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-- The State of the 2004 Euro Economy With Weekly Updates
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Week Ending December 12

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Taiwan]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: CPI inflation in Taiwan came in at 1.5% y/y in November, the first time since May 2004 that it has been below 2.0% on a year-on-year basis. Month on month, consumer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.05% in November, according to the statistical agency.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production has recorded a contraction in October of 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y, compounding the slide of previous months.

RELEASE: Manufacturing Turnover and Orders Received [Germany]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: German manufacturing orders rose for a second consecutive month in October. According to the Economy and Labour Ministry, the indicator increased by 1.1% from September and by 3.8% from the same period one year ago.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 27.4%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence improved in early December. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%. Attitudes have improved a bit in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence remains notably soft. Confidence is strongest among high-tech companies and manufacturers. Retailers are notably less upbeat. Confidence is off measurably since its early summer peak largely due to softer sales growth.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Taiwan]: Mil. US$567.9
FIRST TAKE: Taiwanese foreign trade remains healthy in November, notching a surplus of US$567.9 million, up from US$341.2 million in the previous month.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: -3.5%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial activity in Denmark slid 2.0% month on month (seasonally adjusted) in October, building on September�s decline and further deepening the sector�s weakness. On a year-ago basis, output in October was down 3.5%.

RELEASE: GDP [Norway]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Norwegian real GDP expanded by 0.7% q/q in the third quarter on the back of strong activity in services and manufacturing. Including oil, GDP for Norway fell 0.9% q/q in Q3, weighed down by a decrease in oil and gas extraction.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Norwegian industrial production grew 1.7% y/y in October, completely reversing the previous month's 0.9% y/y contraction in output. On a month-on-month basis, IP notched a strong 2.3% gain in October.

RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 14.4
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment increased marginally by 0.5 points in December and stood at 14.4 after the 13.9 level touched in November. The indicator is still far below its historical average of 34.5 points.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Canada]: 2.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold at 2.5% today. The central bank's statement noted that economic conditions in Canada have been broadly in line with expectations. Oil prices and global growth prospects have moderated. In addition, the appreciation in the Canadian dollar has weighed on growth. Thus, the Bank of Canada decided to keep rates on hold.

RELEASE: Employment [Switzerland]: 3.9%
FIRST TAKE: The unemployment rate for Switzerland in November has risen modestly to 3.9%, up from 3.7% in the previous month.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production growth shed speed rapidly in October, dipping to a gain of only 1.5% y/y from 5.5% the previous month. This marks the fifth consecutive month of slowdown.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Czech Republic]: 109.9
FIRST TAKE: The overall upward trend of Czech inflation came to a halt in November. The year-on-year increase in consumer prices decelerated to 2.9% from 3.5% in October. On a monthly basis, the price level dropped by 0.1%.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Netherlands]: -5.3%
FIRST TAKE: Dutch retail sales dropped by a seasonally adjusted 5.6% in October from the same month of 2003, failing to reverse course after the 0.8% y/y contraction recorded in the previous month.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in the Netherlands expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% y/y in October, partially reversing the previous month's 0.6% contraction.

RELEASE: GDP [Sweden]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Swedish real gross domestic product advanced 0.9% quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted), down from a 1.0% gain in Q2. In annual terms, real GDP advanced 3.7%, versus a 3.4% advance in the previous period. According to the data prepared by Statistics Sweden, fixed capital formation pipped net trade as the single largest contributor to aggregate growth.


RELEASE: GDP [Belgium]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Belgian real gross domestic product advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.7% quarter on quarter in the July-to-September period, on par with comparable gains notched over the preceding four quarters. As a result, the expansion in the first three quarters of the year has averaged 0.73% q/q, putting Belgium among the euro zone�s growth leaders.

RELEASE: GDP - Final [Hungary]: 3.7%
FIRST TAKE: Real GDP in Hungary expanded by 3.7% y/y in Q3, following the 4.0% y/y gain in the previous quarter. The main drivers were manufacturing (particularly agricultural goods production) and investments, whereas the pace of household consumption dropped 0.9 percentage points compared to Q2.

RELEASE: Machinery Orders [Japan]: -3.1%
FIRST TAKE: Japanese machinery orders came in weaker than expected for October, falling 3.1% m/m. The capital replacement cycle has well and truly finished in Japan.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Germany]: 12.3
FIRST TAKE: According to the provisional foreign trade statistics released this morning by the Federal Statistical Office, in October 2004 the value of German exported commodities increased to �64.4 billion from �61.8 billion in September and the value of German imported commodities increased to �51.9 billion from �49.7 billion in September (nonseasonally adjusted). Thus, the foreign trade balance showed a surplus of �12.5 billion in October 2004.

