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Posted by slingshot on Apr-27-2009 22:01:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut

So, off that topic: why the hell are coal traders worried about swine flu, and how the hell did GM manage to claw its way back to $2 on such a brutal day?


It's a traders market dude....any chance there is for the street to play on volatility they're going to take it and use it to push things up or down. Any sort of news, be it good or bad is going to start a chain reaction. There aren't too many opportunities right now....as soon as the market gets a hold of one it's going to be pushed either too high or too low....which seems to be the theme of the last year and a bit pretty much. The only way to make money right now is basically to get in on these trades. Finding steady cash flow streams to be able to asses things from a fundamental perspective is pretty challenging right now.


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-27-2009 22:10:

quote:
Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
on another note check out novavax

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ANVAX

they're geared towards having a vaccine for this swine flu. Their stocks opened today at near 4 dollars from 1.

Funny, I saw some spam about them a week ago and figured it was another pump-and-dump (it probably was, at the time). Wish I'd looked again this morning.

At this point I'd be pretty afraid to touch it, after a 2-day rally of over 200%. But, then again, they did this a few years ago with the Avian Flu panic and it went up about 700% to $8. Decisions...


quote:
Originally posted by slingshot
It's a traders market dude....any chance there is for the street to play on volatility they're going to take it and use it to push things up or down. Any sort of news, be it good or bad is going to start a chain reaction. There aren't too many opportunities right now....as soon as the market gets a hold of one it's going to be pushed either too high or too low....which seems to be the theme of the last year and a bit pretty much. The only way to make money right now is basically to get in on these trades. Finding steady cash flow streams to be able to asses things from a fundamental perspective is pretty challenging right now.

Actually, most of the REITs and other income trusts and dividend funds have been doing incredibly well. Likely because shares were beaten up so badly but they managed to keep their dividends. But at my age I'm not going to be satisfied with a lame-o 15-20% annual return. That's retirement income, not growth. If I can swing just 5% per week, I'll be laughing.

And you're right, this is not a long-term investor friendly market for the most part, it's extremely panicky and trading on hype, and I basically have been just following the hype. It worked with SIRI, RIM, and FAS (day of WFC announcement), but also failed miserably with FAZ a week later and GE... guess you can't win 'em all.


Posted by exstasie on Apr-27-2009 22:51:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
Funny, I saw some spam about them a week ago and figured it was another pump-and-dump (it probably was, at the time). Wish I'd looked again this morning.

At this point I'd be pretty afraid to touch it, after a 2-day rally of over 200%. But, then again, they did this a few years ago with the Avian Flu panic and it went up about 700% to $8. Decisions...



Actually, most of the REITs and other income trusts and dividend funds have been doing incredibly well. Likely because shares were beaten up so badly but they managed to keep their dividends. But at my age I'm not going to be satisfied with a lame-o 15-20% annual return. That's retirement income, not growth. If I can swing just 5% per week, I'll be laughing.

And you're right, this is not a long-term investor friendly market for the most part, it's extremely panicky and trading on hype, and I basically have been just following the hype. It worked with SIRI, RIM, and FAS (day of WFC announcement), but also failed miserably with FAZ a week later and GE... guess you can't win 'em all.



Well my REIT sure as hell isn't doing anything this year lol. I'm down -7.5% this year


Posted by slingshot on Apr-27-2009 23:04:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
Actually, most of the REITs and other income trusts and dividend funds have been doing incredibly well. Likely because shares were beaten up so badly but they managed to keep their dividends. But at my age I'm not going to be satisfied with a lame-o 15-20% annual return. That's retirement income, not growth. If I can swing just 5% per week, I'll be laughing.


Yea, there are a few income trusts that have remained pretty stable over the last little while and give out great yields if that's your sort of thing. BPF-UN.TO and CGX-UN.TO come to mind. I personally think that being this young and investing in low-beta, high yield equities is preeeeeeeetty boring and a waste of time. You don't learn all that much, and you're not making trades on an active basis. At this young an age, education is paramount and the only way to get that is to be an active player in the market....taking risks and going outside of your comfort zone (albeit as calculated as possible).

