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Originally posted by Capitalizt Man, these debates have worn me out over the past few days.. I'm just going to post one final thing for all my economic aficionados in PDD before I let trancer take over for a while. I read this book in college back in 2000 and just found it FREE online from scribd. It's a fantastic resource with plenty of "meat and potatoes" to sink your teeth into if you want to learn about the great depression and the decade preceding it. There are no esoteric terms or crazy formulas...just hard historical data and trenchant analysis on the subject. Try to stick with it..It's a surprisingly easy read despite the length.

im not sure if i read any rothbard during the old days, but i definitely read a lot of hayek. these people have screws loose.

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Originally posted by Occrider Friedman, Schwartz, and Bernanke are probably the most preeminent experts on the great depression and their analyses differ largely from yours.

rothbard is a nobody on the subject.

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Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN rothbard is a nobody on the subject.

Which is a shame..cuz he's the only one who's got it right.

goodnight

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Originally posted by Capitalizt Which is a shame..cuz he's the only one who's got it right. goodnight

Riiight. The guy who thinks the state's monopoly on force should end gets it right!

Way I'm looking at my own personal prospectus of the current decline I've been working on over the last 3 months or so, I'd say it will bounce back very quickly, within about 6 months give or take a few. Some countries are going to take a bit longer to crawl out of the hole they're in but to be honest, its not going to be the great depression of the 1930's.

Now for the pre-prepared that saw it coming and squirreled away the nuts, we'll make like bandits out of this as the US is crawling back onto its feet within the next 8 months and currency exchanges come back with a vengeance. I've got 2mil in US currency waiting to pop back up to its normal state as there is some massive amounts of liquidity being pumped into the system to kick it over again. By the time the AU$ gets flatlined at around $0.60 in the next few months there will be a 36-40% profit in there somewhere.
Then I'm going to sink it back into real estate.
I predict this side of the pond will boom as the Labor government pulls out the last of its savings to pound the dollar for all its worth in the real estate and industrial sectors, China at least is fairly close to us down in AU and will begin to play by their own rules and pump their Yuan up with artificial inflation that they have kept artificially low.

If you're looking to cash in on that the Yuan is probably a pretty solid longshot bet in currency trading and shares in Chinese areas of business open to investment. But it will flow onto the US at some point because they're joined at the hip so to speak.

Sure things are going to be tough all over for awhile.
I think in some ways which are more than a little bit callous, this probably isn't a bad thing as it sorts out the riff raff from the markets. If you survive the coming mess, you'll be stronger for the learning experience.

You'll probably do well in real estate over the coming decade..especially if you buy when things bottom out later this year. I think we are going to have one final "crack-up" boom over the next 10 years with trillions of newly printed dollars struggling to find a home..and another huge credit/housing/business bubble as the fed keeps money cheap for a prolonged period. Gold, silver, oil, agriculture, and yep..real estate are good choices. They are hard assets who's supply can't be increased at the stroke of a pen, so they really have nowhere to go but up in nominal terms. Their actual VALUE might not change but as inflation kicks in their prices will surely rise. When you go to sell however the prices of everything else will have skyrocketed as well, so you won't feel filthy rich. You will at least have preserved what you already had..something the vast majority of savers and retirees will not have done. You can either own hard assets to maintain your living standard in the future or you can own paper and watch your living standard drop as it loses value year after year.

have you received your economics degree yet capitalizt?

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It's all about Marshallian K.

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Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN have you received your economics degree yet capitalizt?

unfortuantely, Capitalizt's last comment (with the exception of using the word who's [weird] instead of whose) has a good degree of truth to it. Inflation will be a pretty big problem in about 3-7 years (even warren buffet is citing this as a significant future concern). The fed's ability to control inflation will also be impaired because it started buying corporate debt, which obviously isn't as liquid as US treasuries. So, the fed won't be able to contract thte money supply as easily when inflation gets moving. I would certainly invest in residential REITs and ETFs based on hard commodities. It's a solid play in the mid term to protect against inflation.

The only two ways to protect against inflation is to increase interest rates and to raise taxes, both of which will slow growth. A combination of increasing interest rates, increasing taxes, and allowing some above average inflation is probably the best course. It will be a precarious balancing act.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/02/new...sion=2009050213

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RECOVERY COULD TRIGGER MORE INFLATION Buffett said Americans, including himself, did not predict the severity of home price declines, which led to problems with securitizations and other debt whose value depended on home prices continuing to rise, or at least not plummet. "It was like some kids saying the emperor has no clothes, and then after he says that, he says now that the emperor doesn't have any underwear either," Buffett said. "We want to err on the side next time of not allowing big institutions to get as unchecked on leverage as we have allowed them to do." Consumers too should reduce their reliance on debt such as credit cards, he said. "I can't make money borrowing money at 18 or 20 percent," said Buffett, ranked as the second-richest American by Forbes magazine in October. "I'd go broke." Buffett said the economy was mere hours away from collapse last September when credit markets seized up, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc went bankrupt and insurer American International Group Inc got its first bailout. While praising efforts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and others to stimulate the economy, he said the economy "can't turn around on a dime" and that their efforts could trigger higher inflation once demand rebounds. "We are certainly doing things that could lead to a lot of inflation," he said. "In economics there is no free lunch."

http://www.reuters.com/article/topN...E5282J820090309

Last edited by jerZ07002 on May-09-2009 at 16:54

self schooled pk..as evidenced by the mispelled "whose" (I've never actually had to spell that word before, lol)..and I shall be willing to accept your apology when every global currency has been devalued by 50%+..if the lights are still on of course.

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Originally posted by Capitalizt self schooled pk..as evidenced by the mispelled "whose" (I've never actually had to spell that word before, lol)..and I shall be willing to accept your apology when every global currency has been devalued by 50%+..if the lights are still on of course.

Clearly you were self-schooled. The word 'shall' is a command, and it is improper to command yourself to do something. This is especially true when commanding yourself to have the will in the future (that's just weird). Simply, the phrase 'i will accept your apology....' is sufficient.





don't take me too seriously, i'm just playing around.

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Originally posted by jerZ07002 Clearly you were self-schooled. The word 'shall' is a command, and it is improper to command yourself to do something. This is especially true when commanding yourself to have the will in the future (that's just weird). Simply, the phrase 'i will accept your apology....' is sufficient. don't take me too seriously, i'm just playing around.

Good, because you are incorrect on this.

-5% on your vocab test Mr. Jerz.