RELEASE: GDP [Finland]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Finnish real GDP expanded by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% q/q in the third quarter, building on the previous quarter's 0.7% gain. Exports grew by 5.6% q/q, completely reversing the 5.0% contraction of Q2.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: Despite maintaining its tightening bias, and in the face of a relatively lively growth rate, the Riksbank elected to hold the benchmark policy rate unchanged at a historically low 2.0% following their two-day monthly policy meeting. Their assessment of future inflation was unchanged from October, while the recovery is expected to continue, albeit at a slightly less vibrant pace.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [United Kingdom]: �-5.3
FIRST TAKE: Britain�s total trade (i.e. goods and services) deficit with the rest of the world reversed course in October, widening to �3.8 billion from an unrevised �2.9 billion in September. A widening merchandise trade shortfall, coming in at �5.3 billion in part thanks to higher raw materials prices, was largely to blame.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Germany�s manufacturing industry is struggling. Industrial production rose 0.6% m/m in October. On a yearly basis, industrial output increased 1.9%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Swedish industrial activity continued to expand in October, notching a rise of 1.0% m/m and 5.8% y/y.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.75%
FIRST TAKE: The lingering uncertainties surrounding domestic and global growth trends, low and relatively stable inflation, and a strengthening pound were all likely contributors to the Monetary Policy Committee�s decision to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, in line with expectations, for a fourth successive month. A single, quarter-point hike in the first quarter of next year should bring the current tightening cycle to an end.

RELEASE: GDP [Portugal]: -1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Real Portuguese GDP rose by 0.8% y/y in the third quarter of the year, slowing down from the revised 1.8% rise in the second quarter. The main triggers were real exports of goods and services and internal demand.

RELEASE: GDP [Poland]: 4.8%
FIRST TAKE: Polish real GDP expanded by 0.8% q/q in the third quarter, versus the previous quarter's 1.1% gain. On a year-on-year basis, the Polish economy expanded by 4.8% in Q3, slightly below market expectations for 5.0% growth.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: -1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Belgium's gross industrial production index (excluding construction) dropped by 1.2% on an annual basis, while construction plunged 9.8% y/y. Durables and investment goods were the main factors responsible for the bad industrial performance.

RELEASE: National Accounts [Greece]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: Greek third-quarter GDP growth has come in at 3.8% y/y, showing only a modest fall from the previous quarter, which registered an expansion of 3.9% y/y.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: In November, the Harmonized Consumer Price Index for Germany increased by 2.0% y/y and declined by 0.4% m/m, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: -0.7%
FIRST TAKE: The French industrial sector continues to seesaw. In October, output dipped 0.7% m/m (seasonally adjusted), following September's 3.2% rebound. Most sectors saw a decline in activity in the month, the automotive sector in particular. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, production was up a decent 1.6%.

RELEASE: Merchandise Trade [France]: -2.1
FIRST TAKE: France's merchandise trade balance widened unexpectedly in October, to �2.1 billion, from just under �800 million in September. This brings the year-to-October goods trade deficit to �5.3 billion versus a surplus of �667 million in the same period of 2003. Exports continue to perform reasonably well, but have been eclipsed by import growth, with October marking a notably large upsurge.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: French consumer prices, as calculated by EU-harmonized norms, were flat month on month in November (seasonally adjusted), putting the annual rate of inflation at 2.2%, down from 2.3% the previous month. Energy and tobacco prices unsurprisingly remain the largest upward influences on the index.

RELEASE: GDP [Czech Republic]: 3.6%
FIRST TAKE: In the third quarter of 2004, the Czech economy expanded by 3.6% on a year-ago basis.
The Q2 growth estimate of 4.1% was revised lower to 3.9%. As in Q2 2004, business investment was the most dynamic component.

RELEASE: GDP [Turkey]: 4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish GDP growth, in deflated, nonseasonally adjusted terms, expanded 4.5% year on year in Q3, disappointing expectations of a 7.6% gain. The more closely-watched gross national product figures revealed an expansion of 4.7%, also undershooting a consensus forecast of 7.9%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 12.6%
FIRST TAKE: In October, the Czech industrial production index (seasonally adjusted) increased by 2.6% m/m and by 8.1% y/y, according to the data released this morning by the Czech Statistical Office.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 10.1%
FIRST TAKE: Indian industrial production accelerated on an annual basis in October, but showed a slowdown on its m/m gauge. The headline index rose by 10.1% y/y, versus an upwardly revised 8.8% in September, and 1.0% m/m, against a 2.1% increase in the previous month. Electricity production was the weakest sector in October, while manufacturing and mining showed mixed results.

RELEASE: GDP [Italy]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: In line with the flash estimate, in Q3 2004, Italy's economy expanded 0.4% q/q. On a yearly basis, Italian GDP growth was 1.3%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Ireland]: -5.6%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in the three month period to October dipped 4.5% from the previous three month period, and decreased 5.8% y/y.

RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 103.3
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, global growth is expected to continue to decelerate over the next four to six months. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area decreased 0.1 points for the month of October, after falling 0.1 points in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the ninth consecutive month. The global economy has peaked for the cycle, and will display softer growth patterns until the spring of 2005, when a pickup is expected.

