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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: The economy is improving

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT What exactly is it that other nations will buy from us?

Software, books, music, porn, and pretty much everything we used to pirate because we couldn't afford the real thing

(Seriously, it is a good thing, depending on how you see it... we're having the exact opposite problem here in Brazil, because our goods have suddenly become more expensive).

krypton, your swings in sentiment are a bit erratic my man.. You went from bull to bear to bull in less than 3 months.

Personally I'm bullish on everything right now..lol. First we had the dot com bubble then the housing bubble... Guess what bubble is being blown now? The EVERYTHING bubble. With the amount of money being printed worldwide, I see no reason for prices to decline on any assets at all. For the first time in history I expect stocks and commodities to soar together, rather than going in opposite directions. Stock markets will go up, housing prices will stabilize and start going up again, as will prices for agriculture, energy, metals, etc. Unemployment will start declining soon too. When you throw a multi trillion dollar party, a little temporary euphoria is inevitable. Just be sure you get out before the bill comes due.

P.S. I don't follow Gamestop's stock but am a a gamer, and noticed Gamestop has been having buy 2 get 1 free sales almost every other week lately..as opposed to 1-2 times a year as they used to. This could be a sign they are struggling to meet their numbers. Just fYI

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: The economy is improving

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT See, what you fail to realize is that the United States is a nation of consumption rather then production.

yeah, and services.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT What exactly is it that other nations will buy from us?

lols, come on man. i provided a link and everything. tourism, investment, agriculture, missile-guided dinosaurs with lasers. having a dominating currency in this economic climate isn't necessarily a good thing. if you want to stimulate demand, but can't, having an external provider of that demand can make a difference, even if the terms of trade re the increased demand isn't quite what it once was.

its a balancing act, and i think your assertion that a weaker currency is automatically in the "bad" column, to be a little presumptuous.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT And the fact that we are such large consumers further proves my point that a weaker currency is going to hurt us even more.

what you've done is ignored the link i kindly provided and focused on one only 1 part of my argument.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT I never said that it has to be "the strongest currency of all time." Now you are just making things up.

its implicit in your statements criticising dollar devaluation. if devaluation isn't acceptable, then the US must remain the dominant currency forever.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT And the trend is that our currency is taking a nose dive.

and your trend is engaging in over-dramatic proclomations.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT Not sure what your "nationalisatic" comment even means. Maybe you'd like to expand on that.

because your over-riding concern regarding your own currency, always and above the wants or needs of the rest of the world is classic nationalism.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT I never said it was the end of the world. Of course the world will go on. It always has.

well, cool then

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT I never said it was Not sure why speaking the truth about the current state of affairs is being taken so personally by yourself though.

yeah, as always im a bit of bastard. sorry. its just that the centre-rights on this board sometimes get under my skin with what i see as dishonest portrayals of specific issues. for all you know, right now, a currency devaluation could be very good for the US. we simply dont know at this juncture. but capitalizt and you are all too often there to provide absolute, rigid statements i feel are inaccurate.

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT Also not sure why speaking the truth is doom and gloom talk. Is it not a fact that the US dollar is at a record low for the year? Is it not a fact that unemployment and foreclosures are on the rise in the US as well? As a US citizen, this is a little troubling to me. No, it's not the end of the world, but would you like to be associated with any of those statistics?

well of course not; i have a lot of sympathy for everyone caught up in the economic mess. and you have every right to be concerned. but i DID focus my initial question on the currency issue after all i dont think it should be included as a signifcant issue in the same sentence as unemployment or foreclosures

Christ some people are slow... worst of it down this way was over months ago and it was pretty easy to see coming well over a year before that.
In estate its starting to boom and go hard where I am, plan a firesale of stuff in about a month and the buyers are just about ready to gnaw someone's arm off... frisky to say the least. Currency, took a punt and bought a lot of US$ when I could get it in the high 90's, still waiting for the AU$ to depreciate some more before I offload it.

Big trip tomorrow house hunting up north, can't sleep

I'm not buying shares at the moment. I'm also doing voluntary work at the local orphanage.

for all of you skeptics of stock market investment...

I bought 1100 shares of Ford Motor last year at around a buck a share.


its trading at 8.27 right now.....


the colonel profits!

It's not improving. It's a slight blip, and will go back down. I'm the bearer of bad news. keeping it real.

quote:

Originally posted by colonelcrisp the colonel profits!

