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-- The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates
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quote:

Originally posted by occrider Hehe well I agree that even if we argued for a dozen pages or so, we wouldn't arrive at a concrete conclusion since economics is theoretical at best with contradictory arguments to any issue. I welcome any economics debate however. I haven't studied it for some years so I'm not exactly up to date on the most recent studies. I think the last good economics debate I've engaged in was the merits (or lack thereof) of Reaganomics with MisterOpus.

lol
the positive side to debt financing? This is a HUGE issue for me right now that I am attempting to be open minded about. So, I am paying close attention to the rationale behind it while I am reading. To this point, it seems like the qualifier would be keeping the ratio below 5% of GDP for a developed country that is considered a "safe haven" like the United States. The key there is not to go overboard, though, and I haven't used that qualifier and others to reassess that portion of Reaganomics. My gut feeling is that I've never really liked the "trickle down" economics theory for a few solid reasons. I'm willing to explore it further though.

quote:

Originally posted by DJ Fin lol the positive side to debt financing? This is a HUGE issue for me right now that I am attempting to be open minded about. So, I am paying close attention to the rationale behind it while I am reading. To this point, it seems like the qualifier would be keeping the ratio below 5% of GDP for a developed country that is considered a "safe haven" like the United States. The key there is not to go overboard, though, and I haven't used that qualifier and others to reassess that portion of Reaganomics. My gut feeling is that I've never really liked the "trickle down" economics theory for a few solid reasons. I'm willing to explore it further though.

Well I would never argue that debt financing is an effective tool for most economic situations. I would argue, however, that debt financing was an effective (and necessary tool considering the geo-political conditions at the time) that resulted in definite negative ramifications yet, in aggreggate, was ultimately successful all things considered. Furthermore, Reagan never intended for debt financing to be continued indefinitely. Rather the intended goal was for future administrations to utilize the subsequent economic stability to curb spending.

At any rate, I apologize for my lack of maintenance of economics data. I'm still transitioning into my new job which has more or less thrown me off balance with respects to collecting data and posting in general. I have to demonstrate competance before I start goofing off

Weekly updates are back.

Week Ending July 25

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.2
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued on its downward path, dropping to 1.1% for the week ending July 16. The decline comes on the heels of a small drop in the index�s level from 131.5 to 131.2.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 617.9
FIRST TAKE: Mortgage demand is slowing. The MBA index declined for the week ending July 16, 2004. The 4.0% decline brings the composite index down to 617.9. Both components of the index are falling. Refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. Purchase activity, however, remains quite strong.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -7
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index held steady in the latest week after four consecutive gains. The index remains at a five-month high. Assessments of the economy and personal finances improved in the latest week, while assessments of the buying climate weakened.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 299.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: According to the American Petroleum Institute, there was a very small increase in crude oil stocks for the week ending July 16, while the Energy Information Administration reported a 1% decline in crude stocks. Both data sources showed an increase in gasoline stocks for the week, which should put further downward pressure on gas prices.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales remained range-bound, rising a slight 0.2% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth slumped to 3.3%, the slowest growth since early last August. Cool weather and increasingly difficult comparisons continue to be blamed, although high energy prices and weakened consumer cash flow are also responsible.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.80 million
FIRST TAKE: In June, residential construction tumbled harder than it has since the beginning of 2003. The unexpectedly large decline of 8.5% brings total starts down to 1.802 million annualized units from a slightly upwardly revised May reading. Single-family starts took the biggest hit. Permit issuance is down as well.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 67
FIRST TAKE: The NAHB index softened a bit in July, but remains sturdy at a reading of 67. Still strong mortgage applications are keeping up builders� expectations. Weakening is particularly evident in the outlook, with the traffic of prospective buyers index and the expectations index falling.

Week Ending August 1

RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 3.0%
FIRST TAKE: Gross domestic product rose at a smaller than expected 3.0% in the second quarter. Business investment actually strengthened a bit last quarter relative to the first quarter of the year, as did home construction. However, consumer spending slowed considerably, posting just a 1.0% gain for the quarter.

RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 302.5
FIRST TAKE: The New York City economy is building momentum according to the NAPM-NY Business Conditions Index (BCI). The headline figure expanded nearly 4% month-over-month in July and now stands at 302.5.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 96.7
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for July was 96.7, up only slightly from June�s 95.6 and the preliminary 96.0. Both components of the index were up from their preliminary values although on the expectations index gained compared to June.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 64.7
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI surged in July to 64.7, far surpassing expectations for a more modest rebound. Coupled with other outsized regional reports, this bodes well for a strong ISM reading on Monday.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.1
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued on its downward path, dropping to 0.9% for the week ending July 23. The decline comes on the heels of a marginal drop in the index�s level from 131.2 to 131.1.

RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: -4.7%
FIRST TAKE: Agricultural prices tumbled 4.7% in July as prices for most cash crops have begun to decline in response to forecasts of potential record yields. Cattle and dairy prices also slipped in July. Still, from a historical perspective the pricing environment for farmers is still quite good as the topline price index is 16% ahead of last year.

RELEASE: Employment Cost Index [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Employment costs accelerated by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2004, in line with our forecast. Benefit cost increases continue to lead the charge, accounting for over half the increase in total costs, while wage cost increases remain timid. Low wage costs suggest persistent weakness in the labor markets, even as soaring benefit costs remain a serious concern to employers.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 345,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations by 5,000, totaling 345,000 for the week ending July 24. Continuing claims have been quite volatile of late, rebounding to 2.96 million in the week ending July 17, having fallen to a post-recession low of 2.786 million during the prior week.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 38
FIRST TAKE: Newspaper help wanted index dropped one point in June, to 38. It is only two points higher than its cyclical low of 36 reached a year ago. It is unlikely that the Conference Board measure provides a complete picture of labor demand.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,297 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground natural gas storage increased by 70 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 23. The build was just below expectations, which had called for net injections of 75 Bcf. Thus, today�s inventory data should be neutral to slightly bullish for natural gas markets. However, natural gas markets remain dominated by movements in the volatile petroleum complex.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 621.4
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index increased a scant 0.6% to 621.4 for the week ending July 23, 2004. The refi and purchase indexes are moving in opposite directions, but for both components, the change from the previous week is small, if not negligible. Refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. Purchase activity, however, remains quite strong.

RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Another disappointing durable goods orders release. While the 0.7% advance reversed two months of declines, the gain was half expectations. In fact, were it not for a large increase in orders of defense aircraft, the topline would have fallen yet again.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -7
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index held steady at -7 for the third consecutive week after four weeks of gains. The index remains at a five-month high. Assessments of personal finances improved in the latest week, while assessments of the buying climate weakened.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales remained range-bound, rising a slight 0.2% for the second consecutive week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth improved to 3.8% and sales were reportedly on to above plan for most retailers as warmer weather reportedly boosted summer sales.

RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,326,000
FIRST TAKE: In line with expectations, new home sales declined in June. New home sales declined by 0.8% to 1.326 million annualized units from May. Census also revised upward May data by 2%. The slower sales reflect the slowing in June�s mortgage applications index and softening in builders� view of current conditions. Nonetheless, the pace of new sales is still quite robust.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 106.1
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence surged again in July to 106.1, up from an upwardly revised 102.8 in June. That was its highest value since June 2002. The gain was led by the expectations component of the index, which was up over five points. The present situation component increased less than a point.

RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 88.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence slipped in July. The UBS index of investor optimism fell seven points on modest declines in investor assessments of both the economy and their personal finances.

RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.95 Million
FIRST TAKE: The rush to buy before mortgage rates move up further continues to impact sales of existing homes, which hit another record in June. Existing home sales gained by 2.1% from May to hit 6.95 million units.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 36.1%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence remains strong, but appears to have moderated in recent weeks, consistent with the overall slowdown in economic activity. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, although both areas are off their highs. Spirits continue to lag in continental Europe, and appear to be deteriorating in South America. Mining, high-tech and business service firms are actually more upbeat than previously. Most other industries display flat to lower optimism. Expectations have measurably weakened, however, as there has been a notable erosion in responses to the question regarding expectations six-months hence. Previously giddy manufacturers, while still very positive, have turned measurably more cautious in recent weeks.

Data for last week. Abysmal payroll numbers and a downward revision in last month's payrolls. Paradoxically, the household survey registered a drop in the unemployed. My estimation is that unemployment probably remained constant all things considered and the discrepancy is due to the smaller sampling size of the household survey. High energy prices are continuing to cut into consumer spending and threaten inflation. It will be curious to see what the Federal Open Market Committee decides to do today. In my opinion, they should proceed with the interest rate hikes. Despite the jobs data, all other underlying indicators indicate a hiccup.

Week Ending August 8

RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 103.8
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, fairly steady aggregate growth is in store over the next six to eight months, though there are regional disparities. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area increased 0.1 points for the month of June, after falling 0.1 points in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the fifth consecutive month after an upward trend that began in April 2003. Global growth has peaked for the cycle, but a sharp deceleration is not imminent.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 32,000
FIRST TAKE: Payroll employment gains were far weaker in July than expected with only 32,000 net new jobs created. The weak result was mainly due to lackluster service job creation; manufacturing employment rebounded. Moreover, the weak June total was revised down, from 112,000 to 78,000 net new jobs. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, declined by 10 basis points, to 5.5%.

RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. future inflation gauge (FIG) rose to 117.5 in July, but did not fully reverse the June decline. Most other FIGs, where data lag the U.S. by one month, fell in June. Crude material prices, which have been falling recently, played a significant role and were mentioned as putting downward pressure on most indices in this report.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.9
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued on its downward path, dropping to 0.1% for the week ending July 30. The decline comes as the index�s level increased from 131.9 to 131.0.

RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $6.6 billion
FIRST TAKE: June consumer credit rose by $6.6 billion, just a shade over expectations. Revolving growth held up, but nonrevolving growth fell.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 3.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a weak 3.1% in July according to the ICSC chain store index, only slightly better than June�s 3.0% (revised), and the second weakest pace of the year. Difficult comparisons due to tax rebate checks last year, high gasoline prices, shifting sales tax holidays and weather were blamed for the weakness. Sales were generally mixed relative to expectations with apparel and footwear stores suffering while and luxury retailers and wholesale clubs performed well.

RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 134
FIRST TAKE: Not surprisingly, the Monster Employment Index eased slightly in July, reflecting the letup in seasonal hiring. The index reading fell to 134 from 136 in June. Because the series is not seasonally adjusted and because there is insufficient history to the data, it is difficult to tease out the cyclical factors in this report.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 336,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 336,000 last week, slightly below consensus estimates. The previous week's total was revised higher by 2,000 to 347,000. As expected, continuing claims fell again to 2.911 million. The latest figures do not change the story of a recovering labor market.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,380 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 83 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 30. The build was just in line with expectations, which had called for a build of 84 Bcf. Thus, today�s data should have a neutral effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 336,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 336,000 last week, slightly below consensus estimates. The previous week's total was revised higher by 2,000 to 347,000. As expected, continuing claims fell again to 2.911 million. The latest figures do not change the story of a recovering labor market.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,380 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 83 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 30. The build was just in line with expectations, which had called for a build of 84 Bcf. Thus, today�s data should have a neutral effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 17.3 Million
FIRST TAKE: As expected, vehicle sales rebounded in July supported by stepped up incentive spending. Vehicle sales totaled 17.3 million units, up from a disappointing pace of 15.4 million in June. The July figure even exceeded the average for the first six months of the year.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a slight 0.2% for the third consecutive week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth slowed to 3.1%, the slowest in exactly a year as comparisons became more difficult.

RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer spending tumbled 0.7% in June while both personal and disposable income rose 0.2%. Wages decreased slightly and the saving rate rose to 2.0%. Data were revised back to the start of 2001.

RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,646
FIRST TAKE: Fourth quarter 2003 gross flow data reveal that job gains picked up relative to the third quarter, to 7.646 million, from 7.396 million in the third quarter. The net gains were due to stronger gains, while cuts eased down only slightly, from 7.324 million to 7.302 million. However, the number of new jobs created was still well below the levels of prior years.

RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 20%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com�s probability of recession shot up in July to 20%, from June�s upwardly revised 12% level. The flattening out of the yield curve due to the Fed rate hike in June was responsible for almost the entire shift. Weakness in equity markets and housing markets didn�t help either. Strong improvements in consumer confidence and the reduction in unemployment insurance claims are positive.

RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 69,572
FIRST TAKE: Job cutting activity in July remained around the same range as in the past few months. Companies and public entities announced cuts affecting 69,572 in July, slightly higher than the 64,343 announced in June. The average for the last six months is 70,791. The increase in July was driven by an increase in cuts in the financial services, automotive industry, consumer products, retail trade, and insurance.

RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 2.8%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales rose 2.8% in June, leaving them 40.3% higher than last year at this time. Sales of both DRAMs and chips used for wireless communications grew solidly in the second quarter. The majority of demand continues to flow from the Asia-Pacific region where sales grew by 4.9% on the month.

RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending decreased 0.3% in June, falling short of both the consensus estimate and Economy.com's forecast. The preliminary estimate for May was revised down from 0.3% to 0.1%. Of the three major components, public sector construction was the only one to post a measurable gain, expanding 0.2% between May and June.

RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 62.0
FIRST TAKE: The ISM index rebounded in July to 62.0 and extended the streak of readings above 60 points to nine months. Equally important, the prices paid index fell below 80 for the first time since January, indicating that pricing pressures from industrial inputs are lessening.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 35.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence remains strong, but it has notably softened in recent weeks. Expectations regarding prospects six-month hence have in particular weakened, falling to a level last seen a year ago. Sales and hiring intentions have also begun to edge lower. Previously giddy manufacturers, while still very positive, have turned measurably more cautious in recent weeks. Government, retailers, and travel companies also continue to be less positive. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, among construction and real estate firms, mining companies, and high-tech firms. Indeed, businesses are most upbeat regarding their investment in equipment and software.

Data for the past 2 weeks. Data is somewhat mixed again. Threat of inflation is low ... fed manufacturing surveys show continual expansion but a slowing down of expansion ... retail sales and chain stores snapshots are somewhat mixed on a week to week basis.

Week Ending August 22

RELEASE: Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales) [United States]: 15.7 billion
FIRST TAKE: Unseasonally adjusted e-commerce sales edged up modestly in the second quarter from the first three months of this year. Yearly growth slowed from 28.1% in the first quarter to 23.1% in the second quarter.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.7
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) experienced a small bounce during the week ending August 13, moving from -0.1% to 0.0%. This comes as the index�s level increased from 131.4 to 131.7.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 331,000
FIRST TAKE: Job claims were slightly lower than expected last week - 331,000 displaced workers filed for initial benefits. As has been the case recently, the previous week's claims were revised up by 1,000, to 334,000. Continuing claims rose above 2.9 million again, but revisions will probably pull this number down next week.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The leading indicators index fell 0.3% in July, in line with our expectations. This is the second consecutive month of decline in the index, the first time this has happened since early 2003. Only four of the ten components improved in July. Housing permit issuance and average weekly hours were positive factors, while interest rate spreads, weak equity markets and higher unemployment insurance claims weighed on the index. The coincident and lagging indices continued to advance in July.

RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.35
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.35 in July from a downward revised reading of -0.19 for June, indicating resumed growth in economic activity.



RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,530 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 78 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 13. Net injections were just in line with expectations. Today�s storage report should therefore have a neutral impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 28.5
FIRST TAKE: The Philly Fed Index dropped a little more than expected in August, dipping from 36.1 to 28.5. Nonetheless, the Third District's manufacturers are still in the midst of a sustained period of expansion as the index has remained in positive territory for the past 15 months.

RELEASE: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey [United States]: -20.0%
FIRST TAKE: The Fed�s July Loan Officer survey reported a further easing in lending standards across all major categories. There was some moderation, however, in the rate of easing. Banks also reported an appreciable rise in the demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate loans since April.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 689.4
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index advanced a smart 12% to 689.4 for the week ending August 13, 2004. Falling mortgage interest rates are bolstering demand for home purchases as well as for refinancing. Notwithstanding last week�s reading, refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. The purchase index has remained at a strong level since the spring.


RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -10
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell for the second straight week. Consumer expectations also deteriorated in August, with just 24% saying that the economy is getting better, a five-month low.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.0 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks recorded a moderate decline during the week ending August 13. Motor gasoline stocks recorded a more substantial draw. Thus, today�s data should be moderately bullish for crude oil and bullish for motor gasoline.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell for the first time in seven weeks, dropping 0.6% last week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth slowed to 3.0%, its slowest growth in just over a year. A number of special factors impacted spending including Hurricane Charley, Tropical Storm Bonnie, sales tax holidays in several states, and high gasoline prices.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in July, with energy prices falling 1.9% and food prices increasing just 0.3%. Core consumer prices rose 0.1%, which was slow enough to pull the annual rate of inflation down one-tenth to 1.8%.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.98 million
FIRST TAKE: Strong demand for housing resulted in a rebound in residential construction in July. Housing starts increased by strong 8% to 1.978 million annualized units. A pull-back in mortgage interest rates is helping to keep homebuying buoyant. Moreover, builders themselves are stepping in with financial incentives to bolster demand. Permits are up as well.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production rose 0.4% in July, but was not able to fully recover ground lost in June. The June data was revised downward by 0.2% to show a decline of 0.5% for that month. Capacity utilization rose 0.2% in July to 77.1%, but the increase in July was also less than the decline in June.

RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 12.6
FIRST TAKE: The pace of expansion for the manufacturing sector in NY state slowed dramatically in August. The general business conditions index dropped to 12.6, a substantial decline from the 36.5 posted in July.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 33.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence continues to edge lower. While still strong, confidence is well off its peak early summer. Responses to nearly all questions have weakened in recent weeks, particularly to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions six months hence. Hiring intentions have also notably softened. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, and among construction and real estate firms, transportation companies, and high-tech firms. Indeed, businesses are most upbeat regarding their investment in equipment and software.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 71
FIRST TAKE: Builders are buoyant. The NAHB index moved up sharply in August to 71. All three components of the index advanced. Notably, traffic of prospective buyers� index is at its highest point since the late 1990s. The NAHB also revised upward July�s reading slightly. Strong mortgage applications are keeping up builders� view of the housing market.

Week Ending August 15

RELEASE: International Trade (FT900) [United States]: -$55.8 billion
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. trade deficit widened by an unusually large amount in June. According to the BEA and Census, the U.S. balance of trade came in at -$55.8 billion in June�a decrease of $8.9 billion. Oil prices inflated the import tab, and a falloff in sales of capital goods undermined exports.

RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose 0.1% in July, due largely to higher energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased by 0.1% as well, since declining prices for finished foods offset energy price hikes. There remains ample inflation at earlier stages of processing. Prices for core intermediate goods rose by 0.5% and prices for core crude goods rose by 8.6%.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 94.0
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for August was 94.0, down from 96.7 in July due to tumbling assessments of the outlook. Consumers� views of current conditions improved modestly as gasoline prices dipped.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.5
FIRST TAKE: After another 10 basis point drop, the six-month annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was zero for the week ending August 6. The index�s level dropped from 131.9 to 131.5.

RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 0.2% in July, more than reversing June�s unexpected decline, which was revised upward by one-tenth to -0.1%. Oil prices were the chief reason for the increase in import prices in July, but the increase in petroleum prices was less than expected. Export prices rose 0.4% despite a second month of declining agricultural prices.

RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales rose 0.7% in July, largely due to soaring sales at auto dealers. Excluding autos, sales rose only 0.2%. Core sales rose 0.3% as falling gasoline prices undermined gas station sales. While the growth was less than expected, June�s decline was revised down substantially, with widespread upward revisions to June sales.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 333,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 333,000 last week, while the previous week's total was revised up by 1,000, to 337,000. Claims fell below consensus estimates. Since there are no special factors explaining claims in recent weeks, this suggests that the lull in the labor market in June and July could be dissipating.

RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories rose a larger than expected 0.9% in June. This accompanied a minimal 0.1% gain in business sales for the month. The surprisingly large gain in June inventories, along with sizable upward revision to the May gain, suggests the likelihood of an upward revision to Q2 GDP growth, all else held equal.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,452 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 72 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 6, just shy of expectations, which had called for a build of some 75 Bcf. Thus, today�s data should have a neutral effect in natural gas markets.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 616.1
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index slipped by 0.7% to 616.1 for the week ending August 6, 2004. Mortgage rates declined, but only refis responded, with an increase in the refi component of the MBA index. Purchase applications declined. Notwithstanding last week�s reading, refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year, and there is still no sign of a sustained and substantial slowdown in purchase applications.


RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -9
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index dipped three points this week. The slowdown in job growth and weakening stock market appears to be catching up to consumer sentiment.

RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 5.9%
FIRST TAKE: Gross job openings and turnovers changed little in June from the month before. The number of hires continued to outpace separations; there were 4.3 million workers hired and 4.0 separated from their jobs. The hiring rate inched up to 3.3%, while the separation rate remained unchanged at 3.1%. The job openings rate was also unchanged at 2.3%, although the actual number of openings inched down slightly.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 294.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded an unexpected and sizable draw during the week ending August 6. The sizable draw can be attributed to a significant drop in imports during the week. Today�s inventory data will thus have a marked bullish impact on petroleum markets. The recent crude rally is likely to gain fresh momentum.

RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$69.2 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for July was $69 billion, slightly larger than CBO's preliminary estimate of $66 billion. Through the first ten months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $396 billion.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales moved very slightly higher for the fourth straight week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth remained at 3.1%, a one-year low.

RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 2.9%
FIRST TAKE: Productivity in the nonfarm business sector advanced 2.9% based on the preliminary reading for the second quarter. The increase was more than expected and reflects a weak 0.8% increase in hours worked over the previous quarter.

RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 6
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity expanded in the Fifth Federal Reserve District for the tenth straight month in July. However, the pace of activity moderated for a second straight month, with the shipments index hitting a low for this year. Generally, however, the regional manufacturing outlook remains positive.

RELEASE: FOMC Meeting [United States]: 1.50%
FIRST TAKE: The FOMC followed through as expected and raised the federal funds rate target 25 basis points to 1.5%. To do otherwise would have raised substantial concerns regarding the economy�s health and likely roiled financial markets. Policymakers did acknowledge the recently soft economy in the policy statement released with their decision, arguing that higher energy prices are the principal reason for the softer economy. They also stated, however, that the economy is expected to soon revive. Policymakers reiterated that future tightening moves will be measured.

RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale inventories topped the consensus in June, advancing 1.1% against expectations for a 0.6% gain. Sales put in a weak performance, coming in virtually unchanged from the previous month.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 34.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence is edging lower. While still strong, confidence is well off its peak early summer. Responses to nearly all questions have weakened in recent weeks, particularly to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions six months hence. Hiring intentions have also notably softened. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, and among construction and real estate firms, mining companies, and high-tech firms. Indeed, businesses are most upbeat regarding their investment in equipment and software.

RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 46
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity remained strong in the Tenth Federal Reserve District in July, despite a slight easing. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production dropped from 51 in June to 46 in July.

Week Ending August 29

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 343,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 last week to 343,000. The Labor Department estimates that half of the week's rise in claims is directly attributable to Hurricane Charlie. This leading indicator of labor market conditions continues to trend below 340,000, signaling solid labor market conditions and providing hope that payroll employment will rebound from the disappointing gains of the last two months.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 37
FIRST TAKE: Newspaper help wanted index dropped one point in July, to 37. The index stands only a point higher than its cyclical low of 36 reached a year ago. But it is unlikely that the Conference Board measure provides a complete picture of labor demand.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 646.3
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index retreated by 6.3% to 646.3 for the week ending August 20, 2004. The decline in this volatile index follows the sharp increase of the previous week. Additionally, mortgage rates were mixed last week. Refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. The purchase index has remained at a strong level since the spring.



RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: New orders for durable goods rose a larger than expected 1.7% July. Add to this solid number the upwardly revised June gain to 1.1% and this report paints the picture of a U.S. manufacturing sector recovery in good shape as we entered summer. However, enthusiasm over today's report must be muted by the fact that the headline gain was concentrated in a surge in transportation orders (mostly aircrafts). Excluding transportation sectors, orders were up a modest 0.1%.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -9
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index edged up a single point in the third week of August. Consumers were more upbeat about their personal finances this week.

RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,134,000
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, new home sales fell in July by 6% to 1.134 million annualized units from June. This pace is the slowest since December. Census also revised downward June data. The slower sales may indicate that the buyers are starting to fatigue after several years of very strong home sales. However, sales remain sturdy and the data tend to be volatile from month to month.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 291.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks recorded a moderate decline during the week ending August 20 according to the Energy Information Administration and a more sizable draw according to the American Petroleum Institute. Overall, today�s data should restore some bullish momentum to petroleum markets even though the momentum will be tempered by less bullish data for gasoline stocks.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales actually rose slightly in the latest week, despite yesterday�s poor report from Wal-Mart. Sales rose 0.1% last week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. The ICSC also reported that back-to-school demand is �moderate� despite the downbeat comments by Wal-Mart. Year-over-year growth slowed to 2.9%, its slowest growth in just over a year.

RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.72 Million
FIRST TAKE: As expected, sales of existing homes stepped back for the month of July, but the 2.9% decline still leaves sales very high at 6.72 million annualized units. While the resale market continues to benefit from a strengthening economy and still affordable mortgage interest rates, the slight constraint on demand due to an uptick in mortgage rates in May and June is showing up in the July sales data.

RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 77.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence declined for the second straight month. The UBS index of investor optimism fell 11 points on modest declines in investors� perceptions about both the economy and their personal finances.


RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 32.6%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence continues to slip. While still high, confidence has fallen measurably over the past two months. It is now back to levels last seen at the start of the year. The most pronounced weakening in responses has been to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions expected six months hence. Sales have also turned notably softer. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, but this is where sentiment has fallen the most.

can we get more updates, or are you too busy with work, occrider

quote:

Originally posted by Perfect_Cheezit can we get more updates, or are you too busy with work, occrider

Although I have been rather busy with work as of late (big presentation to my E-VP in a week who's subsequentely presenting to our CFO ) I outlined my ... unsual circumstances in the other econ thread:

http://www2.tranceaddict.com/forums...12&pagenumber=4

On a plus note, I just got power restored on Friday so I have internet access. Furthermore I just registered my gmail account with all my econ sites so I should be getting updates as of tomorrow. So to sum things up, soon ... very soon I'll be back on track posting weekly updates.

Short list ... I only got data since this past Wednesday:

Week Ending September 17

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 658.2
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index fell 9.2% to 658.2 during the week ending October 8, 2004. This decline is the sharpest since the spring and occurred in both the refi and purchase indexes. The index fell despite another decline in mortgage interest rates. The volatile nature of this statistic, however, renders it far from certain that last week�s drop is the beginning of a broader-based slowing in mortgage demand.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -11
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index moved up one point to -11 in the latest week, ending a more than one-month streak of steady or declining readings.

RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 18.7%
FIRST TAKE: Reflecting the slightly improved employment situation in August relative to July, the rate of job openings remained unchanged in August at 2.4%, while the hire rate rose slightly to 3.3% of employment, from 3.2% in July although it remained lower than during the spring. Separations were unchanged at 3.1% of employment for the fifth consecutive month.

RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods increased by 0.1% in September. This increase would have been larger if not for a 0.9% decline in the finished energy goods index. Rapid inflation continued among core intermediate goods, which increased for the 14th consecutive month.

RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales soared 1.5% in September, well above expectations. Auto sales led the way, but excluding autos sales rose 0.6%, led by strong growth at building supply and general merchandise stores. Core sales rose 0.7%. August�s decline was revised slightly smaller.

RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 17.4
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in New York state during October decelerated more sharply than consensus estimates, as the general business conditions index slipped to 17.4.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production rose a tepid 0.1% in September, even as the August figure was revised downward to negative 0.1%. The effect of recent hurricanes seems to have played a significant role in curtailing production in recent weeks, however.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 87.5
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for October dropped sharply to 87.5, from 94.2 in September. Consumers� assessment of the outlook tumbled while views of current conditions fell modestly. Gasoline prices approaching $2.00 on average were a major factor in the decline.

RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: U.S. business inventories rose 0.7% in August, as sales also rose 0.7% for the month. Already tight inventories tightened further in midsummer. While the August gain is suggestive of still strong inventory building, the summer's pace does suggest that inventory accumulation won't be the large contributor to growth of previous quarters.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.0
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) dropped to -1.0% for week ending October 8. This comes as the index�s level slipped from 131.8 to 131.0.

Week Ending October 24

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.6
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) held steady at -1.0% for the week ending October 15. This comes as the index�s level rose from 131.0 to 131.6.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 72
FIRST TAKE: Builder optimism is picking up again, as low mortgage rates continue to bolster demand for new homes. The NAHB index moved up in October to 72, with all three components of the index advancing. Builder expectations, in particular, are rebounding sharply.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 26.7%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence slipped a bit further in mid-October. Confidence had seemingly stabilized in September after falling throughout the summer. The renewed softening in sentiment is broad-based across the globe and most industries. The most pronounced weakening in responses is to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions expected six months hence. Despite the weaker confidence, it remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding just over its potential of approximately 3%.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales returned to their downbeat ways in the week ending October 16, falling 0.2%, according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index after two weeks of gains. Sales were reportedly strongest in the South, possibly due to replacement demand following the hurricanes. Year-over-year growth slipped to 3.4%.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September, weighed down by a 0.4% decline in energy prices. Core consumer prices rose 0.3%, however, due to larger price gains across most categories of consumer goods and services. With the September increase, core inflation is now 2.0%, the first time it has reached that level since late 2002.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.90 million
FIRST TAKE: Residential construction activity declined in September, continuing a broad trend of slowing that began at the end of last year. While Economy.com�s expectations were on the low side, starts are falling even more sharply, declining 6% below August�s reading to 1.898 million annualized units. This drop is the largest one- month decline since January, and puts starts below last September�s reading. Census revised upward August's numbers.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 709.9
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index increased by 7.9% during the week ending October 15, 2004. The increase is almost strong enough to offset the previous week�s sharp decline, pushing the index up to 709.9. Falling mortgage rates are bolstering applications for both refis and purchases. Refi demand�s slow rise leaves it still looking weak compared to the heights reached last year. Purchase applications are back in very strong territory.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -11
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index held steady at -11 in the latest week. The number of Americans who think that the economy is getting worse is at its highest level in seven months.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 279.4 MB
FIRST TAKE: Inventory data for the week ending October 15 should have a bullish impact on petroleum markets. While the Energy Information Administration reported a build in commercial crude oil stocks, the American Petroleum Institute reported a draw. Moreover, the API and the EIA both reported substantial draws in distillate fuel and motor gasoline stocks.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 329,000
FIRST TAKE: The number of people applying for first-time benefits has fallen back to the levels that prevailed earlier in the summer, prior to the hurricanes. Last week, 329,000 displaced workers filed for claims. The total for the prior week was revised up by 2,000, to 354,000.

RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: -0.01
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed National Activities Index tallied at -0.01, slightly below August's revised +0.03 value.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the leading index fell for the fourth month in a row, declining 0.1% in September. A narrower yield spread and weaker vendor performance were among the factors that pulled the index lower. The coincident index also fell, dropping 0.2%, while the lagging index was unchanged for the month.

RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States]: 708
FIRST TAKE: Employers initiated 708 mass layoff events involving 68,972 workers in September. The manufacturing industry continues to account for the largest portion of mass layoffs, while the West region accounted for the most initial claims for the second consecutive month.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,223 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 64 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 15, just slightly above expectations. Thus, today�s storage data will have a negligible effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 28.5
FIRST TAKE: The Philly Fed Index came in well above expectations, rebounding 15.1 points to close at 28.5 for the month of October. Overall, approximately 40% of responding firms indicated increases in overall activity, new orders and shipments.

Week Ending October 31

RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 62.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month. The UBS index of investor optimism fell 12 points to 62, reaching a 12-month low.

RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.75 Million
FIRST TAKE: Sales of existing homes surprised on the upside in September, rising by 3% from the previous month to 6.75 million annualized units. Falling mortgage rates in July and August are likely behind the renewed strength in sales. This increase is the first in three months.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.8%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence continues to edge lower. Confidence has weakened appreciably since its early summer peak. Sentiment is down across the globe, with the most pronounced decline occurring in Asia. Confidence is also off across nearly all industries. The most pronounced weakening in responses is to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions expected six months hence. While confidence has slipped, it remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales continued their downbeat ways in the week ending October 23, falling 0.6% according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Sales were reportedly strongest in the South, possibly due to replacement demand following the hurricanes. Year-over-year growth rose to 3.7%.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 92.8
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell nearly four points to 92.8 in October from 96.7 in August. The decline was led by the expectations component of the index, which was down nearly six points. Consumers' assessments of current labor markets improved modestly, although they become more concerned about the labor market outlook.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 703.9
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index decreased by 0.8% during the week ending October 22, 2004, despite another decline in fixed mortgage rates. The decline in purchase demand was deep enough to offset the solid increase in the demand for refi mortgages.

RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: New orders for durable goods rose a weaker than expected 0.2% in September, following a 0.6% decline in August. A 3.6% decline in transportation orders was the chief cause. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.7% for the month. Also, nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.6% for the month.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -11
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index held steady at -11 for the second straight week. Another decline in the personal finances component offset a stronger read on the economy.

RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,206,000
FIRST TAKE: Sales of new homes surprised on the upside, with the pace of sales reaching 1.206 million units in September, well ahead of expectations. This gain puts the pace of sales 3.5% above the August pace. However, Census revised downward August's reading. Strong demand fueled by falling mortgage interest rates is boosting sales.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 283.4 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks showed a sizable increase during the week ending October 22. Motor gasoline stocks also recorded a sizable build, while distillate stocks showed a sizable draw due to strong demand. Overall, today�s inventory should have a bearish effect on crude oil and gasoline, while the rally in heating oil will continue.

RELEASE: Creditforecast.com Quarterly Household Credit Repo [United States]: 16.2%
FIRST TAKE: Households continued to borrow aggressively in the third quarter of 2004. Growth was led by mortgage borrowing which accelerated to over 20% (y/y). Auto and consumer finance borrowing growth slowed while credit card borrowing growth accelerated, though it remains weak. Credit quality was little changed in the quarter. Credit quality improved in the quarter for bankcard loans but deteriorated for auto loans. An improving job market is supporting credit quality while higher short term interest rates and aggressive borrowing are constraints.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 350,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims rose to 350,000 last week, far above consensus estimates, which called for a total of 338,000 new claims. Claims for the week ending October 16 were revised up by 1,000 to 330,000. Continuing claims rose above 2.8 million, to 2.823 million although the prior week's claims were revised down to 2.785 million.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 36
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board's help wanted index dipped one point in September to a reading of 36. It has now retreated to its cyclical nadir. In the last three months, help wanted advertising has declined in eight of the nine U.S. regions.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,249 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 26 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 22, short of the expected build of 36 Bcf. However, the bearish momentum contained in today�s data due to the surprise will be limited as overall storage is ample.

RELEASE: Employment Cost Index [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Employment costs accelerated by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2004, in line with our forecast. Benefit cost increases continue to lead the charge, accounting for about 40% of the increase in total costs, but lower than in the first two quarters. Wage cost growth accelerated slightly. Low wage costs suggest persistent weakness in the labor markets, and soaring benefit costs remain a serious concern to employers.

RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 3.7%
FIRST TAKE: Real gross domestic product rose at a 3.7% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates. This is up from 3.3% growth during the second quarter. Key drivers of growth during the quarter were the 4.6% advance in consumer spending, 14.9% jump in capital equipment spending, 1.5% growth in government expenditures and a 3.1% increase in residential investment.

RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 313.7
FIRST TAKE: The New York City economy improved again in October, but at a slower pace than proceeding months. The Business Conditions index (BCI) expanded roughly 1.0% from one month prior and now stands at 313.7.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 91.7
FIRST TAKE: The sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for October turned out to be an aberration as nearly tow-thirds of the decline was eliminated in the final release. Nonetheless, the index dropped 2.5 points from September to 91.7. Consumers� assessment of the outlook fell while views of current conditions increased marginally from September. Both components rose from their preliminary values.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 68.5
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI posted a huge gain in October, rising to 68.5 compared to the consensus, which called for a slide to 59. Today's report should raise expectations for the much-anticipated ISM release on Monday.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 130.6
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) declined to -1.4% for the week ending October 22. This comes as the index�s level dropped from 131.6 to 130.6.

RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: -3.5%
FIRST TAKE: The aggregate prices received index for farm commodities fell 3.5% in October, marking the fifth straight month of decline. The composite indices for crops and livestock products fell 5.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Producers received higher commodity prices for vegetables and fruits while corn, soybeans, hogs and broilers all fetched lower prices.

