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-- The State of the 2004 Euro Economy With Weekly Updates
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| Originally posted by Jayday How about some charts to see development over time  |
Week Ending August 1
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Portugal]: -0.2%
FIRST TAKE: The Portuguese industrial sector continued to expand in June, notching a 0.9% m/m expansion on the heels of May's 0.6% gain. According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), activity still lingers 0.2% below year-earlier levels, versus a 2.2% y/y contraction the previous month.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Russia]: 107.5
FIRST TAKE: The Russian Industrial Production Index marked at 107.5 in June, indicating at least the eighteenth straight month of growing industrial production. Additionally, the IP Index on a monthly basis posted at 102, indicating rising production from May's level.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Spain]: 7.3%
FIRST TAKE: According to figures just released by INE, the Spanish statistical agency, real retail sales rebounded strongly in June, climbing 3.8% y/y after a downwardly-revised 0.1% dip in the previous month. In non-inflation adjusted terms, sales rose 7.3% y/y, rebounding strongly from May's 3.1% advance.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland]: -1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Finnish industrial production fell in June by 1.7% from May, following a strong gain the previous month. Despite the sequential slip in June, output growth was healthy on a year-over-year basis (4.9%), with strength stemming from the wood and paper and energy industries.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [France]: 9.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The French unemployment rate rose to 9.9% in June as the number of unemployed rose for the second consecutive month.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France]: -23
FIRST TAKE: French consumer confidence held steady at a weak -23 in July for the third consecutive month. Consumers became more concerned about the outlook for their finances, but less concerned about the outlook for overall living standards.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany]: 96.2
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in Germany were mixed in June, but there has been no sign of a marked turnaround in retail activity as consumers remain reluctant to spend. As stubbornly high unemployment is here to stay, the consumer economy will remain a drag on overall activity.
RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone]: 100.1
FIRST TAKE: Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone rose marginally in July, thanks to small improvements in the services and retail components. The important consumer and industrial components showed no change in July. Europe�s slow and uninspiring recovery seems on track.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom]: -3.0
FIRST TAKE: The Martin Hamblin Gfk monthly consumer sentiment index climbed to -3 in July from -4 the previous month, versus expectations that it would hold steady.
RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom]: 20.3%
FIRST TAKE: The incipient moderation in the British housing market has been interrupted. The Nationwide�s July house price index climbed 2.1% from the month before, pushing the annual rate up to 20.3% - versus the 0.9% m/m and 19.1% y/y increase notched in June.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.25%
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank opted to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of today�s meeting. The decision, which came after last month's unexpected increase in rates, was in line with the consensus, although some market participants had expected a 25 bps move.
RELEASE: Business Survey [France]: 106
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence jumped to 106 in July from a downwardly revised 104 in June. This put the index at its highest level since April 2001. Improvements in orders and output were responsible for the gain as assessments of the outlook weakened.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 6.00%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Poland today elected to boost interest rates by a further 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark reference rate to 6.0%. This follows on the heels of a 50 basis point hike in June - the first increase since August 2000.
RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 95.6
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index showed a marked increase for July. Both the assessment of current conditions as well as expectations recorded sizable gains in July. The index also exceeded expectations for a more moderate improvement. Thus, the index suggests that the moderate expansion currently underway in Europe�s largest economy will continue.
RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 3.2 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The current account surplus for the euro area declined during May. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the euro area registered a current account surplus of �5.8 billion during May, a decline of �3 billion from the previous month. The goods balance was stable, and the surplus on services increased, but the deficit on income flows widened during the month. On the financial side, demand for foreign debt by euro-area residents pushed the balance on the capital account deeper into the red.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Canada]: 4.6%
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in Canada rose 0.5%(m/m) in May, after falling 0.8% in April. Sales increased in five of the eight categories, with increased activity in food and beverages and home furnishings. Excluding auto sales, retail activity rose by a robust 1.4%.
Not much to say ... Eurozone remained relatively unchanged. Norway and Sweden did relatively well. Germany still sucks ass ...
Week Ending August 8
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: 12.4%
FIRST TAKE: Norwegian output came in very strong during June. According to Statistics Norway, total industrial output posted a 6.1% gain from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, which makes for the second consecutive strong monthly gain. Both, manufacturing and oil output were strong in the month, as the late May/early June oil workers� strike did not seem to have disrupted production. Norway�s economy is looking stronger.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: -1.9%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Germany contracted by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in June compared to the previous month. While the data are likely to be revised upward eventually, they suggest that the economic recovery in Germany remains fragile.
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 103.8
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, fairly steady aggregate growth is in store over the next six to eight months, though there are regional disparities. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area increased 0.1 points for the month of June, after falling 0.1 points in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the fifth consecutive month after an upward trend that began in April 2003. Global growth has peaked for the cycle, but a sharp deceleration is not imminent.
RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.2 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The Canadian labor force survey showed a modest gain of 9,000 in payrolls for July. The gain falls short of expectations, and comes after three consecutive months of solid gains in payrolls. The unemployment rate edged down 0.1% to 7.2%.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Spain]: 3.6%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial output in Spain rose 3.6% y/y in June in calendar-adjusted terms, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). May's gain was revised downward to 2.9% from 3.1%.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in the U.K. unexpectedly dipped in June, falling 0.3% month-on-month according to data from the Office for National Statistics. Output held 0.5% above the year-ago level, versus a 0.4% m/m and 1.2% y/y gain in May.
RELEASE: GDP [Sweden]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Swedish real GDP grew 3.3% year-over-year (calendar adjusted) in the second quarter, and expanded by 0.9% from the previous three month period, according to a preliminary estimate released by Statistics Sweden.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.75%
FIRST TAKE: As was widely anticipated, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England opted to raise the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. This is the committee's fifth hike since the current cycle began in November. We anticipate two further hikes in the balance of this year.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the ECB held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (the repo rate)�the central bank�s main policy instrument�would be held constant at 2.0%. A recovery in output is under way, but that improvement is not translating into employment gains. On the price front, inflation has drifted higher, and will move higher still early next year. Adding it all up, monetary policy is on hold until early 2005.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany]: 11,000
FIRST TAKE: Unemployment in Germany increased by 11,000 in July compared to June after seasonally adjusting. The unemployment rate rose from 10.5% in June to 10.6% based on seasonally adjusted data. Thus, structural rigidities have prevented the modest economic recovery currently underway in Germany from benefiting the labor market.
RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone]: 55.3
FIRST TAKE: Growth in euro area service activity held steady during July. According to the Reuters service-sector PMI report, aggregate service activity grew at the same rate in June as the previous month, though growth in new orders weakened somewhat, and the decline in service employment quickened marginally. Growth in the service sector has leveled off, as expectations for employment growth and wage gains have not been realized. As a result, the services are not adding to aggregate growth in the currency union.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Euro Zone]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone retail sales surged 1.8% in June, almost completely reversing the previous month�s sharp contraction in spending. Among the euro-zone nations releasing June data, all showed a gain in sales.
RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 9.0 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone rate of unemployment held steady in June. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the unemployment rate for the month of June registered 9.0% for the third consecutive month. The labor markets in the large economies are drifting sideways. Some of the undertow is easing, but that is not the same thing as saying that employment prospects are improving. Most of the economic improvement is still in output, not employment.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Korea]: 4.4%
FIRST TAKE: Korean inflation spiked in June to 4.4% y/y which was a 16 month high for the northern Asian country. This was attributed to high food prices in the country, as well as high energy costs.
RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone]: 54.7
FIRST TAKE: Euro-zone manufacturing growth bounced back from the deceleration in June. The Reuters purchasing managers� index increased to 54.7 in July from 54.4 during June, returning the index to the May level. The indices for output and new orders both increased, though new orders are still below the May peak. The pace of growth is moderating in nearly all economies around the world. Despite this, the euro-zone manufacturing recovery still has some legs.
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| Originally posted by occrider Norway and Sweden did relatively well. |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider Not much to say ... Eurozone remained relatively unchanged. Norway and Sweden did relatively well. Germany still sucks ass ... Week Ending August 8 RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.2 % Unemployment FIRST TAKE: The Canadian labor force survey showed a modest gain of 9,000 in payrolls for July. The gain falls short of expectations, and comes after three consecutive months of solid gains in payrolls. The unemployment rate edged down 0.1% to 7.2%. RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 9.0 % Unemployment FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone rate of unemployment held steady in June. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the unemployment rate for the month of June registered 9.0% for the third consecutive month. The labor markets in the large economies are drifting sideways. Some of the undertow is easing, but that is not the same thing as saying that employment prospects are improving. Most of the economic improvement is still in output, not employment. |
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RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 32,000 FIRST TAKE: Payroll employment gains were far weaker in July than expected with only 32,000 net new jobs created. The weak result was mainly due to lackluster service job creation; manufacturing employment rebounded. Moreover, the weak June total was revised down, from 112,000 to 78,000 net new jobs. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, declined by 10 basis points, to 5.5%. |
Interesting, seems like france and germany are starting to recover a bit!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3557836.stm
heckuva report
Finally I got unlazy ...
Week Ending August 22
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: As was widely anticipated, the monetary authorities left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.0%, citing favourable inflationary conditions in spite of a strengthening and broadening recovery.
RELEASE: GDP [France]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: French real gross domestic product rose 0.8% in the second quarter, in line with last week�s flash estimate and matching the rate of expansion in the first quarter. Business investment led growth, while net trade was a substantial drag on the overall expansion.
RELEASE: GDP [Taiwan]: 7.7%
FIRST TAKE: Economic activity in Taiwan surged in the second quarter. According to the National Statistics of Taiwan, real GDP in 2004Q2 grew at 7.7% on a year ago basis, not seasonally adjusted, up from 6.7% in 2004Q1.
RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 4.5 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The balance on the current account for the euro area turned negative during June. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the euro area registered a seasonally-adjusted current account deficit of �500 million during June, a decline of �6.5 billion from the previous month. The goods balance deteriorated by �4.3 billion, and the deficit on income increased. On the financial side, net portfolio inflows topped an outflow of net FDI, to drive total net inflows during the month.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 8.7 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro area trade report for June showed a smaller trade surplus. According to Eurostat, import growth outpaced exports to drive the seasonally-adjusted trade balance down to �7.1 billion from �9.1 billion. Trade continues to be supportive of growth, however, as year-to-date exports are growing faster than imports, and the trade balance is more than double one year ago.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Hungary]: 7.4%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian retail sales grew 7.4% in June from a year ago, up from 6.3% in May. The pace of retail sales growth is down substantially from last year's unsustainable rate, and is expected to ease further due to tepid real wage gains.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.6%
FIRST TAKE: In July, the British retail sector ended its longest uninterrupted streak of monthly growth since comparable statistics began in 1986. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), sales dipped 0.4% m/m, exceeding the median forecast for a 0.2% contraction. This, however, by no means suggests overall weakness in the retail trade: sales were still up a substantial 6.6% y/y.
RELEASE: Retail Sales Index [Czech Republic]: 4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Czech retail sales rebounded in June. According to the Czech Statistical Office, retail sales advanced 1.8% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Strong auto sales played a major role in the turnaround.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 2.3
FIRST TAKE: The July report on euro-zone inflation came in very soft. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, consumer prices fell 0.2% during July from the previous month, which pushes the year-ago rate down a tenth of a percentage point to 2.3%. Core inflation fell even more. The turnout was driven by a sharp plunge in clothing prices, which had been elevated of late. Energy prices are higher, and will march higher still in subsequent reports. The turnout reinforces a constant monetary policy through the end of the year.
RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 45.3
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell to its lowest level in one year in August. The drop exceeded expectations for a slightly more moderate decline in the index. Despite the drop recorded for August, the index points to a continuation of the moderate expansion currently underway in Europe�s largest economy.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: -0.40%
FIRST TAKE: June production data for the euro area came in soft. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, industrial production decreased 0.4% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline was driven by a large m/m drop-off in German output, and a moderate decrease in Italy. Manufacturing activity is still growing, however, and one should not put too much emphasis on the June turnout. We expect manufacturing to continue to expand for the remainder of the year.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: -1.4%
FIRST TAKE: According to Statistics Sweden, total industrial production finished-off the second quarter on a weak note, dipping a seasonally adjusted 1.4% month-on-month in June. This contrasts with the 1.1% growth rate notched in May and pulls the expansion over a year ago down to 4.3% from 7.7% the previous month.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 11.0%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary cut its policy rate by 50 bps to 11% today. The size/timing of the rate cut was in line with expectations.
Week Ending August 15
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 8.7%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian industrial production remains strong, up 8.7% from a year ago in June. Industrial production has been growing at rates at or above 9% since late last year, thanks to strong exports. Forward looking indicators point to moderately slower growth going forward, however.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 2.3%
FIRST TAKE: Annual CPI inflation in France slowed for the second consecutive month, to 2.3% in July. Apparel and fresh food prices declined sharply in the month while service inflation accelerated. Annual harmonized inflation also moderated, to 2.6% from last year.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 7.3%
FIRST TAKE: Belgium's industrial production index rose a solid 7.3% on a deseasonalized year-ago basis in May. The initial estimate for April was revised upward to a 2.4% gain from a 2.2% expansion.
