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How long will the Stephen Harper led minority government last?

The average lifespan of a federal minority government is 18 months. I highly doubt any of the opposition parties will be foolish enough to put forth a motion of non confidence anytime in the near future. So how long do you think this one will last? Is there anyone who thinks they'll be in power for the full term?

With all these damn Liberals fearing for their lives like the country is about to turn into a military state, not too long.

ps. i heard that Harper is starting an "inquisition" of sorts, but against gays.

within 24 months......if the world doesn't end first....

GO BLUE TEAM!

LOL!

I give it 8-12 months before we are back at the polling stations to vote again

None of the parties want another election until they can pay off the debts from this one. That will take at least 18 months. However, we should all note that the Liberals are now without a leader. It will likely take 6-9 months before a leadership convention can be held and a leader named. Rest assured the Liberals will not want to bring the house down anywhere near that time BUT the conservatives might. I would not be surprised if Harper pulls a Deifenbaker (sp?) and dissolves parliament shortly after the Liberal leadership convention. It's a good move because people don't like voteing for someone they don't really know (remember Stockwell Day?) and whoever takes over as the Liberal leader is likely to be someone who has been out of the lime light for a while (McKenna?????). That said, it can also backfire if the public tunes to the strategy involved in the timing and deems it to be dirty politics. How the public would react to such a thing is a function of which party is able to control the focus of the media.

If I had to predict I would say that parliament will be dissolved within 1 month of the Liberal leadership convention if Harper dissolves the house and 2-2.5 years if the opposition votes non-confidence.

Isn't it great to live in Italy?

They had a stretch of something like 49 elections in 48 years.

Imagine the voter fatigue and the drain on the public coffers.

10 thousand years..

quote:

"In order to ensure our security and continuing stability, the HOUSE of COMMONS will be reorganized into the first Galactic Empire, for a safe and secure society which I assure you will last for ten thousand years." - Stephen Harper

quote:

Originally posted by dEsidEL 10 thousand years..

The only way I could see anything lasting ten thousand years is if Harper puts Canada in ruins

I hope not long...


he is just such an arrogant man and he is not supporting woman's right to choose so he is a no-no in my books

quote:

Originally posted by TrinityGirl I hope not long... he is just such an arrogant man and he is not supporting woman's right to choose so he is a no-no in my books

yyaa WTF is this?? what are we, ANIMALS?? Are we incapable of choice, of speech?? Is there some kind of degeneracy in a woman that I am not aware of???
What a f'in leader....how did he get voted in?? Did all the woman in canada migrate to some other country??

Many women in Canada who voted conservative either don't have an interest in abortion rights, or don't support them. Just because you're a woman doesn't mean you are automatically pro-life vs pro-choice. It's a very personal issue that is tied to one's religious beliefs for many - the younger generation of Canadadians don't have the same relgious convictions that the older Canadians do.

Canada as a whole is still very Christian.

I am personally very meh about the results of the election. Harper doesn't have a majority government, and that was the big concern for me.

well, the Libs will be restructuring for about a year, so I say 18 months.

My guess is 2-3 years.

Whoa... A lot of assumptions and jumping the gun on Harper by many people. Kinda reminds me of hate time in 1984. The part where you're suppose to hate the pic of the enemy in the TV.

Let's criticize him on what he did and concrete evidences that points to what he will do. (heresays and assumptions don't count)

I'm hampered by not having sources, but I think he said that his views on abortion were too complex to explain to Canadians during the campaign.

Newman: What about the issue of same-sex [marriage], I think people are wondering about. You promised to take that to a vote to Parliament. If someone is born gay in Canada, why should they expect to have less access to the institutions of the country and sanctions?

Harper: This is an emotional subject. Some people see it as a rights issue; I see it as an issue of marriage, as an issue of preserving an important traditional institution and I don't think that has to inhibit anyone's choices or their benefits or rights and I don't see it as a rights issue and I guess that's the big divide. And I think we've got to preserve our traditional institutions.

Newman: On the issue of abortion, will you pledge that there will be no legislation on abortion, there will never be a free vote in Parliament on that issue?

Harper: Never is a long time. What I'm saying is I have no desire to see that issue debated in the near future. We're saying very clear in our platform we're not going to support or initiate abortion legislation and frankly I don't want this Parliament to have an abortion debate.

Newman: So to be clear, you support a woman's right to choose?

Harper: I've always said my views on the abortion issue are complex, I don't fall into any of the neat polar extremes on this issue.

Newman: Explain them then if they are complex.

Harper: No, I don't need to because I'm not proceeding with an abortion agenda.

National PostThursday, January 19, 2006




He also supported the war on Iraq. It's easy to flip-flop now because we just don't have the manpower to spread the army more thinly than it is.

