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-- the Iraki war is inevitable...
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Posted by Izzy on Feb-18-2003 04:59:

vesa, i like you conspiracy theory for 2 reasons
1) its optimistic. it has a happy ending where the 'good' is the motivating drive.
2) it gives the bush and blair the benifet of the doubt. i honestly belive that they know more then me about this issue and are at hand to make a wise desicion than i. although i cant 100% ever trust them i will gladly give them the benifet of the doubt.

good thinking... hopefully its true... hopefully....


Posted by DrUg_Tit0 on Feb-18-2003 09:29:

Heh, only one problem with the story. While I agree that the part after invasion of Iraq, I don't quite agree with the first part, and here's why. Bush had support from most nations and people of the world to hunt down and kill terrorists. He does not have any of this support for invading Iraq. Therefore if what you say is true, he'd be much better off just telling the truth.


Posted by Az on Feb-18-2003 15:34:

quote:
Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0
Heh, only one problem with the story. While I agree that the part after invasion of Iraq, I don't quite agree with the first part, and here's why. Bush had support from most nations and people of the world to hunt down and kill terrorists. He does not have any of this support for invading Iraq. Therefore if what you say is true, he'd be much better off just telling the truth.

you couldn't actually tell the truth, as Saddam would kill the Baath members involved......
fuck I'm arguing for it now


Posted by rupert on Feb-19-2003 09:21:

quote:
"you ought never to suffer your designs to be crossed in order to avoid war, since war is not so to be avoided, but is only deferred to your disadvantage."


Machievelli would never recommend a war on Iraq were he alive.

Never. Machievelli belived that leaders should make decisions based on risk assessment not risk aversion.

If avoiding war empowers your enemies at your expense then you should attack to deny your enemy the advantage, because it is riskier not to attack a threat now because this allows it to become a bigger threat later on.

He believed that a decision should be made on the basis of looking at what the potential downside of every option is and then choosing the option that if things go bad will affect you the least.

Now in the Iraq scenario, not attacking Iraq has no real negative consequences for the USA, Iraq is not a threat to its neighbours let alone the USA, whereas attacking Iraq has a whole range of inevitable bad consequences.

Machievelli would way up the costs and the downsides. In this case alienating the arabs and the europeans is far worse than the upside of appeasing Israel and the oil lobby.


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 14:07:

quote:
Originally posted by DJ_Skaya
Evidence, please? The rule in this country is "innocent until proven guilty."



That "rule" only applies to U.S. citizens.


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 14:11:

quote:
Originally posted by Az
On the contrary, I'd LOVE to see some evidence, but when it comes down to it, there are far more pressing matters to be looked at, like north korea for example. Hmmmm Saddam Hussein with no Nuclear Weapons, no way of getting them, and no way of delivering them, or North Korea, who we know have the capability to build at least 6 nuclear weapons (and all the recent intelligence is saying that they are building them),and are commiting far more Human Rights violations than Iraq......
so where should the priorities lay?
Would America give a shit if Iraq didn't have any Oil? would they fuck....
there's 4 cents
keep saving, you'll be able to buy a clue then Guetag



I agree to an extent....i beleive both N. Korea and iraq need to come down....your right though Korea should be first....but we found out about the Korean missiles being able to reach our wst coast long after we started with Iraq....

And even if we DID go for Korea first...your statements would be reversed...you would start saying why Korea..what have they done...so not sure of your point...no matter what , you dont want America to respond to what they feel is a threat to our national security...whether it be Korea or Iraq.


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 14:23:

quote:
Originally posted by Az


Meanwhile we actually KNOW North Korea are transporting enough Nuclear Rods to create at least 6 Nuclear weapons, and are posing a very real threat to the world.
now you tell me which is more the more important situation.....



Are you saying you WOULD support an American/British war on North Korea?...or when that time comes will you follow the leaders of all the pacifist floating around in their self righteaous ether proclaiming North korea should be left alone?


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 14:26:

quote:
Originally posted by Az

I have absolutely no doubt that Tony Blair has lied to the British Population on a number of occasions, he's a politician, it's what they do. I'll be voting Liberal Democrat next time, a party that won't sell the British people up the river......