RELEASE: GDP [Germany]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Economic growth in Germany accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2004. Real GDP expanded by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. The increase in economic activity was well within expectations.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 12.8%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Czech Statistical Office, industrial output adjusted for work days increased 12.8% in June on a year-ago basis. This is the fourth consecutive month of double-digit, year-over-year growth. Production expanded 1.7% from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
RELEASE: GDP [Netherlands]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: GDP rose 1.0% in the second quarter from the same period in 2003, according to data released today by Statistics Netherlands. This is the second quarter of positive year-on-year growth, and could be a sign of a nascent recovery.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 7.3%
FIRST TAKE: India�s industrial activity continued to expand at a strong pace in June, growing 7.3% on a year-ago basis. Capital goods investment was especially strong in June. The latest numbers affirm another strong quarter of growth in the second quarter of 2004. Early fears of a slowdown thanks to weaker monsoons in July and August have receded, but may still be reflected in lower IP numbers in the near term.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece]: -1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Greece dipped 1.5% year on year in June, according to the nation's statistical service. This more than reverses May's 1.4% gain and is the first dip below year-earlier levels since January.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Indonesia]: 15.0%
FIRST TAKE: Indonesian output decelerated in June. According to Bank Indonesia, growth in industrial production slipped to 15% on a year-ago basis in June from a revised 19.5% in May. Trade data are still firm, but the extended election may sap domestic production some.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: The risks for Europe�s largest economy remain decidedly on the side of economic weakness. Inflation in Germany remained subdued in July recording a mere 1.8% increase compared to the same month one year ago. However, inflation has accelerated compared to the beginning of the year due to higher energy prices.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: The Dutch manufacturing industry is once again showing signs of revival, although recent gains have been extremely limited. According to data released by Statistics Netherlands, industrial production in June was up 0.1% in June 2003. On a monthly basis, manufacturing output fell 0.2%.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.7 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. labour market let out steam for a second consecutive month, according to figures contained in the Office of National Statistics� monthly workforce survey. The underlying data are mixed: the unemployment rate rose, while the employment rate slipped. However, job vacancies rose vis-�-vis a year ago and the number of benefits claimants dropped yet again. The market has eased for two consecutive months, yet nonetheless remains historically very tight.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the Norges Bank held monetary policy constant. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board at the Norges Bank decided to maintain the target for its monetary policy instrument�the sight deposit rate�at 1.75%. Economic growth is still accelerating, but low import prices and rising productivity at home are constraining price pressures. As such, the Norges Bank is likely to hold rates steady through the end of the year.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: The BoJ did not adjust its key monetary settings. Local conditions seem tolerable at present though it looks as if deflation will not end in the short term.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: French output data registered a moderate increase during June. According to Insee, total industrial production increased 0.2% during June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, which put year-ago growth at 2.7%--a decrease from the previous month. Manufacturing output was a bit stronger. French manufacturing is faring better than moost in the euro area.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United Kingdom]: 1.4%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation, as calculated by EU-harmonized standards, dipped 0.3% month on month in July, according to the Office of National Statistics. This beats expectations for a 0.1% drop and pulls the annual rate of price growth down to 1.4%, from 1.6% the previous month. These results reflect the dovish short-term inflationary view held by the Bank of England, and will allow the MPC to maintain a gradualist approach to monetary tightening.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 15.7%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production expanded at a 15.7%pace in June on a year-ago basis, slightly slower than last month. Computer equipment and motor vehicle manufacturing are driving the robust industrial expansion.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: -0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Italy slumped 0.7% in June, the sixth time in the last seven months that output has failed to advance.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Danish industrial production dipped by 0.7% in June after an upwardly-revised May. Still, production was up 4.1% on a year-ago basis, its third consecutive month of solid year-ago comparison.
I wouldn't count on Germany performing better yet ...
http://www.economist.com/agenda/dis...tory_id=3125928
Slow week except for Canada.
Week Ending August 29
RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 95.3
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index declined slightly in August compared to July as expectations for the near term outlook deteriorated while businesses were more sanguine about current conditions. The index suggests that the fragile recovery led by global economic growth will continue.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank opted to raise all three of its monetary policy instruments by 25 basis points at the close of today's meeting. The decision was widely expected as policymakers are attempting to head of rising inflationary pressures in the economy.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 6.50%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Poland today elected to boost interest rates by a greater than expected 50 basis points. The central bank has now increased interest rates by a total of 125 basis points at its last three meetings in an effort to curb inflationary expectations.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Headline inflation rose 2.3% (y/y) in July while core CPI remained unchanged from June at 1.6% (y/y). The largest contributor to overall price pressures was the higher price of gasoline in July, which rose 17.9%(y/y) in July. Some counterbalance to these higher prices was provided by lower prices for vegetables, computer equipment and auto leasing.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Canada]: 4.9%
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales rose 0.2% in June after rising 0.6% in May. Retail activity was supported by buoyant sales at auto dealers and pharmacies. However, five other retail sectors recorded a decline. Housing-related sales were dampened by unseasonably cool weather. Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.5% in June after rising 1.5% in May.
whats up with the updates?
will there be anymore, or are you giving this up?
Rest assured I'm lazy but I'm not that lazy ... a number of factors have conspired against me on this one:
A) I had an electrical fire at my house a month ago. They need to redo the wiring so I've been without electricity and continue to be without electricity until Friday.
B) I'm staying at my gf's who doesn't have internet access.
C) I'm not getting econ updates at my work email address as of a month ago ... I'm guessing a spam filter.
D) I can't access internet email at work.
E) My hotmail account is probably dead by now.
F) I have a gmail invite but I haven't started a new account yet due to above reasons.
G) I'm going to have to register my future gmail account with all my econ sites.
As you can see, this is a "perfect storm" of sorts and I myself haven't seen any economic indicators in a while. The situation should remedy itself by this weekend when I finally get power at home and access to internet email. Therefore you can expect data at the end of next week
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| Originally posted by occrider Rest assured I'm lazy but I'm not that lazy ... a number of factors have conspired against me on this one: A) I had an electrical fire at my house a month ago. They need to redo the wiring so I've been without electricity and continue to be without electricity until Friday. B) I'm staying at my gf's who doesn't have internet access. C) I'm not getting econ updates at my work email address as of a month ago ... I'm guessing a spam filter. D) I can't access internet email at work. E) My hotmail account is probably dead by now. F) I have a gmail invite but I haven't started a new account yet due to above reasons. G) I'm going to have to register my future gmail account with all my econ sites. As you can see, this is a "perfect storm" of sorts and I myself haven't seen any economic indicators in a while. The situation should remedy itself by this weekend when I finally get power at home and access to internet email. Therefore you can expect data at the end of next week |
Week Ending September 17
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: In one of the easiest decisions to predict, the BoJ decided to maintain its pre-existing monetary policy settings. The quantitative easing strategies will remain until consistent inflation is observed.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: French consumer price growth moderated in September, mirroring trends across much of the euro zone. According to INSEE�s national measurement, the CPI rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month on month, while the year-on-year rate of increase slowed to 2.2% from 2.4% in August. EU-wide harmonized inflation cooled for a third successive month, rising 0.2% in the month and only 2.2% in the year, versus 2.2% in August.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: -0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Today�s report on Italian output extends the dreary tone of yesterday�s euro news. According to ISTAT, the Italian statistical agency, industrial production fell 0.8% in August from July, which puts year-ago growth at -3.5%. This is the second m/m drop in Italian output, and comes during the same month as a steep plunge in French production. The euro-area manufacturing rally�if one could ever call it that�seems to be losing some steam.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.7 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. labour market continues to tighten, according to the Office of National Statistics' monthly workforce survey. Joblessness both by claimant count (September) ILO standards (through August) fell, while job vacancies continue to rise. The number of people in employment has risen, while the working age employment rate fell slightly.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 3.9%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production grew a very disappointing 3.9% in August. IP growth for the month came in well below expectations, and the industrial sector is slowing much faster than expected.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 1.9%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation in Europe�s largest economy remained subdued in September. Inflation compared to one year ago decelerated slightly from 2.0% in August to 1.9% in September. Excluding the more volatile energy component, the price level increased by a mere 1.3% compared to one year ago. The risks for Germany�s economy remain decidedly on the side of economic weakness.
