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quote:

Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit honestly, you gotta get some leverage on that shit. can't you make some option plays on these moves? you are talking about less than 1% here. Try the thursday 10:30am natural gas report. that's where the game is at find a nice leveraged vehicle, i am usually short, and boom you're solid http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=T...UUbDaMMqLrQHSUA

a break above 4.44 and we're looking at testing 4.88...short at 4.88?

quote:

Originally posted by Lagrangian a break above 4.44 and we're looking at testing 4.88...short at 4.88?

you can't run the techincals off the etf. The commodity itself yes, but not the etf (As it only tracks via NAV).

i need 4.86 acb on this puppy for break even. I will hold till 10$.

edit: this is an inverse etf so i play this long, but it mimics 200% of the daily inverse return of nymex natural gas

*see nymex natural gas front month link below

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html

natural gas goes below 3$ i'm laughing


if it decides to run up to 4$, i'm crying lol

quote:

Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit you can't run the techincals off the etf. The commodity itself yes, but not the etf (As it only tracks via NAV). i need 4.86 acb on this puppy for break even. I will hold till 10$. edit: this is an inverse etf so i play this long, but it mimics 200% of the daily inverse return of nymex natural gas *see nymex natural gas front month link below http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ene...atural-gas.html natural gas goes below 3$ i'm laughing if it decides to run up to 4$, i'm crying lol

my peers are screaming 150...wisdom of crowds and all that jazz...i'll wait and see. no biggie.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GBPJPY=X

quote:

Originally posted by Lagrangian my peers are screaming 150...wisdom of crowds and all that jazz...i'll wait and see. no biggie. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GBPJPY=X

1.50 gas?

No way (or i should say i doubt it).. there has been too much coal to gas demand switching occurring, even though we are at record supply, sudden demand increases the past 2 years have been a thorn in the shorsellers side. MAybe maybe if we have a super mild summer and an upcomming warm winter then yes.

I keep my eye out on the curve, if we do break into the 2s (Which i see is likely) i will try to ride down to teh 1s

last years drop to sub 2 was because of our record warm winter. Anyone that tried to short into the 1s got assraped though as the coal switch definitely caught Managed money short sellers by surprise

look at the jump here:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...F01%2F2012#jump

a good gauge when dealing with gas is to watch the open interest positions. If money managers are heading short you can guarantee prices will drop. If they are short too many positions for too long though, watch out, fast recoil short covers can rip the shirt off your back quicker than you can hit the buyback button. Next thing you know you're sleeping in your truck.

It's all the fun in the game though .

Here's a chart that i plotted a while back (2011) which shows the trending relationship between COT and price



while the r-squared is nothing to brag home about, one cannot deny that managed money positioning doesn't have a strong impact on price. reactive or proactive is hard to gauge though.

lol i thoguht you were takling about 1.50 gas.. not 150 gbpjpy

Unleash the currency wars! It's a central banker's market.

Can you guys post charts comparing USD JPY EUR AUD INR GBP over 3 years? OR recommend a website that can, for free?

for technicals i like to use barchart.com

heres what winston is talking about, i've added your standard 20,2 bollingers

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=^GBPJPY&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=BBANDS%2820%2C2%2C10066431%2C3227936511%29&chartindicator_1_code=BBANDS&chartindicator_1_param_0=20&chartindicator_1_param_1=2&chartindicator_1_param_2=10066431&chartindicator_1_param_3=3227936511&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

you can easily modify the parameters here and put other overlays. This isn't interactive as in a live chart though.

if you want to run techinicals on something interactive i suggest you use this site:

http://www.investing.com/currencies...-advanced-chart

i use this with natural gas, there is a couple of seconds delay to realtime. Of course, if you are trading this shit, your brokerage should have you setup with something that is realtime. I suggest using interactive brokers if you are going to go with futures and options. With forex, i'm not sure how their comissions are.

Winston, when you guys trade forex, how are the comissions? Is it percentage based? or a flat fee per trade, lets say 9.99 or something per buy, 9.99 per sell?

quote:

Originally posted by Lagrangian Unleash the currency wars! It's a central banker's market.

not that i'm an expert in currency or anything, but i would say it has more to do with the fact that the JPY is weakening than the Pound strenghtening. You can run it against USD or CAD and see the same thing.

Actually, against the USD, the GBP has trended lower over the past month or so. I'm sure that Carney's goal will be to try and maintain the UK inflation rate instead of easing. You compare their 2.7% to canada's 0.8% and you think that maybe canadians need a first round of easing lol.

And then you think again why banks are so quick to want to jump the mortgage rates. How can you tighten lending policy when your inflation rate is shit. CAD big banks work in collusion as crooks. Again i don't know much about currency/ inflation but i know enough that when no one is spending money, you don't go ahead and make it harder to borrow.

Is there any point in the Yuan? When did China become the center of the monetary universe?

if you are talking about currency pegging, that isn't happening anymore.

The yuan used to be pegged to the USD but since the summer of 2010 the yuan has been gaining strength.


they kept their currency low to promote exports. IF you export more than you import and deal with foreign currency, you run into issues trying to convert your currency back as you have a surprlus of foreign currency and a lack of your own currency.

