countries and ethnicities in Madison Square Garden

Elon Musk repeatedly lying and jumping around like a maniac on stage

Trump insisting that he's going to 'protect women, whether they like it or not'

And that's just within the last month.

Jack is right- if Harris loses, racism and misogyny wins. This time, it has nothing to do with policy. Voting for Trump is to vote for an elderly con man who was convicted of 34 felonies, photographed frequently with Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, who bankrupted a casino, sold American secrets to Russia, and is well known for having never paid back anyone who does a job for him. He's a xenophobic wannabe fascist who has no plan other than to dismantle American democracy. He's only running to keep himself out of jail, because he found a loophole in the system. I hope he loses and the neo-conservative MAGA movement dies in its sleep.

To those outside of the US? How do we (Americans) look? Is it laughable? Do we look like idiots? Do you feel for sorry for us?

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal To those outside of the US? How do we (Americans) look? Is it laughable? Do we look like idiots? Do you feel for sorry for us?

I am kind of glad I am outside the US for a bit, i feel sorry for y'all. And I don't see anything getting better anytime soon.

I did get my vote in though

quote:

Originally posted by ziptnf I'm genuinely confused as to how JEO is so hung up on Democrats playing too much rap at their rallies.

I didn't exactly say it's too much rap for me or in general, although I would have chosen artists with more substance. I was wondering how it goes with people who are or were thinking of switching from Trump to Harris at the last moment, who probably aren't big fans of e.g. Cardi B. I didn't defend Trump, the Republicans, or Trump's rallies, and I'm very much aware of what Trump's been up to in front of his audience, as I've had most of his rallies on for the past weeks while working. I'm slightly confused as to why you suddenly became so defensive, but maybe it's better if I leave the commentary to those who know what's really going on.

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal To those outside of the US? How do we (Americans) look? Is it laughable? Do we look like idiots? Do you feel for sorry for us?

I may have been a bit too focused on the circus-like rallies instead of.. I don't know what, but the run-up to the election seems somewhat lacking in substance. There have only been three debates, right? One between Biden and Trump, one between Walz and Vance, and one between Harris and Trump*. Other than that it's just rallies and the same more or less toxic rhetoric against each other. A messy mixture of some of the world's biggest podcasters and richest people trying to twist the narrative in one direction or another. Joe Rogan alone probably solidified the intentions of hundreds of thousands of young men to vote for Trump with his Kind of Objective� interview. Elon Musk literally tried to buy (and I guess succeeded to an extent?) votes for Trump and is brazenly using Twitter as a platform to support Trump. People grow too big in the US.

You don't look like idiots at all, but from what I've witnessed on this forum and elsewhere online between US citizens, it usually doesn't take more than three sentences for the hostility to start between those with opposing viewpoints, which certainly makes you look like you've been very succesfully divided by "someone" (i.e. China, Russia, Iran). You could go into all kinds of detail on how and why a big part of the country's population is overly susceptible to Trump's influence, but I don't exactly see the other side trying to win back any of the hearts or minds in these arguments either. I know it's frustrating to talk to them, but I'm afraid you're pretty much stuck with those kinds of people unless you reform your country on a level that feels unrealistic even to complete political dilettantes like me. So no, not idiots. Rather victims.

*In contrast, we had 14 presidential debates before our previous presidential election, 8 debates between party leaders before our parliamentary election, with possibly tens of less formal debates on podcasts and different venues, and one or two official debates for minor/fringe parties who basically aren't expected to get any seats in parliament. As far as I can tell, no one called anyone a low-IQ individual or a loser.

quote:

Originally posted by JEO I didn't exactly say it's too much rap for me or in general, although I would have chosen artists with more substance. I was wondering how it goes with people who are or were thinking of switching from Trump to Harris at the last moment, who probably aren't big fans of e.g. Cardi B. I didn't defend Trump, the Republicans, or Trump's rallies, and I'm very much aware of what Trump's been up to in front of his audience, as I've had most of his rallies on for the past weeks while working. I'm slightly confused as to why you suddenly became so defensive, but maybe it's better if I leave the commentary to those who know what's really going on.

Hey man, you're not new here are you? Defensive is my middle name

I'm just making it a point that you're calling to attention something that an extremely, extremely small percentage of people actually care about. Perhaps in the past, when I was a teenager, I definitely would have been attracted to poetry recited by civil rights activists. But it's a different time now, and you gotta relate. GOP has no idea how to do this, from a broad appeal perspective. They know where their bread is buttered, and this time around, they have added an extra heaping lump of lard.

