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atbell
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: May 2007
Location: Toronto, Canada

quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
If I was a high net-worth individual in Venezuala, I'de either move or place my money in offshore accounts.


If you were a high net-worth individual in Venezuala 5 years ago you'd have done that. Now I'm betting that the only people who have high net worth are those who are friends of the regime ... I mean people, friends of the people.

Old Post Sep-04-2007 01:08  Canada
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Krypton
83.798 g/6.022x10^23



Registered: Nov 2003
Location: Texas

quote:
Originally posted by atbell
If you were a high net-worth individual in Venezuala 5 years ago you'd have done that. Now I'm betting that the only people who have high net worth are those who are friends of the regime ... I mean people, friends of the people.


And Castro claims not to be a millionaire.

Come on Mr. Castro. We're not that stupid.


___________________

Old Post Sep-04-2007 01:15  Korea-Democratic Peoples Republic
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Zharen
Put down the plate



Registered: Mar 2003
Location: On a spit of sand we call Earth

quote:
Originally posted by George Smiley
He wants to go to war with us now!!!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/ne...icle2368707.ece

Probably rhetoric to curry favour in Argentina where his ally is off to elections shortly, he also has designs for some kind of South American union (EU-style) with Argentina being his major target (he gave them a lot of money recently for something as I recall)

As for the Falklands, well, perhaps a vote amongst the population would be a better option than war (with Britain still winning!)


LOL, Britain would mess Venezuela up so bad if it ever did come to war. But it's obviously just a political ploy to kiss Argentina's ass as you said. Still, the little man's got some balls to stand up to the Old Empire like that.

Old Post Sep-04-2007 01:51  United States
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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London

quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
If I was a high net-worth individual in Venezuala, I'de either move or place my money in offshore accounts.

And you would have preferred the regime that came before Chavez?!

Old Post Sep-04-2007 08:10  England
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Shakka
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2003
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
If I was a high net-worth individual in Venezuala, I'de either move or place my money in offshore accounts.


Many of them are. And I thought the article I posted a page or two back went completely ignored!

Old Post Sep-04-2007 11:32  United States
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Shakka
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2003
Location:

Here's a fresh one just in case...

quote:
Chavez Economy Unravels as Venezuela Currency Weakens
2007-09-03 14:59 (New York)


(Adds today's bolivar price in third paragraph.)

By Alex Kennedy and Matthew Walter
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Hugo Chavez's economy is starting to
unravel in the currency market.
While Venezuela earns record proceeds from oil exports,
consumers face shortages of meat, flour and cooking oil. Annual
inflation has risen to 16 percent, the highest in Latin America,
as President Chavez tripled government spending in four years.
Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips are pulling out after Chavez
demanded they cede control of joint venture projects.
The currency, the bolivar, has tumbled 28 percent this year
to 4,750 per dollar on the black market, the only place it trades
freely because of government controls on foreign exchange. That's
less than half the official rate of 2,150 set in 2005. Chavez may
have to devalue the bolivar to reduce the gap and increase oil
proceeds that make up half the state's revenue.
``This has been the worst managed oil boom in Venezuela's
history,'' said Ricardo Hausmann, a former government planning
minister who now teaches economics at Harvard University in
Cambridge, Massachusetts. ``A devaluation is a foregone
conclusion. The only question is when.''
Chavez will devalue the bolivar 14 percent in the first
quarter of 2008 after he introduces a new currency on Jan. 1 that
will lop three zeros off all denominations, according to JPMorgan
Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, and Merrill Lynch &
Co., the biggest brokerage firm.
The new currency, to be called the strong bolivar, will have
an exchange rate of 2.15 per dollar, the equivalent of today's
rate, Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas said last week. Analysts
forecast the official rate will decline 13 percent by the end of
2008, according to the median of nine estimates in a Bloomberg
survey.

