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-- The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates
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occrider (and others, of course)...
if offered a chance to fix the interest received by your bank at a rate close to 7% within a period of 5 years, would you take it?
In other words, what do you foresee in the future for interest rate movements?
(for those unfamiliar with the terms, the Fed Rate is currently at 1% meaning that Prime Rate is at 4% ...a consideration though is that Prime is meant for the banks' best customers. Everyone else receives anything higher.)
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| Originally posted by DJ Fin I thought I wanted to get a job such as that as a junior economist as well. I have "applied" to many different departments on USAJobs.com and can copy and paste a description of one of them in here if anyone would like. If you're in DC maybe your experience is a different one than mine. I tried to email the USAJobs.com people about my problem. I want to entertain offers from many different departments and bureaus since the jobs are similar. The way they have it set up though is that in order to fully "apply" you have to electronically fill out a 200 or so part questionaire. I don't mind doing the work, but the questions are basically the same for every job. They let you save and copy your resume and other info for each job, but not the questionaire for some reason. I have not been told by them a potential solution to this other than filling out the questionairre in full for every single job I would like consider. If you know of any way to circumvent this situation, please let me know. At this point, I may be more geared towards staying in Chicago and working here, anyway. Seems to me that the companies here (mostly banks) are showing more interest. Frankly, it also made me question how happy I would be if the departments themselves had as much inefficiency as the site with no consideration to improve the efficiency. As you know, being an economist, it's all about improving the efficiencies whenever possible. Regardless, I will become a PhD economist in my life no matter where I begin my employment. But, I at least thought I'd prefer starting it in DC for someone like the BLS (although they aren't hiring right now they have said). What do you think? |
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occrider (and others, of course)... if offered a chance to fix the interest received by your bank at a rate close to 7% within a period of 5 years, would you take it? In other words, what do you foresee in the future for interest rate movements? (for those unfamiliar with the terms, the Fed Rate is currently at 1% meaning that Prime Rate is at 4% ...a consideration though is that Prime is meant for the banks' best customers. Everyone else receives anything higher.) |
Week Ending May 2
RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Personal income grew 0.4% in March, and disposable income grew at the same rate. Spending rose 0.4%, below expectations, but spending was revised up in January and February. Wages grew 0.2%, their slowest growth of the year. The saving rate held steady at 1.9%.
RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 282.2
FIRST TAKE: New York City continues to improve. The NAPM-NY Business Conditions Index (BCI) accelerated in April and now stands at 282.2.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 94.2
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's final value for April was 94.2, up from the preliminary value of 93.2, but below March�s 95.8. Both components fell from their March values and rose from their preliminary values.
RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 63.9
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI came in comfortably ahead of expectations in April, rising to a three-month high. This report, coupled with bullish numbers from other regional manufacturing surveys earlier this month, will boost expectations for next week�s ISM index.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 135.2
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose slightly to 9.5% during the week ending April 23. This came amid an increase in the index�s level from 134.5 to 135.2.
RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: 2.5%
FIRST TAKE: Prices for agricultural commodities gained another 2.5% in April, hitting a record-high for the second consecutive month. Farmers received higher prices for milk, cattle, corn, and lettuce while lower prices were received for eggs, strawberries, hogs, and tobacco.
RELEASE: Employment Cost Index [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Employment costs accelerated by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2004, above expectations. Once again, benefit costs account for a significant portion of the hike, rising 2.4%, while wage cost acceleration is still very timid. Low wage costs are certainly a boon to corporate profits and testament to still-weak labor markets, but healthcare costs remain a serious concern.
RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 4.2%
FIRST TAKE: First quarter GDP growth is in line with our expectations, but undershoots elevated consensus. Headline growth was 4.2%. Most segments did well; weakness was concentrated in consumer durable goods (autos), business structures investment and state and local spending.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 338,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims declined by 18,000, to 338,000, last week. The decline was in line with expectations following the bump up attributed to the Easter holiday. The number for the previous week was revised up by 3,000, to 356,000. Continuing claims increased during the week ending April 17, to 3.013 million, from a revised 3.010 million.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 39
FIRST TAKE: The March help wanted index remained tepid, declining by one point to 39. A year ago, the reading measured at 39 as well. It bottomed out at 35 last May and has zigzagged since.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,155 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 78 billion cubic feet during the week ending April 23, slightly above expectations. Thus, today�s data will be marginally bearish for natural gas markets.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 748.0
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications increased a scant 0.5% last week to 748.0. This increase is the first in six weeks. Despite the continued rise in mortgage interest rates, purchase activity picked up solidly last week. The refi index continued to decline. The housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although the path downward may not be a straight one.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -13
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index jumped four points this week, more than reversing the previous week�s decline. Consumer comfort is now at a nine-week high.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.8 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks increased by 3.2 million barrels during the week ending April 23, according to the Energy Information Administration, but declined according to the API. The EIA reported a moderate build in motor gasoline stocks, while the API showed a substantial draw. Thus, the impacts of today�s data on petroleum markets will be mixed.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales slipped 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth jumped to 7.1%. Overall, the index remains little changed since mid-February.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.48 Million
FIRST TAKE: Existing home sales for March advanced at their fastest pace in more than two years. While sales were expected to rise, the acceleration is stronger than anticipated. The 5.7% increase brings sales up to 6.48 million, the second highest ever. Low and falling mortgage interest rates of the winter helped to boost home sales. Additionally, firming consumer fundamentals are also driving demand. Despite the surge, first quarter sales are still slower than the previous.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 92.9
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence increased to 92.9 in April. Both components of the index rose in the month with the present situation component leading the way. The March value was revised up a slight 0.2 points to 88.5.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 73.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence fell for the third straight month in April. The UBS index of investor optimism is now at a six-month low.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,228,000
FIRST TAKE: Sales of new homes picked up again in March, and even more than expected. The 8.9% increase brings sales to a record high of 1.228 million units. Census, however, revised downward February sales. Low mortgage rates, combined with a strengthening economy, gave households the boost they need to step up home purchases.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 39.0%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to push higher, setting another record high in late April. Sales are strong and pricing, while still soft, is improving. Nearly all businesses are increasing their investment in equipment and software and an increasing proportion are hiring. Confidence remains measurably stronger in North America and Asia compared to Europe and South America, although confidence has improved across the globe. Manufacturers, healthcare and high-tech companies are notably upbeat. Retailers, and those in the travel industry and in government are more positive than just a few months ago, but remain comparatively less optimistic.
