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Yeah America is different. Where I am prices are real high and you need a lot of money to buy and keep. Also the bank charges you a high interest rate so it really sucks. I am looking to buy some properties that will cost me 931 a month on mortgage and I have a feeling like in twenty years those properties will be worth a lot of money.

quote:

Originally posted by kush paintings Im thinking of starting a portfolio soon with a time frame of 2 years. I've got some stocks in mind let me know what you guys think (for those who know their shit) GLD- STREETTRACKS GOLD SBX- STARBUCKS AAPL- APPLE XLE- ENERGY AND NATURAL GAS ETF BHP- BHP BILLTON

I'm not saying my opinion is right or that I know all there is to know about markets, but my personal opinions are:

GLD: Gold has been in full on bull mode and is a great hedge against risk. Given the various global, economic, financial, cultural, political, etc. risks in today's world, this is probably a good holding for any portfolio. NEM is a pure-play gold producer that is largely unhedged and hasn't participated as fully with the gold rally, so it could be an attractive option, but there's nothing wrong with a gold ETF in your portfolio. Remember, the goal is not to pick stocks that will only all go up all the time (that's just a pipe dream), rather to build a balanced portfolio that will perform well overall in various market environments.

SBUX: I always think of dotcoms when I see SBUX, but it is really nothing of the sort. It is the McDonalds of coffee with huge global expansion potential. I don't have a strong opinion on the stock and it has certainly had a great run, though it doesn't appear to be out of steam yet.

AAPL: Probably late to be getting on board given that you've missed so much of the upside, but the latest announcement about Boot Camp and being able to run Windows XP on a Mac could really help them gain back some market share in the CPU market which could give another leg of upside. However, I think the story is definitely getting long in the tooth at this point. Still a great story though.

XLE: I actually owned this ETF for about a long time. I bought at $29 and sold out around $50. In retrospect I should've held on to it a bit longer. It's no secret that there are big secular forces in place to drive the need for energy on both the supply and demand side. On the supply side, we have issues of Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, etc., which has caused major supply concerns and hence is partly responsible for the huge runup in crude prices. Also, given that Katrina is still a pretty fresh memory, with summer (and the summer driving season) coming up, there is likely additional upward pressure on prices due to supply concerns. On the demand side, you have major industrialization going on in China and India which has major potential to drive energy demand. In short, I think there is a great long-term play on energy, but I don't know the best way to play it. I like oil services plays, specifically deep-water drilling. I recently bought back into the group, but I bought PXJ which is another oil service ETF (with a lower price point so I could get more shares for my buck) and seems more exposed to drillers and E&P type names. I think XLE probably still works for a patient investor.

BHP: Don't really know it, but it's a resource play so it probably does well as long as the commodity bull market continues and Brazil/Russia/India/China continue to be intensely resource focused economies.


It's not that easy to make good, steady returns in the stock market (particularly in the current environment!). In the end I think it's important that a person serious about investing their own money do their homework before throwing money into the market. There are too many people out there spouting bullshit for a person to not do a good bit of work on their own. I read an interesting stat lately that the average person spends vastly more time researching what kind of car they plan to buy than they actually spend finding out what a piece of crap GM stock is...or something like that.

Well that doesnt suprise me at all, but I think both you and metal are right, I have too many stocks in mind that are probably overvalued at the moment. I think, Josh, you brought up a good point as far as investing in a company that has flown under the radar in a hot sector. I definently want stocks in metals, energy, and oil, but like you said, I don't know the best plays in those sectors. If someone does, and would care to take the time to explain so, it'd be much appreciated.

Damn, this week isn't over and I have lost too much money. My worth is 3744. I lost too much money today I only had one winner. VDSI and the rest were losers. SMXC is really killing me but I don't want to sell it.

quote:

Originally posted by metalgearsolid Damn, this week isn't over and I have lost too much money. My worth is 3744. I lost too much money today I only had one winner. VDSI and the rest were losers. SMXC is really killing me but I don't want to sell it.

