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-- An updated Monty Show paradox for all you COR brainiacs
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quote:

Originally posted by Psy-T put the 14 in the teapot before you pour?

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan zero in the first one, 7 in the other two>?

Zero is not an odd number!

You'd put 1 in the first cup, 1 in the second cup, and 12 in the last cup.

Duh.

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan zero in the first one, 7 in the other two>?

get wit it!

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Originally posted by Akridrot Zero is not an odd number! You'd put 1 in the first cup, 1 in the second cup, and 12 in the last cup. Duh.

lol what the fuck!

quote:

Originally posted by Akridrot Zero is not an odd number! You'd put 1 in the first cup, 1 in the second cup, and 12 in the last cup. Duh.

12 is a multiple of 2, and hence even, not odd

quote:

Originally posted by Akridrot Zero is not an odd number!

I bet the first person thought it was odd there werent any nutra-sweets in their tea. Bastard

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan lol what the fuck!

quote:

Originally posted by Psy-T 12 is a multiple of 2, and hence even, not odd

Don't you get it? Think laterally!!!

If I put 12 packets of Nutra-Sweet in a cup of tea, that would be an ODD number, wouldn't it?!

LOL

edit: Someone rename this "The thread of paradoxes, and trick questions"

i don't know what Nutra-sweet are!!!

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan i don't know what Nutra-sweet are!!!

Packets of sugar, man. I used to see them at clinics.

how many are in a packet? meh this sucks

to the COR, most numbers are odd.

Nutra-sweets were never my strong point.

Someone come up with a new question, riddle, puzzle.

A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes.

Can you explain why?

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes. Can you explain why?

Because of the lag on the internets.

quote:

Originally posted by Akridrot Because of the lag on the internets.

Fraid not!

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN im not understanding the logic youve used, with the 3/5 here. why arent the odds changed to each door being 1/3 chance? if you had five doors, and five contestants got to choose a door each, the chances of a correct guess will increase that corresponding amount, but no unopened door is ever going to have more of a chance than any other unopened door.

the game starts with 5 possible locations for the car
you bet on two of those, 2 in 5 chance for it to be there
the three you didn't bet on have a 3 in 5 chance for the car to be there
the host opens two empty doors. the car's location does not change as a result, obviously, but, the probability of the car being in one of those 3 doors has not changed, the fact that you know it's not in the third or the fourth door tells you there's a higher probability of it being in the fifth door.

i can try to rephrase myself endlessly, but if you can't understand it from my words,, just run the damn simulations lol.

quote:

Originally posted by Psy-T also, gambler's fallacy is in fact the fallacy you are falling to here: you're the one who thinks that past event affect the future event by increasing your choices' probability from 2/5 to 2/3; the elimination of two doors does not increase the probability of your initial choices in being right, however, it does inherently tell us that those two doors have a zero probability of holding the car, and hence the last door has a probability of 3/5 of holding the car.

absolutely correct!!!

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes. Can you explain why?

he didn't turn around, and was driving all the way back in the reverse gear. the speedometer and odometer got fucked up and read the wrong number back?

quote:

Originally posted by Psy-T the game starts with 5 possible locations for the car you bet on two of those, 2 in 5 chance for it to be there the three you didn't bet on have a 3 in 5 chance for the car to be there the host opens two empty doors. the car's location does not change as a result, obviously, but, the probability of the car being in one of those 3 doors has not changed, the fact that you know it's not in the third or the fourth door tells you there's a higher probability of it being in the fifth door. i can try to rephrase myself endlessly, but if you can't understand it from my words,, just run the damn simulations lol.

i understand your words, i just dont think youre right

each door has 1/5 chance. take two doors away, each door has 1/3 chance. by eliminating the two other doors, the probability isnt "transferred" over to the fifth door, each change in the doors equates to a change in ALL the doors, not just the unopened unselected one.

thus it starts 1/5, then becomes 1/4 then 1/3. since you have a free choice at the beginning, the probability for all doors remains the same.

quote:

Originally posted by ZeJayMan A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes. Can you explain why?

lol. because 80 mins=1 hr 20 minutes.

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN lol. because 80 mins=1 hr 20 minutes.

winner, lol.

quote:

Originally posted by Jocker he didn't turn around, and was driving all the way back in the reverse gear. the speedometer and odometer got fucked up and read the wrong number back?

unlucky, and your avatar is just mint.

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN i understand your words, i just dont think youre right each door has 1/5 chance. take two doors away, each door has 1/3 chance. by eliminating the two other doors, the probability isnt "transferred" over to the fifth door, each change in the doors equates to a change in ALL the doors, not just the unopened unselected one. thus it starts 1/5, then becomes 1/4 then 1/3. since you have a free choice at the beginning, the probability for all doors remains the same.

you would be right IF the game host just took away (without opening) the other doors. BUT he knows which ones are 100% empty (and two of those he opens).

HOWEVER, your first choice is not affected by his actions, only the other doors are.

it is called a paradox for some reason: because it indeed goes against common sense and intuition at first. that's why it's hard to understand. but this should make it clearer:

consider, that there is a bowl with lottery tickets. exactly 1000 tickets. you just pick 1. the probability that you win is 1/1000. then, all the other tickets are displayed as not winning. do your chances of winning increase? you still hold the original ticket with the original probability of 1/1000. when there are only two tickets left - yours and 1 in the bowl, yours will still have that 1/1000 and not 1/2 (EXACTLY because the host has been removing tickets which are 100% not winning). and the ticket left in the bowl, of course, will have a chance of winning of 999/1000.

quote:

Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN i understand your words, i just dont think youre right each door has 1/5 chance. take two doors away, each door has 1/3 chance. by eliminating the two other doors, the probability isnt "transferred" over to the fifth door, each change in the doors equates to a change in ALL the doors, not just the unopened unselected one. thus it starts 1/5, then becomes 1/4 then 1/3. since you have a free choice at the beginning, the probability for all doors remains the same.

a door being opened does not make a door disappear

just run a few simulations (the greater the number of doors in play [ala my cards analogy from before] the lesser simulations you'd have to run to see it's true), you'll eat your words, guaranteed

Here's a novel idea, someone bust out a deck of cards and calculate the odds manually

I'd do it myself if I could find a deck.

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