Healthcare, Housing

``We're not going to devalue no matter how much they
pressure us,'' Cabezas told reporters in Caracas on Aug. 31.
``The so-called parallel market doesn't dictate our fiscal,
exchange or monetary policies.''
Chavez, an ally of Cuban President Fidel Castro who calls
capitalism ``evil,'' weakened the currency 11 percent in 2005. He
imposed restrictions on foreign exchange in 2003 to halt capital
flight that has driven down the bolivar more than 70 percent
since he took office in 1999.
A devaluation would give the government more bolivars from
its oil export tax receipts, helping fund Chavez's policies to
provide free healthcare, housing and discounted food to millions
of Venezuelans. The government says social programs helped cut
the poverty rate to 34 percent in the first half of 2006 from 49
percent eight years earlier.
Oil, which has risen 155 percent in the past five years,
accounts for about 90 percent of Venezuela's exports. The country
is the fifth-biggest member in the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries.

Trips to Curacao

As the gap between the official exchange rate and the black
market rate has increased, so has the incentive to exploit rules,
such as a regulation that allows people to spend $5,000 a year on
their credit cards while traveling abroad.
Some Venezuelans travel to nearby Curacao, where they buy
$5,000 of casino poker chips with their credit cards, exchange
the chips for cash and then sell the dollars in the black market
back in Caracas.
``People are invoking their right to circumvent what are
very, very stiff controls,'' said Alberto Ramos, senior Latin
America economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.
The foreign exchange regulations are part of the controls
that Chavez, 53, has created in his ``march to socialism.'' The
government sets retail prices on hundreds of consumer products
and fixes both the maximum rate at which banks can lend and the
minimum interest they can pay depositors.
Chavez, who is seeking to end presidential term limits, has
taken $17 billion of foreign reserves from the central bank and
expropriated dozens of farms that he deemed underutilized.

Exxon, ConocoPhillips

He nationalized Venezuela's biggest private electric and
telephone utilities and took majority stakes in oil projects
owned by Exxon, the world's largest producer, and ConocoPhillips,
the third-biggest in the U.S. Foreign direct investment was a
negative $881 million in the first half as foreign companies
pulled out money.
Chavez terminated the broadcast license of the country's
most-watched television network in May, sparking weeks of student
protests. He has threatened to take over cement makers,
hospitals, banks, supermarkets and butcher shops, saying they
weren't obeying price controls.
``It's like our director of marketing, our director of
sales, our director of manufacturing is President Chavez,'' said
Edgar Contreras, who runs international operations at Molinos
Nacionales CA, a Caracas-based food manufacturer that employs
1,500 people. ``We can't go on like this.''

`Fantasy Prices'

Contreras called the government-set prices on many products
``fantasy prices'' that are below production costs. Items
including milk, chicken, coffee and flour have disappeared from
store shelves in Caracas at times this year because companies
refused to sell at a loss.
The government has responded by giving importers more
dollars at the official exchange rate. Imports soared 43 percent
in the first half to a record $20 billion after tripling in the
previous three years.
The country's current account surplus fell almost in half to
$8.8 billion in the first half even as near-record high oil
prices buoyed exports. Crude oil for October delivery rose 4.2
percent last week to $74.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.
``The growth in imports is so out of whack that it's choking
off the local sector,'' said Teodoro Petkoff, a former government
planning minister who now publishes opposition tabloid Tal Cual
in Caracas. ``The engine of growth isn't the real economy. It's
the government.''

`House of Cards'

While the rise in government spending fueled economic growth
of 9 percent in the first half, output in five of 16
manufacturing industries shrank from January to May, according to
the central bank.
Harvard's Hausmann said the growth in public spending has
been so rapid that the government needs oil prices to keep rising
to hold its deficit in check. He estimates the public sector
deficit will equal about 5 percent of gross domestic product this
year. The Finance Ministry forecasts the public sector will post
a balanced budget this year, Public Credit Director Luis Davila
said last month.
``For the macroeconomic house of cards not to come crashing
down, the price of oil has to go up at double digit growth
rates,'' Hausmann said. ``If oil stays at $70, they're going to
hit the wall.''

--With reporting by Theresa Bradley in New York. Editor:
Papadopoulos .

Old Post Sep-04-2007 13:56  United States
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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London

Erm a bad economy does not equal dictatorship does it?