You could've owned Aetna or Express Scripts!

Symbol
Current
Price Change
$ %
Day's
Gain Qty Price Paid Total Gain
$ %
Market Val Edit
CDE Buy / Sell 6.98 0.37 5.60% $37.00 100 $6.93 -$7.99 -1.13% $698.00 Edit
COLT Buy / Sell 5.05 0.01 0.20% $1.00 100 $5.0399 -$11.98 -2.32% $505.00 Edit
ETQ Buy / Sell 6.62 0.12 1.85% $12.00 100 $6.59 -$9.99 -1.49% $662.00 Edit
FRG Buy / Sell 6.35 0.36 6.01% $36.00 100 $6.70 -$47.99 -7.03% $635.00 Edit
JAX Buy / Sell 8.45 0.19 2.30% $0.95 5 $8.25 -$11.99 -22.11% $42.25 Edit
SMXC Buy / Sell 9.71 0.15 1.57% $6.00 40 $10.37 -$39.39 -9.21% $388.40 Edit
VDSI Buy / Sell 9.36 0.36 4.00% $36.00 100 $9.1999 $3.02 0.32% $936.00 Edit
Cash 7.04 $7.04
Totals $128.95 $4,000.00 -$126.31 -3.16% $3,873.69

I know thats hard to read but you see my net worth is 3,873.69 Today I had 128.95 today but in order to start making money i need to get passed 126.31. I hope by 2-3wks I will start earning money.

Hey Shakka is etrade to expensive? Which discount broker do you think I should have chosen?

quote:

Originally posted by metalgearsolid Hey Shakka is etrade to expensive? Which discount broker do you think I should have chosen?

In all honesty, online trading is pretty much a commoditized business at this point. They're all pretty cheap on a per transaction basis. I know a lot of people use TD Waterhouse and are fine with it. Most places will even give you a certain number of free trades when you open an account which is nice if you have less net worth and don't want to see your returns gobbled up by commissions.

At work I have to use a Schwab account which is about $19.95 per trade (A huge ripoff in my opinion), but I am bound by compliance rules since I'm in the biz.

Even better are institutional desks that give you a per share rate. We usually pay abou 4c/share which is next to nothing for small investors, but is really meant for larger institutions and actually generates much higher commissions on large trades (10's-100's of thousands of shares).

But yea, I'm sure eTrade is fine.

quote:

Originally posted by Shakka In all honesty, online trading is pretty much a commoditized business at this point. They're all pretty cheap on a per transaction basis. I know a lot of people use TD Waterhouse and are fine with it. Most places will even give you a certain number of free trades when you open an account which is nice if you have less net worth and don't want to see your returns gobbled up by commissions. At work I have to use a Schwab account which is about $19.95 per trade (A huge ripoff in my opinion), but I am bound by compliance rules since I'm in the biz. Even better are institutional desks that give you a per share rate. We usually pay abou 4c/share which is next to nothing for small investors, but is really meant for larger institutions and actually generates much higher commissions on large trades (10's-100's of thousands of shares). But yea, I'm sure eTrade is fine.

Ok-thank you now what do you think about my stocks?

quote:

Originally posted by metalgearsolid Ok-thank you now what do you think about my stocks?

I dunno. I'll have to take a look sometime this week. I was out of town all weekend and just got back home and am now playing catch up.

In any event, I think people should do their own research and not rely on the opinions of others to make their decisions. I just finished reading a great book on the plane ride home called "Beating the Business Cycle" which I think is a good read for any would-be investor.

I'll try to get back to you in due time.