Wow. HUGE employment numbers this morning. Economic data continues to improve--probably right up til November!
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| Originally posted by Shakka Wow. HUGE employment numbers this morning. Economic data continues to improve--probably right up til November! |
and let me add my company's economic indicators:
RELEASE: Hospitality Sales [Texas]: 3.1% Q1
FIRST TAKE: Texas Hotels have finally rebounded after 3 years of declining markets largely to the determent of Sept 11th. This is the second quarter for the past three years that shows positive growth. Many analyst predict this summer will have record setting growth rates.
RELEASE: Alcohol Sales in Bars and Restaurants [Texas]: 2.85% Q1
FIRST TAKE: Texas Bars and Restaurants, the number one industry employer in the state, seem to be heading for the explosive growth rates last seen in 2001 before the economic boon and Sept 11th.
source (or shameless plug): http://www.virtuehospitality.com/texas.y
Sorry Occ, just trying to share a bit of your glory 
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| Originally posted by Yoepus and let me add my company's economic indicators: RELEASE: Hospitality Sales [Texas]: 3.1% Q1 FIRST TAKE: Texas Hotels have finally rebounded after 3 years of declining markets largely to the determent of Sept 11th. This is the second quarter for the past three years that shows positive growth. Many analyst predict this summer will have record setting growth rates. RELEASE: Alcohol Sales in Bars and Restaurants [Texas]: 2.85% Q1 FIRST TAKE: Texas Bars and Restaurants, the number one industry employer in the state, seem to be heading for the explosive growth rates last seen in 2001 before the economic boon and Sept 11th. source (or shameless plug): http://www.virtuehospitality.com/texas.y Sorry Occ, just trying to share a bit of your glory |
April Budget Report
The federal government incurred a deficit of $297 billion in the first six months of fiscal year 2004, CBO estimates, $44 billion more than in the same period last year. Although revenues have risen by 2.5 percent compared with their level in the first half of last year, outlays have grown more quickly, increasing by about 6 percent.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $97 billion in February 2004, about $1 billion more than CBO's estimate based on the Daily Treasury Statements. Both receipts and outlays were about $4 billion lower than projected, primarily because refundable tax credits (which are recorded as outlays) were smaller than anticipated and tax refunds (which offset revenues) were correspondingly higher than expected.
The deficit in March was about $70 billion, CBO estimates, $11 billion more than the deficit incurred in the same month last year.
CBO estimates that the Treasury collected about $135 billion in revenues in March, about $15 billion (or 12 percent) more than it received in March 2003. Withheld receipts of individual income and payroll taxes were slightly more than $10 billion (or 8 percent) higher than in March 2003. The effect of two additional business days in March 2004 accounted for approximately $6 billion of that increase in revenues. Nonwithheld receipts were about $1 billion higher than in March 2003. Offsetting some of the rise in withheld and nonwithheld taxes were increases of almost $4 billion in refunds of individual income taxes. Net corporate receipts rose by more than $7 billion, mostly because refunds were down by a little less than $6 billion. Both the rise in corporate tax payments and the growth in withheld individual income taxes are consistent with a strengthening in the economy.
Outlays were $26 billion higher this March than they were last March, CBO estimates. A shift in payment dates and an accounting adjustment affected the growth in outlays. First, because March 1, 2003, fell on a weekend, about $10 billion in payments that would ordinarily have been made that March were instead made at the end of February. Second, changes in agencies' estimates of the subsidy cost of loans and loan guarantees made in previous years increased outlays by about $4 billion in March 2003 and by an estimated $1 billion in March 2004. Without those two factors, outlays in March would have grown by about 10 percent from 2003 to 2004. Adjusted for shifts in payment dates, defense spending was up by about $7 billion compared with the same month last year, and outlays for Medicare and Medicaid increased by a total of about $8 billion. Some of those increases were the result of two additional business days in March 2004.
The government recorded a deficit of $297 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2004, CBO estimates, about $44 billion more than for the same period last year. Receipts were about $20 billion higher and outlays about $64 billion higher than in the first six months of 2003.