Week Ending December 19

RELEASE: Monetary Aggregates [China]: 14.0%
FIRST TAKE: The growth in M2 was 14% y/y. This was in line with consensus expectations.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Indonesia]: 10.2%
FIRST TAKE: Indonesia's industrial production has been revised again. The Indonesian authorities do not provide an explanation as to these changes. Economy.com has made numerous attempts to contact the officials responsible for the data, but on no occasion have we received a response or explanation. The series expanded 10.2% y/y in October after growth of 1.6% y/y in September.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: -0.2%
FIRST TAKE: The industrial production index slid 0.2% in October from September (seasonally adjusted), which puts year-ago growth at -0.5%, according to ISTAT, the Italian statistical agency. After the (downwardly revised) 0.4% rise in September, the October outcome confirmed the stagnation in Italian industrial activity.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 28.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has taken on a somewhat brighter hue in the past several weeks. Attitudes have improved in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence, which had tumbled this fall, also appears to be reviving. Confidence is strongest among high-tech companies and manufacturers. Retailers are notably less upbeat. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding just above its potential of 3% real GDP growth.

RELEASE: Retail Trade [New Zealand]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: New Zealand's retail sales grew 0.4% m/m in October, mirroring the 0.4% m/m rise in the previous month.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 8.2%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian industrial production increased by a working-day adjusted 8.4% y/y in October. Output rose by a seasonally and working-day adjusted 1.8% m/m. The data are well above the market expectation of a 5.6% y/y gain.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Singapore]: 12.5%
FIRST TAKE: Singapore�s retail sales surged 5.9% m/m October, accelerating from a 2.3% m/m increase in the previous month and outperforming the expected 1.7% m/m rise.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [India]: -$2.9 Bil.
FIRST TAKE: Government data revealed that India's November trade deficit expanded to $2.9 billion from $1.47 billion a year earlier. The deficit may widen further due to firming consumer demand and rising incomes.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Spain]: 3.5
FIRST TAKE: Spanish consumer price inflation, as calculated by harmonized EU-wide standards, came to 3.5% y/y in November, according to final results published today by INE. This exceeds a preliminary estimate of 3.4% released at the end of November. On a monthly basis, prices advanced 0.2%. Despite the monthly dip in oil prices, transport costs still had the largest upward impact on the index.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Thailand]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of Thailand has opted to lift rates by a further 25 basis points in an effort to maintain stability as the economy expands and in keeping with the U.S. Fed's 25 basis point hike overnight. The overnight call rate now stands at 2.00%.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.7% Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The British labour market held steady into November, as the claimant count unemployment rate remained near a three-decade low at 2.7% for a sixth consecutive month. Average earnings growth (ex-bonuses) - closely watched with regard to inflationary developments - accelerated to 4.4% in the three months to October. This is the metric's fastest gain since March 2002.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 689.0
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages softened during the week ending December 10, 2004, with the MBA index declining by 1.0% to 689. Both the refi and purchase components of the index fell, although the drop in the purchase index was negligible.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 6.50%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Poland has decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% today. The Monetary Council reiterated its restrictive bias toward future monetary policy.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: In line with expectations, the Norges Bank decided to leave the sight deposit rate, its benchmark rate of interest, unchanged at 1.75% today. The sight rate has been at the current historic low 1.75% since March 2004.

RELEASE: Retail Sales Index [Czech Republic]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: In October, Czech retail sales continued to follow the trend of the preceding months and increased slightly. According to the Czech Statistical Office, constant price retail sales advanced 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis. On a year-ago basis, retail sales advanced 1.7% (not seasonally adjusted).

RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.1%
FIRST TAKE: Retail sales in the U.K. surprised modestly on the upside in November, rising by a seasonally adjusted 6.1% y/y, versus a 5.6% (downwardly revised) gain the previous month and against market expectations of a further slowdown. Retail prices, as reported by the implied deflator, dipped 1.5% y/y - a tenth of a percentage point above October's drop.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: Euro zone's CPI rose by 2.2% in November compared to last year. Monthly harmonised inflation rate went down by 0.1%.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of Japan surprised no one by deciding to retain existing monetary policy settings.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Singapore]: 16.5%
FIRST TAKE: Growth in Singapore�s key non-oil domestic exports grew 16.5% y/y in November after an 11.9% y/y rise in October. The consensus expected a 16.4% increase.

RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 96.2
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index rose in December after dropping in both October and November. German businesses showed a more favourable judgment of the current situation and more optimistic expectations for the next six months.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Contrary to the modest rebound experienced in the previous month, but in line with expectations, euro-zone industrial production for October fell 0.5% m/m, however, a modest 1% y/y increase was also recorded.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Canadian CPI for November rose 2.4% (y/y), following an increase of 2.3% in October. The rise was attributed to higher auto prices in November. Core CPI rose 1.6%(y/y) in November. In the second half of the year, the increase has remained relatively stable, ranging between 1.4% and 1.6%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Poland]: -1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Not seasonally adjusted Polish industrial production for November fell by 1.1% m/m, but rose by a significant 11.3% y/y.

Week Ending February 6

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [India]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price growth in India continued to cool in December, shedding momentum for a third consecutive month. The CPI rose 3.8% y/y, as compared to 4.2% in November and marking the index's slowest pace of gain since July.