Hussein is also a politician....why do you feel he doesnt lied about the weapons hidden?....or does Hussein always tell the truth


Posted by Az on Feb-19-2003 14:35:

quote:
Originally posted by tiesto14
I agree to an extent....i beleive both N. Korea and iraq need to come down....your right though Korea should be first....but we found out about the Korean missiles being able to reach our wst coast long after we started with Iraq....

And even if we DID go for Korea first...your statements would be reversed...you would start saying why Korea..what have they done...so not sure of your point...no matter what , you dont want America to respond to what they feel is a threat to our national security...whether it be Korea or Iraq.

how would they be reversed? I see North Korea as a threat, Iraq are nobodies in comparison.
I wouldn't be saying why korea, as I've stated why there should be military action against Korea
thats one of the stupidest things I've ever read....
quote:
Are you saying you WOULD support an American/British war on North Korea?...or when that time comes will you follow the leaders of all the pacifist floating around in their self righteaous ether proclaiming North korea should be left alone?

yes, and I've said that Korea is a far more pressing situation, and I'm pretty sure anyone with a clue agrees with me.....
I said there should be action of Korea, so why would I change my mind
yet again you're writing shit......
quote:
Hussein is also a politician....why do you feel he doesnt lied about the weapons hidden?....or does Hussein always tell the truth

thats twisting what I've said to ridiculous proportions, and I thought you had more sense than that, although I was obviously wrong.
Until you can actually show me (and the rest of the world), evidence that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction, that he's planning to use them etc... he's not lying and we are?
it's called Innocent until Proven guilty, and I'm not sure about the states, but in the UK it's a pretty big thing, or at least it was......
now stop writing bullshit, and think about what you're saying......


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 14:49:

quote:
Originally posted by Az
how would they be reversed? I see North Korea as a threat, Iraq are nobodies in comparison.
I wouldn't be saying why korea, as I've stated why there should be military action against Korea
thats one of the stupidest things I've ever read....



dude WTF is your problem.....i simply asked you a question...

quote:
Originally posted by Az
yes, and I've said that Korea is a far more pressing situation, and I'm pretty sure anyone with a clue agrees with me.....
I said there should be action of Korea, so why would I change my mind
yet again you're writing shit..........


relax.....i am not writing shit...again i only asked.

dude why must you persnally attack everyone that challenges your views.....are you that immature that you must resort to name calling?...grow up an enter adulthood where you can speak without getting so angry that you have to put down others.....

sorry if i offended you...i was just challenging your thoughts...isnt that what a debate is based on.


Posted by Az on Feb-19-2003 15:06:

my problem is there was no need to ask the question, u were trying to spin it. If you'd have bothered reading my post I said there should be action, yet you didn't bother, and looked at the post how you wanted to....


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 15:14:

quote:
Originally posted by Az
my problem is there was no need to ask the question, u were trying to spin it. If you'd have bothered reading my post I said there should be action, yet you didn't bother, and looked at the post how you wanted to....



no i read and understood your posts....i was just playing devils advocate...


Posted by Az on Feb-19-2003 15:25:

quote:
Originally posted by tiesto14
no i read and understood your posts....i was just playing devils advocate...

there was no need, you just made yourself look like a muppet....


Posted by tiesto14 on Feb-19-2003 15:31:

quote:
Originally posted by Az
there was no need, you just made yourself look like a muppet....


there you again....u can not resist calling names....how sad.


Posted by DrUg_Tit0 on Feb-19-2003 21:35:

Vesa, about your previous post:

Again here, I have a problem with the first part of your post. The second part is basically logical consequences of the first one, but the first part is not on such firm ground.

First of all, I don't think Saddam and his followers have a very large problem killing other muslims because they did kill about 200000 or so kurds in the last few years. Also, not many other muslim countries got very worried about it. The only reason Saddam can't retake the northern Kurdish areas is the no-fly zone where american and british bombers keep attacking Saddams forces, so they're leaving them at bay. Right after the first gulf war, Saddam did succesfully quell the large Kurdish uprising in those areas.