Damn! Anyone catch the October jobs report?! HUGE! And a big positive revision to September as well.

quote:

Originally posted by Shakka Damn! Anyone catch the October jobs report?! HUGE! And a big positive revision to September as well.

It is a good jobs report however, the numbers are somwhat inflated by the hurricanes that hit Florida. At least 71,000 of those jobs are new construction jobs to clean up and rebuild the state. As such, I would be wary of a false positive. Considering the number of jobless claims for the month, I would hold off on the celebration until we get another good month or two.

quote:

Originally posted by occrider It is a good jobs report however, the numbers are somwhat inflated by the hurricanes that hit Florida. At least 71,000 of those jobs are new construction jobs to clean up and rebuild the state. As such, I would be wary of a false positive. Considering the number of jobless claims for the month, I would hold off on the celebration until we get another good month or two.

True. But definitely heading in the right direction. They blew away expectations of 175K by 162K, so even if 71K were hurricane related, you still got a 91K bonus. Not to mention the prior month was revised upward to 139K from 96K. In any event, 1 month does not make a trend, but it's clearly a positive step. I would've been much more wary of the numbers had they come out a week ago, but with the election now behind us, I tend to be a bit more optimistic about them.

taken from The Australian Financial Review Nov 10:


Bleak forecast for US economy
Nov 10
Chris Wright


"It was a good one to lose." So says one Australian commentator on the US election, painting a bleak picture of the year ahead that suggests investors would be well advised to keep their funds as far from the country as possible.

Jonathan Pain is chief investment strategist at HFA Asset Management, and has previously been chief investment officer of Rothschild Australia Asset Management and chair of Paribas Asset Management's London-based international asset allocation committee. He's a contrarian - indeed, he's on the road being contrary in various locales around Australia this week, and his views on the US economy are no exception.

His view, to put it bluntly, is that America's economy is in a mess, for several reasons.

One is the extraordinary level of fiscal and monetary accommodation that has been applied to the US economy since September 11, with a $US200 billion surplus turning into a more than $US300 billion deficit in three years, and historically low interest rates, quite apart from the record current account deficit. "If we acknowledge that we have been witness to the mother of all stimulations, we have to ask ourselves what is next - and if we accept that we have to see a reversal in those same stimulatory dynamics, then we must surely agree the global economy will slow."

American consumers have also enjoyed the benefits of withdrawing equity from their homes as house prices have risen - it's difficult to quantify but Mr Pain puts the figure at about $US400 billion in three years. That level of withdrawal, which has been another form of stimulus, is now falling. Also, much of the capital expenditure tax relief that the Bush administration granted to US companies runs out at the end of this year. "Lots of firms are front running that by making purchases this side of the year end."


Then there's oil. Mr Pain sees no good reason for the oil price to drop much in the long term, citing the motorisation of China as an example of the changing demand side of the equation. China had six cars per thousand people in 2002 and 11 by the end of 2003, he says; the US has about 500.

"I'm not suggesting China's going to 500 in the next decade, but if it went to 50, a fraction of car ownership in the Western world, consider the implications for oil. The world is already consuming as much as it possibly can, Saudi Arabia is at its full production tilt.

"For people who say 'this price rise doesn't count, it's driven by speculation' - that's nonsense. Every market in the world moves on speculation. And people say, 'In 1973 in real terms oil prices were much higher.' I don't care! You don't say: I don't mind paying $1.15 a litre because in 1973 it was relatively more expensive, do you?"

And this is all without talking about al-Qaeda or other external shocks. The net result of this pessimistic view is that where many economists expect up to 4 per cent growth in the US next year, Mr Pain expects 1 per cent. Hence his conclusion that last week's election was a good one to lose. "Whoever occupies the Oval Office is faced with a shocking menu of problems."

So what should investors conclude from all this? Not to invest in the US markets, presumably - and, since the currency is the one form of economic stimulus still available to that country, any unhedged gains there could be cancelled out by a falling US dollar.

But Mr Pain isn't bearish on everywhere, and in particular he isn't bearish on Asia. "We are witness to the baton of economic leadership being passed from west to east."

He also thinks Australia is in a sweet spot, thanks in part to its proximity to Asia. "China has a voracious appetite for everything that's under the soil of Australia," he said. He thinks industries like tourism and real estate will also benefit enormously from Asian nations growing in affluence.

But not the US. "They've finally run out of options, and it makes me think that the most indebted nation on earth has come to the end of its path."

What I have been saying on this forum, to my friends and at University, but no one believes me. Low interest rates and excess liquidity have only postponed an inevitable crash

Week Ending November 7

RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Personal income rose 0.2% while disposable income rose 0.1% in September, after downwardly revised 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in August. Wage growth accelerated to 0.4%. Consumption grew 0.6%, led by strong growth in durable goods spending. August�s increase was revised lower. The saving rate fell to 0.2%.

RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: -0.0%
FIRST TAKE: Construction activity was weaker than expected in September, as the value of construction put in place remained virtually unchanged from August. Private residential construction declined, while private nonresidential and public sector building activity both increased in September.

RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 56.8
FIRST TAKE: The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 56.8 in October and has now declined for three straight months. Production growth slowed, but the new orders and new export orders components both increased, which should help support the index in future months.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence slipped again at the end of October. Sentiment is down across the globe since peaking in early summer. The most pronounced decline has occurred in Asia. Confidence is also off across nearly all industries. Retailers have turned notably less optimistic and weak sales are again at the top of the list of business concerns. While confidence is down, it remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.

RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales grew by 1.0% to a level of $18.4 billion in September, leaving them up 27.4% on the year. While chip sales continue to expand, recent growth has been slow relative to traditional seasonal trends. Sales growth in the Americas has been particularly weak.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales continued their downbeat ways in the week ending October 30, falling 0.3% according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Halloween sales reportedly boosted traffic and sales at some retailers, but that was not enough to boost the overall result. Year-over-year growth fell to 2.9%.

RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 101,840
FIRST TAKE: Job cuts announcements eased slightly in October, to 101,840 though this is the second consecutive months of announcements totaling more than 100,000. Cuts had averaged 71,000 during the prior seven months. Job losses were heaviest in telecom services.

RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 27%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com�s probability of recession rose in October to 27%, from September�s downwardly revised 25% level. The deterioration in consumer confidence and equity markets, and further tightening of yield spreads all contributed to the rise in risks. Overall, risk of recession remains at a stable but elevated level.

RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 16.9 Million
FIRST TAKE: Vehicle sales held up better than expected, declining to 16.9 million units seasonally adjusted annual rate, from 17.5 million units in September. A rate closer to 16.5 million was expected.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 761.7
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index increased by 8.2% during the week ending October 29, 2004. Mortgage demand is responding to a string of declines in mortgage rates that leaves the 30-year fixed rate at 5.65%, despite an increase last week. Both purchase and refinancing applications increased. The purchase index is close to record-breaking territory. The refi index is steadily gaining strength.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -5
FIRST TAKE: In an unexpected move, the ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index jumped six points to -5 to in the week ending October 31. A jump in confidence among Democrats suggests that the spike is election related. In any event, confidence stands at a nine-month high.

RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States]: -0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Factory orders declined 0.4% in September following a 0.3% decline in August. New orders for durable manufactured goods rose 0.2%, aided by a strong 9.6% increase in orders for computers and electronics equipment.

RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 59.8
FIRST TAKE: October showed a bit of rebound for the nation's service-producing industries as the ISM Non-Mfg Index came in at 59.8, besting both the consensus and Economy.com forecast. Although the index remained below the 60% mark for the third consecutive month, it indicates the service sector's expansion continues unabated.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 289.7 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a sizable build during the week ending October 29. Market expectations had called for a more moderate increase. Distillate stocks were ambiguous as the American Petroleum Institute recorded a small build while the Energy Information Administration recorded a moderate draw. Overall, today�s inventory data will be bearish for petroleum markets.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales 4.1% in October according to the ICSC chain store index, exceeding expectations and the best growth since May. Many factors including easing comparisons, more seasonal weather, and post hurricane buying contributed to the strength. Sales were not uniformly up, however, as luxury and teen retailers mostly outperformed.

RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 114
FIRST TAKE: Monster employment index based on online help wanted ads remained at 114 in October for the second month. The index has been climbing steadily throughout the year and is 21 points higher than in October 2003.

RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 1.9%
FIRST TAKE: Preliminary estimates for productivity growth show a 1.9% increase in the third quarter. This continues the trend toward slower growth that was also noticeable in the second quarter. Unit labor costs rose 1.6%, but are just 0.6% higher than last year.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 332,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims were lower than expected during the last week in October, totaling 332,000. The trend level edged down as a result. Claims for the prior week were revised up by 1,000 - to 351,000.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,293 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 44 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 29, exceeding expectations for a more moderate build of 37 Bcf. Thus, today�s inventory data should have a moderately bearish effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 337,000
FIRST TAKE: Payroll employment soared by 337,000 in October, the strongest gain in seven months. Moreover, September�s gains were revised up to 139,000 from the originally reported 96,000, and August payroll gains were revised to 198,000 from 128,000. Rebuilding efforts in the aftermath of the hurricane boosted October construction payrolls. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.5%.

RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) rose to 118.2 in October, pushing its smoothed annualized growth rate to 3.4% from 1.9% in September. As such, inflation pressures in the U.S. remain elevated. Other FIGs, which lag the U.S. figure by one month, were mixed in September, indicating no clear inflationary trend.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.0
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) improved slightly to -1.4% for the week ending October 29. This comes as the index�s level jumped from 130.4 to 132.0.

RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: 9.84 billion
FIRST TAKE: Consumer credit increased by $9.8 billion in September, up 5.8% on an annualized basis. Revolving credit grew by an annualized 10.0%, while nonrevolving credit grew by 3.4%.

Week Ending November 14

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.6%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence stabilized in early November. This comes after a steady slide in confidence throughout much of the summer and early fall. Confidence is off across the globe, with the most pronounced decline occurring in Asia. Confidence is also off across nearly all industries. Retailers have turned notably less optimistic, and weak sales are again at the top of the list of business concerns. While confidence is down, it remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.

RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 41
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity eased some in October, but remained strong in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production dropped from 48 in September to 41 in October.

RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale inventories grew 0.5% in September, slightly below expectations for a 0.7% gain. Sales advanced 0.6%, in line with the consensus.

RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 17.4%
FIRST TAKE: There was little change in the job openings and hiring rates in September. The job openings rate was unchanged at 2.4%. Similarly, the hire rate remained at 3.3%. The total separations
rate was likewise unchanged at 3.2%. The data are consistent with monthly payroll employment trends, as the August boost to payrolls of 198,000 was followed by an increase of 139,000, which was depressed mid-month by the effects of the hurricanes in the South.

RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 14
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity continued to expand in the Fifth Federal Reserve District in October, although the pace of growth slowed, consistent with national trends. The shipments index fell eight points to 14, its lowest level since July. Capacity utilization dropped 12 points and employment stagnated. However, the level of optimism about the outlook improved.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 727.3
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index declined by 4.5% during the week ending November 5, 2004. The increase is not surprising in light of the index�s surge in the previous week. Additionally, mortgage interest rates have increased for the last two weeks. Both the refi and purchase components of the index declined.

RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -7
FIRST TAKE: Consumer confidence failed to build on last week�s strong gain, with the ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index edging lower by two points in the week ending November 7. A dip in the economic and buying climate components is behind the overall decline.

RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 1.5% in October including an 11.7% increase in petroleum prices. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.2% and are 2.7% higher than a year ago. Export prices rose 0.7% due to a 1.0% increase in nonagricultural export prices.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 333,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose by 2,000, to 333,000 last week, as the prior week's claims were revised down by 1,000 to 331,000. This was well below consensus expectations. Claims are at a level that is consistent with strong labor market gains.

RELEASE: International Trade (FT900) [United States]: -$51.6 billion
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. trade deficit moderated during September. According to the BEA and Census, exports increased marginally, and imports fell to raise the balance of trade by $1.9 billion to -$51.6 billion.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 291.5 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a moderate build for the week ending November 5. Net additions to inventories were in line with expectations. Thus, today�s inventory data should have a neutral effect on petroleum markets.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,327 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 34 Bcf during the week ending November 5. Expectations had called for a more moderate build of 22 Bcf. Thus, today�s storage data should have a slightly bearish effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -57.3 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for October, the first month of fiscal year 2005, was $57 billion, close to CBO�s preliminary estimate of $58 billion. The U.S. is on track to run another large deficit in the current fiscal year.

RELEASE: FOMC Meeting [United States]: 2.00%
FIRST TAKE: As widely expected, the FOMC raised the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points to 2.00%. The committee continues to view the risks facing its growth and inflation outlooks as balanced. The statement also maintained that policy accommodation can continue to be removed at a �measured� pace.

RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales gained 0.2% in October, restrained by falling auto sales. Sales excluding autos sales rose 0.9%, the second consecutive healthy gain. Growth was led by gasoline stations and apparel stores. Core sales rose 0.5%. September�s gain was revised slightly higher.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 95.5
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for November rose by nearly four points from October, its first increase since July. At 95.5 the index is at its highest value since August, boosted by improvement in labor markets and declining energy prices.

RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories rose a modest 0.1%(m/m) in September. Sales advanced only 0.3%, and the business inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.32 from August�s 1.32. The inventory-to-sales ratio is close to a historic low and hence a further decline in the rate of stockpiling is very unlikely.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.3
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to -1.0% for the week ending November 5. This comes as the index�s level rose from 132.0 to 132.3.

Huge jump in the producer's price index today:



This is the largest jump in 14 years. Be watchful of the CPI as it comes out later this week, this could be significant warning signs of impending inflation.

Week Ending November 21

RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 19.8
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in New York state improved during November as the general business conditions index (BCI) increased from 17.4 to 19.8.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has stabilized during the past several weeks, after slipping throughout much of the summer and early fall. Sentiment has firmed across the globe, even in Asia, where it has fallen sharply since peaking this past summer. Confidence has also stabilized across nearly all industries, although retailers are notably less upbeat than they were a few months ago. Nearly all businesses say that sales are their most significant concern. Current business confidence levels are consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%.

RELEASE: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey [United States]: -21.1%
FIRST TAKE: The Fed�s October Loan Officer survey reported a further easing in terms and lending standards on C&I and commercial real estate loans. Banks reported stronger demand for both C&I and commercial real estate loans. Standards and terms on loans to households were little changed. Demand for residential mortgages and consumer loans reportedly declined, on net.
Thus, the Fed's rate hikes to date appear to have had little effect on lending standards or terms on various types of loans.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales slipped 0.4% in the week ending November 6 according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth increased modestly, to 3.4%, as comparisons eased.

RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Due largely to rapid inflation among energy products, producer prices rose rapidly at all stages of processing in October. Excluding food and energy, core prices for both intermediate and final producer goods rose by 0.3%.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 71
FIRST TAKE: Builder optimism remains strong, as low mortgage rates keep demand for homes solid. The NAHB index is flat in November at about 71. Notably, the present conditions index is moving up, while the indicators of future activity, expectations, and buyer traffic are softening.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 758.3
FIRST TAKE: Mortgage demand increased during the week ending November 12, 2004, with the MBA index rising by 4%. Driving up the index is an increase in refi activity. Purchase demand slipped.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices rose 0.6% in October including a 4.2% increase in energy prices. Excluding food and energy items, core inflation increased 0.2%, placing the annual rate of inflation for core consumer prices at 2.0%.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 2.03 million
FIRST TAKE: Residential construction increased in October, offsetting the previous month�s sharp decline. The 6.4% gain brings housing starts back up over a 2.0 million unit pace. Continued low mortgage interest rates are helping to support construction activity.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production rose 0.7% in October, increasing for the second straight month after several months of ups and downs. Increases were strong across market and industry groups. The increase in production pushed capacity utilization higher by 0.4% to 77.7%.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 292.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks increased by 800,000 barrels during the week ending November 12, according to the Energy Information Administration. The build fell short of expectations for a more sizable build. Thus, today�s data should have a moderately bullish impact on petroleum markets. The API data are unavailable for now.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 334,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 last week to 334,000, from the previous week's revised number of 337,000. Claims continue to reflect healthy labor market growth.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board�s leading indicator index fell 0.3% in October, lengthening the string of declines to five months. In addition to the decline in October, the September figure was revised to -0.3%, down from the -0.1% reported last month.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,321 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 6 billion cubic feet during the week ending November 12, just in line with expectations. Today�s inventory data will have a neutral effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 20.7
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Third District slowed down more than expected in November. This month's reading for the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 20.7, a 7.8 point drop from October.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.7
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate for the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to -0.7% for the week ending November 12. The overall level of the index rose from a revised 132.2 to 132.7.

RELEASE: Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales) [United States]: 17.6 billion
FIRST TAKE: Seasonally adjusted e-commerce sales rose to $17.6 billion in the third quarter, 4.7% above the second quarter and 21.5% better than last year. Year-over-year growth continues to slowly moderate. Internet sales' share of total retail sales excluding restaurant sales held at 1.9% in the third quarter.

Week Ending November 28

RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 69.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence increased for the first time in four months, as the overall index rose seven points to 69, up from 62 in October.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 26.0%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has leveled off during the past month. This comes after a more or less steady decline throughout much of the summer and early fall. Sentiment has firmed the most in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence remains notably soft. Confidence has also stabilized across nearly all industries, although retailers continue to become less upbeat. Sales are the principal concern of most businesses. Current business confidence levels are consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 0.8% in the week ending November 20 according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth increased modestly, to 3.9%, its best showing since the start of July.

RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.52
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed National Activities Index rose to +0.52 in October, a sharp contrast from its -0.04 value in September, suggesting strong economic growth, but also rising inflationary pressures.

RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.75 Million
FIRST TAKE: Sales of existing homes remain strong in October, running at an annualized pace of 6.75 million units. This pace is about flat from September sales. A post-hurricane rebound in the South is holding up sales, however, as sales are declining in all other regions.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 715.0
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages declined during the week ending November 19, 2004, with the MBA index decreasing by 5.7% to 715. Both the refi and purchase components of the index fell.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 323,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 323,000 last week, declining by 13,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, has returned to its pre-recession level.

RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: -0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October with declines in most categories. Some of the losses partly reversed solid advances in the previous month in this extremely volatile series. Shipments were up 0.6% in October; unfilled orders advanced 0.9%--the 14th consecutive gain; and inventories were up 0.5%.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 92.8
FIRST TAKE: Consumer sentiment improved by one point, to 92.8 at the end of November, but fell well short of the consensus expectation of 96. Both parts of the index, expectations and current conditions, rose modestly.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 37
FIRST TAKE: Help wanted advertising rose by one point in October, to a reading of 37. A reading of 36 marked the low cyclical point, up from which advertising volume has had trouble rebounding. Given the strong October employment report, the usefulness of this gauge is questionable.

RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,226,000
FIRST TAKE: New single-family home sales tracked a 1.226 million annualized pace in October, up 0.2% from the upward revised September rate; sales were up 7.4% from a year before. Inventory of new homes available for sale posted the fourth consecutive monthly increase and now stands at 412,000 units; at 4.1 months, the months supply remains tight.

RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States]: 1,241
FIRST TAKE: Employers initiated 1,241 mass layoff events involving 127,774 workers in October. The manufacturing industry continues to account for the largest portion of mass layoffs, while the West region accounted for the most initial claims for the third consecutive month.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 292.4 MB
FIRST TAKE: The Energy Information Administration reported a build in commercial crude oil stocks and distillate stocks for the week ending November 19. Today�s data should have a slightly bearish effect on petroleum markets. Data by the American Petroleum Institute are expected shortly.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,272 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 49 billion cubic feet during the week ending November 19. The draw was steeper than anticipated; markets had expected a draw of only 11 Bcf on average. Thus, today�s data should provide some bullish momentum for natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 2.1%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales grew by 1.5% to a level of $18.8 billion in October. Sales growth was seen in all regions excluding Japan, with the most rapid growth occurring in Europe and the Americas.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.7
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 0.1% for the week ending November 19. This comes as the index�s level rose from 132.6 to 132.7.

Week Ending December 5

RELEASE: Bankruptcy Filings [United States]: -3.9%
FIRST TAKE: Personal bankruptcy filings continued their descent in the third quarter, posting their fourth consecutive decline in year-over-year bankruptcy filings. Business bankruptcy filings fell at a double digit rate for the fourth time in the past five quarters, the only exception being the first quarter when a surge was caused by multiple filings by one company.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 112,000
FIRST TAKE: The weak payroll number for number of 112,000 was indeed a surprise. Gains of more than 200,000 were expected. Not only were the November numbers weak but the totals for the prior two months were revised down. The weakness were evident across industries. The jobless rate nonetheless declined to 5.4% as the household survey again went a different direction from the payroll survey.

RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. future inflation gauge (FIG) increased half a point to 118.6 in November, aided by increased borrowing and sustained job growth. In the rest of the world, where the data lag the U.S. by one month, the FIGs for most regions increased in October, with the exception of Japan. The increase in the euro-zone was especially sharp, lead by increases in Spain and Germany.

RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 61.3
FIRST TAKE: The ISM Non-Mfg index gained 1.5 points, climbing to 61.3 for the month of November. This marks the index's first month above the 60% threshold since July.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.3
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) finished the week ending November 26 largely unchanged. The index declined slightly to 132.3 and the growth rate was flat at 0.1%.

RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 117
FIRST TAKE: The Monster Employment Index rose by three points to 117 in November. A year ago it stood at 88. The strong reading bodes well for the November employment report to be released tomorrow.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 349,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims jumped by 25,000 to 349,000 last week. This was well above the consensus expectation. The surprising jump could be attributed to difficulty seasonally adjusting during the week of the Thanksgiving holiday. Continuing claims fell another 20,000 during the week ending November 20.

RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Factory orders increased 0.5% in October, easily beating expectations for a smaller gain. A strong increase in nondurable new orders more than offset declining durable goods orders. Additionally, the September figure was revised upward enough to produce a slight gain instead of the decline previously reported.

RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 20%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com�s probability of recession moderated further in November to 20.2%, from October�s downwardly revised 21% level. The improvement in equity markets and easing jobless claims are supporting the economy and lowering recession risks. Persistent tightening of yield spreads and falling consumer confidence are putting upward pressure on recession risks. The risk of recession remains at a stable but elevated level.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,299 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 5 billion cubic feet during the week ending November 26, a smaller decline than expected. In addition, the Energy Information Administration revised upward the storage numbers for the week ending November 19. Thus, today�s data should have a bearish impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a very weak 1.7% in November, well below expectations, according to the ICSC chain store index. Sales were below expectations for a wide range of retailers. High energy prices and concerns about outlook were among the factors hurting sales. Luxury retailers continued to post mostly better than average results.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 673.3
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages declined during the week ending November 26, 2004, with the MBA index decreasing by 5.8% to 673. The refi component fell sharply, while the decline in the purchase index was more modest.

RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Personal and disposable income rose 0.6% in October, after growing 0.2% in September. This was the fastest growth since May for personal income and April for disposable income. Wage growth accelerated to 0.5%. Consumption grew 0.7%, led by strong growth in nondurable goods spending. The saving rate fell to 0.2%.

RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 57.8
FIRST TAKE: The ISM manufacturing index recovered some lost ground in November, increasing 1.0 points to 57.8. A large increase in the new orders index contributed the most to the November increase and is an encouraging sign for future production.

RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: 0.0%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending remained virtually unchanged in October, failing to match expectations for a modest pickup in building activity. Both private residential and nonresidential construction slipped this month while public sector construction spending showed a strong gain. The initial estimate for September was revised upward slightly to show a 0.1% gain.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a sizable build during the week ending November 26, according to the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration while distillate fuel oil stocks rose more sharply than expected. Thus, today�s inventory data should have a significantly bearish impact on petroleum markets.

RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 16.4 Million
FIRST TAKE: As expected, vehicle sales declined in November to 16.4 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down from 16.9 million in October. Sales held up somewhat better, however, than expected. Sales of Big Three brands weakened more than international brands.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.4%
FIRST TAKE: After falling more or less throughout much of the summer and early fall, business confidence has stabilized in recent weeks. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%. Attitudes have improved a bit in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence remains notably soft and is still weakening. Confidence is strongest among high-tech companies and manufacturers. Retailers are notably less upbeat. The decline in confidence since the summer peak is largely due to softer sales growth.

RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 319.3
FIRST TAKE: The New York City economy regained momentum in November as the Business Conditions Index (BCI) expanded roughly 1.7% from one month prior and now stands at 319.3.

RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,745.0
FIRST TAKE: Gross employment flows for the first quarter of the year confirm the firming of the labor market. Gross jobs gains rose during the first quarter of the year to 7.745 million - the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2002 and up by 100,000 from the fourth quarter of 2003. Meanwhile, gross job losses inched up to 7.31 million. Layoff activity has fallen off dramatically since peaking at 9.13 million during the third quarter of 2001.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 90.5
FIRST TAKE: Consumer confidence dropped unexpectedly to 90.54 in November, from 92.89 in October. Consensus estimates called for a measurable increase. While the assessment of current conditions rose to 95.25, from 93.96, the expectations component of the index fell by 4.79 points to a reading of 87.4 - its lowest value since July 2003.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 65.2
FIRST TAKE: November's Chicago PMI came in at 65.2, beating consensus expectations. Nevertheless, this is a decline from last month's stellar figure.

RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: The index covering prices received for agricultural commodities increased 0.9% in November. Farmers saw higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, hogs, strawberries and grapes. By contrast, prices dropped for lettuce, oranges, soybeans, corn and cattle.

Week Ending December 12

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 1.7% in the week ending December 4, the second consecutive sharp decline, according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth increased, to 3.3%, as comparisons eased due to severe winter weather in the Northeast in the comparable week last year.

RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Third quarter productivity was revised downward to 1.8%, a decline of 0.1% from the preliminary reading. Both output and hours were revised upward, but the increase in hours was greater, producing the slower rate of productivity growth. Also, unit labor costs were revised upward and now rose 1.8% in the third quarter.

RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 104,530
FIRST TAKE: Announced job cuts, as tracked by Challenger, exceeded 100,000 for the third consecutive month. In November, cuts totaling 104,530 were announced. While cuts, which are not seasonally adjusted, generally increase during the fall months, the recent pattern is nonetheless disturbing.

RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $7.7 billlion
FIRST TAKE: October consumer credit rose by $7.7 billion. Nonrevolving credit led the gain growing at a 6% annual rate, while revolving credit grew 1.8%.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 696.2
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages increased during the week December 3, 2004, with the MBA index rising by 3.4% to 696. The refi component continues to fall, however; the strength is solely on the purchase index side.

RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 18.0%
FIRST TAKE: JOLTS data reflect the strong employment numbers for October. The number of available jobs relative to the employment base rose to its highest rate of the recovery - 2.5% in October. Hire rates have trended flat this year but inched up to 3.3% in October, while the separation rate was unchanged - driving up the net numbers.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: Inventory data are mixed, but should have a neutral impact on petroleum markets overall. Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a moderate build during the week ending December 3 according to the American Petroleum Institute and according to the Energy Information Administration, while gasoline stocks recorded a sizable build. The data differ on distillate fuel oil stocks. While the API reported a decline, the EIA reported a sizable build.

RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 0.2% in November as non-petroleum import prices surged 0.7% and more than offset a 2.6% decline in petroleum import prices. Export prices rose 0.3% overall and 0.4% when volatile agricultural products are omitted.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 357,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims rose for a second week, to a reading of 357,000, well above consensus estimates. Rather than signaling a shift in labor market conditions, the increase is attributed to seasonal factors. Continuing claims rose to just under 2.8 million during the last week of November.


RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale inventories grew 1.1% in October, handily beating expectations for a 0.5% gain. Sales surged 1.6% during the month, and the September figure was adjusted upward by 0.2%. The I/S ratio held steady at 1.15.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,211 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 88 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 3. The draw was slightly larger than expectations, which had called for a draw of 72 Bcf. Thus, today�s inventory data should have a moderately bullish impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.5% in November, surpassing expectations. Much of the monthly increase was due to higher energy prices. Excluding food and energy, finished good prices rose by only 0.2%, in line with what was expected. Inflation remains rapid at earlier stages of processing.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 95.7
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for December rose by nearly three points from November, its biggest increase since June. At 95.7, the index is at its highest value since August, boosted by improvement in labor markets and declining energy prices.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.0
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) expanded again during the week ending December 3, up to 133 from 132.4 one week prior. The index's growth rate also increased, from 0.2% to 0.4%.

RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$57.9 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for November was $58 billion, slightly larger than CBO�s preliminary estimate of $57 billion. Through the first two months of fiscal year 2005 the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $115 billion.

A good long term analysis of the effect of reckless deficit spending:

The cost of borrowing

Dec 15th 2004
From The Economist Global Agenda


The Federal Reserve has raised American interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point�its fifth hike this year. Will the federal government now do something about the cost of its borrowing?


UNLIKE most of George Bush�s White House team, for whom economics is a slave to politics, Gregory Mankiw, head of the White House�s Council of Economic Advisers, labours hard to square the president�s economic policies with sound economic theory. �When I wrote my first economics textbook,� he said in a speech earlier this month, �I told students to keep an eye on three indicators of economic performance: gross domestic product, inflation and the unemployment rate.� By these standards, he pointed out, the American economy is doing admirably.

The Federal Reserve seems largely to agree. On Tuesday December 14th, it raised interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point to 2.25%, its fifth rate hike this year (see chart). Output has kept up its �moderate pace�, it said, despite recent rises in energy prices. Inflation remains �well-contained�, and the jobs market continues to improve, albeit gradually. The Fed thus saw no reason to break its measured stride towards a more neutral rate of interest.


The Federal Reserve gives information on monetary policy. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Treasury Department give up-to-date economic statistics and indicators. The White House sets out George Bush's economic, fiscal and budget policies, and provides official figures. The Congressional Budget Office offers alternative budget projections and statistics. The Brookings Institution publishes reports on Anerice's economy, deficits and government spending.

But Mr Mankiw�s better students know that high growth and low inflation�what economists used to call �internal balance��are not the be all and end all of macroeconomics. Later chapters of their textbooks introduce them to �external balance�, and tell them also to keep an eye on the economy�s balance of payments with the rest of the world. By this standard, America�s economy has a real problem. According to figures released shortly before the Fed�s interest-rate decision, America�s trade deficit set a new record in October. In that month alone, America imported goods and services worth $55.5 billion more than those it exported.

Mr Mankiw neglected to mention this external imbalance in his speech, and the Fed�s rate-setting committee never mentions it in its statements. But it is on the minds of the committee�s members. According to the minutes of their June meeting, they mulled over staff projections of how this trade deficit might unfold and how it might unwind. Their staff hoped for a �benign� resolution, but could not rule out the possibility that restoring balance to America�s external accounts would involve �more wrenching changes�.

As the Fed�s chairman, Alan Greenspan, said in a speech in Frankfurt last month, America�s lack of external balance�its need to borrow huge sums from foreigners�reflects a lack of national savings. He bears no small responsibility for this dearth: tempting households to abjure thrift and embrace debt was part of his strategy for rescuing America from its recession. But, as he was anxious to point out, the most effective way to �augment� domestic saving is for America�s federal government to curb its borrowing.

How likely is that? On Wednesday, Mr Bush will explain his economic agenda for the next four years at a summit of economists and businessmen in Washington. He has, as he was keen to point out after his election victory, some �political capital� to spend. Unfortunately, he has rather less capital of the economic kind. The government�s budget was $412.6 billion in the red in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th.

Budget deficits, as Mr Mankiw has pointed out, �are a mechanism whereby one generation of taxpayers passes the buck for its spending on to future generations�. That is why they are so insidious economically, and so attractive politically. Politicians can pass the buck for their spending on to some future generation, on whose votes they do not rely.

Mr Mankiw and his boss in the White House no longer have to worry about facing the voters. Thus the president�s budget proposal for this fiscal year showed somewhat tighter fists. He requested only $388 billion for discretionary spending, excluding homeland security and defence�an increase of just 1% over the previous year. Once the cost of guns is added to the cost of butter, the deficit for this fiscal year should come to about $350 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, according to Goldman Sachs, an investment bank.

But Goldman Sachs warns of a �false dawn�. Medicare, America�s government-financed health-care programme for the aged, will start shelling out for seniors� prescription drugs from 2006. Defence spending may not stop at 4% of GDP, as the government�s forecasters predict, but head up towards Reagan-era levels of 5-6%. And America�s politicians are unlikely to allow the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was meant to apply only to the highest earners, to ensnare ever greater numbers of taxpayers. Besides, though Mr Bush does not have to face the voters again, his allies in Congress do. Thus the fists may soon start to loosen on domestic spending. Congress is already pushing for an extra $62 billion to be added to next year�s transportation bill, which traditionally provides ample opportunities to roll out the pork-barrels in the name of building highways.

According to William Gale and Peter Orszag of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, America�s budget deficits are likely to average about 3.5% of GDP for the remainder of the decade. As the government continues to gobble up America�s scanty savings, it will crowd out the investment on which America�s prosperity depends. By 2014, reckon Messrs Gale and Orszag, the deficits will have reduced America�s wealth by roughly 20-30% of GDP. That is no good in anyone�s textbook.
http://www.economist.com/agenda/dis...tory_id=3494519

Week Ending December 19

RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales gained 0.1% in November, restrained by falling auto sales. Sales excluding autos rose 0.5%. Growth was led by building supply stores, gasoline stations and nonstore retailers. Core sales rose 0.5%. October�s gain was revised substantially higher, largely due to a smaller decline in auto sales than earlier reported.

RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories were up a tepid 0.2% in October, following a downward revised unchanged reading for September. Retail inventories declined 0.6% due to a sharp 2.3% plunge in auto inventories.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 28.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has taken on a somewhat brighter hue in the past several weeks. Attitudes have improved in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence, which had tumbled this fall, also appears to be reviving. Confidence is strongest among high-tech companies and manufacturers. Retailers are notably less upbeat. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding just above its potential of 3% real GDP growth.

RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 44
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District rebounded in November, following a slight easing during the previous month. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production rose to 44 from 41 in October.

RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 29.9
FIRST TAKE: The manufacturing industry continues to boom in New York state. According to the NY Fed, the general business conditions index (BCI) increased from 18.9 to 29.9, far surpassing expectations of a much more modest increase.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.9
FIRST TAKE: Reports on commercial crude oil and distillate fuel oil inventories for the week ending December 10 are contradictory, but should have a neutral impact on petroleum markets. The Energy Information Administration reported a marginal draw in crude oil stocks and flat distillate inventories, while the American Petroleum Institute reported a build in crude oil stocks offset by a sizable draw in distillate stocks.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 71
FIRST TAKE: Builder optimism remains strong, as low mortgage rates keep demand for homes solid. The NAHB index is flat in December at about 71. The present conditions index remains flat, while the indicators of future activity, expectations and buyer traffic, are improving.

RELEASE: Current Account [United States]: -$164.7 billion
FIRST TAKE: The balance on the U.S. current account fell again in the third quarter, though not by as much as feared. According to the BEA, the current account balance fell just $300 million during Q3 to -$164.7 billion. The balance on trade in goods and services declined, while the surplus on income increased. Given the high oil prices during the quarter, the Q3 report qualifies as an upside surprise for the moderate deterioration in the balance.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 317,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims came down again last week to 317,000, following two weeks that were distorted by seasonal factors. Claims for the prior week were revised up by 3,000, to 360,000. Thus, the four-week moving average of 337,750 provides a better measure of underlying conditions. Continuing claims also fell in the week ending December 4, to 2.737 million.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.77 million
FIRST TAKE: Residential construction slowed in November, and the fall-off was far sharper than anticipated with housing starts dropping by 13% to 1.771 million annualized units. Census revised upward slightly October starts. The slowing is quite broad-based, indicating that the housing market may finally be showing signs of wear.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,150
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 61 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 10. The draw was slightly smaller than anticipated. Markets had expected a draw of 66 Bcf. Thus, today�s storage report will have a slightly bearish impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 29.6
FIRST TAKE: Third District manufacturing activity picked up momentum in December as the topline survey from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 29.6. The increase went against expectations for a slower pace of expansion and reverses last month's large drop.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices rose 0.2% in November, exceeding expectations for a smaller gain. Energy prices rose, despite the decline in crude oil prices and expectations for a decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation also increased by 0.2%, raising the annual rate of core inflation to 2.2%.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.6
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) expanded again during the week ending December 10, up to 133.6 from 133.0 one week prior. The index�s growth rate increased as well, from 0.5% to 0.8%.

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