RELEASE: Domestic Trade [Taiwan]: 8.8%
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan�s total domestic trade remains strong. In November, domestic trade rose 8.8% ahead of the 8.0% increase in the previous month.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Finland]: 7.3%
FIRST TAKE: Finnish industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 7.3% m/m in December, completely reversing the 2.5% contraction registered in the previous month. This brought the annual gain to 12.3% in December.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [France]: -25
FIRST TAKE: The French consumer confidence index prepared monthly by statistics agency INSEE stabilized in January at -25. This runs contrary to expectations of an improvement and fails to reflect the more upbeat household outlook suggested by December�s strong consumption figures. Any future gains will remain limited by labour market weakness.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Spain]: 5.6%
FIRST TAKE: According to figures released by INE, the Spanish statistical agency, real retail sales continued to expand in December, albeit more slowly than in the previous month. Real sales rose 2.6% y/y after a 4.7% gain the previous month. For the full year 2004, retail sales rose 2.7% from 2003.

RELEASE: Private Consumption [Thailand]: -1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Thai private consumption contracted in December, coming in at -1.2% y/y following growth of 3.4% y/y in November.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Thailand]: 3.0%
FIRST TAKE: Thai industrial production retreated in December, with growth in output of just 3.0% y/y compared to a revised 10.0% in the year through November and a 16.1% y/y rise in December 2003.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Thailand]: $923.0 Mil.
FIRST TAKE: Thai trade came in somewhat better than anticipated in December. Exports grew quite strongly and the balance was in surplus to the tune of US$813 million.

RELEASE: Business and Consumer Survey [Euro Zone]: 100.6
FIRST TAKE: A rebound in morale in the services sector and among retailers provided a welcome fillip to euro-zone economic sentiment in January 2005. The index compiled by the European Commission rose to 100.6 points from a downwardly revised 100.2 in December (originally 100.3).

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence [United Kingdom]: 1.0
FIRST TAKE: British consumers brightened their outlook in January, according to the monthly survey carried out by Martin Hamblin Gfk. The confidence index jumped four points to +1, marking the fourth successive month of improvement after September�s deterioration. A gradual downturn in the housing market (versus fears of a collapse), stable borrowing costs, and a robust labour market are all likely contributors.


RELEASE: Industrial Production [Portugal]: -2.1%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Portugal decreased by 2.1% y/y in December, following a decline of 3.5% in November (revised from 3.8%). This is the sixth month in a row that industrial production has diminished in Portugal.

RELEASE: BoE Lending to Individuals [United Kingdom]: 8.6 billion pounds
FIRST TAKE: The value of net new sterling lending as reported by the Bank of England reversed course in December, rising �800 million to �8.6 billion. Net new secured lending rose for the first month in six, while net new consumer (i.e. unsecured) credit also rose, but more modestly. The total number of loans approved for house rose to 83,000 � its first gain in seven months.

RELEASE: UK CIPS/NTC Research Manufacturing PMI [United Kingdom]: 51.8
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers� Index, generally seen as a forward-looking indicator of industrial output, slid in January to 51.8 from December�s downwardly revised 53.3 level. This remains in stark contrast to the actual outturn in IP: the PMI has been above the 50.0 expansion/contraction threshold for 19 consecutive months, but industrial output has been in decline, using a three-month moving average, for four.

RELEASE: NTC Research Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI [Euro Zone]: 51.9
FIRST TAKE: The NTC Research euro zone manufacturing PMI showed a modest improvement in business conditions in January for the second month in a row. The overall index rose to 51.9 from 51.4 in December, its highest level since October last year.

RELEASE: Unemployment Rate [Euro Zone]: 8.9 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment in the euro zone rose to 8.9% in December 2004 from the downwardly revised 8.8% recorded in November (originally 8.9%), according to Eurostat.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Germany]: 95
FIRST TAKE: German retail sales performance came in below expectations in December. According to the Bundesbank, sales fell compared to November (-0.3% at constant prices) and continued to decline compared to one year ago (-2.7% at constant prices).

RELEASE: Employment Situation [Germany]: 227,000
FIRST TAKE: In January, the number of German jobless adjusted for seasonal factors increased by 227,000 compared to December. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate rose to 11.4 % from 10.8% in December, the highest level since December 1998.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: In line with expectations, the Norges Bank has decided to leave its benchmark sight deposit rate unchanged at its historic low 1.75% today.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Switzerland]: 1.2%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Federal Statistics Office, Swiss consumer prices rose 1.2% y/y in January, but were 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) lower when compared with the previous month.

RELEASE: Halifax Housing Price Index [United Kingdom]: 13.7%
FIRST TAKE: British house prices climbed for a second consecutive month in January, according to Halifax, climbing 0.8% m/m. Nevertheless, in the three months to January prices rose 'only' 13.7% from a year ago, versus 15.1% in the previous period. The latest increase is the slowest since December 2001.

RELEASE: UK CIPS/NTC Research Services PMI [United Kingdom]: 55.9
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. NTC/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers� Index reversed course in January, rising a full point to 55.9 on the back of new business, strengthening expectations, and falling prices. This beats expectations of a more modest 0.6 point gain.

