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Worlds Next Superpower ?

After seeing all these political threads lately....I am curious to findout about who TAs think the Worlds Next Superpower would be ?


I will list an " Other " in the poll,if you belong to a country or think that a certian country has all right things and could qualify to be a superpower please list them.


Thank you.

A little Insight on the countries listed in the poll.

European Union :-

The European Union has been called a potential superpower by academics.The power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century.Several factors: the EU's large population, the EU's large economy, the EU's low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week).

On the other hand the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains.



People's Republic of China :-

Receives almost continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue", and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario", "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time".

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China is too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk, writing in China: Fragile Superpower.Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.


India :-

Is the world's most populous democracy, and has impressive GDP growth of around 9%.According to Goldman Sachs revised BRIC progress report, "India�s GDP (in US$ terms) will surpass that of the US before 2050, to make it the second largest economy" in the world. India will also see their GDP per capita in US$ terms quadruple in the years from 2007 to 2020. India's emergence in the spheres of information technology and other service industries, and regional power politics, are recognized as reasons that India may rival American, European or Chinese power in the future.

Newsweek, and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential to be a third superpower.

China and India rising to superpower status isn't inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.


Russia:-


Intends to re-emerge as a "full-fledged superpower", according to Proffessor Steven Rosefielde of Southwest Missouri State University He also says that "Contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal would appear to be easily within the Kremlin's grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense." R. G. Williams of the Naval Postgraduate School contends that, "present Western policy pursuits will lead to a regenerated authoritarian Russian superpower." However Vladimir Putin has described "superpower" as a Cold War term that no longer applies.



Source

Other:
Google. Once they team up with Apple it's all over

China

China has a skyrocketing economy, many U.S. corporations have move or have a division in China or it's neighbouring countries, I think in a a decade or two the whole East/Southeast Asia will be huge economically. Many countries like South Korea, Japan, and up and coming Vietnam will be contributing to China's economy and power.

and everything is Made in China

India and China imo....if things go the way they are right now. I am going to visit Shanghai end of this year and go back home to Delhi twice every year....every time I go...I am stunned by the changes and the development I see in the city...its stunning...the number of new flyovers being built on, highways at places that were jungles only like a couple of years ago, the changing mentality of the younger generation, increased professionalismm and omg...the fuckin call centers on the outskirts of Delhi...

It will be a problem for USA in the future if India, China and Russia have good mutual relations. The relations between the three countries is pretty good right now and definitely on the rise...

I picked India, cuz brown girls are hot.

quote:

Originally posted by Abercrombie I picked India, cuz brown girls are hot.

That too...

quote:

Originally posted by Invasionmix and everything is Made in China

Everything won't be made in China once it becomes a superpower. Shit is made there because they have next to zero labour laws. As the country grows economically it will no doubt grow democratically as well, and the labour laws will be born, and will drive out all that cheap labour elsewhere.

But yeah, that economy is blowing up right now. And will continue to do so for the near future.

quote:

Originally posted by Abercrombie I picked India, cuz brown girls are hot.

LOL fair enough Ahjay

quote:

Originally posted by Abercrombie I picked India, cuz brown girls are hot.

what? where?? the ones i've seen around look like they got hit by a bag full of "yeeesh!"

quote:

Originally posted by TO guy Everything won't be made in China once it becomes a superpower. Shit is made there because they have next to zero labour laws. As the country grows economically it will no doubt grow democratically as well, and the labour laws will be born, and will drive out all that cheap labour elsewhere. But yeah, that economy is blowing up right now. And will continue to do so for the near future.

You are right that labor laws will happen as China progresses. But this is where the whole 2 billion population comes to the rescue. China has done a great thing by controlling its population now. Only one child per family...and if you have more than one children...you pay some real heavy duties to the Government.

So now what is happening is that with the economic development is the decreasing amount of unemployment...but there are still way too many people in China that would work for real less and this is the way it is going to be atleast for the next two decades.