Week Ending October 24
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Hungary]: 4.7%
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales grew 4.7% from a year ago in August, down slightly from 7.2% during the previous month. We continue to call for moderating retail sales growth during the second half of 2004.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Italy]: -1.9%
FIRST TAKE: The second, though slight, consecutive contraction of retail sales volume has confirmed the weakness of Italian domestic demand. In August, seasonally-adjusted sales dipped 0.1% m/m, after a contraction of 0.4% occurred in July. Despite the moderate optimism shown by the recent gains in consumer confidence, consumers are still reluctant to spend.
RELEASE: GDP [United Kingdom]: 3.0%
FIRST TAKE: U.K. growth pulled back during the third quarter. According to the Office for National Statistics, real GDP advanced 0.4% during the third quarter from Q2 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Year-ago growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.6%. Service activity remained strong, but manufacturing output displayed a sharp contraction.
RELEASE: Household Consumption Survey [France]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: The first inklings of the long-anticipated slowdown in French consumer spending are finally materializing. Households hung on to their pocketbooks in September, as spending on manufactured goods slid a seasonally adjusted 0.6% month to month; more than reversing August's unrevised 0.5% gain and pulling the year-ago growth rate down to 1.8% from an upwardly revised 5.6% (originally 5.4%).
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Taiwan]: 8.1%
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan�s industrial output grew in September at a slower place than the previous month. National Statistics of Taiwan reported that industrial production grew by an 8.1% year-on-year basis in September 2004, down from an 8.6% y/y growth in August.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.9%
FIRST TAKE: British retail sales came in unexpectedly strong in September, according to the Office for National Statistics. The volume of sales rose 1.0% month on month, versus expectations of stagnation. With respect to the same month of 2003, sales were up a robust 6.9%, exceeding August's upwardly revised 6.7% gain and the most rapid increase since June. Price discounting remains a major supporting factor in the sector's prolonged string of gains.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 3.0 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: According to Eurostat, both exports and imports contracted during August to shrink the trade surplus to �3.0 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis from an upwardly revised �12.8 billion in July. The latest surplus is the smallest in seven months.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Canada]: 3.4%
FIRST TAKE: Canadian retail sales rose 0.8% in August, after rising 0.4% in July. This is the seventh consecutive advance since the beginning of the year. This suggests that consumer activity is still quite healthy in Canada.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: -0.60%
FIRST TAKE: August production data for the euro area came in soft. According to Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, industrial production decreased 0.6% in August from July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Output was softer for utilities, as well as producers of finished goods. A rebound is likely next month, although euro-area production looks to be cresting.
RELEASE: Retail Sales Index [Czech Republic]: 5.4%
FIRST TAKE: Czech retail sales put in a weak performance in August. According to the Czech Statistical Office, retail sales fell 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis. On a year-ago basis, retail sales advanced 2.3%.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 2.1
FIRST TAKE: The report on September euro-zone inflation printed with a moderation in price pressures. According to Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, consumer prices increased 0.2% during September from the previous month, and the year-ago rate fell to 2.1% from 2.3% in August. Core inflation held steady. Thus far, high energy prices do not seem to be flowing through to wages or broader price trends, and the ECB seems more concerned about growth effects than price effects of high oil prices.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 10.5%
FIRST TAKE: The central bank of Hungary cut its policy rate by 50 basis points today, in line with expectations.
Week Ending October 31
RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 95.3
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index increased marginally in October indicating that the expansion of Europe�s largest economy will continue although it lost some momentum. German businesses were slightly more upbeat about their prospects in October than they were during the previous month, while the assessment of current conditions deteriorated marginally.
RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 2.1 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The balance on the current account for the euro area deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month in August. According to the European Central Bank, the euro area registered a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of �400 million during August. Goods exports held steady from the previous month, while imports jumped 4.2%. The balances on services and income increased slightly. On the financial side, the euro area experienced a net inflow in both direct and portfolio investment during the month.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Headline CPI slowed modestly in September to 1.8%(y/y) from 1.9%(y/y) in August. The pace of core CPI also slowed to 1.5%(y/y) in September. Lower prices for vehicle leasing, computer equipment and supplies and natural gas were the primary drivers behind the moderation in price.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 6.50%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Poland left its base rate unchanged at 6.5% today. The central bank did, however, maintain its restrictive stance, suggesting that further hikes may be coming.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank left all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today�s meeting.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Russia]: 103.5
FIRST TAKE: Russian industrial production grew by 3.5% in September on a year-to-year basis, indicating that the economy is still healthy, but shows signs of weakening.
RELEASE: Nationwide Housing Price Index [United Kingdom]: 15.3%
FIRST TAKE: In October, housing prices declined month-to-month for the first time in three years, according to the Nationwide. Housing prices fell 0.4% m/m, more than reversing September's 0.2% gain and pulling annual price growth down to 15.3% from 17.8%. This adds to the ever-expanding pile of evidence that the long-awaited housing market slowdown is in full swing.
RELEASE: Business Survey [France]: 108
FIRST TAKE: French business confidence, as measured by INSEE's monthly sentiment index, ran contrary to expectations this month and posted a further increase to 108 from an unrevised 106. The index now stands at its highest level in more than three years. The gauges measuring respondents' order books and outlook both contributed to the uptick.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom]: -6.0
FIRST TAKE: The Martin Hamblin Gfk consumer sentiment index for October retraced some of the previous month's decline, rising to -6 from an unrevised -7 in September to scotch expectations of a further dip to -8. The modest improvement still leaves the index well below its five-year average of -1; moreover, given the turn in the housing market, higher borrowing costs, and still-high oil prices, the bias is weighted toward continued softness.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Spain]: 3.1%
FIRST TAKE: The general retail index has picked up by 3.1% year-on-year over last September, decelerating its performance compared to last year's growth of 6.7%. In real terms, this index has also experienced a substantial increment compared to the August figure (+0.2% vs. -0.6%). Food products rose 2.2%, while non-food goods grew by 3.8% (y/y, at current prices).
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: The BoJ surprised no-one by retaining its existing monetary policy settings.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland]: -1.2%
FIRST TAKE: On a monthly basis, Finnish industrial production contracted in September by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% from August, according to Statistics Finland. This constitutes the second consecutive month of decline, following the downwardly revised 0.6% drop (originally 0.5%) of the previous month. Year-on-year output growth remains robust, however, as sustained strength in the electronics sector brought the working day adjusted figure to 5.2% y/y in September.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [France]: 9.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The French unemployment rate held at 9.9% in September, demonstrating that although things are getting no worse, the broadening recovery has failed to translate into any significant job creation. The total number of jobless slid by 17,000, but this was insufficient to move the overall rate either as against the month before or a year previous. Joblessness remains a major concern for the sustainability of domestic demand.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France]: -19
FIRST TAKE: French consumer sentiment retrenched slightly in October, giving up some of September's gains as the headline index slid 2 points to -19, near the -23 where it spent much of the summer. The downtick was led by a worsening outlook vis-a-vis personal finances, standard of living, and buying intentions. The dip is in line with expectations.
RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone]: 101.3
FIRST TAKE: Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone improved in October on the back of gains in retailer and construction sentiment. Industrial confidence also improved marginally, although consumer confidence retrenched in October. Europe ambles along its path to economic recovery.
really enjoy this thread, keep up the good work occrider
The situation continues to look somewhat bleak for the EU and Japan ... I'm assembling the past 2 weeks of data now, but the economist just did an analysis of the Euro recovery:
| quote: |
Brutal, in every sense Nov 16th 2004 From The Economist Global Agenda Is the European recovery over before it has really begun?  THE French, it seems, do not use the word �brutal� in quite the way the English do. Jean-Claude Trichet, the French president of the European Central Bank (ECB), reached for this arresting adjective last week to describe the euro�s recent gains against the dollar�the single currency eventually reached a record price of $1.30 on Wednesday November 10th. But according to a translator, writing in the Financial Times, Mr Trichet�s comments were not as alarming as they sound. When the French describe a change as brutal, they mean it is sudden, not cruel or vicious. The economic slowdown in the euro area, however, has been both sudden and savage. The 12-nation block grew at an annual pace of just 1.2% in the third quarter, according to figures released on Friday, after expanding by 2% in the second quarter and 2.8% in the first (see chart). It seems the recovery in the euro area, which has been long awaited, may already be dearly departed. The figures are, of course, backward-looking. The slowdown they record was not caused by this month's uptick in the euro. But the numbers nonetheless bode ill for the future. They suggest that Europe's weakening economies are not in a good position to cope with a strengthening currency. Mr Trichet and other anxious observers will have to wait until later in the month to confirm which parts of the euro area�s giant economy are losing the most steam. But it is likely that both French consumers and German exporters, the euro area�s twin-stroke engine of growth in the first half of the year, have misfired since. Buoyed by higher house prices and a consumer splurge, the French economy was looking quite sprightly in the spring. Indeed, at one point, it seemed as if the French were even outpacing their American rivals. Subsequent data revisions�downwards in France, upwards in America�dispelled that illusion. And figures for the third quarter have punctured French delusions of growth altogether. The French economy crawled along at an annual pace of just 0.4% between July and September. France�s short-lived boomlet owed something to its finance minister, Nicolas Sarkozy. He arm-twisted the supermarkets into lowering their prices and let consumers deduct some of the interest on their loans from their taxes. But Mr Sarkozy�s measures proved to be temporary fixes: consumers� confidence ebbed last month, and their spending on manufactured goods fell in the third quarter. Mr Sarkozy will abandon his post to contest his party�s leadership this month. The good times he promoted have left even before he has. As for Germany, its economy grew by just 0.4% last quarter, at an annualised rate. Germans had to foot a higher import bill, the statistics office said, no doubt because of higher oil prices. But their export earnings were also down. The stronger euro will temper the rise in the dollar price of oil, but it will also blunt the competitiveness of Germany�s exports. Institutional investors and analysts are certainly pessimistic. A widely watched index of their economic expectations, compiled by the ZEW research institute, collapsed in November to 13.9, from a reading of 31.3 the month before. The institute blamed, in part, the euro�s appreciation, which it described, not as brutal, but as �very distinct� nonetheless. The euro area's finance ministers, assembled on Monday for one of their regular meetings in Brussels, are rattled by the euro's rise. But they have so far refrained from calling on the ECB to do anything about it. Other politicians have been less circumspect. It is not enough, they say, for Mr Trichet to talk down the euro with carefully chosen adjectives. He should put the ECB�s money where his mouth is, selling euros and buying dollars to keep the exchange rate stable. The ECB�which last stepped in to the currency markets four years ago, when the euro was worth just 82 cents�will be reluctant to do so again. But even if the single currency's strength is not enough to prompt intervention, it may delay a hike in interest rates. Advocates of foreign-exchange intervention are inspired by the example of the Japanese monetary authorities, who arrested an earlier slide of the dollar with massive purchases of the currency in the first three months of the year. But the Japanese have not intervened since. Indeed, the yen has strengthened alongside the euro, albeit at a slower pace. Fewer than 106 yen are now needed to buy a dollar, compared with about 110 last quarter and over 115 last year. Japan�s exporters are no better placed than Germany�s to cope with the falling dollar. Their sales grew by just 1.5%, at an annualised pace, in the third quarter, after booming by over 15% in the second. As a result, some worry that Japan�s 18-month recovery is now in jeopardy. After growing at an annual rate of more than 6% in the first quarter, output in the world�s second-biggest economy edged up by just 0.3% in the third. With prices continuing to fall (by around 2% over the past year) the yen value of Japan�s output did not grow at all. In its monthly economic report, released on Tuesday, the Japanese government acknowledged the economy's �weak movements� of late. But with consumers still confident (their spending rose by 3.7% in the last quarter) and corporations still profitable, the government expects the recovery to continue. In France, an abrupt, shuddering stop is described as an arr�t brutal. Brutal is again meant metaphorically, just as the English talk of something stopping �dead�. But the slowdown in the European and Japanese economies is, quite literally, brutal and, quite possibly, fatal to their hopes of a sustained recovery. http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3394596 |
Week Ending November 7
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Korea]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: Korean CPI inflation continued to moderate in October, falling from a 3.9% year-on-year rate in September to a 3.8% pace in October.
RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone]: 52.4
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone manufacturing expansion continued to slow in October, as the Reuters purchasing managers� index slid to 52.4 in October from 53.1 in September. This represents the sector's weakest rate of gain since December 2003. Output and new orders both gained in the month, albeit at a slower rate, while industrial employment continued to contract. These results point toward a peak in growth in the third quarter.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence slipped again at the end of October. Sentiment is down across the globe since peaking in early summer. The most pronounced decline has occurred in Asia. Confidence is also off across nearly all industries. Retailers have turned notably less optimistic and weak sales are again at the top of the list of business concerns. While confidence is down, it remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany]: 96.7
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in Germany continued to be weak in September. Sales fell compared to August as consumers remained reluctant to spend due to stubbornly high unemployment and uncertain job prospects. Private consumption will remain a drag on broader economic growth.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany]: 12,000
FIRST TAKE: Unemployment in Germany remains stubbornly high. The number of jobless rose by a seasonally adjusted 12,000 in October compared to September. There are no signs of a turnaround in the labor market.
RELEASE: Reuters Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone]: 53.5
FIRST TAKE: Service sector growth in the euro-zone rebounded modestly in October, scotching expectations of retreat; however, the outlook remains dim. According to the Reuters service sector PMI report, activity in the key services field picked up modestly in October, with the headline index adding 0.2 points to 53.5 - its first rise since May. Outstanding business, however, contracted yet again and the new orders gauge slid to its lowest level since August 2003.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: The Executive Board of the Norges Bank decided to stay its hand once again, and left the prevailing rate of interest - the sight rate - unchanged at 1.75% today. The sight rate has been held at this level since March of this year. Given a swift pace of economic expansion and muted price pressures, our view is that the Bank will elect to hold rates constant for the rest of the year.
RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 8.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone labour market is in the doldrums. The jobless rate came in a 8.9% of the labour force according to Eurostat, unchanged throughout the year now that the statistics agency has revised its figures. Previously April through August were reported at 9.0%. Companies remain loathe to hire in light of the currency area�s uncertain growth prospects and its rather rigid legislation governing hiring, firing, minimum wage, and working hours. The overall measure does disguise important regional differences.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.75%
FIRST TAKE: Further evidence of cooling in the housing market, low and relatively stable inflation, and a raft of soft economic data unsurprisingly prompted the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, in line with expectations, for a fourth consecutive month. The drawn-out bout of slow price growth and softening economic fundamentals has prompted us to push the anticipated quarter-point hike off into the first quarter of 2005.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: In line with expectations, the ECB once again held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Bank�s Governing Council decided to hold the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (the repo rate)� the central bank�s main policy instrument� at 2.0%. This decision comes despite a commodity price-related upsurge in inflation. Growth, however, appears to have plateaued early, with negative implications for 2005.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Spain]: 3.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Spain picked up in September. The calendar-adjusted IP index rose by 3.4% on an annual basis, marking a clear acceleration from the (downwardly-revised) 1.5% annual increase in August. This rise in industrial activity was triggered by an increase across all sectors, especially in terms of energy production.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: -1.6%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial activity in Denmark slid 0.3% month on month (seasonally adjusted) in September, building on August�s decline and further deepening the sector�s malaise. On a year-ago basis, output in September was down 1.6%.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: -0.9%
FIRST TAKE: The Norwegian manufacturing sector remained depressed in September, as output rose a marginal 0.1% m/m (seasonally adjusted). This was offset in the overall index by a strong rebound in oil and gas extraction, which rose a seasonally-adjusted 8.1% m/m to push the headline index to a 5.3% gain.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: -0.4%
FIRST TAKE: The British industrial sector remains in the doldrums. The 0.1% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) increase in manufacturing activity was insufficient to offset the weakness of the previous months. Contractions in activity in both July and August led to an overall 1.4% q/q decline in output in the July-to-September period. Overall industrial activity slid 0.4% m/m, compounding the slide of previous months and scotching expectations of a modest gain.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Euro Zone]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone retail sector is standing still. Total sales rose 0.1% month on month (seasonally adjusted) and were unchanged over the year, according to Eurostat. The monthly contraction in sales in the region's two largest economies, Germany and France, undoubtedly weighed on the result.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: -1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Germany�s manufacturing industry is struggling. Industrial production declined 1.2% in September after a similar decline in August. The slowing global economy is taking a toll on production in Germany.
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 103.7
FIRST TAKE: The OECD LEI held steady during September, and continues to indicate that the pace of aggregate global growth is decelerating.
RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.1 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: Employment in Canada rose by 34,000 in October, which was the second consecutive healthy increase. Despite the large addition to payrolls, the unemployment rate was unchanged in October at 7.1% because people entered the labor force.
Week Ending November 14
RELEASE: Employment [Switzerland]: 3.7%
FIRST TAKE: The Swiss unemployment rate for October has remained unchanged at 3.7%. The year-on-year change shows a reduction of just 0.1 percentage points, as does the seasonally adjusted figure, which has fallen to 3.8%, from 3.9% in September.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Taiwan]: 341.2
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan�s trade surplus decreased in October. The island republic�s trade surplus stood at NT$341 million in October down from nearly NT$750 million in September, according to the Taiwan National Statistics office.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Czech Republic]: 3.5%
FIRST TAKE: The overall upward trend of Czech inflation was confirmed in October. The increase in consumer price accelerated from 3.0% in September to 3.5% in October, the highest reading since March 2002. On monthly basis, the price level increased by 0.5%.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 5.4%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production growth decelerated to 5.4% y/y in September from much stronger growth in the previous months. This is the slowest pace of advance in output so far this year. Soaring office investment continues to drive industrial activity in Turkey.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.6%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence stabilized in early November. This comes after a steady slide in confidence throughout much of the summer and early fall. Confidence is off across the globe, with the most pronounced decline occurring in Asia. Confidence is also off across nearly all industries. Retailers have turned notably less optimistic, and weak sales are again at the top of the list of business concerns. While confidence is down, it remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [United Kingdom]: � -4.5 billion
FIRST TAKE: Britain�s total trade (i.e. goods and services) deficit with the rest of the world narrowed to �2.9 billion in September from a downwardly-revised �3.6 billion the previous month. The �4.5 billion merchandise trade shortfall, which has been widening all year thanks to higher raw materials prices, reversed course modestly and, moreover, was partially offset by a �1.7 billion services surplus. Today�s results have surprised on the upside and hence could have a modestly sterling-positive impact, though only in the short run. Exports, however, surged to their highest level in more than two years.
RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 13.9
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment contracted by 17.4 points and in November stood at 13.9 after the 31.3 touched in October. The indicator is now by far below its historical average of 34.6 points. Expectations had called for a further slide in the index. The index shows increasing concerns about the strength of the German economic recovery in the months ahead.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: The Swedish industrial sector finished off the third quarter on a strong note, advancing 0.6% month on month according to Statistics Sweden. This builds, modestly, on August's 3.4% gain and pushes the year-on-year advance to 5.3%, versus 4.5% the previous month. Swedish industrial concerns have consistently outperformed 2003 by a significant margin throughout the current year, although the m/m slowdown is likely indicative of the recent, rapid advance in commodity prices.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Germany]: 12.0 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: According to the provisional foreign trade statistics released this morning by the Federal Statistical Office, in September 2004 the value of German exported commodities increased to �61.9 billion from �56.3 billion in August and the value of German imported commodities increased to �49.8 billion from �45.2 billion in August, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures. Thus, the foreign trade balance showed a surplus of �12 billion in September 2004.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 3.2%
FIRST TAKE: French industrial production rebounded in September from August's surprise contraction. Once again, the gain was largely due to the automobile sector as the factory closure in the previous month came to an end. Total production (excluding construction) rose 3.2% month over month and 2.9% year on year, seasonally adjusted.
RELEASE: Merchandise Trade [France]: -.79 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: France's merchandise trade balance for September came in at �794 million, pushing the year-to-date goods trade deficit to �3.3 billion versus a surplus of �667 million in the same period of 2003. Import growth exceeded export expansion both of a quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year basis.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production contracted by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in the 12 months to September 2004, failing to reverse the 0.2% y/y decline posted the previous month. With inflation picking up in October, and consumer confidence on a downward trajectory, weak industrial output figures are now a major cause for concern.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Belgium's headline industrial production (excluding construction) suffered an annual slowdown in September, growing by 1% on a year-on-year basis. This index has been revised downward for August, rising by 6.1% (y/y). Construction activity plunged by 7.4% (y/y), slowing from an upwardly revised 5.1% climb last month.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production for September has shown a small increase of 0.8% y/y. Like most of the other euro-zone economies, this increase follows a fall in August. Manufacturing output has achieved no change from the previous year's figure.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Hungary]: 6.3%
FIRST TAKE: The headline consumer price index posted a 6.3% increase over the 12 months to October, and gained 0.5% on the previous month. Core inflation notched a 5.6% year-on-year rise. A significant chunk of price increases is attributable to recent changes in VAT and excise taxes.