Nice!
Shares are still to scary at the moment, going to leave them awhile before having anything serious to do with them.

quote:

Originally posted by Lilith Nice! Shares are still to scary at the moment, going to leave them awhile before having anything serious to do with them.

like i have told karim numerous times. only invest in sectors you have a good understanding of. If you make smart bets you can make money on your own, picking and choosing your own stocks to invest in. If you want a nice and balanced portfolio, go through a broker or an investment fund, it will pay off to have someone managing your money who knows what the hell they are doing.

Shares paid for the majority of my first house, so I'm ok with managing my own portfolios. Just not had the time to research and forecast in that area.

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN hmmmm. didn't you make some noise about the fall of the stock market after obama was sworn in? i can go and hunt for your exact quote if you make me, but i don't really wanna type "the17sss" and "obama hate" into the TA search engine in case i break it

I did... I did. But the peak was 14,000 and just looking at the stock market is not a good indicator- what kind of recovery could it be if job losses are still mounting and nobody is hiring? All indicators are that things are worse, or going to get worse than are being reported in the short term. That massive 18% drop in tax revenue to the govt., combined with out of control spending and soaring deficits is a harbinger of bad news to come.

Besides, I don't know if Krypton is the best source of economic advice. About 6 months ago I asked him hypothetically, if he had $50K lying around what he would do with it. He said he'd definitely invest a big portion of that in Caterpillar and/or other heavy construction corporations like that. Since then, Caterpillar has purged 30,000 jobs, seen profits head into the toilet, and closed down several plants. And, the construction industry as a whole is tanking. Good thing I didn't take his advice and invest in Caterpillar.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...prss=rss_nation

FAO all of you: start being funny or go back to the PDD

quote:

Originally posted by dj_alfi FAO all of you: start being funny or go back to the PDD

In other news, Fapping stock has increaset 153% due to my complete fail at picking up vag on the weekend. The spank bank has seen unparalleled earnings this weekend.

BUY!

...

i mean SELL!

colonel please also post when you pick a loser(s)

quote:

Originally posted by The17sss I did... I did. But the peak was 14,000 and just looking at the stock market is not a good indicator- what kind of recovery could it be if job losses are still mounting and nobody is hiring? All indicators are that things are worse, or going to get worse than are being reported in the short term. That massive 18% drop in tax revenue to the govt., combined with out of control spending and soaring deficits is a harbinger of bad news to come.

Well, employment is a lagging indicator, so I wouldn't worry too much about us still shedding jobs.

The huge drop in tax revenue on the other hand is definitely troubling, though not altogether unexpected. The problem is that raising taxes in the middle of a recession is bound to make the recession worse, but the only alternative we have is to run a huge deficit. Some of it could be reduced by postponing what will likely prove to be quixotic misadventures, such as health care reform, but we also don't want to reduce government spending too much, since much of it helps stimulate the economy.

It's generally wise to run a substantial deficit during a recession; the problem is that we've been running one for most of the past 50 years, even when we were not in a recession, so we put ourselves in a huge hole before the recession even hit. That was retarded, and there's plenty of blame to go around, but now we just have to pick our poison between a truly colossal public debt or a tax hike that will exacerbate all of our immediate economic problems. Either way, recovery is going to be a long and rocky road. I do think we are on that road, but that shouldn't be read to suggest that the economy is going to be in remotely good shape anytime soon.

let it be known that Arbiter ruined the Lulz!

we're running out of options and things are going to get worse in the next couple years. That's MA's birdseye view

quote:

Originally posted by colonelcrisp let it be known that Arbiter ruined the Lulz!

I will turn your COR into a graveyard for lulz!

Re: Re: The economy is improving

quote:

Originally posted by DOOMBOT The stock market goes up a little and this is your indication that the economy is improving? Meanwhile, back on planet earth, the dollar hit a new low for the year and unemployment and foreclosure rates are still on the rise.

Inflation means anything priced in dollars goes up in market price, yes that means stocks too. But I wouldn't expect a glorified bank teller to know this...

kingrajalayshins

quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt krypton, your swings in sentiment are a bit erratic my man.. You went from bull to bear to bull in less than 3 months.

From March to June, the market went up like 20%, then I was afraid of a bear market rally. But then leading economic indicators began showing that this is for real. Car sales are up huge because of the "Cash for clunkers" stimulus. Real estate has finally shown improvement. And now all three leading American stock indexes have surpassed important psychological levels within just 2 weeks of each other. So my fears of a bear market rally subsided.

quote:

Personally I'm bullish on everything right now..lol. First we had the dot com bubble then the housing bubble... Guess what bubble is being blown now? The EVERYTHING bubble. With the amount of money being printed worldwide, I see no reason for prices to decline on any assets at all. For the first time in history I expect stocks and commodities to soar together, rather than going in opposite directions. Stock markets will go up, housing prices will stabilize and start going up again, as will prices for agriculture, energy, metals, etc. Unemployment will start declining soon too. When you throw a multi trillion dollar party, a little temporary euphoria is inevitable. Just be sure you get out before the bill comes due.