India is in the same situation as well. The economic development in India has created tremendous amount of opportunities but there are still many people living in villages that are not aware of this yet. There are a still a lot of unemployed people living in villages. In the coming years, it would be their turn to develop, get jobs, etc...but with 1 billion people....it would easily take a couple of decades where the labor costs, unions, etc....start becoming a problem.

quote:

Originally posted by TO guy Everything won't be made in China once it becomes a superpower. Shit is made there because they have next to zero labour laws. As the country grows economically it will no doubt grow democratically as well, and the labour laws will be born, and will drive out all that cheap labour elsewhere. But yeah, that economy is blowing up right now. And will continue to do so for the near future.

why would it have to grow democratically? They don't need to add labour laws or anything because that will screw them over, labour laws is Western influence, not a requirement. China is still somewhat communist and they would most likely stay that way for a long time.

And if they're making everything in the country all the products would be cheaper for them, they would only have to import raw materials, everything else they're making it.

P.S. To rebuttal Abercrombie's argument. Asian girls are cute :P

Evian

quote:

Originally posted by Invasionmix P.S. To rebuttal Abercrombie's argument. Asian girls are cute :P

yeah, I said before...

Asians are hot too
Brazilians are hot too
Asians with Brazilians are

quote:

Originally posted by Invasionmix why would it have to grow democratically? They don't need to add labour laws or anything because that will screw them over, labour laws is Western influence, not a requirement. China is still somewhat communist and they would most likely stay that way for a long time. And if they're making everything in the country all the products would be cheaper for them, they would only have to import raw materials, everything else they're making it. P.S. To rebuttal Abercrombie's argument. Asian girls are cute :P

They don't have to. I said it would likely happen. As the economy grows more and more money (power/influence) will be in the hands of more and more people, giving them, rather than the central communist government the ability and the reasons to introduce democracy.

You could call it a "western" ideal, but you could also call it a "developed" ideal.

Re: Worlds Next Superpower ?

quote:

Originally posted by Provocative_boi European Union :- The European Union has been called a potential superpower by academics.The power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century.Several factors: the EU's large population, the EU's large economy, the EU's low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week). On the other hand the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains.

Politically most unstable as each nation has its own agenda and can't really agree which direction EU should take. (Esp. with failure of latest round of EU constitution ratification)

Doesn't have enough natural resources to drive its own economy and its protectionist trade policy alienates other potential investors in their economy.

The big gap between quality of life between Western and Eastern members also may be cause for concern, esp. if EU takes on more socialist equalization program to balance out the quality of living among all EU members. Also, the high cost of living among some EU nations.

quote:

People's Republic of China :- Receives almost continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue", and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario", "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time". Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China is too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk, writing in China: Fragile Superpower.Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.

My vote for the next superpower.

I think the current political leadership is stable enough to drive the economic growth while keeping dissent down. The memories of Tiananmen Square still linger in the minds of many Chinese. The current economic policies have put money into pockets of many Chinese, though not to many who live in rural area.

PRC has shown that it can maintain a capitalist laissez faire policy, as it has absorbed Hong Kong and Macao into its fold without distrupting the trade from those areas.
Though if other nations realize that the trade imbalance with China does not benefit them at all and stop trading with China, China will have harder time growing without the surplus trade to invest in its domestic infrastructure.

China also has potential access to world's potentially biggest resource area in Siberia. Offer Russia a deal that it cannot refuse and China may have secured all the natural resources it needs for the future.

As for technology and innovation, attract the best brains in the world by offering them lots of money and cushy quality of living and people will come to China to work.

quote:

India :- Is the world's most populous democracy, and has impressive GDP growth of around 9%.According to Goldman Sachs revised BRIC progress report, "India�s GDP (in US$ terms) will surpass that of the US before 2050, to make it the second largest economy" in the world. India will also see their GDP per capita in US$ terms quadruple in the years from 2007 to 2020. India's emergence in the spheres of information technology and other service industries, and regional power politics, are recognized as reasons that India may rival American, European or Chinese power in the future. Newsweek, and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential to be a third superpower. China and India rising to superpower status isn't inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.

