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On aggregate it will almost certainly be bad for the economy, dependent on what kind of deal we can thrash out. What's annoying me is that the government are setting out their best case scenario and the EU are giving their harshest warnings, and all we're getting is a blizzard of articles and commentary chattering about this incompatibility.

The obvious truth is that both sides are starting out with everything they want, even if they know they won't get it all. I feel that the UK will ultimately get a lot of compromise from the EU, as there are simply too many fragile economies in the bloc (Spain, Italy, Greece, etc.) to risk destabilising the region just to set an example of the perils of leaving the EU.

The other annoying factor is that all the pro-Remain media and politicians are still campaigning for a Brexit that is as least like a Brexit as possible. They want us to leave the EU but keep single market access and everything that comes with it. It would be completely pointless and wouldn't solve any of the problems that lead to people voting Leave in the first place. Nonetheless there's a never-ending stream of articles, comments and opinions slating Theresa May for not trying to pussy out of the whole thing.

The thing about democracy is that an inherent part of the system involves discrediting the current government. Arguably, that is the system. You have to slag off your opponent at every opportunity to try and weaken them and convince the public you should have power. It's a grinding, never-ending and thoroughly hypocritical war of attrition. Normally this is just a background hum that is safely ignorable, but the amount of headline political events in 2016 brought this kind of partisan shit-flinging to the forefront of public life, and it's grown remarkably tedious.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J On aggregate it will almost certainly be bad for the economy, dependent on what kind of deal we can thrash out. What's annoying me is that the government are setting out their best case scenario and the EU are giving their harshest warnings, and all we're getting is a blizzard of articles and commentary chattering about this incompatibility. The obvious truth is that both sides are starting out with everything they want, even if they know they won't get it all. I feel that the UK will ultimately get a lot of compromise from the EU, as there are simply too many fragile economies in the bloc (Spain, Italy, Greece, etc.) to risk destabilising the region just to set an example of the perils of leaving the EU.

This is a strand of logic that I have a very hard time following, although I see it very often from my university-educated middle-class friends, all of whom were against Brexit. You all admit that Brexit will be economically damaging to the UK, yet then you argue it won't be too bad because the EU is too afraid of economic damage to go all-out on what would turn into a Pyrrhic victory. It's the same optimism in rationality regarding economic outcomes, and, thus, economic determinism, which led everyone to tell me that Brexit would never happen.

I'm not just not sure if it's correct, I'm not even sure if I want it to be correct. The EU is about so much more than simple economics. I certainly don't want the UK (and, specifically, London) to lose out economically, but I would prefer that to more countries leaving the EU.

Ultimately, however, I think it's impossible to play game-theory with the current inputs. We need to see how the 2017 elections in key EU states go, to see how their leaders end up valuing outcomes. It's really difficult to forecast until we see how that happens.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J The other annoying factor is that all the pro-Remain media and politicians are still campaigning for a Brexit that is as least like a Brexit as possible. They want us to leave the EU but keep single market access and everything that comes with it. It would be completely pointless and wouldn't solve any of the problems that lead to people voting Leave in the first place. Nonetheless there's a never-ending stream of articles, comments and opinions slating Theresa May for not trying to pussy out of the whole thing.

On one hand I think it could be argued that the Leave vote was never clear about WHAT Brexit was going to be, so that it would have been quite possible to Brexit and have a, say, Norway-esque deal. On the other hand, some people still seem to be running the spring Remain campaign... As I've said to many of my aforementioned university-education, middle-class British friends, one of the things that I love the most about British culture, one of the things I find most attractive, is the stiff upper lip - and it seems to be completely lacking in those who voted Remain. Their entire campaign WAS 'Project Fear' and they haven't given it up. To finish this paragraph with a Trumpian flourish - Embarassing!

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J The thing about democracy is that an inherent part of the system involves discrediting the current government. Arguably, that is the system. You have to slag off your opponent at every opportunity to try and weaken them and convince the public you should have power. It's a grinding, never-ending and thoroughly hypocritical war of attrition. Normally this is just a background hum that is safely ignorable, but the amount of headline political events in 2016 brought this kind of partisan shit-flinging to the forefront of public life, and it's grown remarkably tedious.

The joys of democracy!

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Originally posted by Lews It's the same optimism in rationality regarding economic outcomes, and, thus, economic determinism, which led everyone to tell me that Brexit would never happen.

I'd say the key difference is that Brexit was realised by the ordinary voting population, who for the most part are economically and politically illiterate. The actual terms of exit will be negotiated by the technocratic elite.

I know it will be harmful. But I don't think it will be quite as ruinous as some people seem to think. I suspect the City will keep special financial passport privileges, in particular.

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On one hand I think it could be argued that the Leave vote was never clear about WHAT Brexit was going to be, so that it would have been quite possible to Brexit and have a, say, Norway-esque deal.

As per the above, I really don't think the majority of voters were aware of such nuances, or even particularly cared. I think there are a small number of core reasons that led to the vote, and they are empirically obvious if you go around the country speaking to the people who voted Leave.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I'd say the key difference is that Brexit was realised by the ordinary voting population, who for the most part are economically and politically illiterate. The actual terms of exit will be negotiated by the technocratic elite.

