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-- Lebanon on brink of civil war?
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quote:

Originally posted by George Smiley Because it completely ignores what's going on inside Lebanon, and considering that is the most important factor, it renders the "clash of civilisations" about as useful as brown toilet paper...

You guys don't get the big picture then. Both sides are supported by outside powers. The Lebanese government gets support with money and weapons from the west. Hezbollah gets all its support and weapons from the east (Iran & Syria). The outside powers play a very important role in the conflict in Lebanon.

You're both right - there is a clash of regional and global powers here, as well as political clashes within the country.
The war in Lebanon to a large degree started around the same time Syria's Assad was about to be formally blamed for the assasination of Harriri. Iran was only too willing to help persuade Hezbollah to overly provoke Israel to the point it would have no choice but to respond harshly. Since Israel was already battling Hamas in the Gaza strip, a moderate response in Southern Lebanon would have been seen as weak by Hezbollah and Iran. Furthermore, b/c much of the media was focused on Lebanon, this allowed Israel to respond in an equally harsh manner (if not moreso) in Gaza towards Hamas. Israel's biggest problem? It had a an incompetent defense minister at the time, unlike now with Barak in charge.
BTW, Israel might embrak on another operation in Gaza very soon for a couple of reasons:
a) Hamas is constantly firing rockets into Israel, mainly to Sderot, but also to larger cities like Ashkelon. A few days ago one Israeli old woman suffered a direct hit and died
b) Hamas's negotiations skills leave a lot to be desired
c) Israel's prime minister is currently in the media spotlight due to a corruption scandal, and may deflect attention away from him via operations in Gaza.

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton You guys don't get the big picture then. Both sides are supported by outside powers. The Lebanese government gets support with money and weapons from the west. Hezbollah gets all its support and weapons from the east (Iran & Syria). The outside powers play a very important role in the conflict in Lebanon.

Nobody's denying that outside forces play a big part in what's happening in Lebanon, but if that's all you can see then your missing the most important factors. Lebanese groups use these outside powers probably more than they are used by them, and as we've seen, they don't particularly seem to care which powers they get support from, and certainly don't fit into your narrow definition of "East" groups or "West" groups.

Groups that fought alongside the Palestinians against Israel and the Christian militias are now, according to you, Western puppets, and the largest Christian party is apparently an Iranian puppet because it has allied itself with Hizballah (and also lets not forget the Shia of Lebanon celebrated when Israel first entered the country!)

You need to look into Lebanon in a lot more detail than you are doing because "clash of civilisation" arguments are pretty lazy and usually fall flat on their arse at the slightest bit of research into a specific issue...

quote:

Originally posted by CHRles You're both right - there is a clash of regional and global powers here, as well as political clashes within the country. The war in Lebanon to a large degree started around the same time Syria's Assad was about to be formally blamed for the assasination of Harriri. Iran was only too willing to help persuade Hezbollah to overly provoke Israel to the point it would have no choice but to respond harshly. Since Israel was already battling Hamas in the Gaza strip, a moderate response in Southern Lebanon would have been seen as weak by Hezbollah and Iran. Furthermore, b/c much of the media was focused on Lebanon, this allowed Israel to respond in an equally harsh manner (if not moreso) in Gaza towards Hamas. Israel's biggest problem? It had a an incompetent defense minister at the time, unlike now with Barak in charge. BTW, Israel might embrak on another operation in Gaza very soon for a couple of reasons: a) Hamas is constantly firing rockets into Israel, mainly to Sderot, but also to larger cities like Ashkelon. A few days ago one Israeli old woman suffered a direct hit and died b) Hamas's negotiations skills leave a lot to be desired c) Israel's prime minister is currently in the media spotlight due to a corruption scandal, and may deflect attention away from him via operations in Gaza.

Israel/Palestine thread -----------------> http://www.tranceaddict.com/forums/...srael+palestine

quote:

Originally posted by George Smiley Yea I heard that too at the time and my personal theory about the kidnapping is that Iran wanted to deflect attention away from its nuclear programme (weren't there international talks at the time that would have concentrated on Iran's nuclear programme had it not been for the outbreak of hostilities between Hizballah/Lebanon and Israel?) However, I still think Hizballah and Iran are two mutually beneficial partners who help each other, rather than Hizballah being merely an Iranian proxy. It's useful for America and their supporters to claim Iran controls Hizballah becuase as Iran is the new bogey man* then it becomes alot easier for America to be hostile towards Hizballah (on Israel's behalf) Portraying Hizballah as Iran's proxy allows America to ignore any localised factors effecting Lebanon (such as the constant looming threat of Israel) and concentrate solely on defending Israel's point of view. They can't bring themselves to think there might actually be a good reason for Hizballah's existance, because that would lead them into criticism of Israel...

i think you're confusing "proxy" with "stooge".

i really don't think all that support coming from iran is an "untied grant". anyway, if i have time today i might go do some research and see....

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN i think you're confusing "proxy" with "stooge". i really don't think all that support coming from iran is an "untied grant". anyway, if i have time today i might go do some research and see....

I don't think it's untied support either. What I'm saying is that both parties benefit from the relationship and that Hizballah does not necessarily do everything Iran tells them to, nor does everything that Hizballah do have to have been ordered by, or given the approval of, Iran.

quote:

Originally posted by George Smiley Hizballah does not necessarily do everything Iran tells them to, nor does everything that Hizballah do have to have been ordered by, or given the approval of, Iran.

there's an entire justice system in Argentina that would like to have a word with you

quote:

Originally posted by Q5echo there's an entire justice system in Argentina that would like to have a word with you

You're fucking clever aren't ya?

quote:

Originally posted by George Smiley You're fucking clever aren't ya?

me? no. i'm dumb as a fucking post...just not in denial

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