I think India will have harder time than China simply because the population is too dense and the gap between rich and poor too big. I'm not sure about India's trade, but it seems to rely a lot on emerging computer tech and other related industry.

Without some means to tap into potential manpower the avg mass have by investing in education and other social infrastructure, as well as being able to feed them and provide them with better quality of life, India will have harder time than China to be a superpower.

quote:

Russia:- Intends to re-emerge as a "full-fledged superpower", according to Proffessor Steven Rosefielde of Southwest Missouri State University He also says that "Contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal would appear to be easily within the Kremlin's grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense." R. G. Williams of the Naval Postgraduate School contends that, "present Western policy pursuits will lead to a regenerated authoritarian Russian superpower." However Vladimir Putin has described "superpower" as a Cold War term that no longer applies.

Russia has all the potential to be a superpower, but the legacy of corrupt Communist regime may require much time to overhaul into effective government to foster growth.

Not to mention Russia always seems to fall back on some sort of authoritarian regime all throughout the history... Hence why Putin is doing some serious arm twisting to fast track Russia back into superpower status, but at the expense of alienating a lot of the Western world at this point.

Russia needs to attract new investors in order to harness the natural resources Siberia has, but at current moment, the political climate is too hostile for investment in Russia. This may force Russia to turn to China as investor, unless US's superpower status is somehow broken in next 50 yrs, and allowing Russia to assert its dominance on the world stage

quote:

Originally posted by TO guy They don't have to. I said it would likely happen. As the economy grows more and more money (power/influence) will be in the hands of more and more people, giving them, rather than the central communist government the ability and the reasons to introduce democracy. You could call it a "western" ideal, but you could also call it a "developed" ideal.

I think you're thinking from the Western point of view.

In Chinese thinking, individuality is often frown upon and people tend to go along with what the mass want. (The tallest tree gets cut down first by a strong wind) Also why few strong leaders can take on the power, and keep it.

As long as the mass is satisfied with their quality of living, I don't think there is much opposition to the current regime. It'd have to be something really big for avg Chinese to gather and demand reforms.

^ Yeah what he said.

I picked India, huge army, nukes, large population. I know China has those things also but a lot of the Chinese population is agrarian and live in poverty (same in India). Keep in mind though both countries get a lot of their weaponry from Russia. I think for the foreseeable future US will still be the only superpower. They got this shit on lockdown :P

quote:

Originally posted by thesauce23 what? where?? the ones i've seen around look like they got hit by a bag full of "yeeesh!"

They do look better outside your trailer park.

quote:

Originally posted by TO guy Everything won't be made in China once it becomes a superpower. Shit is made there because they have next to zero labour laws. As the country grows economically it will no doubt grow democratically as well, and the labour laws will be born, and will drive out all that cheap labour elsewhere. But yeah, that economy is blowing up right now. And will continue to do so for the near future.

Yea, they are tightening things up there already since the Olympic games are going to be there. It's about damn time.

I picked China. It scares me a bit.

quote:

Originally posted by Abercrombie They do look better outside your trailer park.

lol. trailor park? yup you got it. WINNER, buddy, WINNER! woooo

with all this super power talk and what not... Who's keeping an eye out for Australia? You rarely see any news about them, and they havn't had a war in the longest time.... They must be up to something.

quote:

Originally posted by Anton I picked India, huge army, nukes, large population. I know China has those things also but a lot of the Chinese population is agrarian and live in poverty (same in India). Keep in mind though both countries get a lot of their weaponry from Russia. I think for the foreseeable future US will still be the only superpower. They got this shit on lockdown :P

The days of direct military confrontation is over...

Well, until US cease to exist as superpower.

So having a big military necessarily isn't a good thing. It just cost a lot to maintain and for most cases, just sits there. (Unless you get into Iraq style conflict which is another case all together)

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