My $0.02


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-28-2009 01:34:

quote:
Originally posted by slingshot
I personally think that being this young and investing in low-beta, high yield equities is preeeeeeeetty boring and a waste of time.

I've got about 1/3 in that type of stuff, want to guarantee at least a little bit of a retirement fund in case I blow everything else. But it's dull for sure. I'm waiting for just one more dive before I pull everything out of the old mutual funds (from back when I opened the RSP but wasn't interested in active trading - bah, useless).

I wouldn't say it's a waste of time, since it isn't really occupying any time, but the chance of retiring by 30 with just those is effectively zero.


Posted by simms327 on Apr-28-2009 01:50:

any thoughts on gold? I'm a believer of massive inflation in the future due to all the new money entering the system, but when?

I made some money on HBU on the tsx

also have been enjoying YLO.un with a 20% avg yield.


Posted by Skipper on Apr-28-2009 14:00:

quote:
Originally posted by simms327


also have been enjoying YLO.un with a 20% avg yield.


Do you really think that's sustainable though?


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-28-2009 22:06:

quote:
Originally posted by Skipper
Do you really think that's sustainable though?

Why not? It's just a dividend, been steady for at least 4 months despite the drop. P/E is good.

That is the one nice thing about dividend funds - doesn't matter how much the share price gets beat up, your earnings are always based on the original purchase price. As long as the dividend doesn't get cut, that is - but that's rare. And let's say they do cut it to say, 0.07 instead of 0.10, who cares? That's still a 14% return which is better than any mutual fund.

If this is about the whole income trust taxation thing, traders are far too paranoid about that.


Posted by Naruepol on Apr-28-2009 22:08:

Also remember to open a tfsa account with your broker. I opened mine in the first week of Janurary,deposited the max of $5,000 and double my initial deposit.

TFSAs are the best thing government has done in a long time, it wont be until they screw it up again.

And if you lose money in your tfsa than your fucked.


Posted by Skipper on Apr-28-2009 22:17:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
Why not? It's just a dividend, been steady for at least 4 months despite the drop. P/E is good.

That is the one nice thing about dividend funds - doesn't matter how much the share price gets beat up, your earnings are always based on the original purchase price. As long as the dividend doesn't get cut, that is - but that's rare. And let's say they do cut it to say, 0.07 instead of 0.10, who cares? That's still a 14% return which is better than any mutual fund.

If this is about the whole income trust taxation thing, traders are far too paranoid about that.


Companies will go a long way to prop up a dividend, what I'm asking is if it's being supported by actual, sustainable operating cash flow.

There are a lot of great yields out there, but I would argue a lot of them are prime picks for a cut in the next 9 - 12 months.


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-28-2009 22:23:

quote:
Originally posted by Skipper
Companies will go a long way to prop up a dividend, what I'm asking is if it's being supported by actual, sustainable operating cash flow.

And the answer is... yes. They still have over $100M in net income, unless I read their statement wrong.

Can you give a specific example of one of these prime picks for dividend cuts? I'm just curious...


Posted by Skipper on Apr-28-2009 23:23:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
And the answer is... yes. They still have over $100M in net income, unless I read their statement wrong.

Can you give a specific example of one of these prime picks for dividend cuts? I'm just curious...


Net income is not a measure of cash by any stretch of the imagination.

Distributable cash is a non-GAAP measure but is generally looked at by the street to determine how sustainable a divvie is. Doing sensitivities around the distributable cash figure will give you a better sense of what the chances are for a cut. But generally if the stock price is low enough to give you a yield of 15+%, the market has already priced in the cut as if it's a sure thing.

On top of that, when the yield is over 15% a company's cost of capital goes through the roof and you can pretty much bet that they won't be raising equity with a yield that high - and if they're tapped out on their debt then they're screwed if they need money. No one comes to the market for money when it costs 15%.


Posted by slingshot on Apr-29-2009 00:01:

quote:
Originally posted by Skipper
Net income is not a measure of cash by any stretch of the imagination.

