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-- World Cup 2026
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Spain without a single goal in the first half against Cape Verde. Looool. Go Cape Verde!

Not all heroes wear capes. Some are the Cape themselves

*popcorn consumption intensifies*

Practically the whole game played in Cape Verde's half of the pitch and Spain still couldn't get it in. Hahaha. Good job, Cape Verde.

Haha, Jesus Christ



We kind of see Cape Verde as a sibling here, so there were fireworks and everything. Anyway, I'm updating my model, and I'm running the stats in the background so let's see what will change once Excel churns all the percentages... either way, I don't think there was a way anyone could've predicted this. Speaking of rebelling against the numbers:

quote:

Originally posted by Lira 5 favourites I don't think will make it: Spain: I don't make the rules. The top favourite by betting houses and FIFA Rankings has never won a World Cup somehow, except for Spain in 2010. So they're good, but apparently one can be too good, and they've already pulled it off once. Twice? That's a K-Pop group.

Jokes aside, kind of called it. I've been betting against the maths gods regarding Spain because, as of now, they're too much of a favourite - often a distortion.

On to Belgium and Egypt.

Dang, Egypt's guys played their hearts out. Well-fought.

All right, I've recalibrated my model and tables are acting up here. Basically, it remains an ELO-based that went through dozens of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, now taking into account both goals scored and goals allowed in the last 3 year. Where my model diverges from the more popular ones is due to the fact it's mostly team oriented rather than player oriented, simply because I don't have that much free time on my hands.

Anyway, here's how my model differs from the popular ones:

• Spain: Models like Opta have an absolute corporate crush on Spain (16.1%), treating them as undisputed tournament favorites based on endless passing matrices and individual starlets like Lamine Yamal. My model stripped away the romanticism because, sure, they've won things, but this is still the squad that has only won three WC games since 2010. Without the individual hype armor, they drop to a human 9.6% according to my model.
  
• La France: Most models view Les Bleus as an indestructible comic-book ensemble. My model looks at their actual tactical chassis, sees the structural fractures when those stars aren't bailed out by individual genius, and brutally slashes them down to 7.2%.
  
• Colombia: Most systems ignore them as contenders, practically ignored them, but my model looks at their terrifying systemic momentum and hands them a massive 6.0% chance to win the whole bloody thing. They farmed a whole lot of aura during the qualifiers, apparently.
  
• Argentina: Much to my chagrin, my model looks at Scaloni's terrifyingly rigid, brutal collective unit and crowns them my definitive tournament favorites at 14.1%, way higher than Spain. I believe this is a glitch, but I might be biased.
  
• Brazil: My model looks is a bit less sanguine than most predictions as it looks at our recent grim realities (dragging ourselves through a miserable 5th-place finish in CONMEBOL qualifying and that dreary 1-1 group stage draw against Morocco) and docks us to a harsh 5.2%. Fair.
  
• The Netherlands: The Dutch are a nation perpetually trapped in a geometric crisis of underachievement. My model agrees and gives them a 3.3% shot at glory, nearly as much as the Opta Supercomputer. I refuse to accept this reality.
  
• South Korea: By evaluating their structured automation and collective spatial discipline, they get a massive 81.0% chance to reach the Round of 32 out of Group A. They might lack the ultimate raw horsepower to win the final trophy (0.8%), but as a system, the machine works beautifully. And maybe, just maybe, this will be 2002 all over again.

Damn that was a smooth first goal for France. Good on Senegal for holding them back so long.

Mbapp� is deadly.

Every goal in that game was a banger. Don't underrate the pass from Olise for the first goal.

France looked a bit turgid at Euro 2024, with a few ageing stars and a very conservative brand of defence-first football, but there has been a fresh injection of attacking blood in their line up since then, with the young PSG stars and Michael Olise all stepping up to world class level in the last couple of years. Obviously it doesn't take a genius to predict that the team which reached the last two finals are the favourites, but it's hard to overstate just how scary their squad is.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Messi is surely too old to drag Argentina deep into another tournament these days

I may need to revisit this statement.