RELEASE: NTC Research Euro-Zone Services PMI [Euro Zone]: 53.4
FIRST TAKE: The NTC Research euro-zone services PMI showed an improvement in business conditions in January, with the service sector growing at its fastest pace for three months. The overall index rose to 53.4 from 52.6 in December.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Euro Zone]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to hold its key policy rate constant. At the conclusion of its meeting, the Governing Council of the ECB kept the minimum bid rate on main refinancing operations (the repo rate)�the central bank�s main policy instrument�at 2.0%, its lowest level since January 1999.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Spain]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE) reported a calendar-adjusted industrial production rise of 0.9% y/y in December. This marks a deceleration from the downwardly-revised November figure of 2.2% (originally: 3.9%).

RELEASE: Retail Trade [Euro Zone]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: The euro-zone retail sector stymied some of the more gloomy forecasts and gained 0.2% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 0.5% y/y. While this is an improvement on the late summer and autumn, it is hardly a robust rebound and suggests continued malaise on the part of consumers.

RELEASE: Manufacturing Turnover and Orders Received [Germany]: 7.1%
FIRST TAKE: German manufacturing orders rose sharply in December. According to the Economy and Labour Ministry, the indicator rose a seasonally adjusted 7.1% from November 2004 and by 7.1% from the same period one year ago.

RELEASE: Labor Force Survey [Canada]: 7.0 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: Employment fell by 5,700 jobs in January and the unemployment rate held steady at 7.0%. The Canadian economy lost 2,100 full time jobs and 3,600 part-time jobs. Interestingly, manufacturers added 13,900 jobs in January. However, this was tempered by soft services sector employment. This is the third month that Canadian employment disappointed expectations.

Week Ending February 13

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece]: -0.9%
FIRST TAKE: According to the National Statistical Service, Greek industrial production fell 3.5% m/m and 0.9% y/y in December.

RELEASE: Merchandise Trade [France]: -1.9 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: France�s merchandise trade deficit widened once again in December, reversing November's one-off improvement. The shortfall came to �1.9 billion, versus �0.9 billion in November. As a result, the deficit for 2004 as a whole comes to �7.8 billion.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Central Bureau for Statistics, manufacturing output for the Netherlands in December fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% m/m, whilst in annual terms the industry recorded a modest rise of 0.5%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 7.9%
FIRST TAKE: Indian industrial production rose by 7.9% y/y in December, up from November's downwardly revised 7.7% (originally 7.9%), but decelerating from October's 10.1% y/y gain.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Ireland]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Central Statistics Office, industrial production in Ireland rebounded 8.3% in December, following a disappointing November, in which output declined 4.4%. In annual terms, activity rose 0.5%.

RELEASE: Machinery Orders [Japan]: -8.8%
FIRST TAKE: Core machinery orders fell as expected after last month's surprising spike. The headline figure was down 8.8% m/m, which was actually better than the consensus estimate of a 10.6% decline.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Germany]: 12.5
FIRST TAKE: According to the foreign trade statistics released this morning by the Federal Statistical Office, in December 2004, the value of German exported commodities decreased to �59.7 billion from �62.2 billion in November. The value of German imported commodities fell to �47.2 billion from �50.5 billion in November (seasonally adjusted). Thus, the foreign trade balance showed a surplus of �12.5 billion in December 2004.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: The French industrial sector, excluding construction, expanded by 0.7% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in December. Comparing the final quarter of 2004 to the same period of a year previously, INSEE reported that production rose by 1.6%. Output of consumer and semi-finished goods led the upswing.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 2.9%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Belgium, excluding construction, decreased in December for the third consecutive month, falling by 1.8% m/m. On an annual basis, the industrial production index increased by 2.9%.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.75%
FIRST TAKE: As was near-universally expected, the Bank of England�s Monetary Policy Committee elected to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for a sixth consecutive month. With both house price growth and the economic expansion running above the Bank�s forecasts of just three months ago, next week�s 'Inflation Report' will be key to the medium-term monetary policy outlook.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: -3.2%
FIRST TAKE: Swedish industrial production index contracted by a seasonally adjusted 3.2% m/m in December, following a decrease by 2.4% in November. On an annual basis, production decreased by 3.7% in December.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United Kingdom]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: The British industrial sector expanded on a monthly basis for a second consecutive period in December, gaining a modest 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) and 0.3% y/y - its first time above the year-ago level since July. This turnaround is good news, but thus far the manufacturing sector in the U.K. has failed to make sustainable gains and the economy very much remains on two disparate tracks. Further months of gain would be needed to confirm a change in trend.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [United Kingdom]: �-4.4 billion
FIRST TAKE: The total trade (i.e. goods and services) deficit of Britain with the rest of the world came to �3 billion in December, narrowing from a downwardly-revised �3.25 billion in November (originally: �3.12 billion). For the year as a whole, the deficit came to a record just above �34 billion � though such a result was well anticipated ahead of time.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Czech Republic]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: The year-on-year growth of Czech consumer prices decelerated sharply and in January the overall index increased by 1.7% after December�s 2.8% gain. On a monthly basis, the price level rose by 0.7%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 4.7%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production expanded by a not seasonally adjusted 4.7% y/y in December, according to the State Statistics Institute. On a month-on-month basis, industrial output increased by 8.9% in December.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: 1.2%
FIRST TAKE: Germany�s manufacturing industry picked up in December. Industrial production rose 1.2% m/m (seasonally adjusted), while on a yearly basis, industrial output increased by 0.9%.