These are the normal effects of the business cycles.

quote:

P.S. I don't follow Gamestop's stock but am a a gamer, and noticed Gamestop has been having buy 2 get 1 free sales almost every other week lately..as opposed to 1-2 times a year as they used to. This could be a sign they are struggling to meet their numbers. Just fYI

I'm not really relying on anecdotal evidence in this investment.

quote:

Originally posted by The17sss I love how desperate the media is trying to protect Obama and the economy, as if it's getting better. The stock market is up... great. Got a little construction and home buyer increase, great. We even have car sales up because of the cash for clunkers debacle...er, I mean program. But the reality? 3.5 million jobs have been lost in the last 6 months, welfare roles are the highest they've ever been, and without companies hiring, which they aren't, it's a house of cards. For example: 1) Home prices are rising while consumer confidence is declining. According to CNN, "The Conference Board said (last) Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index, which retreated last month, fell to 46.6, down from 49.3 in June. Economists were expecting a reading of 49. It would take a reading above 90 to signal that the economy is on solid footing.": http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=a_VZ2C7gweKY Also according to Bloomberg: GDP shrinking greater than expected in last quarter, and economy worse than anticipated: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aNivTjr852TI 2) Tax revenues show the biggest drop since the Great Depression- a whopping 18%. This is some ominous shit because guess how that money is going to be recovered? That's right... raising taxes since deficits will now expand beyond the white house's rosey projections. Corporate tax revenues are down 57%, personal income tax revenues are down 22%, and Medicare tax revenue is going to drop for the 3rd time ever. What's interesting is that during the Reagan and Bush years, the government received the highest amount of tax revenue from those evil corporations that liberals claim get all the breaks. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_plummeting_taxes 3) Time Warner, Verizon, Caterpillar (over 30,000 laid off)... all seeing profits head into the tank and laying off thousands of workers; Obama's General Motors is going to have to lay off another 9000 workers by 2012. June job loss estimates "unexpectedly" exceeded estimates (another 475K of them), NYC apartments sales are down over 50%, demands are growing bigger for a shrinking number of taxpayers, Michigan(17%)/Oregon(16%)/CA/Ohio/Arizona are all seeing well past double digit unemployment. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...Q6cBtAD99O35K01 http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/29/new...sion=2009072911 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gm_factory_workers http://www.cnbc.com/id/31703460 4) 90% of metro areas saw a rise in unemployment again in June: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...zQvKvwD99OEJMO0 5) 1200 Rhode Island businesses are about to be shut down because of sales taxes they can't pay: http://www.projo.com/news/content/B...29.3c1d325.html 4) We are trying to borrow ANOTHER $200 billion, and are having a hard time finding lenders, which is devlauing our Tresuries: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32201716 5) The city/county of Birmingham, Alabama just laid off 2/3 of it's workers: http://www.reuters.com/article/dome...E5724P720090803 6) Arizona is broke and trying to sell its government buildings: http://www.azcentral.com/news/elect...assets0729.html 7) Our annual deficit reached over $1 trillion for the first time EVER.... while we are still trying to borrow (Bush did not get a chance to address the FY2009 budget, as the Democrats in Congress kept postponing budgeting for FY09 until Bush left office). http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124750836648634011.html 8) According to the Wall Street Journal, the economy is even worse than you think, as the average rate of unemployment is longer than its ever been since tracking that data in 1948. AND, Obama wants to expand those benefits from 79 weeks to 92!!!! 92 fuckin weeks of free handouts? Unreal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124...ss_opinion_main 9) And finally, here's a little blurb about how TARP is driving up oil prices. http://newsbusters.org/blogs/jeff-p...ving-oil-prices But the economy is making a comeback baby!!

Do you realize that unemployment figures are a lagging indicator. Employment is usually the last thing to improve when the economy recovers.

quote:

Originally posted by Max Thomson go tell the thousands of people who've been laid off how your nice numbers should make them feel better now that the economy is improving.

wah wah wah wah wah wah fuck off.

Day 1 of my GME investment. I bought at $22.60, it's now $24.40...

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