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quote:

Originally posted by OrangestO Happy for Jimenez to score his first goal for Mexico at 35. He's had quite an up and down career in the EPL because of an awful head inury he suffered years ago. Was so good for the Wolves in his early career. Has done decent enough for Fulham after a long recovery process.

Just "Wolves". They're not called the Wolves.

Just watched the highlights. South Africa are exactly the kind of dross who would have no business being at a World Cup if it was still 32 teams. Other thoughts: the Mexico red card was complete bullshit, the Azteca is such a classic stadium, the official ball this year is absolutely beautiful.

It's happening: South Korea now have nearly a 1% chance of winning! #ThreadTheNeedle

That's, like, almost twice as much as they had a couple of hours ago

quote:

Originally posted by Lira It's happening: South Korea now have nearly a 1% chance of winning! #ThreadTheNeedle That's, like, almost twice as much as they had a couple of hours ago

GOOOOOALLL

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Just "Wolves". They're not called the Wolves. Just watched the highlights. South Africa are exactly the kind of .

What are you on about? Wolves, Wolverhampton, both are used commonly.

Why even try to correct something like that lol

"Wolves" is used commonly. "The Wolves" is not. It's like calling Tottenham "The Spurs". They're just Spurs. And Wolves are just Wolves.

Were they to take part, I'd root for my favorite, the Ukraine. Well, the Congo it is this year, then.

Is this what you do to get boners in your life, mate?

You can't be shagging much if you're on here correcting some bloke on the use of the word "the" while he's drunk watching the footy.

That said, well done to Canada for at least getting the point.

Seba, you're not on the level of post-irony the rest of us are on. This is Canadian hip hop level stuff, not fucking definite articles.

Paraguay are three goals down, the Americans have had a goal ruled out for offside, and there are still some 30 minutes to go. My model had originally given Paraguay a 50% chance of getting something from this game, never mind surviving with their dignity unscathed... someone please tell the US Paraguay have any oil, no need for this much violence when kids are watching

Edit: Oh, apparently they listened. Very thoughtful. Four Three more American goals in quick succession and I'd have been triggered.

(I'm double posting this ...because I can)

It's Friday and Canada hosted it's first World Cup Game!



Will we make it out of the group stage?

quote:

Originally posted by OrangestO Is this what you do to get boners in your life, mate? You can't be shagging much if you're on here correcting some bloke on the use of the word "the" while he's drunk watching the footy.

You see, this is your problem right here. You're trying to do the classic "Yank who lived in London for five minutes and now considers himself an honourary Brit" shtick but you keep fucking up the details. No Brit is saying "boner". It'd be "stiffy".

I recommend you take the minor correction in good grace, because I've saved you from embarrassing yourself when you meet some pissed up Wolves fans in person in some tourist trap Greek taverna and start going "Gee, did you guys you see that comeback from the Wolves? That final play was super clutch!"

quote:

Originally posted by Swamper (I'm double posting this ...because I can) It's Friday and Canada hosted it's first World Cup Game! Will we make it out of the group stage?

The team did score One (1) Goal, and earned One (1) Point, which seems to be enough to get a bunch of 'Historic Game' headlines out of it.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J You see, this is your problem right here. You're trying to do the classic "Yank who lived in London for five minutes and now considers himself an honourary Brit" shtick but you keep fucking up the details. No Brit is saying "boner". It'd be "stiffy". I recommend you take the minor correction in good grace, because I've saved you from embarrassing yourself when you meet some pissed up Wolves fans in person in some tourist trap Greek taverna and start going "Gee, did you guys you see that comeback from the Wolves? That final play was super clutch!"

Loool. Footy bloke shagging. TA's very own Hilaria Baldwin, OrangestO.

Even now that it's a desert this place still delivers once in a while.

quote:

Originally posted by Sykonee The team did score One (1) Goal, and earned One (1) Point, which seems to be enough to get a bunch of 'Historic Game' headlines out of it.

I like that this was the most Canadian opening ever. Canada scored a goal, conceded another, earned a point, and also gave another point away politely to both Bosnia and Herzegovina, whoever they are

quote:

Originally posted by Swamper Will we make it out of the group stage?