RELEASE: Employment [Switzerland]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Swiss unemployment rose to 4.1% in January, up from 4.0% in the previous month. The number of registered unemployed increased by 3,616 to 162,032.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: 4.3%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Denmark rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.1% in December compared to November. The largest contribution to the rise came from the production of intermediate goods.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Norway]: -2.1%
FIRST TAKE: Norwegian industrial production contracted by a seasonally adjusted 3.3% m/m in December, extending the previous month's 1.3% m/m decline, and bringing the annual growth rate to -2.1% according to Statistics Norway. This completely reverses the +1.0% y/y gain notched in November.

Week Ending February 20

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 31.4%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence is consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3% real GDP growth. There is no indication that growth will either accelerate or slow substantially anytime through midyear. Attitudes are strongest in North America and weakest in South America. Asian business confidence is notably volatile. Businesses continue to invest aggressively in equipment and software and are absorbing new office and other space at the strongest pace since the survey began. Manufacturers are the most upbeat while retailers remain pessimistic.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: -1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian industrial production contracted a working-day adjusted 1.4% y/y in December. Output adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects fell 3.9% m/m.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Singapore]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: Singapore's December retail sales shocked markets by falling 5.7% from November when a 3.1% m/m decline was recorded. On a year-ago basis, retail sales were up 2.2% in December when a 9.0% y/y rise was anticipated.

RELEASE: GDP [Germany]: -0.2%
FIRST TAKE: According to the first release of national accounts data, German economic growth contracted in the fourth quarter of 2004. Real GDP dropped 0.2% compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. On yearly basis, real GDP rose by 1.5%. The data for the third quarter were revised downward, showing that economic performance stagnated as compared to the preceding quarter.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 3.9%
FIRST TAKE: Czech industrial output fell a seasonally adjusted 1.0% m/m in December, according to the data released this morning by the Czech Statistical Office. On an inflation-adjusted, year-to-year basis, production rose 8.3%, but after adjusting for calendar effects, activity climbed only 3.9%.

RELEASE: GDP [Netherlands]: 1.3%
FIRST TAKE: In annual terms, Dutch real GDP gained a not seasonally adjusted 1.3% in the fourth quarter, down marginally from the 1.4% y/y recorded in the previous quarter. According to figures released by Statistics Netherlands, the overall growth rate for 2004 was 1.3%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: -0.6%
FIRST TAKE: The industrial production index slid 0.6% in December from November (seasonally adjusted), which puts output 3.1% below the year-ago level, according to ISTAT, the Italian statistical agency. After the (downwardly revised) 1.0% drop in November, the December outcome confirmed the ongoing weakness of the Italian industrial sector.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United Kingdom]: 1.6%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation was broadly in line with expectations in January, as the annual gain in the CPI held at 1.6% y/y versus expectations (Bloomberg) of a 1.5% gain. The harmonized CPI fell 0.5% month on month, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the ONS. The gain is the same as in the previous month and, likely temporarily, halts the three consecutive months of quickening inflation through December. This is still below the central bank�s 2.0% target and though recent talk of a rate cut has been quashed, today�s figures do not, in our opinion, make a rate hike any more imminent.

RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 35.9
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment for Germany continued to improve in February. The index came in at 35.9 up from the 26.9 level touched in January. With this month�s jump, the indicator is marginally above its historical average of 34.5 points.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Poland]: 4.00%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Central Statistical Office, Polish CPI rose 0.1% m/m in January, and in annual terms by 4.0%, down from 4.4% in the previous month.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Brazil]: 18.75%
FIRST TAKE: Once again, the Central Bank of Brazil raised its target interest rate by 50 basis points to 18.75%. For a second time in the year, the central bank increased the Selic rate in order to curb inflation pressures.

