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-- European Politics Thread: Netherlands, France, Germany, Great Britain, and Narnia 2017
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Originally posted by Lews Many in financial circles actually thought that a larger majority would give May more leeway to pursue a soft Brexit, as she could then maintain enough confidence/votes while dismissing the hardcore Eurosceptics.

I stand corrected, I mixed up the terms

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Originally posted by Lews Lib Dem victory would also give way to a soft Brexit

As part of a coalition, right? Because, in the extreme event they managed to win and go it alone, wouldn't they want to reverse the process altogether?

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Before this election was called, was there any chance of her facing a confidence vote?

In the case negotiations derailed and/or the moment the effects of Brexited kicked in, it would be quite likely, no?

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Before this election was called, was there any chance of her facing a confidence vote? She was sky high in the opinion polls and had the right wing tabloids firmly on her side. If she called an election out of fear of a potential collapse in party confidence in her, then she must really have no faith in the Brexit negotiations.

I have no inside knowledge about exactly what the Eurosceptics would do or were planning to do, but I do know that there was a mainstream/centre Tory concern that, yeah, if Brexit begins to hurt the economy more and negotiations go poorly, then May might get cold feet about a Hard Brexit, and then she might face a vote of no confidence and the Eurosceptics might cross-over to UKIP or otherwise not vote for her if she moved towards a softer version. Thus, having a larger majority in the Commons, so she would be less reliant on the Eurosceptic backbenchers, would ultimately make Brexit negotiations easier by giving her more flexibility.

Of course, a lot of people now are saying that this result will give a softer Brexit, because DUP is adamant against any hard border and May might be able to survive with DUP and some centrist Labour/Lib Dem votes rather than her Eurosceptic backbenchers, leading to a more comprising position.

Really, it seems like people are desperate to cling to any idea that the UK will stay in the single market and have freedom of movement. It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens! ...And if May will still be PM in 1 month/4 months/1 year/etc.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J She really has single-handedly destroyed her own reputation and political career in the space of a month. It's a remarkable act of political suicide. She's surely a dead woman walking, DUP confidence or not. And frankly, she deserves everything she gets. The campaign she ran was arrogant, hubristic and intellectually insulting to the British public. I voted Labour, less out of faith in Corbynomics (although I would be interested to see what happens if we did smash up the neo-liberal economic consensus for five years, just for a change) and more as a protest vote against the kind of politics she enacted. The best thing that came out of this result was a giant Fuck You to Lynton Crosby, Paul Dacre and the gutter press tabloids in this country.

This is one of those campaigns were (I definitely am biased but) I feel that a lot of the Labour voters were voting against the current government, not for Corbynomics. All these media reports and hard left people going on about how this proves Corbyn right all along, etc... Partially I just highly dislike Corbyn and his policies, and I have a hard time believing so many people feel otherwise, but also it just was shocking just how bad the Tory campaign and the Tory manifesto were. I'm not sure I have any Tory friends who actually thought the campaign and the manifesto were in any way good - talking to many about how they hoped and anticipated things would go, they would sort of grimace and say 'well, I am a Tory...'

It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives wisen up a bit and Labour goes further left, what will happen the next time people go to the polls. Perhaps people really are ready for Corbynomics, but I'm inclined to think not.

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Originally posted by Lira I stand corrected, I mixed up the terms

Wait, I just realised I said what the media said. Didn't she go from being a remainer to being a hard Brexiter when she became the PM?

In other news, the Finnish government is imploding, because our PM doesn't want to work with a racist dickhead:
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/...s_party/9664904

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Originally posted by Lews I have no inside knowledge about exactly what the Eurosceptics would do or were planning to do, but I do know that there was a mainstream/centre Tory concern that, yeah, if Brexit begins to hurt the economy more and negotiations go poorly, then May might get cold feet about a Hard Brexit, and then she might face a vote of no confidence and the Eurosceptics might cross-over to UKIP or otherwise not vote for her if she moved towards a softer version.

That could well be true, but it was the opposite of how the right wing press sold the election, which was as a way of removing the obstacles to a Hard Brexit.

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Originally posted by Lews It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives wisen up a bit and Labour goes further left, what will happen the next time people go to the polls. Perhaps people really are ready for Corbynomics, but I'm inclined to think not.

That's because you haven't had to deal with any of the direct effects of austerity. The Tories scored some spectacular own goals with the few policies they did bother to announce, which alienated pensioners (a core demographic) while Corbyn incited massive youth engagement, so the Tories were squeezed in both directions. But I'd say most of the people in the middle are just sick of constant cuts to healthcare, education, policing and public services.