As long as Canada beats Qatar, a near certainty, preferably by more goals than Switzerland will score in a few minutes then, yeah, even a third place scenario is more probable than just plausible. I have to update my model but, long before the World Cup started, Canada already had a 83% chance of advancing to the knockout stage and 42% of making it to the Round of 16... roughly the same odds as Morocco, which has actually had a good run in the last few years, reaching the semifinals in the last world cup. So, yeah, Canada should do well. In the words of a famous Canadian philosopher, give your balls a tug

And, Qatar is one goal down already.

Edit: Unsurprisingly, what was supposed to be an onslaught has remained predictably neutral. Typical Switzerland. You know what? Canada actually has a shot at topping this group. A Hail Mary, Nunavut-bound shot, perhaps, but a shot nonetheless.

quote:

Originally posted by Vector A Loool. Footy bloke shagging. TA's very own Hilaria Baldwin, OrangestO. Even now that it's a desert this place still delivers once in a while.

Pleased someone found the humo(u)r in it. Cheers.

quote:

Originally posted by Lira As long as Canada beats Qatar, a near certainty

Is it a near certainty? Canada didn't beat B&H, who have a lower FIFA ranking than Qatar. Switzerland are a fairly handy side and they haven't exactly battered them (EDIT: immediately after I posted it's 1-1). Is this just Lira humour?

We... equalised!? Don't play with my heart, Vini, don't give me this much hope just yet

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Is it a near certainty? Canada didn't beat B&H, who have a lower FIFA ranking than Qatar. Switzerland are a fairly handy side and they haven't exactly battered them (EDIT: immediately after I posted it's 1-1). Is this just Lira humour?

Probability wise, nearly as high as Switzerland's was, plus a home base advantage (I don't have my computer with me right now). I don't take these numbers that seriously because I know how percentages work and a low scoring sport like football is likely to have upsets every now and then, but... sometimes the maths checks out

Well... we haven't lost yet. That�s good enough a result for me

It's weird how nervous the Brazilian side looked right after kickoff, and it took a Moroccan goal for us to step up our game. Could've been much worse for us, given that we actually lost our last friendly against Morocco, and the Taha team clinched their ticket to the World Cup before any other African squad. If we didn't crumble against Morocco, this means we might have a fighting chance of reaching the quarterfinals, as usual. On an unrelated note, I kinda wish Morocco had a third kit collab with Karl Hyde or something. I'd pay crazy money for a Deep Blue Underworld inspired jersey

Anyway, this is a reminder that we're in the timeline in which South Korea (plus Mexico), the United States (together with Australia), and Scotland are currently all top of their respective groups in number of points.

Congrats, Stu!

quote:

Originally posted by Lira Probability wise, nearly as high as Switzerland's was, plus a home base advantage (I don't have my computer with me right now). I don't take these numbers that seriously because I know how percentages work and a low scoring sport like football is likely to have upsets every now and then, but... sometimes the maths checks out

Right. Are you going to do this for the whole tournament? You've announced some "model" you've created without explaining in any way how it works and you're just going to give us constant updates without ever explaining the rationale.

I don't see any reason why it would be a near-certainty that Canada will beat Qatar. Qatar aren't complete mugs - they won the Asian Cup in 2023, which is a more significant achievement than anything this Canada squad has done recently. I know it's virtually impossible to get eliminated from this World Cup at the group stage, but the Canadians look very vulnerable to me after failing to win an extremely soft opening game.

quote:

Originally posted by Lira Congrats, Stu!

Thank you, brother.

Honestly though, when this rolls around every 4 years, Oz is just pretty glad to have qualified, lol.

That said... suck it, T�rkiye.

Our boys from Cura�ao taking their cue from Brazil I'm sure that'll be two butcherings on one day if the Japanese have us well done on the teppanyaki

*double triggered*

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Right. Are you going to do this for the whole tournament? You've announced some "model" you've created without explaining in any way how it works and you're just going to give us constant updates without ever explaining the rationale.

Well, it's more accurate to say I keep fighting my own model, really - it had given the Netherlands a 40% shot at victory, but up until recently supporting whatever team played Japan was the safer choice, as they've yet to reach the quarterfinals.