Besides, Baath is a pretty much secular party, so there is a very slim chance anybody from it is associated with Al Quaeda. And even if someone was, purges in the party would not destabilize it much because Saddam has also done that in the past and with much success.
It also means that only the most loyal members are left. Most islamic groups coming from Iraq are coming from the parts Saddam doesn't control, and he doesn't control them because of the US forces which are patroling those areas. If the US forces were to leave those areas, he'd be back in there in a matter of days.

Really, if Al Quaeda was the primary concern, US should just leave Iraq alone to deal with it because it is their joint interest. However, it seems to me that the real reason for intervention in the area isn't and cannot be Al Quaeda and other islamic organizations, because the course US is taking is opposite of what it should be and it is doing islamists a favour. That is of course unless the US is set on a much larger scale war then it seems to us now, and this is just a first step towards it. But that can very likely turn into one too big pretzel for Bush to swallow.

Now, about what you said in your second post about Iranian forces, I think their involvement in the area doesn't have much to do with americans. They're in there most probably because they think if a war breaks out Iran could get involved and get something for itself while the others are fighting. It could likely take some of the land with shiite (or is it sunni? whichever are the Iranians) majority for itself during the confusion caused by the war on other fronts.


Posted by occrider on Feb-26-2003 00:31:

Re: There are some very disturbing signs that Iraq may not be the only one

quote:
Originally posted by Vesa

Anyone understands that neither Saddam nor any of his military officers is gonna give Iraq's WMD to Iran (unless they are Iranian agents). How could they explain such a crazy act to their own people? It would be the worst kind of treason to give your own WMD to your hostile neighbour country: it would make your country defenceless, and empower your enemy.

What do you think the people of the U.S. would do to Bush if he one day said "Sorry guys, I gave all our nukes and germs to Russia so that China can't get them." Of course, all 280.000.000 Americans would rip him apart in a fit of joint outrage. So Bush knows very well that the same fate would happen to Saddam if he gave his WMD to his neighbours.

So the question is: why is the U.S. Government publishing such utter bullshit?


The article doesn't say that Rumsfeld thinks they may be storing WMD in Iran. As a matter of fact they don't specify any nation at all. The article simply states Iraq may try to hide weapons in other countries much like they sent planes to Iran in the first gulf war so they wouldn't be bombed. Then the article states that Iran and Syria would likely stay out of any conflict in the region. So where are you getting your facts that the US government is publishing stories that Iraq is storing WMD in Iran??


Posted by shlomo_hamalech on Feb-26-2003 00:38:

my two cents

i know that anything we talk about is at most 20% of whats really going on out there... I know what you don't know, and you know what I don't know. I know, that the arab dictators share a common goal. They don't want to lose power. They know WMD will stop anyone from ruining their dicatorships, so they are sharing/hiding/producing whatever bombs!

that includes much of the arab world, but I won't be a dick and say all cause its simply not true!!!! Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon is controlled by syria (http://www.fortruthssake.com for the proof) and more countries that I don't even know off hand all play parts in the terrorist game. Each country has its own means for producing, and each country has its own terrorist groups. They are working together closer everyday. It's just a matter of time before we have a world wide army of hidden suicide bombers ready to strike with even WMD anywhere they feel their dictatorships are threatened...


if no war happens, lets see where the world stands in 2 years...

I say ONLY 2 years lets see where it stands!!!

SHLOMO ELIYAHU BARON


Posted by occrider on Feb-26-2003 01:03:

Re: Re: Re: There are some very disturbing signs that Iraq may not be the only one

quote:
Originally posted by Vesa
See the Iran topic I just lifted. There are Iranian-trained Shiite guerillas in Iraq. They will inevitably end up fighting with the U.S. troops.

The only countries where Saddam could be hiding his WMD are Syria and Iran (unless Bush will claim that they were flown in an unmanned drone to FARC rebels in Colombia ).

