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-- America's Debt = "We're Screwed!"
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quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt Man, these debates have worn me out over the past few days.. I'm just going to post one final thing for all my economic aficionados in PDD before I let trancer take over for a while. I read this book in college back in 2000 and just found it FREE online from scribd. It's a fantastic resource with plenty of "meat and potatoes" to sink your teeth into if you want to learn about the great depression and the decade preceding it. There are no esoteric terms or crazy formulas...just hard historical data and trenchant analysis on the subject. Try to stick with it..It's a surprisingly easy read despite the length.

im not sure if i read any rothbard during the old days, but i definitely read a lot of hayek. these people have screws loose.

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Originally posted by Occrider Friedman, Schwartz, and Bernanke are probably the most preeminent experts on the great depression and their analyses differ largely from yours.

rothbard is a nobody on the subject.

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Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN rothbard is a nobody on the subject.

Which is a shame..cuz he's the only one who's got it right.

goodnight

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Originally posted by Capitalizt Which is a shame..cuz he's the only one who's got it right. goodnight

Riiight. The guy who thinks the state's monopoly on force should end gets it right!

Way I'm looking at my own personal prospectus of the current decline I've been working on over the last 3 months or so, I'd say it will bounce back very quickly, within about 6 months give or take a few. Some countries are going to take a bit longer to crawl out of the hole they're in but to be honest, its not going to be the great depression of the 1930's.

Now for the pre-prepared that saw it coming and squirreled away the nuts, we'll make like bandits out of this as the US is crawling back onto its feet within the next 8 months and currency exchanges come back with a vengeance. I've got 2mil in US currency waiting to pop back up to its normal state as there is some massive amounts of liquidity being pumped into the system to kick it over again. By the time the AU$ gets flatlined at around $0.60 in the next few months there will be a 36-40% profit in there somewhere.
Then I'm going to sink it back into real estate.
I predict this side of the pond will boom as the Labor government pulls out the last of its savings to pound the dollar for all its worth in the real estate and industrial sectors, China at least is fairly close to us down in AU and will begin to play by their own rules and pump their Yuan up with artificial inflation that they have kept artificially low.

If you're looking to cash in on that the Yuan is probably a pretty solid longshot bet in currency trading and shares in Chinese areas of business open to investment. But it will flow onto the US at some point because they're joined at the hip so to speak.

Sure things are going to be tough all over for awhile.
I think in some ways which are more than a little bit callous, this probably isn't a bad thing as it sorts out the riff raff from the markets. If you survive the coming mess, you'll be stronger for the learning experience.

You'll probably do well in real estate over the coming decade..especially if you buy when things bottom out later this year. I think we are going to have one final "crack-up" boom over the next 10 years with trillions of newly printed dollars struggling to find a home..and another huge credit/housing/business bubble as the fed keeps money cheap for a prolonged period. Gold, silver, oil, agriculture, and yep..real estate are good choices. They are hard assets who's supply can't be increased at the stroke of a pen, so they really have nowhere to go but up in nominal terms. Their actual VALUE might not change but as inflation kicks in their prices will surely rise. When you go to sell however the prices of everything else will have skyrocketed as well, so you won't feel filthy rich. You will at least have preserved what you already had..something the vast majority of savers and retirees will not have done. You can either own hard assets to maintain your living standard in the future or you can own paper and watch your living standard drop as it loses value year after year.

have you received your economics degree yet capitalizt?

It's all about Marshallian K.

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN have you received your economics degree yet capitalizt?

unfortuantely, Capitalizt's last comment (with the exception of using the word who's [weird] instead of whose) has a good degree of truth to it. Inflation will be a pretty big problem in about 3-7 years (even warren buffet is citing this as a significant future concern). The fed's ability to control inflation will also be impaired because it started buying corporate debt, which obviously isn't as liquid as US treasuries. So, the fed won't be able to contract thte money supply as easily when inflation gets moving. I would certainly invest in residential REITs and ETFs based on hard commodities. It's a solid play in the mid term to protect against inflation.