Disclaimer: None of this is actual investment advice, just my personal thoughts. I am just as likely to be wrong as plenty of other people. Always do your own research and do what you feel most comfortable with. It is YOUR money, invest it wisely! My personal investments are restricted to ETFs, mutual funds and government bonds. Due to compliance issues I can't invest in specific stocks or corporate bonds.

quote:

Originally posted by metalgearsolid CDE COLT ETQ FRG SMXC VDSI Cash 7.04

CDE - Never a bad idea to have some gold exposure, imo. Especially with the dollar starting to decline in earnest again. I don't really follow a lot of gold names specifically, but NEM is the big one that a lot of people buy and they don't do as much hedging as a lot of others so their stock price tends to track the actual commodity price more closely. That said, Neither NEM nor CDE have had the explosive rallies that physcial gold has had lately. Maybe that means they'll play catch up, maybe it means something else is going on. In any event, you could diversify your gold position by simply buying the gold ETF (GLD). It definitely tracks the commodity more closely, so if that's what you're after, the ETF makes sense. All that said, gold has certainly spiked up recently--for good reason--but that could make it dangerous up here.

COLT - Some of these smaller-cap telecom related names have never been my specialty. It's a highly regulated industry that's going through a lot of change. I personally like the wireless side vs. the old wireline stuff as it's less regulated and has better growth potential. However it can be quite volatile as spending can be lumpy, and regulations can still cause hiccups. Fundamentally, I really don't know COLT that well so I can't really say one way or another on this one. You might also consider something like Verizon (VZ) which has both wireline and a growing wireless business. They are also involved in buildout of fiber-to-the-premise which, while costing them now, should hopefully pay dividends in the future. And speaking of dividends, the stock pays a nice yield of around 5% which isn't too shabby.

ETQ - I don't know this one, but copper prices continue to defy gravity. Given industrialization in emerging markets it's fine to have commodity exposure, though be wary of the potential impact any global slowdown could have as well as central banks around the world are getting into tightening mode (US, PBoC, Japan, UK). I have never heard of this company specifically though, so I can't speak to it's specific fundamentals. You never know with some of these companies that have mines in 2nd/3rd world countries what could happen. Chavez could nationalize oil, The new Bolivian pres could do something, there could be battles and conflicts with tribal factions. Just risks to be wary of. Like I said, I know nothing about this particular company.

FRG - Another commodity/resource company that I'm not specifically familliar with, but see my reasonings above. A rising tide tends to lift all boats. Some specific favorites of mine in this space might be TIE (A titanium play with exposure to aerospace/defense), or CCJ (A uranium play).

SMXC - Looks like it has performed well. It's a transport name that I don't know well (You seem to dabble more in micro-cap names that aren't really followed by any research firms--which isn't necessarily a bad thing, though it means you have to really make sure to do solid research since there is little other information out there for you). I don't know how they hedge their fuel costs, but that would probably be the primary risk. In a solid economy, I'd think they would perform just fine, but again, you seem to be in names that aren't heavily followed.

VDSI - Beats the hell out of me. Internet security--are they a potential takeout candidate in your opinion?

Cash - You have a tiny cash position, which is fine if you want to be fully invested. Depending on your view of the economy, you may want to increase/decrease your cash weigting depending on how defensive you want to be.

Sounds like your portfolio is most heavily weighted towards commodities/resources/minerals. If you want to diversify, you might also consider some non/less cyclical industries like healthcare or education or something along those lines. Or you could seek shelter in some short-term T-bills which have a decent yield and will generate income for you so that you're overall returns aren't completely driven by capital gains which may or may not ever materialize.

Hope that helps--just my 2 cents.

quote:

Originally posted by metalgearsolid You at leat need over 75k to put as down payment.

There are many ways to get around a downpayment for a property. The easiest one is getting a 0-down mortage which are actually provided by some banks. I'm sure you have a local one that offers it. Mind you this is not for everyone, as you need to calculate that the potential passive income you'll get from your tenants will cover a specific (as determined by you) part of your mortgage.

Another way is to buy properties off investors, and have them sponsor you. There are many ways to negotiate this as well. An example would be to simply have the seller provide you w/ the downpayment whilist you sign over a certain % of your income from that property for a specific amount of time. If both of you have several properties the possibilities for negotiations open up.

So yeah, money down is not a requirement at all times. Just consider your options.

thats one thing i wish i invested in years ago...

currency trading, I for sure could of made a nice amount of money from that.