RELEASE: Retail Sales Index [Czech Republic]: 2.8%
FIRST TAKE: In December, the Czech retail sales data confirmed the preceding months' trend and notched another year-on-year gain. According to the Czech Statistical Office, on a year-ago basis, constant price retail sales advanced 3.0% (not seasonally adjusted). On a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis, retail sales shrank by 0.8%.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Spain]: 3.1%
FIRST TAKE: Spanish harmonised consumer price inflation rose by 3.1% y/y in January, decelerating slightly from December's 3.2% rate. Monthly CPI inflation showed another deflationary month, with prices decreasing 0.8%.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Netherlands]: 0.8
FIRST TAKE: Dutch retail sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% y/y in December, according to Statistics Netherlands, up from -2.5% y/y in the previous month.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.6 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. labour market remains exceptionally tight. The claimant count jobless rate fell to 2.6%--a tenth of a percent lower than in the previous seven months. The total number of claimants, near-doubling expectations, fell by 11,000. Ex-bonus earnings growth (the Bank of England's preferred metric) rose 4.5% in the three months to December--a factor that will add weight to extant inflationary concerns.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Hungary]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian consumer price inflation continued to decelerate, recording a not seasonally adjusted rise of 4.1% y/y in January. Compared to December 2004, consumer prices increased by 0.7%.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Singapore]: 9.0%
FIRST TAKE: Singapore's January exports, excluding oil, slipped 0.6% seasonally adjusted from December. The City-State exported US$6.5 billion in non-oil goods in January, recording growth of 9.0% on a year-ago basis.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Sweden]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Swedish consumer prices decreased by 0.5% between December and January and were unchanged on a y/y basis in January. Core inflation UND1X reached 0.4% y/y.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 3.9%
FIRST TAKE: Retail activity in the U.K. rebounded in January, eschewing much of December�s weakness. Sales gained 0.9% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 3.9% on an annual basis. This compares well to December�s 3.2% gain but is well below the 7%+ increases in May, June, and September last year. Today�s figures compare to the consensus expectations of 0.8% m/m and 3.8% y/y increases. We reiterate the holiday sales figures are often distorted and hence an average of the November through February period will be a better assessment of the overall trend.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Poland]: -9.3%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Poland advanced by a not seasonally adjusted 4.7% y/y in January. Month on month, output contracted by 9.3% in January (in not seasonally adjusted terms), extending the previous month's 2.3% decline.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: In January, the Harmonized Consumer Price Index for Germany increased by 1.6% y/y and fell by 0.5% m/m, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

RELEASE: GDP [France]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: The French economy notched a substantial rebound in the final quarter of 2004, expanding by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% q/q, buoyed by the strongest gain in consumer spending since 2001. This revises upward the 0.7% estimate released by INSEE some weeks ago and implies a 2.3% in 2004 as a whole, versus only 0.5% in 2003.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: According to Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, industrial production for the euro zone increased 0.5 m/m (seasonally adjusted) in December, and recorded a 1.0 y/y gain.

Week Ending February 27

RELEASE: Producer Price Index [China]: 5.8%
FIRST TAKE: China's producer price index showed prices rose 5.8% from a year earlier in January after climbing 7.1% in the year through December. January's rise is the smallest expansion in this series since April 2004, as government lending curbs helped rein in industrial expansion.

RELEASE: Consumer Prices Index - Final [Italy]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: The Italian consumer price index (non-seasonally adjusted) was unchanged in January compared to December, according to ISTAT, the Italian statistical agency. The year-ago rate decelerated to 1.9% from 2.0% in December. The Harmonized CPI for Italy dropped by 0.1% m/m and rose by 2.0% y/y.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 8.25%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary slashed its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points today to 8.25%, defying market expectations for a fifty basis point cut.

RELEASE: Retail Trade [Canada]: 6.6%
FIRST TAKE: According to Statistics Canada, retail sales continued to decline in December, with a contraction of 0.4 % m/m (seasonally adjusted). In annual terms, retail trade recorded growth of 6.6%. Retail sales excluding automobiles fell 1.1% m/m and gained 6.4% y/y.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 1.6%
FIRST TAKE: In January, French consumer prices, as calculated by EU-harmonized standards, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% m/m, pulling annual inflation down to 1.6%. The tobacco tax hike of 2004 has fallen out of the index, removing one of the key transient factors buoying annual price growth.

RELEASE: Household Consumption Survey [France]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: French households expanded their spending in the first month of the new year, as total expenditures on manufactured goods rose a substantial 1.5% m/m (seasonally adjusted), putting year-ago growth at 3.8%. This compares to a 0.4% monthly dip in December, revised down from a 0.2% gain. The mandated discounting season undoubtedly had a role in boosting last month�s sales.

RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 6.6 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: According to ECB data, the monthly seasonally adjusted balance of payments surplus of the currency area came to �6.6 billion in December, as compared to an upwardly revised �4.4 billion surplus in the previous month (originally: �3.2 billion). In the financial account, a surplus of �4.5 billion was recorded, sliding from a downwardly revised surplus of �29.3 billion in November (originally: �30.5 billion). In 2004 as a whole, the euro zone notched a �40.2 billion current account surplus, equal to roughly 0.5% of GDP.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 5.7 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro zone�s trade surplus in the entirety of 2004 came to �74.4 billion, up from �69.7 billion in 2003. In December alone, the currency area notched its 22nd successive month in merchandise trade surplus, recording a positive balance of �5.7 billion. The net trade balance rebounded in the later months of 2004 but was still below its highs of midyear.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Canada]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Consumers paid 2.0%(y/y) more for goods and services in January 2005. This follows an increase of 2.1% in December. Gasoline prices were the largest contributor to the rise in headline CPI. Core CPI remains well-contained. Excluding energy, CPI rose 1.5%(y/y) in January 2004. Since last year, core CPI has been contained within the 1.4% to 1.6% range.