The only two ways to protect against inflation is to increase interest rates and to raise taxes, both of which will slow growth. A combination of increasing interest rates, increasing taxes, and allowing some above average inflation is probably the best course. It will be a precarious balancing act.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/02/new...sion=2009050213

quote:

RECOVERY COULD TRIGGER MORE INFLATION Buffett said Americans, including himself, did not predict the severity of home price declines, which led to problems with securitizations and other debt whose value depended on home prices continuing to rise, or at least not plummet. "It was like some kids saying the emperor has no clothes, and then after he says that, he says now that the emperor doesn't have any underwear either," Buffett said. "We want to err on the side next time of not allowing big institutions to get as unchecked on leverage as we have allowed them to do." Consumers too should reduce their reliance on debt such as credit cards, he said. "I can't make money borrowing money at 18 or 20 percent," said Buffett, ranked as the second-richest American by Forbes magazine in October. "I'd go broke." Buffett said the economy was mere hours away from collapse last September when credit markets seized up, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc went bankrupt and insurer American International Group Inc got its first bailout. While praising efforts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and others to stimulate the economy, he said the economy "can't turn around on a dime" and that their efforts could trigger higher inflation once demand rebounds. "We are certainly doing things that could lead to a lot of inflation," he said. "In economics there is no free lunch."

http://www.reuters.com/article/topN...E5282J820090309

self schooled pk..as evidenced by the mispelled "whose" (I've never actually had to spell that word before, lol)..and I shall be willing to accept your apology when every global currency has been devalued by 50%+..if the lights are still on of course.

quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt self schooled pk..as evidenced by the mispelled "whose" (I've never actually had to spell that word before, lol)..and I shall be willing to accept your apology when every global currency has been devalued by 50%+..if the lights are still on of course.

Clearly you were self-schooled. The word 'shall' is a command, and it is improper to command yourself to do something. This is especially true when commanding yourself to have the will in the future (that's just weird). Simply, the phrase 'i will accept your apology....' is sufficient.





don't take me too seriously, i'm just playing around.

quote:

Originally posted by jerZ07002 Clearly you were self-schooled. The word 'shall' is a command, and it is improper to command yourself to do something. This is especially true when commanding yourself to have the will in the future (that's just weird). Simply, the phrase 'i will accept your apology....' is sufficient. don't take me too seriously, i'm just playing around.

Good, because you are incorrect on this.

-5% on your vocab test Mr. Jerz.

quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt Good, because you are incorrect on this. -5% on your vocab test Mr. Jerz.

please son, this coming from the guy who just confused who's with whose. Popular usage doesn't make it correct.

FYI, grammar (the rules of syntax) is not the same as vocabulary (a list of words). In this case, your syntax was improper.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/shall
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/shall

Sorry Jer, I don't remember taking syntax tests in english class. They were always called vocabulary tests involving a definition. Your definition (the "command" version) is #2 on the archaic definitions. Popular usage is normal usage and the normal definition of the word. In this case, popular = correct

quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt http://www.thefreedictionary.com/shall http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/shall Sorry Jer, I don't remember taking syntax tests in english class. They were always called vocabulary tests involving a definition. Your definition (the "command" version) is #2 on the archaic definitions. Popular usage is normal usage and the normal definition of the word. In this case, popular = correct

your first mistake is using an online dictonary for proper usgae. Dictonaries give you definitions and some examples; they aren't manuals for english usage.

your second mistake is thinking popular usage means correct usage. People say ain't, which is never correct. Y'all is another word that is commonly used, but not correct.

You went through english without ever being tested on syntax? I find it difficult to believe a teacher never corrected a verb tense or punctuation, cited a misplaced modifier, or located a comma splice in any of your writings. If that's the case, your town should reimburse your parents for property taxes paid while you were in school.

in any event, let's break down what you said using the dictionary (and using each definition in order):

quote:

1. Used before a verb in the infinitive to show: a. Something that will take place or exist in the future: We shall arrive tomorrow. b. Something, such as an order, promise, requirement, or obligation: You shall leave now. He shall answer for his misdeeds. The penalty shall not exceed two years in prison. c. The will to do something or have something take place: I shall go out if I feel like it. d. Something that is inevitable: That day shall come. 2. Archaic a. To be able to. b. To have to; must.

1a - I will be willing to accept.....
1b - I obligate myself to be willing to accept.....
1c - I will have the will to be willing to accept.....
1d - It is inevitable that I will be willing to accept.....

2a - I will be able to be willing to accept....
2b - I must be willing to accept.....