So many other things I should of bought stocks of, oh well. There will be others.

quote:

Originally posted by jesteraver thats one thing i wish i invested in years ago... currency trading, I for sure could of made a nice amount of money from that. So many other things I should of bought stocks of, oh well. There will be others.

If we only knew which markets boom in advance, right?

quote:

Originally posted by OrZonE If we only knew which markets boom in advance, right?

*builds time machine*

muhahaha bill gates move out of the way... ur billions wont match mine muhahahaha

I think Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) looks like a very attractive buy right now. If anybody would care to discuss/debate I would love to.

Here you go MGS. Be careful with your ETQ. Up on a spike with this kind of stuff going on. You gotta be careful.

quote:

May 2, 2006 Bolivian Nationalizes the Oil and Gas Sector By PAULO PRADA RIO DE JANEIRO, May 1 � President Evo Morales of Bolivia ordered the military to occupy energy fields around the country on Monday as he placed Bolivia's oil and gas reserves under state control. Surrounded by soldiers at an oil field operated by the Brazilian energy giant Petr�leo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, Mr. Morales ordered foreign producers to relinquish control of all fields and channel future sales of hydrocarbons through the state-owned energy company. He gave foreign companies 180 days to renegotiate existing contracts with the government, or leave the country. "The time has come, the awaited day, a historic day in which Bolivia retakes absolute control of our natural resources," Mr. Morales declared, according to The Associated Press. "The looting by the foreign companies has ended." The decree is the latest step by Latin America governments from Venezuela to Ecuador to assert greater control over the energy sector, moves that have sent shivers through foreign producers. Motivated by nationalist politics and soaring oil and gas prices, governments have seized an opportunity to gain higher revenues while parlaying their control over future energy supplies into greater political leverage, both at home and abroad. "Governments in the region see energy as a commodity they can use to push populist agendas," said Adriano Pires, director of the Brazilian Center for Infrastructure Studies, an energy consultancy in Rio de Janeiro. "From a political point of view, it's a powerful issue to manipulate, but from an industrial point of view, it can do real harm." Mr. Morales's decree, in effect to nationalize Bolivia's energy industry, which includes the second-biggest gas reserves in Latin America after Venezuela, quickly added to the nervousness of foreign producers. They said they would proceed with caution until the government clarified under what conditions it plans to renegotiate contracts. "We're worried," said Bego�a Elices, director of external relations in Madrid at Repsol YPF S.A., the Spanish oil company, the second biggest investor in Bolivia's gas sector. "There will be a lot of fine print to consider." Petrobras, the biggest investor, with over $1 billion invested in Bolivia, criticized the government's "unilateral attitude" and said it would take whatever steps necessary to "protect the rights of the company" and guarantee Brazil's supply of gas, half of which comes from Bolivia. The importance of Bolivian gas to Brazil � the largest market in the region � prompted concern even from President Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva, a leftist and former union leader who publicly hailed Mr. Morales's rise to power. Mr. da Silva is to meet with Jos� Gabrielli de Azevedo, chief executive at Petrobras, on Tuesday, along with senior officials from Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy. The Bolivian announcement fulfilled a campaign pledge that helped Mr. Morales rise to power last December. It was foreshadowed last year when Bolivia approved a major increase in the royalties paid by foreign producers for the right to operate in the country. In April, President Hugo Ch�vez of Venezuela, a mentor to Mr. Morales, seized two oil fields operated by the Total group, of France, and Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi, of Italy, because they were unwilling to give more control of their operations to Petr�leos de Venezuela, the state-run energy giant. But Mr. Morales's step on Monday was the most assertive yet, and many industry observers feared such moves would scare away investors and jeopardize the region's economies. "This isn't like Saudi Arabia, which over the years has developed a know-how to dominate the industry independently," said Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a consultancy in Washington that studies energy issues. "When you cause problems for foreign investors, you cause problems for those who know how to create and develop the industry."

shit today was a real bad day. $3,125 and one of my comanies went bankrupt so I lost $700. Shit man the worse thing is ETRADE won't let me fucking sell they allowed me to buy but I can't sell. ******s.