So 2 + 2 = 4. The fact of Iranian-trained guerillas in Iraq + the strange propaganda that an unspecified country may have Saddam's WMD = Saddam's EMD may be in Iran. At least according to my calculations

But this will be easy to verify. We'll see within a couple months, whether the U.S. takes up these allegations again. If they do (by saying that "Iraqi WMD remain unaccounted for despite searching through all Iraq), we'll know that some other country will "be disarmed of WMD" quite soon


I looked up the IRan thread but I didn't see any article about Iranina trained guerillas in Iraq. However an unspecified country can be anywhere. It's not like Iraq is confined to using a truck or a train to transport WMDs. No middle east country is going to come under the limelight by storing WMDs for Iraq. If any place, Africa would be the most likely area.


Posted by Verona^My on Feb-27-2003 06:00:

quote:
Originally posted by joeh152
israel also goes round stealing land and bombing people, doesnt mean its right, arse.


Israel didn't go around stealing land, the Arabs came around, got beaten back, lost, and Israel gained some ground in the process, much of which was returned, but not all.

Israel does bomb people, but so do Palastinians, neither is on higher moral footing. The terrorist groups who's aim is the destruction of Israel complicate the matter much.


Posted by Verona^My on Feb-27-2003 06:21:

quote:
Originally posted by DJ_Skaya
Obviously he was good enough for us to leave him in control of Iraq......


LMAO so true, so true. I mean, if he was such a bad a$$ threat during the Gulf War when we knew for certain that he had chemical weapons cause he gased the Kurds in the late 80's, why the hell didn't we just take him out then. It would have saved us a lot of trouble and we wouldn't have had to impose sanctions, and run through all that inspections bollocks during the Clinton era.

We knew we had WMD all along, the inspection process in the 90's was a joke, and now WMD is being used as a pretext to remove Saddam. He had WMD during the Gulf War, it could have been used as a pretext then.

The second war will cost a lot more money $100 billion or more, as opposed to the $30 billion of the Gulf War.

And as an American, I'm wondering what the hell we are going to get out of this mess. $100 billion & countless people killed better damn well be for something more than WMD & regrime change in Iraq, even a shit load of oil isn't going to cover $100 million dollar expenses...

And a note to Bush, quit cutting taxes, you've got a $300 billion dollar deficit, it's time you put some of that fiscal conservatism to work, and bring forth a balanced budget. Ah, the dreams of a republican actually putting forth a balanced budget, perhaps one day, 50 years from now after we filed for Chapter 11.


Posted by occrider on Feb-27-2003 08:35:

quote:
Originally posted by Verona^My

And a note to Bush, quit cutting taxes, you've got a $300 billion dollar deficit, it's time you put some of that fiscal conservatism to work, and bring forth a balanced budget. Ah, the dreams of a republican actually putting forth a balanced budget, perhaps one day, 50 years from now after we filed for Chapter 11.


I've said it before I'll say it again. A balanced budget at a time like this would be severely detrimental to our economy. If you're a student of economics one of the first things you understand is the role of the business cycle and efforts to combat it. After the stock market crash of 1929 Hoover strived to maintain a balanced budget which was a collosal mistake that resulted in the stagflation extending far into the 30's. During times of deep economic depression it is far more advantageous to enact stimulus packages that jump start the economy. World War 2 accomplished this in the 30's and 40's with the massive demand of production and labor. Anyway, back to the issue at hand, the current, sound economic mindset is to replace consumer demand, during low ebbs of the business cylce, with government sacntioned programs. This will compensate for the lack of consumer demand and as such stimilate the economy for when it peaks at the end of the business cycle. At sucha time, governement spending is curtailed to make up the losses compiled during the recession. Theefore there will be a surplus to compensate for the previous deficet Thus if I were bush i would pump MORE money into the economy rather than less.


Posted by Verona^My on Feb-27-2003 18:36:

quote:
Originally posted by occrider
Thus if I were bush i would pump MORE money into the economy rather than less.


The great depression wasn't solved through tax cuts, it was solved through rigorous government spending through new deal programs & ultimately military spending because of World War II.

Hence government pumping money into the economy through new deal programs, tax cuts do not necessarily pump money into the economy, as government is still apart of the economy, government spending will. This was the solution to the great depression.