The result is that the chinese central bank essentially prints money to keep its currency low, and therefore continue to promote its high export to import ration (ie develope)


heres a video that explains it better than i can


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-9iY1OgbDE

quote:

Originally posted by billymadision Is there any point in the Yuan? When did China become the center of the monetary universe?

when you allowed black men to run the country

when you decided you were too good to work the fields and you allowed foreigners to do all the hard work

when you began spreading tyranny in the name of democracy.

by running great deficits without appropiate spending cuts

simple math?

quote:

Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit if you are talking about currency pegging, that isn't happening anymore. The yuan used to be pegged to the USD but since the summer of 2010 the yuan has been gaining strength. they kept their currency low to promote exports. IF you export more than you import and deal with foreign currency, you run into issues trying to convert your currency back as you have a surprlus of foreign currency and a lack of your own currency. The result is that the chinese central bank essentially prints money to keep its currency low, and therefore continue to promote its high export to import ration (ie develope) heres a video that explains it better than i can http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-9iY1OgbDE

correct, on a more serious note...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ing-nation.html

The yuan is monopoly money, but i get a lot of it.

No rest for the wicked. It was a bloodbath for many, I pulled out right before NYC opened.

http://www.businessinsider.com/yen-...terprted-2013-2

Happy Trading

Last year I predicted that the U.K economy would crash; It's scarier than I thought, but Carney's appointment at BoE is sure to bring youthful edge in decision making at the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street. I thought highly of King, but change is right.

The U.K will most likely enter a recession (triple dip)--I see absolutely no way out of this with inflation at these levels and purchasing power falling immensely, not to mention that dreaded bond rating downgrade looming.

quote:

Most obviously, the U.K.�s �recovery� remains an achingly gradual affair. The fourth quarter�s 0.1% contraction in GDP was the fifth quarterly slip recorded since the economy supposedly clawed back to post-crisis growth in late 2009�later than its peers. For the moment, analysts think the U.K. will avoid a lethal triple dip, but it will probably be the usual knife-edge escape rather than a convincing upward bound. Then there�s that triple-A credit rating. For so long, this was the U.K.�s comfort blanket, one it kept while all about it were losing theirs. However, proper deficit reduction has proven a longer, harder road than the one anticipated�which was long and hard enough. Investors are now pretty sure the U.K.�s rating is toast; it�s just a question of when it pops up. What about monetary policy? Well, judged by its inflation mandate alone, it�s been a dismal failure, with consumer prices rising ahead of the Bank of England�s 2% target every month since the end of 2009. The Bank has just modestly upped its inflation forecast, so improvement remains elusive to put it mildly.

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2013/02...rely-homegrown/

I've studied the charts extensively & it seems the � will fall to 1.33 against the $. We're at 1.55 levels...It's huge!

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=410175

Eurozone Seen Shrinking.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...al-q4-gdps-dump

as a strategy to become wealthy, isn't buying stocks without taking a controlling interest (or having significant influence on the management) ineffective, mostly serving as a hedge against inflation? i'm curious was to the Lagrangian and Nrg2Nfinit have to say.

Read : http://www.bankers-anonymous.com/bl...untaught/#_ftn2

Yesterday Warren Buffett's Betkshire Hathaway bought Heinz, the stock rallied almost 20%. I bet most of this money was financed, and with rates this low, I don't see why not.

It's all about the relative value of current cash-flow pegged with interest rates.

Thanks, but im familiar with the topic you linked. Correct me if im wrong, but are implying that a good strategy is to borrow at a low interest rate and pay off the loan with the target company, which you control? But how many people can do that?

Paid gradually and dependent on a benchmark rate of mutual agreement, we trade cash-flows.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/swaption.asp

In essence, people like Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg are the most vulnerable if their company goes under turmoil (along with COO's and the board of directors); those who create the vehicle for such investments, the crew at J.P Morgan & Goldman Sachs always profit; they can straddle/strangle their options whichever way your stock goes...look into Herbalife.

In essence, being mgmt is not always optimal unless you're well protected against headwinds (again, options) on the stock market.

To me, investing is all about diversification and risk mitigation. make the high risk plays but secure your self with some sort of option strategy as insurance. know when to stop out; use taxation to your benefits (captial gains capital losses).

if you are going to go ahead and leverage your plays (ie borrow to play), make sure you have a exit strategy and keep an eye on your margin so you don't get margin calls (i've never gotten a margin call but i've been blue in the face from almost exausting it).

if you are making major liquidity stock plays, you can easily avoid a margin situation by buying in the money options. Theta is very low (if there is any; this is the extra premium you pay on options)


I personally only borrow for real tangible assets (real estate etc), not counting short selling of stocks. Again, if you are going to borrow for leverage, make sure it is secure and have an exist strategy.

That's just me though and i'm by no means a big fish lol.

The analyst estimates game:

great movie, karim. hope you're well...

planning to long kiwi yen pair (from dip), we're looking at 79.20 right now SPOT fair price.. target around 86-87 which were 2007 highs.

fundamentally the NZ govt has confirmed its strong stance in currency appreciation. While the JPY will meticulously work to devalue their currency and push the NIKKEI higher.

I am playing the GBP/JPY on shorter time frames; both pairs seem extremely correlated with the kiwi yen being the prettiest girl on the pageant.

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