As for the model, it's really simple: I ran 10 thousand elo-based Monte Carlo despair routines, as I've not had the time to adjust for goals (for and against), and it's... acceptable. I might improve it someday. For this match, there was a 20% chance they'd tie, so it wasn't wildly improbable it was neither the result I hoped for (nor the one I dreaded most). Here are the numbers it churned:

Group	Team	Elo	Avg Group Pts	Make R32	Make R16	Make QF	Make SF	Make Final	Win Cup
H	Spain	2157	6.74	96.9%	70.8%	52.6%	40.1%	28.5%	18.8%
J	Argentina	2115	6.13	93.0%	62.9%	47.3%	33.7%	22.8%	14.6%
I	France	2063	5.64	90.2%	65.5%	44.1%	29.3%	16.7%	9.7%
L	England	2024	5.81	91.3%	60.0%	36.7%	22.1%	12.5%	6.8%
C	Brazil	1991	5.65	89.9%	56.9%	34.6%	20.1%	10.4%	5.1%
K	Portugal	1989	5.27	85.7%	54.1%	31.8%	17.8%	9.8%	5.0%
K	Colombia	1982	5.22	85.4%	53.2%	30.9%	17.3%	9.3%	4.5%
F	Netherlands	1948	5.25	85.7%	48.9%	29.8%	15.9%	7.5%	3.5%
E	Ecuador	1938	5.48	89.5%	52.8%	28.2%	15.1%	6.8%	3.0%
E	Germany	1932	5.45	89.1%	52.1%	26.5%	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%
D	Turkey	1911	4.85	80.0%	50.8%	26.9%	11.8%	5.6%	2.5%
I	Norway	1914	4.50	76.8%	44.7%	24.4%	12.6%	5.6%	2.3%
L	Croatia	1912	4.97	83.6%	45.4%	22.7%	11.6%	5.2%	2.2%
B	Switzerland	1891	5.76	90.9%	55.9%	27.9%	11.9%	5.2%	2.1%
F	Japan	1906	4.91	81.9%	43.4%	24.7%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%
A	Mexico	1875	6.23	97.3%	59.8%	28.4%	12.4%	5.2%	2.0%
G	Belgium	1894	5.31	86.1%	51.8%	26.0%	10.6%	4.9%	2.0%
H	Uruguay	1892	4.80	82.7%	38.8%	21.5%	10.7%	4.9%	2.0%

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I don't see any reason why it would be a near-certainty that Canada will beat Qatar. Qatar aren't complete mugs - they won the Asian Cup in 2023, which is a more significant achievement than anything this Canada squad has done recently. I know it's virtually impossible to get eliminated from this World Cup at the group stage, but the Canadians look very vulnerable to me after failing to win an extremely soft opening game.

At least according to my model, they're next to last, only beating Cura�ao at hopelessness. Even bookmakers give Canada a higher than 75% shot at winning, a more conservative bunch than I am, so I do stand by what I said.

That's bonkers. Worse than Haiti or Cape Verde? It's totally possible Canada will beat them, I just think saying it's a near certainty is "DJ RANN on election night 2016" levels of over-confidence.

Maybe I'll stick a bet on Qatar against Canada, looking at those odds.

It�s fun to cheer for Canada but let�s not get delusional here. We are not a good team. Our guys play hard and compete but the quality is not there. I�m sure Bosnia are upset they let that one slip away

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J That's bonkers. Worse than Haiti or Cape Verde? It's totally possible Canada will beat them, I just think saying it's a near certainty is "DJ RANN on election night 2016" levels of over-confidence.

Here's what I'll do. I'll tweak the model for "goals scored" versus "goals allowed", like 538 used to do back in the day. Let's see what changes.

As of now, my to-be-deprecated model says the game between Spain and Cape Verde will be the most lopsided one in the group stage, followed by the one between Germany and Cura�ao, which had triggered me. Let�s see how that unfolds.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Maybe I'll stick a bet on Qatar against Canada, looking at those odds.

Do it. Thanks to exchange rates and those odds, if you bet one pound and end up winning, you might actually be able to buy Cape Verde or something

quote:

Originally posted by planetaryplayer It�s fun to cheer for Canada but let�s not get delusional here. We are not a good team.

You�ve got an average team at home. Neither Mexico�s potential 'dark horse' status, nor the US 'cruising to the quarterfinals' odds. But, realistically speaking, Canada is as likely to top their group as the Netherlands. So... doable. Feasible. Dreamable

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