I'll be at the England-Croatia game today. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Got tickets at half price through my wife's work.

�s armas! �s armas! Bora, Portugal!

quote:

Originally posted by Vector A I'll be at the England-Croatia game today. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

You're bound to have the best of times. Our hearts are bound to have the worst of times

Tell us everything later. The atmosphere of a World Cup match at the stadium is simply surreal, I hope you enjoy every second of it

(For the record, my model predicts a slight edge for England... which means it will likely be a draw)

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Portugal have probably the best squad after those two, although they're critically hampered by the presence of a carved wooden idol of Cristiano Ronaldo up front.

Currently no plans to revisit this statement.

Croatia is always a hard game for England. They've beaten us in a few big games down the years. I do think this Croatia side isn't quite as strong as previous tournaments. They look very solid in defence but not quite so scary up front. I fully expect a nerve-wracking game for England with not too many goals.

Hell of a header from Kane.

Shot of the (very loud) "English section":

See? Barely any goals at all.

This was my first World Cup game in person and it didn't disappoint. I expected the England fans to bring the noise but their energy still impressed me. More or less the entire third of the stadium where I was sitting was covered in England flags.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J See? Barely any goals at all.

Lol. Definitely nerve-wracking at times, though! Both the keepers got a workout.

The trouble is, I'm so traumatised by years of watching England freeze up as nervous wrecks in tournaments that I can't adjust to the new reality that we're pretty good these days. Still, that was a breath of fresh air after watching the side play so stiffly at Euro 2024, which was a return to the bad old days. That's our toughest group game won, so hopefully the next two games will be more relaxing.

Gutted I didn't stay up to watch but we had an engagement this morning and I didn't want to risk showing up half cut. Sounds like it was a solid performance to open against a good team. We enjoyed the highlights. Look forward to being in England for the knockout stages. As it stands, England would play Portugal in the round of 32

It just occurred to me that this is a suitable thread for something slightly off-topic: Does anyone else have a football kit collection, or just "more than a couple of jerseys" in their wardrobe? I started buying some a decade ago and, except for the scotch-brite yellow Sele��o jersey, which I kept replacing until I found a design I truly liked, I never really gave any away. As of today, the tally is:

• Brazil (yellow, blue, black) x3
  
• Italy (the Reinaissance ones) x2
  
• Korea (a Pinkish one an ordinary red devils crimson one) x2
  
• US x1
  
• England (a red one, naturally) x1
  
• The Netherlands x1
  
• Ukraine x1
  
• Russia (the burgundy 2016 one) x1
  
• Germany (the 1990 one) x1

I just had a look as I used to have a few. All that's left is probably the weirdest and most specific pair of shirts imaginable:the classic Barcelona 08/09 away kit which has never been worn and looks like it's quite valuable now, and the, uh... Besiktas 09/10 away kit.

I'd like to change my prediction from "near certain" to "nigh-on inevitable", please

Edit: Ouch, I hope Kone is okay. I assume they're not showing the replay because it's as gruesome as it looked

Edit 2: You know what? Canada might actually top their group if they can hold their nerve against Switzerland.

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I just had a look as I used to have a few. All that's left is probably the weirdest and most specific pair of shirts imaginable:the classic Barcelona 08/09 away kit which has never been worn and looks like it's quite valuable now, and the, uh... Besiktas 09/10 away kit.

That's a peculiar combo, as I'd have figured you'd have an England jersey or one from local clubs too Any history behind these ones?

6-0 Canada win. Hell, that's great even for a hockey game!

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I don't see any reason why it would be a near-certainty that Canada will beat Qatar.

lol

quote:

Originally posted by Sykonee 6-0 Canada win. Hell, that's great even for a hockey game!

It only cost them one floppy shin.

Well, that's probably the wrongest I've ever been on TA about anything. Good thing I didn't place that bet.

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