Tax cuts aren't the end all & be all of government policy, sometimes new deal style programs are better suited to stimulate the economy. In fact the economy is so complex, that figuring out which will work better in any given situation is important. My beef with Republicans is that their solution is always tax cuts, they never think of any other way to stimulate an economy, and they are extremely one dimensional in their policies. Even when Alan Greenspan said in the past few weeks that further tax cuts would be pointless, Bush ignored him & wants him removed for that remark. I'll listen to Alan Greenspan on economic issues before any Republican, cause listening to republicans is like hearing an automated message... tax cuts... tax cuts... tax cuts... tax cuts... tax cuts...

About deficits & the debt, the debt is huge, monumental, I dont know what it was like back in 1929, maybe it was worse then, but the US government literally owes out trillions of dollars of money, and the interest takes up some 15-20% of our federal budget. Ultimately this has to be paid off eventually, through some really hard times. But now Bush is rapidly accelarating the debt, something that should be stopped forthwidth.

Hoover had some bad times in 1929, he wanted to maintain a balanced budget, but he later lost to Roosevelt, who promised the new deal programs to stimulate the economy. Tax cuts weren't really thought of as a way to stimulate an economy back then as much, social programs were.


Posted by occrider on Feb-27-2003 19:49:

Verona:

I agree in part with what you are saying. My original reply was to your remark that Bush should try to achieve a balanced budget. That in my opinion would be disastrous to the economy and that he should pump more money into the economy through fiscal policy in general. Yes that could include government spending but it could also include tax cuts which DO in a way pump more money into the economy. Economically speaking, a tax cut will increase consumer and business spending which is what our economy needs. One of the reasons government spending was so successful during the depression was because the unemployment rate was so high. The massive new deal programs created a ton of jobs that stimulated the economy, which was exactly what the economy needed back then. However, our current economy is not facing massive unemployment, and we don't NEED huge government spending to create new jobs. If Bush started a massive government spending program to say ... build 50 new highways at a time when the budget is already overbudgeted, the economy is still doing poorly, and we're faced with significant cost overruns from an impeding war, people would be screaming for his head. What we DO need is to stimulate consumer confidence, consumer spending, and business capital. Tax cuts are one approach to that. I never said it should be the only approach to that. Government spending should occur as well. But don't be so critical of tax cuts as a viable fiscal policy.

I also agree that something should be done about the national debt, I'm merely saying that now is not really the time to do it. Efforts to reduce it SHOULD have been done at the start of Clinton's term when the economy was booming. I find it inexcuseable that he only achieved a budget surplus towards the very end of his Presidency at the peak of the boom.


Posted by ali92 on Feb-27-2003 20:54:

quote:
Originally posted by Time2Burn
To dispell some of these senseless arguements and name calling lets start talking some TRUTH here.

Mr Az you are right! Suddam and Iraq do not have ties with Al Qaeda! Never have and never will. Once people stop believing all the rhetoric that comes out the president's mouth we could actually start understanding stuff.

And this one is easy:

Who are Al Qaeda?

A group of Islamic Fundamentalists against all who do not follow their interpretation of the Koran (sp?). I know I'm simplifying their philisophical structure but generally I am correct. They are agianst those who do not follow their ideals. And as a result are prepared to fight.

Iraq is country that is on the complete opposite end of Al Qaeda's Ideological Spectrum. It is a country based on secular ideals. They have short hair and do not wear the religous clothing like they do in lets say Iran. As a result countries like Iraq are ememies of the Al Qaeda as they are not devoted Muslims in their opinion.

Iraq themselves have had to deal with the problems of Islamic Fundamentalism/Militarism.

It sucks that GW can speak so much misinformation and because he is the prez people hold "his" "thoughts" in high regard.

Please people take information with a grain of salt.


It's spelt "Qur'an". "Koran" is just the US English spelling of the same word. Kind of like the differences between "colour" in International/UK English and "color" in US English. Use "Qur'an" as the spelling, as that's the way they pronounce it (like 2 syllables, kur-AHn). Arabic romanisation uses a "q" for the beginning of that word.