RELEASE: GDP [Spain]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Confirming last week's flash estimate, Spanish GDP rose 0.8% q/q and 2.7% y/y in the last quarter of 2004. Domestic demand was the main driving force.

RELEASE: Business Confidence [Sweden]: 1.0
FIRST TAKE: The Swedish confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry decreased to a seasonally adjusted +1 in January from +5 the previous month. The construction industry also fell to -1 in January.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Index [Sweden]: 11.6
FIRST TAKE: Swedish consumer confidence indicator decreased somewhat in February to 11.6 from 12.2 the previous month. Despite the decrease, consumer sentiments are now more positive than they were during the fourth quarter of 2004.

RELEASE: Retail Sales [Italy]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: In December, Italian retail sales were unchanged on a monthly basis in seasonally adjusted terms, after rising by 0.2% m/m in November. On a yearly basis, nominal sales shrank by 0.5% (not seasonally adjusted), after a 0.4% y/y dip in November. These figures confirm the weakness of Italian household consumption.

RELEASE: IFO Business Climate Index [Germany]: 95.5
FIRST TAKE: The IFO Business Climate Index dropped in February following the previous month�s jump, sliding to 95.5 from 96.4 in January. German businesses showed a less favourable judgment on the current situation and less optimistic expectations for the next six months.


RELEASE: Business Survey Indicators [Belgium]: -8.1
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence in Belgium, as measured by the National Bank of Belgium, decreased in February to -8.1, versus -3.8 in January. The weakening occurred in the manufacturing industry, which declined by 6.4 points.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Spain]: -6.2 billon euros
FIRST TAKE: The Spanish foreign trade sector notched a deficit of 6.2 billion euros in December, widening by 8.9% m/m and a staggering 44.2% y/y. Both exports and imports decreased on a monthly basis, and the annual growth in imports continued above the change in exports.

RELEASE: Retail Trade [Hungary]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: The Hungarian retail trade continues to experience moderating growth, as the year-on-year expansion in sales slowed yet again in December. According to the Central Statistical Office, sales expanded 2.2% y/y�nearly half the upwardly-revised rate of expansion in November and the smallest gain in 2004. In the year as a whole, retail sales expanded 5.7%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Philippines]: 5.7%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial activity in the Philippines, as reported by the National Statistics Office (NSO), fell 1.4% m/m in December, but was nonetheless 5.7% above the year before's level. November's 8.7% annual increase was revised down to an 8.1% gain.

RELEASE: GDP [Taiwan]: 3.3%
FIRST TAKE: The Taiwanese economic expansion slowed for a second consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter, according to National Statistics of Taiwan. In the final three months of the year, real GDP grew at 3.3% on a year-ago basis, not seasonally adjusted, down from 5.3% (unrevised) in the third quarter.

RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Italy]: -2.0 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: According to ISTAT, the Italian statistical office, in January, the balance of trade with non-EU countries came to negative �1959 million (not seasonally adjusted), whereas in January 2004 the deficit was �2161 million.

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Czech Republic]: 2.25%
FIRST TAKE: The Czech National Bank left all three of its monetary policy instruments unchanged at the conclusion of today�s meeting. The key two-week repo rate is 2.25%, following a surprise 25 basis point cut in January.

RELEASE: Business Survey [France]: 104
FIRST TAKE: The French business confidence index, as reported by INSEE, the national statistics agency, fell in February, dipping to 104 from three successive months at 105. A dip in orders and a deterioration in respondents' personal business outlook were behind the slide.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [France]: 10.0 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The French labour market took a turn for the worse in January, as the official jobless rate calculated by the Labour Ministry rose to 10% after nearly half-a-year at 9.9%. This is the worst that things have been since February 2000.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [Taiwan]: 13.0%
FIRST TAKE: Taiwan's industrial production jumped 13% y/y in January, up from last month's fall of 0.9%.

RELEASE: ECB Monetary Development (Monetary Aggregates) [Euro Zone]: 6.5%
FIRST TAKE: According to the measurements of the European Central Bank, the annual rate of growth of M3 accelerated to 6.6% in January 2005, from 6.4% in December 2004. The three-month moving average of the annual growth rates of M3 over the period November 2004 to January 2005 was 6.3% compared to 6.1% in the period October to December 2004.

RELEASE: KOF Leading Indicator [Switzerland]: 0.5
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the KOF leading indicator of Swiss business expectations recorded a fall in February. The gauge fell to 0.50 from an upwardly revised 0.53 in January (previously 0.42).

RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Poland]: 6.50%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Poland elected to stay its hand and leave the 14-day deposit rate, its benchmark rate of interest, at 6.5% today. More importantly, the NBP decided to drop its tightening bias.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [Brazil]: 10.2 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: Brazilian unemployment rose in January to 10.2% with respect to 9.6% in December. Unemployment, however, is seasonally high in the first month of the year.

RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: Fourth quarter real GDP growth was revised up to 3.8% from the originally reported 3.1%. Exports were revised sharply higher, and there were notable upward revisions to business investment (both equipment and structures), inventories, residential investment and government purchases. Consumer spending was revised lower mainly due to downward revisions to durable goods spending.

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