Voter turnout in my riding wa a whopping 50%. Great, the geezer vote won the day. I still don't know who won my riding, but it's still the geezer vote.

I do, however, think that the alarmism is unwarranted.

we'll have a good idea when the first budget is voted (if ever).

quote:

Originally posted by Wurm He also supported the war on Iraq. It's easy to flip-flop now because we just don't have the manpower to spread the army more thinly than it is.

Let's also keep in mind that personal morals do not necessarily reflect on a politician's will to impose it on others. Harper has his views. That's fine. But I think he realizes that he cannot try to force it on others without severe backlash.

As for Canadian military, just this week new rotation of 2000 left for Kandahar and this is a firm commitment in Afghanistan for a while. Even if Canadian public wants CAF in Iraq, (and it won't, unless Harper wants to commit political suicide) CDS and top generals will tell him that this is unsustainable. At least until the army grows enough to sustain 2 large ops at once.

quote:

Originally posted by TrinityGirl I hope not long... he is just such an arrogant man and he is not supporting woman's right to choose so he is a no-no in my books

he has said repeatedly he would NOT open the debate on this. This is just liberal smearing and you fell for it.

quote:

Originally posted by Jayx1 he has said repeatedly he would NOT open the debate on this. This is just liberal smearing and you fell for it.

The way he's stated this though has left it open for a member of parliament to raise the issue for it to be voted on in the house of commons.

If he is in power long enough, the issue will be re-visited. A siginificant number of Conservative MPs have gone on record stating their anti-abortion views.

Newman: On the issue of abortion, will you pledge that there will be no legislation on abortion, there will never be a free vote in Parliament on that issue?

Harper: Never is a long time. What I'm saying is I have no desire to see that issue debated in the near future.

quote:

Originally posted by Skipper The way he's stated this though has left it open for a member of parliament to raise the issue for it to be voted on in the house of commons. If he is in power long enough, the issue will be re-visited. A siginificant number of Conservative MPs have gone on record stating their anti-abortion views. Newman: On the issue of abortion, will you pledge that there will be no legislation on abortion, there will never be a free vote in Parliament on that issue? Harper: Never is a long time. What I'm saying is I have no desire to see that issue debated in the near future.

I would agree with Harper though and I'm not saying that because I'm defending the guy either.
There's a LOT of cleanup to do and that is going to take time; the focus needs to go there first.
If it's brought up too soon it's going to only exasperate things that obviously already in chaos.
He's not saying he's never going to address it, just not now...

^And if abortion is ever put to bill, it'll be defeated by most libs, BQ, NDP and more centre Conservatives who might even bolt to Libs if Harper forces the issue.

Here's an interesting bit from Criminal Justice Code of Canada
http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/c-46/42644.html

quote:

223. (1) A child becomes a human being within the meaning of this Act when it has completely proceeded, in a living state, from the body of its mother, whether or not (a) it has breathed; (b) it has an independent circulation; or (c) the navel string is severed. (2) A person commits homicide when he causes injury to a child before or during its birth as a result of which the child dies after becoming a human being. R.S., c. C-34, s. 206.

people worry way too much about the abortion issue.

There is a very large pro-choice concensus in Canada.

quote:

Originally posted by TrinityGirl I hope not long... he is just such an arrogant man and he is not supporting woman's right to choose so he is a no-no in my books

lol fall for any other liberal smear ads? i think i saw a few solders with guns walkin down yonge st this morning too. Abortion's never going to be illegal in canada, and it's sad that you're making your choice of government(or at least excluding tories as a choice) based on harper's personal belief when hes repeatedly said he has no plans to bring it forward and it is not his party's policy. I'm super pro choice, just dont believe all the conspiricy theories about him cause i think he actually wants to lead canada and not force his own agenda on the country. How is he arrogant exactly?

i say we'll have an election in 2.5 years....if harper has kept his word..he'll get a much stronger minority or a slight majority... if hes got this ever so evil hidden agenda then the liberals will hopefully have smartened the fuck up, cleaned up, and will be back in office....so lets see what harper can do!

quote:

Originally posted by Skipper The way he's stated this though has left it open for a member of parliament to raise the issue for it to be voted on in the house of commons. If he is in power long enough, the issue will be re-visited. A siginificant number of Conservative MPs have gone on record stating their anti-abortion views. Newman: On the issue of abortion, will you pledge that there will be no legislation on abortion, there will never be a free vote in Parliament on that issue? Harper: Never is a long time. What I'm saying is I have no desire to see that issue debated in the near future.

Many Liberals are also on record as saying this and some liberals even introduced private members bills on abortion. Why was this never an issue with theM?

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