Posted by ali92 on Feb-27-2003 21:09:

quote:
Originally posted by guetag
Read This Smart guy

U.N. Security Council Resolution 688 (5 April 1991) condemned Saddam Hussein�s repression of the Iraqi civilian population. The resolution also requires Saddam Hussein to end his repression of the Iraqi people and to allow immediate access to international humanitarian organizations to help those in need of assistance.

Saddam Hussein has repeatedly violated these provisions and has expanded his violence against women and children, continued his horrific torture and execution of innocent Iraqis.

Saddam has continued to violate the basic human rights of the Iraqi people and has continued to control all sources of information (including the killing of over 500 journalists in the past decade).

Saddam has also harassed humanitarian aid workers, expanded his crimes against Muslims, has withheld food from families that offer their children to his regime and has continued to subject Iraqis to unfair imprisonment.

The government of Iraq uses military force to repress civilian populations throughout the county, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the destruction of entire villages.

Iraq has refused to allow the U.N.�s special Rapporteur for human rights to return to Iraq since his first visit in 1992. It has also refused to allow the stationing of human rights monitors as required by the U.N. resolution.

In September 2001, the Iraqi government expelled six U.N. humanitarian relief workers, who until 1992 ensured the delivery of humanitarian relief services, without providing an explanation.

Iraqi authorities routinely practice extrajudicial summary or arbitrary executions throughout the country. The total number of prisoners that have been executed in the past five years runs into thousands, including hundreds of arbitrary executions in the last months of 1998 at Abu Gharib and Radwaniyah prisons near Baghdad.

In the 1970�s and 1980�s, the Iraqi regime destroyed over 300 Kurdish villages. The destruction of Kurdish and Turkomen homes is still going on in Iraqi-controlled areas of northern Iraq.

In northern Iraq the government is continuing its campaign of forcibly deporting Kurdish and Turkomen families to southern governments. As a result, approximately 900,000 citizens are internally displaced throughout Iraq.

Human rights organizations and opposition groups continue to receive reports of women who suffered from severe psychological trauma after being raped by Iraqi personnel while in custody. These personnel also videotape the rape of female relatives of suspected oppositionists and used the videotapes for blackmail purposes to ensure their future cooperation.

Iraqi security agents reportedly decapitated numerous women and men in front of their family members. According to Amnesty International, the victims� heads were displayed in front of their homes for several days.

Iraq�s 1988-1989 Anfal campaign subjected the Kurdish people in northern Iraq to the most widespread attack of chemical weapons ever used against a civilian population. In the town of Halabja alone, an estimated 5,000 civilians were killed and over 10,000 were injured.

In March 1999, the regime shot and killed grand Ayatollah al Sayid Muhammad SADIG AL Sadr, the most senior Shi�a religious leader in Iraq. Since 1991, dozens of senior Shi�a clerics and hundreds of their followers have been murdered or arrested, and their whereabouts remain unknown.

In 2000, the Iraqi authorities reportedly introduced tongue amputations as a form of punishment for persons who criticize Saddam Hussein or his family.

The Iraqi security services routinely torture detainees. According to former detainees, torture techniques include branding, electric shocks to the genitals, beating, burning with hot irons, suspension from rotating ceiling fans, dripping acid on the skin, rape, breaking of limbs, denial of food and water, and threats to rape or otherwise harm relatives.

There are widespread reports that food and medicine that could have been made available to the general public, including children, have been stockpiled in warehouses or diverted for the personal use of government officials.

Amnesty International reported that Iraq has the world�s worst record for numbers of persons who have disappeared or remain unaccounted for.

Saddam Hussein does not permit freedom of speech or of the press and does not tolerate political dissent in areas under his control. In November 2000, the U.N. General Assembly criticized Saddam Hussein�s �suppression of freedom of thought, expression, information, association, and assembly�.

The Special Rapporteur stated in October 1999, that citizens lived �in a climate of fear�, risking arrest and interrogation by the police or military intelligence. He noted that �the mere suggestion that someone is not a supporter of the president carries the prospect of the death penalty�.


Where's your source for all this?


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