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Originally posted by Mr.Mystery In other news, the Finnish government is imploding, because our PM doesn't want to work with a racist dickhead: https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/...s_party/9664904

Correct me if I'm wrong but there's no need to call a snap election because, in Finland, the Prime Minister can just rearrange the coalition, right?

Good thing it isn't hard to rule out a gov with the cocks out

Sorry, Lira, missed your first post on this page. You didn't mix up the terms; as Jack said, that is how the media sold things -> large Tory majority = Hard Brexit! I was just trying to give another perspective on things that I find interesting, though I'm inclined to think it was a bit optimistic

I say, Jack, I think it's slightly unfair to say that none of the austerity measures have directly touched me... I certainly am quite a pretentious bastard, but I'm not an overly wealthy one! I'm rather sick of all those cuts as well, both for how they directly impact my life and the lives of those I care about and for how they generally impact the society in which we live.

But, more generally, I think that being against more austerity and being pro Corbynomics are very different things. I'm not sure why so many people (on both the left and the right) seem to think that properly funding the NHS also means we need to nationalise the railroads. I don't think, from my conversations with people in general, that having a centrist position is so difficult.

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Originally posted by Lira Correct me if I'm wrong but there's no need to call a snap election because, in Finland, the Prime Minister can just rearrange the coalition, right? Good thing it isn't hard to rule out a gov with the cocks out

You're right. IF he can find enough parties willing to participate. It's all becoming a bit of a farce.

Wasn't he going to team up with the Christian Democrats and a Swedish party? Did the talks fail or something?

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Originally posted by Lews Sorry, Lira, missed your first post on this page. You didn't mix up the terms; as Jack said, that is how the media sold things -> large Tory majority = Hard Brexit! I was just trying to give another perspective on things that I find interesting, though I'm inclined to think it was a bit optimistic

Ah, got it!

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Originally posted by Lews I'm not sure why so many people (on both the left and the right) seem to think that properly funding the NHS also means we need to nationalise the railroads. I don't think, from my conversations with people in general, that having a centrist position is so difficult.

If you're rational, I'm sure it isn't. However, I'm sure you've noticed that's not how humans work

As a centrist, I've noticed my friends have become increasingly polarised from 2013 onwards - which I thought had something to do with the World Cup protests, but the Pew Research Center has consistently shown the gap between left and right in the US is widening as well. Apparently, people are adopting party lines wholesale, so that political stances are becoming part of one's identity far more than in the past. All I have is the date from Pew Research and anecdotes, so if you feel there's something more to it and you've got some interesting data, I'm all ears (well, eyes)

quote:

Originally posted by Lira Wasn't he going to team up with the Christian Democrats and a Swedish party? Did the talks fail or something?

They haven't even started yet, but yeah, that's pretty much the only possible scenario. It's a good thing for our PM, since those two little parties will say yes to anything just so they can be a part of it.

Our government has been cocking it up pretty hard lately, so a snap election would had been a good way to save face... if it wasn't for the fact that the previous winners would most definitely lose this time, so of course they're not going to do that.

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Originally posted by Lews I say, Jack, I think it's slightly unfair to say that none of the austerity measures have directly touched me... I certainly am quite a pretentious bastard, but I'm not an overly wealthy one!

You're not overly wealthy, but you're a thousand miles from being poor. While I have no lack of respect for your understanding of politics and economics, particularly from an academic perspective, I think you sometimes lack lived-in experience in this kind of discussion.

You live practically on the banks of the river Thames, in an area where the average property price is almost four times the national average. You've never visited the majority of this country. You've only lived in the UK since 2012, so you've actually never even seen what this country is like outside of austerity. You talk about nationalisation of the railways, which is actually one of Corbyn's most popular policies across all demographics. It probably doesn't make sense to you because you've hardly ever caught a train in this country that wasn't the Tube or part of an airport transport link. Simply by living in a wealthy part of London, trust me when I say you're very much encased away from the normal living conditions of the majority of this country.

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Originally posted by Lira Wasn't he going to team up with the Christian Democrats and a Swedish party? Did the talks fail or something?

The Finns Party split in half today, with 20 members leaving and forming a new group, which makes 17 members left in the old group. This should enable this new group to be included in the little-changed cabinet, with only the dickhead and his lackeys left out, if I understood correctly.

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Originally posted by JEO The Finns Party split in half today, with 20 members leaving and forming a new group, which makes 17 members left in the old group. This should enable this new group to be included in the little-changed cabinet, with only the dickhead and his lackeys left out, if I understood correctly.

Yeah, this just happened too like an hour ago. Wasn't expecting that.

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Originally posted by djshire Surprised no one is talking about the real hero of UK politics, Lord Buckethead

lolwut?