In the first half of fiscal year 2004, receipts rose by about $20 billion, or 2.5 percent, compared with the same period in fiscal year 2003. That growth can be attributed to an increase of almost $23 billion in net corporate receipts, which were boosted by a $14 billion decline in refunds, and to a $3 billion rise in social insurance (payroll) taxes. Those increases were offset by a decline of about $7 billion in revenues from individual income taxes. Other sources of revenue were about $1 billion higher.
Withheld income and payroll tax receipts rose by about $8 billion, or about 1 percent, in the first six months of fiscal year 2004. Excluding the effects of the tax cuts enacted in May 2003 and of one extra business day, withheld receipts have grown by nearly 5 percent so far this year. Growth in withheld receipts was even higher in March, consistent with the strong employment report released last Friday. Nonwithheld receipts were about $1 billion lower this year than last year, while refunds of individual income taxes increased by about $12 billion.
Individual refunds (including refundable credits) have risen by 9 percent during this filing season, although the average refund is only about 5 percent above last year's level. By this point in the tax season, two-thirds of refunds have typically been processed. From the information now available, it does not appear that refunds will grow as much as CBO had expected.
Whether or not the behavior of refunds foreshadows higher-than-expected receipts for the fiscal year depends on the other major piece of the tax story for this year's filing season--final payments from individuals. The amount of those payments is still largely unknown because most of them are made around April 15 and processed over the following few weeks.
Outlays in the first six months of 2004 were 6 percent higher than in the same period last year, CBO estimates. Excluding the decline in outlays for net interest on the public debt, spending has increased by 6.6 percent.
CBO estimates that defense outlays through March were about 18 percent above the amount spent in the first six months of fiscal year 2003, which largely predated the war in Iraq. Military spending averaged about $36 billion a month in the second quarter of fiscal year 2004 (after adjusting for shifts in payment dates), about 4 percent higher than the amount spent in the first three months of 2004.
Medicaid outlays through March were 12.4 percent higher than in the first half of 2003, in part because a temporary increase in the federal matching rate took effect last April. Excluding the effects of that increase, Medicaid outlays in the first half of 2004 would have grown at an annual rate of 6 percent to 7 percent.
The growth in spending for other programs and activities was relatively flat in the first half of the year, inching up 1.5 percent from the amount spent in the first six months of 2003. Second-quarter outlays dipped $5 billion below the amount spent in the same quarter last year. Although that decline was partly due to the timing of revisions to estimates of the cost of certain credit subsidies, it also reflected lower payments for agricultural commodity programs and unemployment benefits. Reductions in those and other programs, together with higher earnings of the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust, offset most of the increases in spending for education, temporary fiscal assistance to states, the Public Health Service, and other activities.
May Budget Report
Monthly Budget Review
A Congressional Budget Office Analysis
May 6, 2004
Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for March and the Daily Treasury Statements for April
Through April, the federal government incurred a deficit of $284 billion for fiscal year 2004, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates, $82 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same period last year. Although the deficit will widen as the year goes on, recent trends suggest that the deficit in 2004 will be less than the $477 billion that CBO projected in March. Outlays to date are consistent with CBO's expectations, but revenues are running $30 billion to $40 billion higher than anticipated.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $73 billion in March, about $2 billion more than CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. That difference occurred largely because spending was higher than expected for the Departments of Veterans Affairs, Justice, Agriculture, and State. Both revenues and outlays were $5 billion higher than expected in March because the Treasury recorded additional outlays for the earned income tax credit and correspondingly lower tax refunds to correct a reporting error that occurred in February. That adjustment did not affect the deficit.
The budget surplus in April 2004--an estimated $15 billion--was well below the $51 billion surplus recorded in April 2003. Much of that difference resulted from shifts in the timing of payments, accounting adjustments made in 2003, and calendar effects. Because May 1, 2004, fell on a weekend, about $11.5 billion in payments that would ordinarily have been made this month were instead made at the end of April. In addition, outlays in April 2003 included a net reduction of $5.6 billion to reflect changes in agencies' estimates of the subsidy cost of loans or loan guarantees made by the Export-Import Bank, the Department of Education, and the Small Business Administration. Excluding those two factors, outlays in April would have grown by about $10 billion (or 5 percent) from 2003 to 2004, rather than by the $27 billion that CBO estimates.
Receipts in April were about $9 billion, or 4 percent, lower than last year, largely because refunds of individual income taxes were almost $12 billion, or 30 percent, higher than they were last April. The calendar accounts for most of that difference. The Treasury reports the majority of refunds on Fridays, and April 2004 had five Fridays, which added roughly $10 billion to the amount of refunds recorded in that month. Taxes paid with tax returns also contributed to the decline in revenues; they were about $4.5 billion, or 4 percent, lower this April. In contrast, revenues from withhheld income and payroll taxes were higher by about $2 billion, or 2 percent, and net receipts from corporate income taxes were about $5 billion, or 29 percent, higher than they were last April.
CBO estimates that the government recorded a deficit of $284 billion for the first seven months of fiscal year 2004--an increase of $82 billion over the same period last year. Receipts were about $16 billion higher than last year's figure, but outlays grew by about $99 billion.
Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, receipts were $16 billion, or 1.5 percent, higher than in the same period last year. Most of the increase in revenues so far this year is attributable to receipts from corporate income taxes, which have risen by $28 billion, or about 45 percent, as a result of strong growth in corporate profits. In addition, receipts from social insurance (payroll) taxes have risen by $9 billion, or 2 percent, in large part because of higher payroll tax withholding from wage and salary income.
So far this fiscal year, receipts from individual income taxes are about $21 billion, or 4 percent, below the figure for the corresponding period last year. Most of that decline occurred because refunds of income taxes rose by $18 billion, boosted both by the tax cuts enacted last year and, temporarily, by the extra Friday this April. (May of this year will have one fewer Friday.) In addition, nonwithheld receipts through April fell by $8 billion, mostly reflecting tax liabilities for 2003. Withheld income taxes rose by $6 billion.
The Internal Revenue Service has completed tabulating payments from individual tax returns filed by April 15, and most refunds due to taxpayers have been disbursed. After the remaining refunds are processed by the end of May, CBO expects that net receipts from tax return filings--payments minus refunds--will be about $30 billion more than CBO projected in March.
The causes of the unexpected strength in net receipts from tax return filings cannot be fully understood until information from tax returns becomes available later this year and next year. CBO believes that the loss of revenue resulting from the 2003 tax cuts was offset, in part, by a number of factors, which may include the following: income was greater than expected in 2003; the effective tax rates on that income were higher than anticipated; and more of the taxes on that income were paid in 2004 than was projected.
The unexpected strength in receipts so far this year indicates that total revenues for fiscal year 2004 will probably be higher than CBO forecast in March. In addition to stronger-than-projected net receipts from tax return filings, receipts from corporate income taxes and withheld income and payroll taxes have also been slightly higher than expected. As a result, total revenues to date are $30 billion to $40 billion higher than CBO anticipated.
Outlays in the first seven months of fiscal year 2004 were about 7 percent higher than spending during the same period last year (after adjusting for payment dates that were shifted because of weekends or holidays). That rate of increase is about the same as the growth in spending from 2002 to 2003 and is consistent with CBO's current baseline projections for fiscal year 2004.
The rates of growth for defense spending, Social Security, and Medicare were similar to those recorded in 2003. After adjustments for accounting changes, defense spending increased by about 16 percent in 2003 and continues to grow at that rate this year. For the entire fiscal year 2004, defense outlays are likely to be close to 50 percent higher than they were in 2001.
Spending for Medicaid has risen at an annual rate of more than 12 percent so far this year, compared with an increase of about 9 percent in 2003. The 2004 figure is bolstered by a temporary increase in the federal matching rate, which took effect last April and expires at the end of this June. The growth rate for the entire year is likely to be between 8 percent and 9 percent.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/18/new...dex.htm?cnn=yes
Excellent. I was half afraid bush wouldn't renominate him as a political ploy to keep interest rates low.
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| Originally posted by occrider http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/18/new...dex.htm?cnn=yes Excellent. I was half afraid bush wouldn't renominate him as a political ploy to keep interest rates low. |
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| Originally posted by Yoepus Yea!! Long live the King! Long Live Alan Greenspan! |
As long as the man keeps a tight grip on monetary policy, he could suck Bush's dick for all I care ...
Anyway, I suppose I've been shirking my duties long enough:
Week Ending May 31
RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Personal income grew 0.6% in April, and disposable income grew 0.5%. Spending rose 0.3%. Both were in line with our expectations, and spending was revised up in March. Wages grew 0.5% and growth was revised up slightly for March. The saving rate increased to 2.4%.
RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 287.1
FIRST TAKE: The NY NAPM business conditions index rose for the ninth straight month in May, cresting 287 on a seasonally adjusted basis and reflecting strengthening business conditions in the New York metro area.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 90.2
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for May was 90.2, and an unusually large 4 points below the preliminary value (which matched April�s value). The expectations index suffered the biggest decline.
RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 68.0
FIRST TAKE: Bucking the recent trend among regional manufacturing surveys and confounding expectations, the Chicago PMI posted a huge gain this month. This report will surely boost what were until now rather deflated expectations for next week�s ISM index.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.8
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 7.4% during the week ending May 21. The index�s level was unchanged at 133.8.
RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: 5.6%
FIRST TAKE: Prices for agricultural commodities gained another 5.6% in May, establishing a new record for the third consecutive month. Producers received higher commodity prices for milk, hogs, cattle, and broilers. Lower prices were received for lettuce, eggs, corn, and tomatoes.
RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 4.4%
FIRST TAKE: First quarter GDP growth was revised up from 4.2% to 4.4%, on stronger than previously reported inventory investment, state and local spending and exports. Profits from current production rose $14.4 billion in the quarter.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 344,000
FIRST TAKE: The number of people filing for initial jobless claims last week exceeded consensus expectations; 344,000 displaced workers filed, while the previous week's number was revised upward by 2,000, to 347,000. Continuing claims remained below three million for the fourth consecutive week during the week ending May 15. The current level of claims corresponds to healthy labor market gains.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 38
FIRST TAKE: Despite evidence that the labor market is again creating jobs, the newspaper help wanted index declined by one point in April, to 38. The index had bottomed out at 35 last May. The index did improve in April in three of the nation's nine regions, however.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 632.4
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 3% last week to 632.4. Both the purchase and refi components of the index fell. Mortgage rates are rising and while some are opting for lower cost adjustable products, this increase in rates is softening the demand for mortgages. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise further, slowing the housing market in the coming quarters.
RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: -2.9%
FIRST TAKE: April durable goods orders fell a sharper than expected 2.9%, but this follows two boom months. Declines were broad based.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -16
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell five points this week, the biggest decline in 14 weeks. Rising gasoline prices appear to be the culprit, with the buying climate component plunging eight points.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,093,000
FIRST TAKE: The impact of rising mortgage rates is showing up in sales of new homes. New home sales fell a sharp 12% to 1.093 million units in April. This decline is the sharpest since 1994. Census did revise upward March sales data, but only slightly.
RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States]: 1,458
FIRST TAKE: Employers initiated 1,458 mass layoff events involving 157,314 workers last month. The manufacturing industry continues to account for the largest portion of mass layoffs, while the West region reported the highest number of initial claims for the third consecutive month.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: Petroleum inventory data for the week ending May 21 are mixed. The American Petroleum Institute reported a small build in commercial crude oil stocks and a moderate build in motor gasoline stocks, whereas the Energy Information Administration reported flat crude oil stocks and a draw in motor gasoline stocks. Thus, today�s data will have a neutral effect on petroleum markets overall.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 0.5% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Warm weather in the East reportedly lifted sales, while cooler weather in the West was a drag. Year-over-year growth declined to 5.5%, the weakest growth since late January.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.64 Million
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, low mortgage interest rates of the winter and early spring helped boost existing home sales in April to a near record pace. Sales advanced by 2.5% to 6.64 million annualized units. Mortgage rates had not begun their ascent when many of the April homebuyers made decisions to purchase these homes. Concurrently, firming consumer fundamentals were also driving demand.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 93.2
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence was virtually unchanged in May, increasing 0.2 points to 93.2. Expectations rose while the present situation index fell, although both changes were tiny. As expected, rising energy prices, interest rate and inflation, the unsteady stock market and renewed terrorism concerns are offsetting improvements in labor markets.
RELEASE: Bankruptcy Filings [United States]: -1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Personal bankruptcy filings rose in the first quarter, but less than the normal seasonal amount, leading to the second consecutive decline in year-over-year bankruptcy filings and the biggest since the end of 2000. Business bankruptcy filings reversed course and grew. However, the growth in business filings was concentrated in chapter 11 filings in limited geographies and appears erroneous.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 71.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence fell for the fourth straight month in May. The UBS index of investor optimism is now at a seven-month low.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 37.9%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains close to the record high that has prevailed for the past two months. Confidence is strongest in North America and Asia and is improving in South America. European confidence continues to languish. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Hiring continues to strengthen, and labor costs and availability are a rising concern, although still much less so than sales, pricing, or the regulatory and legal environment.
Week Ending May 23
RELEASE: Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales) [United States]: 15.5 billion
FIRST TAKE: As expected, unseasonally adjusted e-commerce sales fell sharply in the first quarter relative to the holiday-boosted sales of the fourth quarter. In a surprise, however, year-over-year growth accelerated to 28%, the best growth in five quarters.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.8
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 8.3% during the week ending May 14. This came amid a decrease in the index�s level from 135.6 to 133.8.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 345,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, to a pace of 345,000. However, the import of the increase is mitigated by the decline in the four-week moving average, a more reliable indicator of trend. The moving average is now at its lowest level since the end of the recession. Continuing claims are moving down as well, falling to 2.943 million in the week ending May 8.
RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,396.0
FIRST TAKE: The most recent employment dynamics data indicate that during the third quarter of 2003, the scale tipped between job losses and gains, with gains exceeding losses for the first time since the recovery began. Job gains from opening and
expanding establishments totaled 7.4 million, while the number of job losses from closing and contracting establishments fell sharply to 7.3 million.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: The leading indicators index rose 0.1% in April, in line with expectations. A large increase in the interest rate spread was the primary reason for the increase.
RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.64
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed�s National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at 0.64 in April, a sharp increase from March�s revised estimate of 0.23. Not only did this mark the eighth consecutive month the index showed the U.S. economy exceeding its trend rate of growth, but it is also the highest reading since last November.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,388 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 85 billion cubic feet during the week ending May 14, just shy of expectations. Thus, today�s data will have a marginally bullish impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 23.8
FIRST TAKE: Despite appearing to slow in the past month, a healthy expansion of manufacturing activity in the Third District continues. May's Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is indicative of this, with a still elevated general diffusion reading of 23.8. However, this reading is much lower than the consensus estimate of 31.5.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 654.1
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 12% last week to 654.1. Both the purchase and refi components of the index fell. The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate declined last week, but remains well above 6%. With mortgage interest rates expected to rise further, the housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although last-minute homebuying will keep the path downward from being a straight one.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -11
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index rose two points, reversing the previous week�s decline. Fears that confidence would be weighed down by record gasoline prices appear to as yet be unfounded.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: Stocks of motor gasoline showed a moderate increase during the week ending May 14, while data for crude oil stocks were contradictory. While the Energy Information Administration reported a small draw in crude oil stocks the American Petroleum Institute reported a build. Thus, this week�s inventory data will provide little guidance for petroleum markets.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 0.8% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index as warm weather was blamed for a slowdown in store traffic. Year-over-year growth declined to 6.2%, the weakest in a month.
RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.97 million
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, residential construction slowed in April, with a 2.1% decline in housing starts to 1.969 million annualized units. The Department of Commerce, however revised upward estimates for March and February. Starts fell off in April for both single- and multifamily units. The slowing in starts follows a March surge. The impact of rising mortgage interest rates may also be contributing to the slower April sales, although permitting is up for the month.
RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 30.2
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in NY state slowed in May as the general business conditions index dropped below consensus expectations to 30.2. However, this is still a strong reading, indicating that expansion in the industry continues.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.4%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains at the record high that has prevailed since late March. Pricing, hiring and investment in new space all improved last week and are as strong as they have been since the survey began. North American and Asian businesses remain most upbeat. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are also very optimistic. Confidence is notably weaker in South America, but is improving. Confidence is soft and lagging in Europe. Government, retailers, and travel companies are also much less positive.
RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 69
FIRST TAKE: Still strong mortgage applications are keeping builders� expectations buoyant. The NAHB index remains sturdy for May at a reading of 69, which is flat from April. Strong buyer traffic is driving the composite index. Expectations and current conditions are easing.
Well I don't have all fo the days data yet, but it looks like the economy has added 248,000 new jobs in May.
If you've been following the jobs data, on the whole upward revisions have made the past 3 months rather stellar:
This is great news for the economy and Bush, but not so good news for the dems and Kerry. Dammit I predicted 6 months ago that the Dems should focus their campaign on national security and the Iraq issue because the economy was heading towards recovery. Now it's going to be tough shifting the focus away the successes and trying to sweep it under the table.
Well I'll post economics data later today but it looks like we have two great indicators on both output and on the hiring front. More bad news for dems...
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Industrial production jumps in May Output at factories, mines and utilities posts its biggest gain in almost six years, Fed reports. June 16, 2004: 9:31 AM EDT WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities surged in May, posting its biggest gain in almost six years, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. The Fed said industrial production rose a larger-than-expected 1.1 percent in May after a 0.8 percent gain in April. The May increase was the biggest since a 2.0 percent rise in August 1998. While the Fed said "unseasonably warm weather" caused output at utilities to surge, the gain in overall production was broad-based and reflected the continued revival in the U.S. factory sector, which began declining ahead of the 2001 recession. Companies also operated at a faster rate in May, at 77.8 percent of full capacity, up from April's revised 77.1 percent capacity use rate and the highest pace since May 2001. Wall Street had been expecting a smaller rise of about 0.8 percent, and capacity use to rise to 77.5. http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/16/new...dex.htm?cnn=yes |
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Hiring Plans Near Boom Levels-Survey Tue Jun 15, 2004 12:09 AM ET By Anupama Chandrasekaran NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. companies are gearing up to create jobs at rates not seen since the height of the 1990s boom, a survey released on Tuesday showed, adding to evidence that job growth will keep the U.S. economic recovery rolling. Following two months of strong government payroll reports, the survey is a boon to President Bush in the run-up to elections and will likely confirm expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates at the end of June as it moves to beat off emerging inflation. Thirty percent of polled U.S. employers plan to add to their payrolls in the July to September period, the survey by Manpower Inc. showed. That is up from 20 percent a year earlier and 28 percent in the April to June period. The survey hit its highest level of 35 percent in 2000, powered by the Internet-fueled boom. Far fewer companies now plan to lay off employees, the survey showed, making the net year-over-year increase in employers planning to create jobs the largest in the history of the Manpower survey, which was started in 1976. The survey, by the world No. 2 staffing company, polls 16,000 U.S. employers and is adjusted for seasonal spikes and dips. It is monitored by many economists for indications on corporate hiring sentiment. "It is at levels that were in place pre-recession," Manpower Chief Executive Jeffrey Joerres said in a telephone interview. "As more stability is occurring in demand, they (companies) look at their future saying, 'I am feeling good.' They have gotten off the fence to start hiring." The survey comes as job-growth begins to catch up with U.S. economic expansion, scotching talk of a 'jobless recovery' and bolstering Bush's claims that his policies create jobs, a key election battleground. U.S. employers added a larger-than-expected 248,000 jobs in May, according to the Labor Department, following 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March. The 947,000 jobs created in the March-May period make it the strongest three-month stretch in four years. The solid rate of job creation also makes it more likely that the Fed's policy-makers will ratchet up U.S. interest rates from current 1958 lows when they meet June 29-30. The quick change in employers' outlooks comes as demand surges for products and services. The percentage of companies that do not foresee changes in their workforce fell to 59 percent from 65 percent a year earlier and 62 percent in the second quarter. The percentage of employers intending to shrink their workforce fell to 6 percent from 9 percent in the year-earlier quarter, unchanged from the second quarter. "If you look at the overall atmosphere, we still have geopolitical issues, we have an election year," Joerres said. "But companies are looking at their own business and saying, 'even with the noise I have to do something to expand my business."' http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....04§ion=news � Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved. |
2 Weeks of Data:
Week Ending June 13
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 124.0
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed for the global economy in the next six to eight months, but with a slower rate of acceleration. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.3 points for the month of April after a 0.2 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the third consecutive month after an upward trend that began in April 2003. This pattern was widespread across the constituent economies. This is typical of economies that are moving past the initial stage of recovery and into more level growth.
RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 1.6%
FIRST TAKE: A large jump in petroleum prices pushed the import price index higher by 1.6% in May. Excluding petroleum products, import prices rose 0.4%, which was somewhat stronger than expected. Export prices rose a more modest 0.3% as the previous surge in agricultural prices slowed.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 352,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, to a total of 352,000. This is the highest total in seven weeks. The four-week moving average of 346,000 still remains below 350,000, which is consistent with job gains in excess of 200,000 monthly. Claims for the last week of May were revised up by 1,000, to 340,000. Continuing claims fell sharply at the end of May, to 2.88 million, a decline of 106,000.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,666 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 102 billion cubic feet during the week ending June 4, just slightly above expectations. Thus, today�s data will have a neutral impact on natural gas markets, which continue to be dominated by movements in the petroleum complex.
RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$62.5 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for May was $62 billion, slightly smaller than CBO�s preliminary estimate of $65 billion. Through the first eight months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $344 billion.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 568.8
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 9% last week to 568.8. Both the purchase and refi components of the index fell. Mortgage rates are rising and while some are opting for lower cost adjustable products, particularly on the purchase side, this increase in rates, is softening the demand for mortgages. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise further, slowing the housing market in the coming quarters.
RELEASE: Creditforecast.com Quarterly Household Credit Repo [United States]: 14.3%
FIRST TAKE: Households continued to borrow aggressively in the first quarter of 2004, although there has finally been a slowdown in mortgage borrowing and a slight pickup in bankcard borrowing as mortgage rates have risen. Credit quality is also improving slowly but steadily across loan products as the full positive impact of the improved economy is at last so far overriding the full negative impact of higher interest rates.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 0.2% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index, ending a string of three consecutive declines. Year-over-year growth improved to 5.5%. The shift in the Memorial Day holiday reportedly helped sales, and retailers noted some improvement in traffic.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.7%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to hover near the record high that has more or less prevailed since March. The most notable changes in recent weeks are more aggressive business hiring and measurably stronger South American confidence. Confidence is still strongest in Asia and North America and lagging substantially in Europe. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Entertainment, healthcare, government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Despite a palpable improvement in pricing, it remains businesses primary concern.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $3.9 billion
FIRST TAKE: Consumer credit growth cooled again in April, rising a little under expectations with a $3.9 billion gain. Revolving debt actually fell.
RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 22
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity continued to grow in the Fifth Federal Reserve District in May. Shipments and employment accelerated markedly, although several other measures of activity expanded at a slower pace than April. Expectations remained positive though they also moderated.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -19
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell a single point, its third straight decline. The index is now at an 11-week low.
RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale sales bested expectations once again in April, jumping 0.8%. In a surprise, however, inventories fell 0.1%, the first decline in eight months.
RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 10.1%
FIRST TAKE: The hiring rate declined in April to 3.3%, from 3.5% in March. The April rate still bests hiring activity prior to that. However, the layoff rate also declined in April, to 1.0%. Thus, the combination of layoffs and hiring is consistent with net employment gains reported last week.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 302.1 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a build during the week ending June 4, according to the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Motor gasoline stocks also showed a build. Thus, today�s data will have a bearish impact on petroleum markets.
Week Ending June 6
RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales advanced 4.1% in April. On a year-over-year basis, chip sales rose almost 37%, the strongest increase since late 2000. Recent strength in demand for semiconductors is showing no signs of abating.
RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: 1.3%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending soared 1.3% in April, blowing away consensus calls for a modest 0.4% rise in building activity, and setting the stage for a strong start to the second quarter. March�s already strong preliminary estimate was also revised up sharply.
RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 62.8
FIRST TAKE: The ISM index is still showing robust growth in the manufacturing sector with a reported figure of 62.8 for May. The reading for May marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been above 60.
RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 73,368
FIRST TAKE: The number of announced job cuts increased in May to 73,368 from 72,184 in April. Despite the increase, job cuts announcements are well below the 100,000+ levels that prevailed during the recession and through 2003. Retail trade and telecommunications accounted for the largest numbers of cuts.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.6%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to hover near the record high that has more or less prevailed since March. The most notable changes in recent weeks are more aggressive business hiring and measurably stronger South American confidence. Confidence is still strongest in North America and Asia and lagging substantially in Europe. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Despite a palpable improvement in pricing, it remains businesses primary concern.
RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 17.8 Million
FIRST TAKE: Vehicle sales were much stronger than expected in May, climbing to 17.8 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This follows several lackluster months. Sales of both cars and trucks rose handily.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 624.6
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 1.2% last week to 624.6, led by a decline in the refi index. The purchase index increased modestly. Mortgage rates declined slightly, but remain well above where they stood a few weeks ago, softening the overall demand for mortgages. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise further, slowing the housing market in the coming quarters.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 0.5% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index, the third consecutive decline. Year-over-year growth declined to 5.0%, the weakest growth since late January. High energy prices and related weak consumer confidence are being blamed for the slowing.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -18
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index slipped another two points this week. The index is now at a ten-week low.
RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 11%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com�s probability of recession held steady in May at 11%. This moderation comes after five months of rising risks. Moderate improvements in consumer confidence and the stock market helped stave off a further decline in risks. Unemployment insurance claims continue to decline as well. On the whole, risks remain weighted towards the upside.
RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 128
FIRST TAKE: After rising by 16 points in April, the Monster Employment Index rose by another three points in May, to a reading of 128. The largest increases in openings are in such fields as Management, Installation/Maintenance, Education/Training, Architecture/Engineering, and Production, while the largest number of available jobs are in sales, business & financial operations, management, and administrative support positions.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 5.7%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 5.7% in May according to the ICSC chain store index, above expectations. This provides further evidence that the April weakness was a pause following strong early Easter buying and that high gasoline prices are having only a limited impact on spending. Warehouse clubs led though luxury retailers continued to perform well.
RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: Revised productivity growth came in at 3.8% in the first quarter of 2004, higher than the previous 3.5% preliminary estimate. Manufacturing productivity was revised down, due to a drop in non-durable manufacturing productivity. Real hourly compensation and unit labor costs were revised up.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 339,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims declined, as expected during the last week of May, to a total of 339,000. The previous week's total was revised up by 1,000, to 345,000. Continuing claims rose to 3.003 million during the week ending May 22. Continuing claims rose above 3 million for the first time in five weeks. The increase is consistent with higher initial claims in recent weeks.
RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States]: -1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Factory orders fell by a larger than expected 1.7% in April. The decline in durable goods orders was revised to be an even larger 3.2%.
RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 65.2
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the pace of expansion softened a bit in the U.S. services sector as the ISM Non-Mfg Index fell from April's record high of 68.4 down to 65.2 in May. Nonetheless, this marks the index's fifth consecutive month above 60, which still indicates a very strong expansion in the nation's service-producing industries.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,564 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 87 billion cubic feet during the week ending May 28, slightly above expectations. Today�s data will have a modest impact on natural gas markets, which continue to be dominated by movements in the petroleum complex.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 301.7 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks showed a moderate increase during the week ending May 28 according to the Energy Information Administration. Stocks of motor gasoline also recorded a build. Thus, today�s data should have a moderately bearish impact on petroleum markets. The American Petroleum�s Institute�s report has been delayed. Markets will look for confirmation of the EIA�s data once the API data become available.
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| Originally posted by occrider Well I'll post economics data later today but it looks like we have two great indicators on both output and on the hiring front. More bad news for dems... I don't think that the dems will be able to stick with the platform of a 'jobless recovery' anymore. The economy is roaring back to life and I imagine greenspan is going to have to slap the brakes on it fairly soon. |
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| Originally posted by Yoepus Yea!! Long live the King! Long Live Alan Greenspan! |
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| Originally posted by DJ Fin just as additional conjecture... I'd like to disagree with the first assessment and agree with the second. 1st-I don't think the signs of positive indicators should be a problem for the dems. The (essentially) cyclical nature of our economy suggests that we were going to recover from what were significant losses. This is much the same way that the losses should have been predictable and were the result of hasty growth. 2nd-June 30th -- 1/4 point increase in the Fed Rate! |
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| Originally posted by DJ Fin What do you all think about his upcoming retirement? (Q1, 2006) Any ideas about who should assume the Chairmanship? What effects do you think it will have on the various markets, if any? |
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| Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Well cripes man, he's practically sleeping with Junior Bush over in the White House lately, how could we not see this comin'?: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004May26.html I mean, he's completely for Bush's permanent tax cuts, despite the consequences to the deficit, Medicare, and Social Security, I think Bush would be insane not to hire him back on. |
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| Originally posted by occrider Heh well naturally those well versed in economics such as you or I, realise that the recovery was, in part, due to the cyclical nature of the business cycle. But the average American doesn't comprehend the economics of the business cycle and bubbles. They approach the issue with a simple minded view that fiscal policy is the ultimate determinant of the direction the economy is taking. Therefore when people inaccurately blamed Bush for the recessionary retreat from the bubble economy in 2000, they will inaccurately praise Bush for the rapid recovery of a once timid yet inherentely healthy economy. Of course I personally argue that the tax cuts had a role as an accelerant, however, that is a different discussion altogether. Therefore good news in the economy is bad news for the dems as the public will erroneously attribute all economic progress to whatever administration is in power. |
(I also just wanted to make a 5 line sentence cuz they're so much fun)
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| Originally posted by occrider I don't even understand why there are term limits for the fed chairman post. I don't think the markets are going to be too happy heh ... |
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| Originally posted by DJ Fin commenting (and seemingly contradicting on the surface) on what you've posted would begin a dialogue that could span a dozen pages or so with both of us still believing what we did before, but perhaps with a more pleasant understanding of the differing viewpoint. I doubt anyone wants that, but I'd be willing to give it a go! (I also just wanted to make a 5 line sentence cuz they're so much fun)so instead of "jacking" the thread, I'll just smile and nod for the folks. |
what sort of project are you working on occrider? seems like a pretty ambitious undertaking... i just look to yield curves (click) and forward exchange rates (click) to find out where things are going.
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