In fact, the economic situation of Venezuela is completely exclusive to whether or not Venezuela is a dictatorship

Old Post Sep-04-2007 14:19  England
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Fir3start3r
Armin Acolyte



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Toronto, ON, Canada

quote:
Originally posted by George Smiley
Erm a bad economy does not equal dictatorship does it?

In fact, the economic situation of Venezuela is completely exclusive to whether or not Venezuela is a dictatorship


Not after he's nationalized everything...


___________________
"...End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path...one that we all must take.
The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all change to silver glass...and then you see it...
...white shores...and beyond...the far green country under a swift sunrise."

Old Post Sep-04-2007 17:31  Canada
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Shakka
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2003
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by George Smiley
Erm a bad economy does not equal dictatorship does it?

In fact, the economic situation of Venezuela is completely exclusive to whether or not Venezuela is a dictatorship


I don't think you're looking at it correctly. At least that statement seems backwards. The dictator (substitute "horrible official") is largely responsible for the worsening economy and its woes. Chavez leadership goes hand-in-hand with Venezuela's shitty economic problems because he has helped to fuel them.

Old Post Sep-04-2007 17:42  United States
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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London

quote:
Originally posted by Shakka
I don't think you're looking at it correctly. At least that statement seems backwards. The dictator (substitute "horrible official") is largely responsible for the worsening economy and its woes. Chavez leadership goes hand-in-hand with Venezuela's shitty economic problems because he has helped to fuel them.

No I'm looking at it perfectly. Every country in the world has had bad economic periods - look at the USA in the 30s or the UK in the 90s - were either of them considered dictatorships by anyone? No. Economic performance never has and never will be a marker of dictatorship. Sure the government of the day is responsible for the economy, but to suggest that poor economic performances = dictatorship is opportunist at best, and stupid at worst...

Old Post Sep-04-2007 21:57  England
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Shakka
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2003
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by George Smiley
No I'm looking at it perfectly. Every country in the world has had bad economic periods - look at the USA in the 30s or the UK in the 90s - were either of them considered dictatorships by anyone? No.


Were those "bad" economic periods that you speak of the result of the actions of their leadership? No. Certainly not directly so. I don't disagree that poor economic conditions can arise in any system given the proper conditions. Take a look at the U.S. now--it's teetering on recession, but that's not the argument being made here.

quote:
Economic performance never has and never will be a marker of dictatorship. Sure the government of the day is responsible for the economy, but to suggest that poor economic performances = dictatorship is opportunist at best, and stupid at worst...


And again, that's not the argument that I am making (and I don't think that's the way others have been arguing it unless I have missed something). Insofar as Venezuela goes, both articles do a pretty good job of explaining how Chavez is both a quasi-dictator, how his policies are bankrupting his country, and as a result why the shitty economic conditions in Venezuela are by and large a product of the actions of said dictator. Do you disagree? How was the Great Depression in the 30's a result of the leadership? If anything, one could argue that the lack of involvement from Coolidge helped lay the groundwork for the incredibly loose credit standards that fueled rampant speculation that caused the great crash setting off a depression, but that's a pretty stretched out argument that pales in simplicity compared to what's going on in Venezuela. Admittedly I'm less familiar with the UK in the 90's that you're speaking of, but in any case that is irrelevant. You seem to be arguing that if their are poor economic conditions that therefore the leadership must be acting in the form of a dictatorship. Frankly, I don't think anyone is arguing that as it's a ludicrous position. Your premise is reversed. The argument (at least the one that I would make) is that the dictatorship is a causal event in creating poor economic conditions (at least particularly in the case of Venezuela and several others), not the other way around. Economic conditions are a result not a cause. Do you disagree?

Old Post Sep-04-2007 23:10  United States
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Fir3start3r
Armin Acolyte



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: Toronto, ON, Canada

quote:
Originally posted by George Smiley
Economic performance never has and never will be a marker of dictatorship. Sure the government of the day is responsible for the economy, but to suggest that poor economic performances = dictatorship is opportunist at best, and stupid at worst...


*COUGH*CUBA*COUGH*


___________________
"...End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path...one that we all must take.
The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all change to silver glass...and then you see it...
...white shores...and beyond...the far green country under a swift sunrise."

Old Post Sep-04-2007 23:38  Canada
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