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal To those outside of the US? How do we (Americans) look? Is it laughable? Do we look like idiots? Do you feel for sorry for us?

Oh yes. JEO is just being polite. Your entire country looks absolutely insane. You have a mainstream political party claiming the other side is creating artificial hurricanes and sending them to red states. And people are sending death threats to meteorologists as a result. There's no real looking past that.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Oh yes. JEO is just being polite. Your entire country looks absolutely insane. You have a mainstream political party claiming the other side is creating artificial hurricanes and sending them to red states. And people are sending death threats to meteorologists as a result. There's no real looking past that.

It's embarrassing.

quote:

Originally posted by ziptnf Hey man, you're not new here are you? Defensive is my middle name I'm just making it a point that you're calling to attention something that an extremely, extremely small percentage of people actually care about. Perhaps in the past, when I was a teenager, I definitely would have been attracted to poetry recited by civil rights activists. But it's a different time now, and you gotta relate. GOP has no idea how to do this, from a broad appeal perspective. They know where their bread is buttered, and this time around, they have added an extra heaping lump of lard.

Yeah I assumed the biggest goal of Harris's campaign would be to potentially swing a substantial amount of Trump voters to vote Democrat, and saw the Milwaukee show especially as not very appealing to such potential swingers, but as I said, it's very difficult for me to assess what matters and what doesn't from this side of the pond. I don't think I've ever had a conversation longer than a few minutes with a Trump voter, so I'm left with the image that something like rap is just a big no-no to most of them, and would matter in this context. I'm positively surprised if it isn't alienating to them. And this is all with the assumption that the rallies themselves matter, since they seem to be the main means of campaigning.

And while I'm not against rap at a political rally per se, I can't with a clear conscience say that I'm not disappointed in modern hip-hop. I grew up with rap that, even if not always explicitly so, still almost always carried an anti-establishment undertone to some extent.

I have a different take on this. I don't think Harris and Trump are trying to convert each other's diehards. Elections are won on swing states and swing voters. Hardcore MAGA Trump fans will obviously hate every single thing about a Democratic rally and I don't think Harris is even trying to appeal to that demographic. Her whole shtick has been "We're normal, reasonable people", emphasising things like abortion rights. She's trying to win the average, suburban, politically disengaged voter by portraying Trump as extreme. And the GOP are doing the same in reverse by painting the Democrats as lunatic wokeists letting immigration run wild while putting trans people above unborn babies and blah blah blah. So the musical choices at a Democratic rally aren't about appealing to Trump votes either.

But here's the kicker: I don't fully agree with Nick either. I don't necessarily think this stuff is about mobilising apathetic Gen Z either. As far as I can tell from the outside, political rallies are mainly about energising the core internal party power base, not winning over floating voters. I don't think anyone's paying to sit in an arena for two hours and listen to a politician proselytise unless they're already fully on board. The Democrats need the hardcore campaigners to enact their ground game for them: knocking on doors, handing out pamphlets, organising at local level. So the rallies are about firing up the people who are already fully committed to the cause, to get them out there believing they have positive momentum. Trump's power base are the MAGA lunatics. I suspect Harris' power base looks more like young non-white women. And I suspect that has a lot to do with the artists they have perform at these things.

Actually, I think white women will be mobilized too. It seems like this go round, the female vote is going to make a big difference. Early polling is showing women coming out in droves. It seems like Harris is favored in a lot of areas. It will take a heroic effort from white men in swing states to win it for Trump.

Take polls with whatever boulder of sodium carbonate you must, but the one out of Iowa this past weekend has turned a LOT of heads. Here's a good breakdown of it:

Wrong mineral, kid

quote:

Originally posted by planetaryplayer Wrong mineral, kid

Ah, so you're right. Should be BIcarbonate! Helpful for those election ulcers.

quote:

Originally posted by Sykonee Ah, so you're right. Should be BIcarbonate! Helpful for those election ulcers.

FYI, I have no idea what I was talking about

At 7:41PM PST (west coast time), Trump leads 207 to 91. They haven't counted the western (mostly Blue) state results yet but whoever gets to 270 wins.

Well.. I think I was too hopeful.

Powered by: vBulletin
Copyright © 2000-2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.