RELEASE: Machinery Orders [Japan]: -12.4%
FIRST TAKE: Volatile Japanese core machinery orders dipped 1.9% m/m in September, slowing from growth of 3.1% m/m in August and falling short of the expected 0.7% increase.
RELEASE: GDP [Germany]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: According to the first release of German national account data, in the third quarter of 2004, economic growth was markedly slower than in the first half of the year. Real GDP expanded 0.1% compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. These data are preliminary but come in well below expectations of a 0.3% gain.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 8.8%
FIRST TAKE: According to the data released this morning by the Czech Statistical Office, the Czech industrial production index (seasonally adjusted) increased by 0.5% in September on a monthly basis. The performance was below analysts' expectations.
RELEASE: GDP [Netherlands]: 1.4%
FIRST TAKE: Dutch real GDP advanced by a nonseasonally adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter from the same period in 2003, according to figures released by Statistics Netherlands today. This is now the third consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth, and comes as somewhat of a relief amid the recent flurry of less than upbeat data. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP posted a 0.2% gain.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 7.7%
FIRST TAKE: India's industrial production numbers continued to moderate in September, expanding 7.7% y/y on the back of 7.9% y/y in August. Weaker than expected monsoon rains in both July and August continued to take their toll on this indicator, although ongoing gains in non-farm manufacturing output still serve the series well.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Ireland]: 5.2%
FIRST TAKE: Irish seasonally adjusted industrial production experienced a 5.2% y/y increase for September, and a rise of 4.1% m/m. This is a positive movement following August's dismal performance, whilst high-tech and chemical industries show a strong recovery.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Sweden]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation accelerated modestly in Sweden in October, although price growth remains well below that in other European countries and will pose no risk to the central bank's accommodative monetary stance for the foreseeable future. The CPI rose 0.3% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 0.8% over the year, up from 0.6% y/y in September.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 6.7%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production increased by 6.7% in the 12 months to September, on both a working-day and a nonseasonally adjusted basis, according to figures released today by the Central Statistical Office. Output has returned to a brisk rate of expansion following August's disappointing 3.6% y/y growth.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Indonesia]: -6.7%
FIRST TAKE: The Indonesian industrial sector abruptly reversed course in September, with output slipping 6.7% y/y - more than doubling August's downwardly-revised 3.2% retreat (originally: -2.4%). The sector has been in contractionary mode since the early summer.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 2.1%
FIRST TAKE: French consumer prices, as calculated by EU-harmonized norms, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month on month in October to put the annual rate of inflation at 2.3%. The increase was within expectations and was driven unsurprisingly by the upsurge in energy costs.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Spain]: 3.6%
FIRST TAKE: Annual Spanish consumer inflation was 3.6% in October, mainly due to an increase in transport costs, up by 0.4 percentage points from September's rate. Monthly Inflation was 1.0%, rising from the 0.2% pace notched last month. The annual core CPI gain maintained its September level of 2.9%.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: According to ISTAT, the Italian statistical agency, the industrial production index rose 0.5% in September from August, which puts year-ago growth at 0.8%. After the (upwardly revised) 0.7% drop in August the more reliable September figure confirmed the substantial weakness of the Italian industrial activity.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Netherlands]: -1.9%
FIRST TAKE: Dutch retail sales dropped 1.9% in September from the same month of 2003, failing to reverse course after the 5.4% y/y contraction recorded in the previous month.
UK kicking some butt as usual. Nothing new from the EU ...
Week Ending November 21
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Poland]: 4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Headline consumer price inflation in Poland accelerated to a non-seasonally adjusted 4.5% year on year this October from the 4.4% y/y increase notched in the previous month, according to today's release by the Central Statistical Office. This figure was contrary to market expectations for a slowdown in the year-on-year rate to 4.3% for the month.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has stabilized during the past several weeks, after slipping throughout much of the summer and early fall. Sentiment has firmed across the globe, even in Asia, where it has fallen sharply since peaking this past summer. Confidence has also stabilized across nearly all industries, although retailers are notably less upbeat than they were a few months ago. Nearly all businesses say that sales are their most significant concern. Current business confidence levels are consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United Kingdom]: 1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price growth reversed course in October, following on the heels of four consecutive months of moderation in the annual growth rate. The CPI climbed 0.3% month on month, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the ONS, pushing the annual growth up to 1.2% from September�s low of 1.1%. An inflationary upswing in those sectors most exposed to petroleum prices was partially offset by sustained goods price disinflation.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [India]: -$2.3 Bil.
FIRST TAKE: India's trade deficit shrank marginally in October, but remains near a record high at $2.3 billion. The high oil bill and rising global commodity prices continue to weigh on India's import tab, despite robust export growth.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.7 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: Figures from the Office of National Statistics have revealed that the unemployment rate in the U.K., as measured by the claimant count, has remained at the three-decade low of 2.7%. The monthly survey has also revealed that the number of job vacancies has fallen, whilst average earnings excluding bonuses have continued to climb to 4.3% y/y.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: As predicted by Economy.com, industrial production for the euro zone has shown a modest rebound of 0.5% m/m for September, and a rise of 2.9% y/y. The strongest improvements in production were seen in Portugal (+4.4%), Ireland (4.1%) and in Greece (3.5%), whilst both Germany and Finland recorded a fall of 1.2% each.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 2.4
FIRST TAKE: The report on September euro-zone inflation printed with an increase in price pressures. According to Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, consumer prices increased 0.3% during October from the previous month, and the year-ago rate rose to 2.4% from 2.1% in September. Core inflation held steady, and higher energy costs were the most important factor pushing up prices.
RELEASE: Retail Sales Index [Czech Republic]: 3.1%
FIRST TAKE: Czech retail sales continue to follow the trend of preceding months in September and increased slightly. According to the Czech Statistical Office, constant price retail sales advanced 1% on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis. On a year-ago basis, retail sales advanced 2%.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.0%
FIRST TAKE: Headline results released today from the Office of National Statistics highlight a slowdown in growth for the retail sales index. U.K. retail sales for October show seasonally adjusted volume figures of 6.0% y/y, that is 0.4% lower than in September on a month-on-month basis. Sales decreased in all sectors except for clothing and footwear stores.
RELEASE: GDP [France]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: French real gross domestic product expanded 0.1% quarter on quarter, according to seasonally adjusted statistics released this morning by INSEE. This confirms the preliminary estimate of some weeks ago, but the more detailed underlying data confirm that the weakness was widespread; only the public sector and stock variations were net positive for quarterly growth.