Distributable cash is a non-GAAP measure but is generally looked at by the street to determine how sustainable a divvie is. Doing sensitivities around the distributable cash figure will give you a better sense of what the chances are for a cut. But generally if the stock price is low enough to give you a yield of 15+%, the market has already priced in the cut as if it's a sure thing.

On top of that, when the yield is over 15% a company's cost of capital goes through the roof and you can pretty much bet that they won't be raising equity with a yield that high - and if they're tapped out on their debt then they're screwed if they need money. No one comes to the market for money when it costs 15%.


Not necessarily, it depends on how the trust decides the metrics to which their distributions are based. It's going to vary between industries. Boston Pizza for example distributes based on a percentage of sales so that cash flow could be easily predicted by modeling sssg as well as new restaurant openings. Issuing new units in this case wouldn't necessarily be a problem due to what their distribution is tied to. With sound expansion plans it may actually be relatively easy because any increase in overall sales would benefit the distribution.

In something like Yellow Pages, it seems as if they distribute based on what's leftover so the state of their distribution is pretty much tied to the state of their future cash flow projections. In this case rather bleak given the demise of essentially anything in print form.


Posted by rabbitjoker on Apr-29-2009 00:12:

quote:
Originally posted by slingshot
In this case rather bleak given the demise of essentially anything in print form.


YP has significant online assets.


Posted by Skipper on Apr-29-2009 00:32:

quote:
Originally posted by slingshot
Not necessarily, it depends on how the trust decides the metrics to which their distributions are based. It's going to vary between industries. Boston Pizza for example distributes based on a percentage of sales so that cash flow could be easily predicted by modeling sssg as well as new restaurant openings. Issuing new units in this case wouldn't necessarily be a problem due to what their distribution is tied to. With sound expansion plans it may actually be relatively easy because any increase in overall sales would benefit the distribution.

In something like Yellow Pages, it seems as if they distribute based on what's leftover so the state of their distribution is pretty much tied to the state of their future cash flow projections. In this case rather bleak given the demise of essentially anything in print form.


I'm not entirely familiar with Boston Pizza but isn't the distribution 11.5 cents/month? How often does that fluctuate with same store sales?

I guess in terms of raising money, regardless of whether the money increases the sales which supports or increases the distribution, you're still paying 15%. Issuing equity with this kind of yield is expensive, it's like a 15% interest rate on a bank line - and when rates are where they are, it hurts to pay 15% for any form of capital.


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-29-2009 02:30:

quote:
Originally posted by Skipper
But generally if the stock price is low enough to give you a yield of 15+%, the market has already priced in the cut as if it's a sure thing.

Typical. Not even a nod to the fundamentals or the company itself, just a bunch of technical ifs and buts.

Good, I hope the jittery day-traders watching streaming index feeds ignore these equities. It means less wild price fluctuations for conservative investors looking for safe returns (i.e. retirement income).


Posted by exstasie on Apr-29-2009 12:34:

I'm pretty new to all of this Trading Stuff...

But can someone just give me a better explanation of VTSO?

Thanks!


Posted by Skipper on Apr-29-2009 12:39:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
Typical. Not even a nod to the fundamentals or the company itself, just a bunch of technical ifs and buts.


Of course its a nod to the fundamentals. People are selling off the stock because they've analyzed the macro picture and the fundamentals and do not believe the dividend can be sustained. It comes back to the distributable cash - if the dividend is more than operating cash flow (after maintenance capex spending and changes in working capital), the divvie is likely being debt funded or supported by non-sustainable forms of cash flow, which cannot continue forever.

The stock sells off before the cut (thus pushing the yield up) because no one wants to get caught owning it when the cut is eventually announced and the stock sells off further.


Posted by Nrg2Nfinit on Apr-29-2009 22:02:

just dumped some tfsa money into rim.. a good stock thats slightly volatile and liquid. Im hoping it can come up to 90 or 100 (wishful thinking).


Usually it defy's the market when the markets down. Rogers' low q1 and RIM hiring during a mobile slump sent rim down today.