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J You're not overly wealthy, but you're a thousand miles from being poor. While I have no lack of respect for your understanding of politics and economics, particularly from an academic perspective, I think you sometimes lack lived-in experience in this kind of discussion. You live practically on the banks of the river Thames, in an area where the average property price is almost four times the national average. You've never visited the majority of this country. You've only lived in the UK since 2012, so you've actually never even seen what this country is like outside of austerity. You talk about nationalisation of the railways, which is actually one of Corbyn's most popular policies across all demographics. It probably doesn't make sense to you because you've hardly ever caught a train in this country that wasn't the Tube or part of an airport transport link. Simply by living in a wealthy part of London, trust me when I say you're very much encased away from the normal living conditions of the majority of this country.

Haha

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Before this election was called, was there any chance of her facing a confidence vote? She was sky high in the opinion polls and had the right wing tabloids firmly on her side. If she called an election out of fear of a potential collapse in party confidence in her, then she must really have no faith in the Brexit negotiations. She really has single-handedly destroyed her own reputation and political career in the space of a month. It's a remarkable act of political suicide. She's surely a dead woman walking, DUP confidence or not. And frankly, she deserves everything she gets. The campaign she ran was arrogant, hubristic and intellectually insulting to the British public. I voted Labour, less out of faith in Corbynomics (although I would be interested to see what happens if we did smash up the neo-liberal economic consensus for five years, just for a change) and more as a protest vote against the kind of politics she enacted. The best thing that came out of this result was a giant Fuck You to Lynton Crosby, Paul Dacre and the gutter press tabloids in this country.

This is so spot on. I try to think back just 6-8 weeks and it seems unthinkable that May would be in a political fight for her life, and actually the opposite was true for Corbyn when all the polls were saying there's no chance of him doing well and when the "inevitable" Tory victory is announced, it will be the final nail in the coffin for Corbyn as leader of labour.

Going to your other point about timing, this was a power grab in terms of timing but they packaged it as Britain needing a government in place to see through the brexit as a change in party right around Brexit could be, as May described "catastrophic" for the UK. It was as you said to have the Tories fixed in place long enough to weather the possible economic downturn for brexit and would be hopefully on the upswing by then, giving her another term.

What a fucking backfire though. Labour ends up with considerable gains, Corbyn's place is certainly safe for now, and May might not make it through the next few months, made even worse by the DUP coalition as there's a fair few moderate conservatives that can't abide their social stances, not to mention it smacks of just grabbing the majority where you can, as Cameron did before.

A lot of it can be blamed on the manifesto which was shockingly bad, and resulting in the firing of the two main architects of it, but she hasn't helped herself by cosying up to trump, nor the results of her cuts to Mi5, the Police and the NHS coming home to haunt her so poignantly at the worst possible time (terror attacks, NHS cyber attack etc). Also, some of the interviews she gave were just staggeringly bad, from dodging questions on sky about whether a hard brexit was going to happen, to the "running through fields" debacle.

I'm not a particular fan of Corbyn, but I do feel he actually has the concern of everyday people, whereas May is just playing politics for her demographics.

I am happy that twat Farron stepped down though.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J You're not overly wealthy, but you're a thousand miles from being poor. While I have no lack of respect for your understanding of politics and economics, particularly from an academic perspective, I think you sometimes lack lived-in experience in this kind of discussion. You live practically on the banks of the river Thames, in an area where the average property price is almost four times the national average. You've never visited the majority of this country. You've only lived in the UK since 2012, so you've actually never even seen what this country is like outside of austerity. You talk about nationalisation of the railways, which is actually one of Corbyn's most popular policies across all demographics. It probably doesn't make sense to you because you've hardly ever caught a train in this country that wasn't the Tube or part of an airport transport link. Simply by living in a wealthy part of London, trust me when I say you're very much encased away from the normal living conditions of the majority of this country.

I definitely lack lived-in experience with this and many other similar discussions, as we've discussed before IRL. Not trying to say otherwise! I just meant to say I'm annoyed with the state of some of the public services, too

That's Jack subtle way of saying that you're foreign born intellectual elite.

quote:

Originally posted by Lews I just meant to say I'm annoyed with the state of some of the public services, too

Yeah I can appreciate that, but to be dubious that large numbers of people in this country can genuinely get behind Corbyn's manifesto means you can't be feeling the cuts nearly as deeply as a whole lot of people.

To be honest, most of the austerity measures don't really affect me personally either, as:

1. I'm in good health.
2. I don't have any children.
3. I live in a low-crime area.
4. I earn unexceptional but very liveable money.

However, I know enough people who have been hit hard by them to shudder at the way this country has gone in the last seven years. The economy may have improved (although it's not hard to improve on rock bottom) but everything else seems to be falling apart.

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