I don't know that COLT went bankrupt, though it certainly doesn't sound like positive news (getting delisted). Reading through, it sounds like they want to get everyone who holds their stock to sell it back to them or something. It doesn't sound like you have a zero on your hands, though it certainly doesn't sound great either. The stock will likely change tickers or something and you should be able to get back in there and sell 'em out. The market is a bitch.

At least you don't own THLD. Down 75% after the close!

I just had a chat with my barber and she also works at Publix. Publix stock went up 20-30 dollars this year and she's getting dividends of I believe 1900 dollars. Not too bad

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN property > stock market. you need to have a whole lot to invest to make anywhere near the same amount of money. whereas a bank will lend you the money to buy property a whole lot easier investing $4000 in the stock market is a pointless exercise (unless you have some hot inside information). you might as well play lotto. metalgear is correct in that you want stocks that will grow; however property always grows. for example, a family home 30 years ago cost an average of $37,000 in my city. those houses are now selling for $350,000 or so.

I'd like to point out that if you bought a house for $37,000 30 years ago and it's worth $350,000 now, your annual rate of return for the house was about 7.75% - below the annual total rate of return of the S&P500 in the same time period which was about 10%. And if you think that's a small difference, you'd have about $600,000 today if you had put your money in the market - thanks to the power of compounding.

$600,000 > $350,000
stock market > property

In addition, you'd have been paying property taxes on the house along with a capital gains tax if you were to sell it, which would be more than the capital gains and dividend taxes that you'd have paid on your stock market investment.

quote:

Originally posted by Choobak I'd like to point out that if you bought a house for $37,000 30 years ago and it's worth $350,000 now, your annual rate of return for the house was about 7.75% - below the total annual rate of return of the S&P500 in the same time period which was about 10%. And if you think that's a small difference, you'd have about $600,000 if you had put your money in the market - thanks to the power of compounding. $600,000 > $350,000 stock market > property In addition, you'd have been paying property taxes on the house along with a capital gains tax if you were to sell it, which would be more than the capital gains and dividend taxes that you'd have paid on your stock market investment.

That is a completely true statement.

Assuming you were invested in the right stocks such that your overall performance mirrored that of the entire index! You probably would've had much less volatility in your investment with the house, but that's just one difference between the two.

Also, a lot of the taxes on the house could be avoided/deferred depending on what was done with the proceeds.

quote:

Originally posted by metalgearsolid Symbol Current Price Change $ % Day's Gain Qty Price Paid Total Gain $ % Market Val Edit CDE Buy / Sell 6.98 0.37 5.60% $37.00 100 $6.93 -$7.99 -1.13% $698.00 Edit COLT Buy / Sell 5.05 0.01 0.20% $1.00 100 $5.0399 -$11.98 -2.32% $505.00 Edit ETQ Buy / Sell 6.62 0.12 1.85% $12.00 100 $6.59 -$9.99 -1.49% $662.00 Edit FRG Buy / Sell 6.35 0.36 6.01% $36.00 100 $6.70 -$47.99 -7.03% $635.00 Edit JAX Buy / Sell 8.45 0.19 2.30% $0.95 5 $8.25 -$11.99 -22.11% $42.25 Edit SMXC Buy / Sell 9.71 0.15 1.57% $6.00 40 $10.37 -$39.39 -9.21% $388.40 Edit VDSI Buy / Sell 9.36 0.36 4.00% $36.00 100 $9.1999 $3.02 0.32% $936.00 Edit Cash 7.04 $7.04 Totals $128.95 $4,000.00 -$126.31 -3.16% $3,873.69 I know thats hard to read but you see my net worth is 3,873.69 Today I had 128.95 today but in order to start making money i need to get passed 126.31. I hope by 2-3wks I will start earning money. Hey Shakka is etrade to expensive? Which discount broker do you think I should have chosen?