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-29-2009 23:08:

My winnars for today: PCX, DXO, HOU, made 5-10% on all of those. These babies have been super reliable over the past month; every time they go down by more than about 10% they bounce back up.

Also picked up GMR the other day when I saw it bottom out at 8.41. It didn't do shit today but AH it's suddenly up to 9.61! No idea what happened, and I know AH doesn't mean dick, but I hope it holds, because that's a tidy 14% on a 2-day trade.

So far my strategy's just been to buy whatever got seriously beaten up at the end of the day (obviously not arbitrarily - looking for ones with high market cap that dropped for silly reasons or no reason at all), and set a 3-5% stop or just keep a close eye on it. Cut and run at a 5-10% profit depending on momentum.

I don't know if this would work for everyone, but it's been working very well for me, even doing it over and over again for the same stocks. I'm still new, and maybe I've just been lucky, but I don't understand why people say that most active traders lose money; they must be referring to folks who buy on rallies and hold on despite losses, and then start trying to pump them up on Yahoo/Google as if that could possibly have any effect. Sunk costs fallacy, getting hung up on the "recovering losses" notion, etc.

Aaaanyhoo, to extasie:

I think VTSO is the technical term for what I just call a trailing stop (even though I suppose that's incorrect because there are several kinds of trailing stops). You set a percent limit, say 10%, and every time the share price goes up, the actual "stop" price is updated to be 10% of the new share price, but if the share price goes down, nothing happens. It's called "virtual" because it's not a real stop order, it's more like several successive stop orders.

A typical scenario would be:
- Buy XYZ for $10 and set a 10% trailing stop.
- If XYZ drops below $9 on the first day, it gets sold.
- If XYZ closes at $12, your new stop price is $10.80 on the next day. If it goes below $10.80 it gets sold.
- If XYZ drops to $11, your stop is not changed. It is still at $10.80.
- XYZ drops to $10.50 the day after that. Your trailing stop gets executed at $10.80. You've made an 8% profit without having to really watch it or do any work.

Make sense? It's basically a lazy way of locking in profits, if you're confident that the price will go up but are worried about volatility.


Posted by exstasie on Apr-30-2009 00:42:

Thanks Digit.

I was reading up on it and was a little confused, but that explains it a bit.
The only part i'm still confused is when i'm placing an order. From what i've read, and what you stated, I put in a % as my limit, but on my Trading Account, it never gave me that option. Only a Stop Limit $..unless it assumes that what ever you put in the Stop Limit $ is actually the %.

I found this which also helps explain it and makes sense.



And yeah, I funded my account yesterday to buy some HOU this morning, but for some reason my account didn't get funded! ARGHHHHH


PS. What's everyone's thoughts on ETFs? I got some ETFs in my portfolio mainly for longterm growth and dividend payout...


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-30-2009 01:09:

quote:
Originally posted by exstasie
The only part i'm still confused is when i'm placing an order. From what i've read, and what you stated, I put in a % as my limit, but on my Trading Account, it never gave me that option. Only a Stop Limit $..unless it assumes that what ever you put in the Stop Limit $ is actually the %.

Is it TD WebBroker? Because they don't have trailing stops, just plain vanilla stops. That was my complaint about them earlier in the thread. Some other brokerages may also consider that an "advanced" or "active trader" type feature. I don't know, I guess it's a little trickier to implement, system-wise.

quote:
And yeah, I funded my account yesterday to buy some HOU this morning, but for some reason my account didn't get funded! ARGHHHHH

I wouldn't worry, you missed the boat anyway if you were going to buy this morning. It opened high today but didn't go up very much. I guess it's possible it might open higher tomorrow, but Monday was the day to buy (5.25). Today was the day to sell.

quote:
What's everyone's thoughts on ETFs? I got some ETFs in my portfolio mainly for longterm growth and dividend payout...

Which ETFs pay dividends? I know there are a few, but I'm not used to seeing that.