Yes, but they are beholden to the ordinary, illiterate population, and will take their views into account.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I know it will be harmful. But I don't think it will be quite as ruinous as some people seem to think. I suspect the City will keep special financial passport privileges, in particular.

I do think the City will be okay, but I worry more about cross-border-supply-chain-dependent manufacturing. I have a number of friends who work in the City, and they're all the most sanguine of anyone I know. To quote a good friend who works for Ye Olde Vampire Squide(TM), 'Nothing will change. My job is fine. [Laughs out loud.]'

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J As per the above, I really don't think the majority of voters were aware of such nuances, or even particularly cared. I think there are a small number of core reasons that led to the vote, and they are empirically obvious if you go around the country speaking to the people who voted Leave.

I do agree, but I would maintain that May could have maneuvered the vote into many different paths, and she chose the most negative one.

DJ RANN is not trolling, he's just a bitter petty person who can't accept defeat.

EDIT: Actually, I don't want to go into it. Thoroughly fatigued with Brexit talk.

Fair enough.

so much great source material for memes: http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/...tion-gigapixel/

i think it deserves it's own thread

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J As per the above, I really don't think the majority of voters were aware of such nuances, or even particularly cared. I think there are a small number of core reasons that led to the vote, and they are empirically obvious if you go around the country speaking to the people who voted Leave.

This is really interesting though, we should be talking about this more because it's the same thing for the people who voted for trump. The reasons might be obvious but are they justified?

The people have a right to be wrong. If you don't believe that, you might as well pack up the whole sorry game of democracy for good.

Guys, DJ RANN and Soulstar are not horrific trolls, they just use "alternative facts"

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Originally posted by djshire Guys, DJ RANN and Soulstar are not horrific trolls, they just use "alternative facts"

your trolling level is weak. like a 2 out of 10

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J If you don't believe that, you might as well pack up the whole sorry game of democracy for good.

Okay, sounds good

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Originally posted by DJ RANN This one is for you soulstar. Guess which inauguration is Obama and which one is Trump:

To be fair, 5 out of every 4 voters in DC lean Democrat, so it's to be expected that less Republicans will show up

Maybe white people don't show up as good in aerial photos. /racist

Btw, where's Waldo?

Seriously how petty and thin skinned can you be to call a press conference to quibble over the inaugural head count and the media coverage of it.

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Originally posted by Jon_Snow Seriously how petty and thin skinned can you be to call a press conference to quibble over the inaugural head count and the media coverage of it.

The more you think about it, the more you realise it's genius.

If you read this year's Edelman Trust Barometer, you'll see most Americans distrust the media (slide #12). So, the more the media criticises the president, and the more the Trump "anti-government" government says journalists are peddling "alternative facts", the stronger Trump looks.

It would be unwise to "let it go" - it strengthens Trump and weakens the media. Why would he miss the opportunity to score some points?

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J The people have a right to be wrong. If you don't believe that, you might as well pack up the whole sorry game of democracy for good.

It's fucking weird, especially with something like the electoral college. It's almost like government functions according to an odd, weird aggragate of the education/intelligence, or lack of, of its people. Such a vulnerable proccess depending on how much information the electorate has access to.

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Originally posted by Lira To be fair, 5 out of every 4 voters in DC lean Democrat, so it's to be expected that less Republicans will show up

Very true, but then Trump shouldn't promise the "biggest crowds in history" then send his press secretary out right after to say "the crowds only look smaller because it's the first year they used a white covering on the ground which makes it look like there's less people".

Seriously, I'm loving this administration. It's such a fucking train-wreck of comedy gold.

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Originally posted by DJ RANN Very true, but then Trump shouldn't promise the "biggest crowds in history" then send his press secretary out right after to say "the crowds only look smaller because it's the first year they used a white covering on the ground which makes it look like there's less people".

Actually, this was just genius (refer to my post above).

I've stopped laughing at Trump's tactics quite a while ago because doubling down when facts make him look mental is possibly his greatest move. I used to look down on him as a hopeless protest politician and laugh it off, but I now realise he's freaking Waldo:



I ain't laughing no more

At least Trump experienced a massive optical illusion.

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Originally posted by Lira The more you think about it, the more you realise it's genius.

I forgot whether I'm supposed to take him literally or seriously.

No one would have cared about the size if he didn't brag. He under delivered then attacked the media for reporting that his account conflicting with reality.

An inauguration is supposed to bring the country together not be a campaign rally. I wouldn't characterize it as genius trying to confirm what your supporters already believe.

Most anything Trump related is rather pointless like having an argument with someone who views facts as inconsequential. Conversation has devolved into a discussion which Survivor contestant has more "game".

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Originally posted by Lira The more you think about it, the more you realise it's genius. If you read this year's Edelman Trust Barometer, you'll see most Americans distrust the media (slide #12). So, the more the media criticises the president, and the more the Trump "anti-government" government says journalists are peddling "alternative facts", the stronger Trump looks. It would be unwise to "let it go" - it strengthens Trump and weakens the media. Why would he miss the opportunity to score some points?

I'm not sure he thinks that far ahead and is that smart. Maybe the people around him are, but I'm not so sure he is. The guy goes after anyone & everyone whom says anything negative about him and does it on an open forum. I wish he'd get the fuck off Twitter..

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Originally posted by soulstar606 your trolling level is weak. like a 2 out of 10

So your normal level?

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