RELEASE: GDP [Taiwan]: 5.3%
FIRST TAKE: Economic growth in Taiwan slowed down in the third quarter. According to National Statistics of Taiwan, real GDP in 2004Q3 grew at 5.3% on a year-ago basis, not seasonally adjusted, down from 7.9% (revised from 7.7%) in Q2.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Poland]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial output in Poland rose a modest non-seasonally adjusted 3.3% year on year in October of this year. This result constitutes a significant deceleration from the 9.5% y/y rate notched in the previous month, and is below market expectations of 5.2% y/y. Output fell 0.5% in the September-to-October period.
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider UK kicking some butt as usual. Nothing new from the EU ... |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by St_Andrew well, UK is in the EU |
. And it appears wise that they decided to stay out of it for now ...
Week Ending November 28
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 3.1 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro zone trade surplus (non-seasonally adjusted) came to �3.1 billion in September, up modestly from an unrevised �3.0 billion in August. Import growth exceeded export expansion on an annual basis for the third consecutive month, once again by a substantial margin.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 10.0%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary decided to reduce its base rate by 50 basis points to 10.00% today.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Canada]: 4.7%
FIRST TAKE: Retail spending rose 0.2%(m/m) in September, which was the fifth consecutive monthly gain. On a year ago basis, retail sales were up 4.7%(y/y). Retailers' total sales volumes amounted to $29.1 billion worth of goods and services. This continues a healthy pace of sales, as the Canadian economic recovery gathers steam and the labor market continues to improve.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 26.0%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has leveled off during the past month. This comes after a more or less steady decline throughout much of the summer and early fall. Sentiment has firmed the most in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence remains notably soft. Confidence has also stabilized across nearly all industries, although retailers continue to become less upbeat. Sales are the principal concern of most businesses. Current business confidence levels are consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Hungary]: 5.0%
FIRST TAKE: On a calendar adjusted basis, retail sales increased by 5.0% year on year in September, slightly improving upon the 4.7% y/y performance of the previous month. In the August-to-September period, retail trade gained a seasonally adjusted 0.3%, according to the Central Statistical Office.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Taiwan]: 2.9%
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan�s industrial output grew in October but at a much slower place than the previous month. National Statistics of Taiwan reported that industrial production grew by nearly 3% on a year-on-year basis in October 2004, down from an 8.2% y/y growth in September.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Italy]: 0.5 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: According to ISTAT, the Italian statistical office, exports toward non-EU countries decreased 7.5% in October 2004 compared to the same month in 2003. In the same period, imports surged 11.4% y/y. The balance of trade with non-EU countries came to �0.5 billion whereas in October 2003 the deficit was �0.8 billion.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: In October, headline CPI rose 0.2%(m/m) and 2.3% (y/y) compared to a 1.8% rise in September. Soaring gasoline prices were responsible for much of the rise in headline CPI. Core CPI rose by 1.4% (y/y), following a 1.5% rise in September.
RELEASE: Business Survey Indicators [Belgium]: -5.8
FIRST TAKE: The balance of opinion of the National Bank of Belgium�s economic barometer, more colloquially known as the �Belgian leading indicator�, collapsed in November as a result of sharp falls in both manufacturing and retailing confidence. The headline index slid to -5.8 from a level of -0.3 in both September and October.
RELEASE: GDP [Spain]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Spanish real GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.6% quarter on quarter and 2.6% year on year in the July-to-September period, according to detailed statistics released by the national statistics institute, INE. These results match the preliminary estimate published earlier this month.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [Italy]: -2.0%
FIRST TAKE: In September, Italian retail sales shrank for the third consecutive month confirming the retrenchment of consumer spending in the summer months. Seasonally adjusted sales dipped 0.2% m/m, after contracting of 0.1% and 0.4% in August and July, respectively.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 6.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland decided to leave its reference rate unchanged at 6.50% today, in line with expectations. Even though today's release reiterated the council's restrictive policy bias, the pause in the tightening cycle now stretches to three consecutive months.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Spain]: -6.3 billon euros
FIRST TAKE: Spanish exports registered an annual rise of 3.4% y/y in September, while imports showed a much larger increase, jumping by 11.1%. This triggered a 29.6% annual increase in the trade deficit.
RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: -0.3 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The current account balance of the euro zone slid for a fifth consecutive month in September. According to ECB figures, the single currency area registered a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of �3.2 billion in the month. Small goods and services surpluses failed to offset much larger deficits in the income and current transfers balances. On the financial side, euroland registered a solid inflow of both direct and portfolio investment.
RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 94.1
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index declined for the second consecutive month in November indicating a further weakening of Europe�s largest economy. German businesses continued to reveal concerns about the future, while in November the assessment of current conditions deteriorated for the first time since June.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank left all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today�s meeting.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Singapore]: 2.4%
FIRST TAKE: Singapore�s manufacturing output surged 5.1% m/m in October, following a -0.7% m/m contraction in the previous month. The consensus pointed to a rise of just 1.5%.
RELEASE: GDP [Switzerland]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: As predicted, Swiss GDP for the third quarter of this year has shown a modest increase of 0.4% since the second quarter, and a year-on-year rise of 1.8%.
RELEASE: Business Confidence [Sweden]: 5.0
FIRST TAKE: There were mixed results with respect to business confidence in Sweden in the current month. According to the monthly indices prepared by the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), manufacturing sentiment remains stable, construction confidence continues to improve, and retailers were more pessimistic in the month.
RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Index [Sweden]: 9.1
FIRST TAKE: The Swedish consumer confidence index prepared by the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) slid for the third month running in November, dipping to 9.1 from 10.7 in October. The upswing in sentiment over the summer months appears to have come to an end.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Hong Kong]: HK$-0.25 Bil.
FIRST TAKE: Total exports from the enclave of Hong Kong rose
16.1% y/y in October (in value terms), while total imports rose 13.3% y/y and re-exports climbed 16.2% y/y. These results exceed market expectations, but are well below the bonanza performance of midsummer.
RELEASE: ECB Monetary Development (Monetary Aggregates) [Euro Zone]: 5.8%
FIRST TAKE: According to the measurement of the European Central Bank, the annual rate of growth of M3 declined to 5.8% in October 2004, from 6.0% in September 2004. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 over the period August 2004 to October 2004 was 5.8%, compared with 5.7% in the period July 2004 to September 2004.
RELEASE: GDP [Hong Kong]: 1.9%
FIRST TAKE: Real gross domestic product growth in the Hong Kong Special Administrative region slowed to 1.9% quarter on quarter in the July to September period, from a 2.6% outturn in Q2.
RELEASE: KOF Leading Indicator [Switzerland]: 0.7
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the KOF leading indicator of Swiss business expectations recorded a fall in November. The gauge fell to 0.71 from a revised 0.79 (originally: 0.76) in October; the indicator is seemingly on a downward trend, following a recent 3�-year high of 1.10 experienced in July.
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| Originally posted by occrider Yes but it's not a part of the Eurozone . And it appears wise that they decided to stay out of it for now ... |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by St_Andrew and as a currency it seems like people put much more trust in the euro than the US dollar |
. Anyway a lot euro indicators this week ... in case you haven't noticed by now, it looks like all the big Euro indicators come out a the beginning of the month while all the US indicators come out at the end. Canada seems to be doing well ...
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