Anyway, I love 'em - HOU is an ETF, DXO is an ETN, I know some people who bought the PowerShares water ETF as a medium-term investment and made a bundle, and FAS/FAZ are great if you can keep your wits about you or are willing to play with options - although they seem to be running out of steam lately. Plus, Powershares has a wind power ETF called PWND, and you just can't get more l33t than that.

Just make sure you understand that leveraged (2X or 3X) ETFs do generally shrink over time, so you probably don't want to hold them as "investments" - they are trading tools. And make sure you understand what the ETFs are actually tracking. Crude oil ETFs for example do not track the spot price, they track futures and/or moving averages. I see a lot of confusion over that type of thing.



...Aaaand GMR is back down again in AH. Le suck.


Posted by exstasie on Apr-30-2009 01:33:

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
Is it TD WebBroker? Because they don't have trailing stops, just plain vanilla stops. That was my complaint about them earlier in the thread. Some other brokerages may also consider that an "advanced" or "active trader" type feature. I don't know, I guess it's a little trickier to implement, system-wise.


I use TradeFreedom (A Scotiabank owned Company). It's pretty much identical to eTrade (well, iTrade now or whatever its called). They do have VTSO, however I was reading on their site that you don't put in % but the $ value. so if its $10..instead of 10% you put in $1.00.

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
I wouldn't worry, you missed the boat anyway if you were going to buy this morning. It opened high today but didn't go up very much. I guess it's possible it might open higher tomorrow, but Monday was the day to buy (5.25). Today was the day to sell.


Yeah, I know lol. It's just the perception that I COULD have bought in when it was 5.5% cheaper..you know lol.

At least i'm not one of those who had it when it was valued at $240 in July..you know there are a few of them out there!
quote:

[FONT=Tahoma][COLOR=#99CCEE]Which ETFs pay dividends? I know there are a few, but I'm not used to seeing that.

Anyway, I love 'em - HOU is an ETF, DXO is an ETN, I know some people who bought the PowerShares water ETF as a medium-term investment and made a bundle, and FAS/FAZ are great if you can keep your wits about you or are willing to play with options - although they seem to be running out of steam lately. Plus, Powershares has a wind power ETF called PWND, and you just can't get more l33t than that.

Just make sure you understand that leveraged (2X or 3X) ETFs do generally shrink over time, so you probably don't want to hold them as "investments" - they are trading tools. And make sure you understand what the ETFs are actually tracking. Crude oil ETFs for example do not track the spot price, they track futures and/or moving averages. I see a lot of confusion over that type of thing.


Most of the iShare ETFs pay dividends. I have a REIT ETF with iShares that pays decent dividends.

Did not know that about the crude Oil ETF. Will have to make sure I research what the are actually tracking! Thanks!


Posted by DigiNut on Apr-30-2009 02:19:

quote:
Originally posted by exstasie
Yeah, I know lol. It's just the perception that I COULD have bought in when it was 5.5% cheaper..you know lol.

At least i'm not one of those who had it when it was valued at $240 in July..you know there are a few of them out there!

I missed the entire month of March due to some paperwork fuck-up. All my picks were up 50-100% by the time things were settled. I doubt we'll see that kind of rally again for a looong time. But in retrospect, I suppose that was precisely the shake-up I needed to learn how to trade; if I'd bought and held through March, I'd probably have gotten complacent and sat around hemming and hawing and being afraid to sell in April while it was all evaporating.

I can't imagine that there are still people holding onto a $5 stock from a price of $240, but a lot of people did lose a lot of money. I wouldn't feel right being too specific, but several managed RIFs were throwing money into hedge and derivative funds, which were later busted up by the SEC, and now people who retired several years ago have lost half of their retirement income. Not cool at all, and highlights the importance of diverse investments. So these people reached the same conclusion I did: If you want it done right, you have to do it yourself.


quote:
Most of the iShare ETFs pay dividends. I have a REIT ETF with iShares that pays decent dividends.

Figures are pretty reminiscent of mutual funds. Relatively safe, and boring.


Posted by dEsidEL on Apr-30-2009 04:07:


don't forget to file your taxes everyone if you haven't already. April 30th is the deadline (if you owe).


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