I'm looking at your positions and was wondering how much you are paying for trades. If you are paying $10/trade, I don't understand why you would open up small positions like the ones you have in JAX and SMXC. Your trading costs on the JAX trade alone mean you're not going to see profit on that trade unless the stock gains 50%. On your SMXC trade you won't see profits until the stock gains 6%.

I pay $10/trade myself and I generally don't enter equity positions smaller than $1500.

quote:

Originally posted by Choobak I'm looking at your positions and was wondering how much you are paying for trades. If you are paying $10/trade, I don't understand why you would open up small positions like the ones you have in JAX and SMXC. Your trading costs on the JAX trade alone mean you're not going to see profit on that trade unless the stock gains 50%. On your SMXC trade you won't see profits until the stock gains 6%. I pay $10/trade myself and I generally don't enter equity positions smaller than $1500.

heh, I felt like wasting money. Yeah, JAX wont go anywhere but SMXC already has done a lot for me. Its the only stock that has been giving me gains.

quote:

Originally posted by Choobak I'm looking at your positions and was wondering how much you are paying for trades. If you are paying $10/trade, I don't understand why you would open up small positions like the ones you have in JAX and SMXC. Your trading costs on the JAX trade alone mean you're not going to see profit on that trade unless the stock gains 50%. On your SMXC trade you won't see profits until the stock gains 6%. I pay $10/trade myself and I generally don't enter equity positions smaller than $1500.

That's the problem with trying to actively trade with limited funds. You should just find a good diversified mutual fund and let it grow. Without enough capital at work for you, it's difficult to actively play the market given the cost of trading. Even if I buy 50 shares of something, it costs me $20 to do the trade--on both ends, so effectively, my cost becomes $1/share, making it a bit tougher to realize a significant return. That doesn't mean you can't still be wise with your money, though.

quote:

Originally posted by Choobak I'd like to point out that if you bought a house for $37,000 30 years ago and it's worth $350,000 now, your annual rate of return for the house was about 7.75% - below the annual total rate of return of the S&P500 in the same time period which was about 10%. And if you think that's a small difference, you'd have about $600,000 today if you had put your money in the market - thanks to the power of compounding. $600,000 > $350,000 stock market > property In addition, you'd have been paying property taxes on the house along with a capital gains tax if you were to sell it, which would be more than the capital gains and dividend taxes that you'd have paid on your stock market investment.

Amen to that! The Aussie stock market is to thank for my new car in the garage

I dont have shares at the moment. I need a little bit of liquidity (i'm getting 6.4% p.a. with the likes of BankWest and ING Direct anyway), but I've got a few speculative tips (in no particular order):

WBC - Westpac Banking Corporation... If you're going to invest in one of the big banks, this is the one to be in over the next couple of years.

JBH - JB Hi-fi... Everyone's favourite retail store has gone ape-shit over the last few months. Tax cuts and strong outlooks have made the price skyrocket in the last few weeks, but I'd say theres plenty of potential left.

TAP - Tap Oil... Volatile resources. Good for a quick buck.

PDN - Paladin Resources... 3000% odd return over the last decade, need I say more? Prospective uranium deals could be big in the next few years. Keep an eye.

RORM - "Rest of Resources Market"... get into anything resources people I probably wouldnt leave money in there without keeping an eye on things, but demand from China and India should drive the market for at least a few more decent quarters.

If shares dont tickle your bunghole, stick with listed or commercial property. The housing market is ratshit on the eastern seaboard. Steer well clear of Sydney (!!), Melbourne and Brisbane. Hobart if you have to. Perth and Darwin are still doing well, but are possibly over-priced, thanks to the resource boom.

If domestic housing is a must and you need something in the eastern states - go for the "tree change". My tip is that inland 'weekend' type properties will catch up in value with their coastal and urban counterparts. Places in Victoria like the Murray-Ovens region are stunningly beautiful, and relatively cheap. Towns along the Murray River are starting to come good too.

So many investment choice, so little money.

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