None of those really capture what you were trying to say. Perhaps formulation 1a is technically fine, but it is not the easiest way to convey the meaning. whether you think it is proper to use shall in this case doesn't mask the fact that the sentence you structured is awkward. You clearly didn't mean to say that in the future you would be inclined to accept an apology when currencies devalue. It is obvious you meant to say that "you will accept an apology" when currencies devalue. you may not appreciate the nuances of english, but small things like that can easily change the meaning of a sentence.

k...I'm aware that popular does not mean correct, but in this case the common usage of shall falls into the non-archaic definitions..and I shall continue using shall this way in the future. (P.S., I know "will" is more correct above..but I just wanted to say shall twice in one sentence, lol)

Back on topic.. The national debt increased $40 billion last week..



Go Obama.

I think a while back I wondered what conditions migh cause a run on the US $, don't know where the thread is but this article works here anyway.

"Long before the current financial crisis, nearly two years ago, a little-noticed cloud darkened the horizon for the US government. It was ignored. But now that shadow, in the form of a warning from a top credit rating agency that the nation risked losing its triple A rating if it did not start putting its finances in order, is coming back to haunt us.

That warning from Moody’s focused on the exploding healthcare and Social Security costs that threaten to engulf the federal government in debt over coming decades. The facts show we’re in even worse shape now, and there are signs that confidence in America’s ability to control its finances is eroding."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5534bd04-...?nclick_check=1

Medicare insolvent in 2017, Social Security depleted by 2037.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...aRANpQD984VJH80

quote:

Originally posted by atbell I think a while back I wondered what conditions migh cause a run on the US $, don't know where the thread is but this article works here anyway. "Long before the current financial crisis, nearly two years ago, a little-noticed cloud darkened the horizon for the US government. It was ignored. But now that shadow, in the form of a warning from a top credit rating agency that the nation risked losing its triple A rating if it did not start putting its finances in order, is coming back to haunt us. That warning from Moody’s focused on the exploding healthcare and Social Security costs that threaten to engulf the federal government in debt over coming decades. The facts show we’re in even worse shape now, and there are signs that confidence in America’s ability to control its finances is eroding." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5534bd04-...?nclick_check=1

And then when you recognize how far behind the ball Moody's and the rest of the ratings agencies have been, you really start to realize how much of a hole we're in!

The thread title just seems more and more apt the deeper the posts go...

I just went back to page 1 to see how this thread got started. Props to Zookeeper (who ironically claims to have become a casualty of this mess). What the hell ever happened to Yoepus? I totally forgot about that guy.

Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ (Update1)

By Roger Runningen and Hans Nichols

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama, calling current deficit spending “unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from other countries.

“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We have to pay interest on that debt, and that means we are mortgaging our children’s future with more and more debt.”

Holders of U.S. debt will eventually “get tired” of buying it, causing interest rates on everything from auto loans to home mortgages to increase, Obama said. “It will have a dampening effect on our economy.”

The president pledged to work with Congress to shore up entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare and said he was confident that the House and Senate would pass health-care overhaul bills by August.

“Most of what is driving us into debt is health care, so we have to drive down costs,” he said.

Credit-Card Fees

Obama also prodded Congress to pass restrictions on credit- card issuers, saying consumers need “strong and reliable” protection from unfair practices and hidden fees.

“It’s time for reform that’s built on transparency, accountability, and mutual responsibility, values fundamental to the new foundation we seek to build for our economy,” the president said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...refer=worldwide

quote:

Originally said by The Messiah dude, this shit is ‘Unsustainable’

soooooooo...after only a few months of "sustaining", we're to believe this debt just magically appeared out of nowhere?

...and if i recall two weeks ago he and his complicit media lapdogs were ridiculing Americans peacefully exercising their 1st Amendment rights protesting exactly what he's protesting today. fucking un-fucking-believable.

fuck this cowardly piece of shit. i'm done giving this guy the benefit of the doubt. done

LEGALIZE WEED! NOW!!!

I mean the US armed forces are in Afghanistan and Afghanistan is the #1 producer of poppy plants which are further used for heroine production. . . . So yeah that war on drugs is bullshit the US is secretly banking huge off Afghanistan's poppy plants.

Of course the current deficit spending is unsustainable. It was never meant to be sustainable.

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton It was never meant to be sustainable.

so what exactly are you implying?

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