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-- Bird flu 'could kill 150m people'
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Posted by tiesto14 on Oct-06-2005 00:45:

quote:
Originally posted by killingjoke

7) lesbian and gay rights- affects the birthrate tremendously!!!!!!!!
cannot stressed it enough.

9) poor moral values- which leads to premarital sex- point 4





you are insane!!


Posted by tiesto14 on Oct-06-2005 00:48:

The same crap figures they are saying about this flu thing reminds of when i used to watch the news when AIDS started.....figures are about the same.


Posted by Gmoney part II on Oct-06-2005 01:36:

Yes, I have a question. First of all, I have no belief in this bird flu nonsense. Most birds are annoying anyway. Anyway, my question is this: what is to stop other diseases from becoming airborne? Like take the HIV example. How do we know that HIV won't mutate so it becomes airborne? Actually, I was thinking about this the other day. Why don't they take someone with HIV and then pump blood out of them while replacing it with blood from a donor? That way the blood with the low white cell count will be gone and it can be replaced with blood with a normal cell count. That way a person's immune system would never get weaker.


Posted by NeoPhono on Oct-06-2005 03:42:

quote:
Originally posted by Gmoney part II
Yes, I have a question. First of all, I have no belief in this bird flu nonsense. Most birds are annoying anyway. Anyway, my question is this: what is to stop other diseases from becoming airborne? Like take the HIV example. How do we know that HIV won't mutate so it becomes airborne? Actually, I was thinking about this the other day. Why don't they take someone with HIV and then pump blood out of them while replacing it with blood from a donor? That way the blood with the low white cell count will be gone and it can be replaced with blood with a normal cell count. That way a person's immune system would never get weaker.


There is always the possibility of a mutation allowing AIDS/HIV to become airborn, but it is very unlikely. At this point, the virus is very weak when it is not inside a host. Outside of the body, the AIDS/HIV virus can only last a few minutes, if that. That's why you can't get AIDS from a toilet seat or sharing an old straw or something like that. An airborn disease has to be pretty tough in order to make it from one host to another using only air as its living environment in between.

As far as transferring white blood cells go, you have to realize that white blood cells are person-specific. If you take my white blood cells, and put them in you, they're going to think your body is a foreign substance and attack it. When you recieve a blood transfusion, it is irradiated and immune system cells are reduced. I guess there may be some way to get around it in the future, but that would only be treating a symptom, not the actual disease, and I'm not sure how long you could support a 1:1 transfer ratio of "healthy" blood to immunocompromised blood.

It's like taking Tylenol when you have an infection. It lowers your fever, but does nothing to get rid of the infection. (In fact, unless it's dangerously high, a fever is a good thing to have when you have an infection)


Posted by Yoepus on Oct-06-2005 04:46:

quote:
Originally posted by NeoPhono
Why is this? Simple, if you have a low population density an extremely virulant disease tends to kill itself off as it kills off hosts. However, in an area of high population, these "super" viruses are able to spread to new hosts before they themselves die off. It's a pretty sad, yet logical situation.

Okay, I think that's enough for now. Let me know if there are any questions.


+1 Good post.

This is why I would always get sick once ayear when going to school and living in dorms with hundreds or thousands of other students (new mutation each year). But then I had immunity to the "common cold" for a while...



I wanted to bring into this thread a side note. It has been a recent revelation of biologist/scientist that the reason why life indeed exists (why does life force itself to reproduce? die and reproduce? why can't life just live? live longer? what is the point to it all?) is because of such diseases. Viruses can mutate so quickly that they have "forced" to other life to accept the adaptibility afforded by evolution as the shelter to ensure its survival.


Posted by Gmoney part II on Oct-06-2005 05:00:

I would just like to bring up something that you might find interesting. I just read the BBC NEWS article about this 150 million people dying from the bird flu nonsense.



Here is what is says in the article:


But the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from the figure.

The WHO spokesman on influenza, Dick Thompson, told a news conference in Geneva that the WHO's official estimate of the number of people who could die was between two million and 7.4 million.


Just because some assclown decides to state that 150 million people are going to die from the bird flu doesn't make it true. What if tommorrow I went on CNN and claimed that I had evidence that 1.5 billion are going to die from the flu.


Posted by ogvh5150 on Oct-07-2005 01:52:

That number they claim is so counter argumentative. Do they have any figures on which of the global population is going to get hit the worst? Is it going to affect 150 million chinese or asians? Is it going to affect 10 million africans? 60 million americans?

Like I've said before they are willing to create a situation to herd the population into their next agenda.

Theres 6 billion people on the planet. There are some who believe that this planet should "stabilize" at 500 million. Question is just who are these 500 million going to be?

Georgia Guidestones




NeoPhono:

Could this recombination be done in a lab setting?


Posted by NeoPhono on Oct-07-2005 13:16:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
NeoPhono:

Could this recombination be done in a lab setting?


I wouldn't go as far as saying it would be impossible, but it would sure be difficult. You'd first have to find the gene that allows the virus to bind to receptors on human cells, and then successfully transplant that to the virus you wanted to make harmful to humans. It would be a tough task, yet I'm sure given enough time, money and patience, it would probably be possible.

Nature has a much easier time in that it can mutate and recombine as much as it wants until it finds a virus that is successfully harmful to humans. It doesn't hurt that the generation times for pathogens are so short.


Posted by Gmoney part II on Oct-07-2005 17:08:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150

Theres 6 billion people on the planet. There are some who believe that this planet should "stabilize" at 500 million. Question is just who are these 500 million going to be?

Georgia Guidestones
?



I could tell you who these people should be but that would get me perma-banned again.

What they should do is create some kind of race of flying monkey-like creatures that are immune to the flu that can kill all these infected birds.( ala The Island of Dr Moreu). But of course then the monkey-creatures might cause problems of their own. Hey, if you really want to see something scary, read about the


Marburg virus :

They had outbreak of it in a village in Angola a little while ago. It has a 90% fatality rate.

"
After an incubation period of 5-10 days, the onset of the disease is sudden and is marked by fever, chills, headache, and myalgia. Around the fifth day after the onset of symptoms, a maculopapular rash, most prominent on the trunk (chest, back, stomach), may occur. Nausea, vomiting, chest pain, a sore throat, abdominal pain, and diarrhea then may appear. Symptoms become increasingly severe and may include jaundice, inflammation of the pancreas, severe weight loss, delirium, shock, liver failure, and multi-organ dysfunction."


Year(s)
2004-2005


Angola Country


Uige Province, Angola


313 as of May 6, 2005 Reported no. of human cases


280 (89) as of May 6, 2005 Reported no.(%) of deaths among cases


Posted by ogvh5150 on Oct-07-2005 21:06:

quote:
Originally posted by Gmoney part II
I could tell you who these people should be but that would get me perma-banned again.


It's more of a luciferian agenda masked by religious undertones such as the new age movement, gnosticism or atheism for examples. To say it's a specific race or nation is what they want you to think so you can blame someone like the Jews when it is not them but an unseen enemy.

Look at it this way. It's about divide and conquer from within.

If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.
Sun Tzu
The Art of War

The clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him.
Sun Tzu
The Art of War


Thesis + Anti-Thesis = Synthesis

Two steps forward one step back gets you one step closer towards your goal.


Posted by metalgearsolid on Oct-07-2005 21:44:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150

Two steps forward one step back gets you one step closer towards your goal.
You forgot to quote this comment; who said it?


Posted by ogvh5150 on Oct-07-2005 22:15:

It's one of those phrases I've picked up from someone somewhere.


Posted by Gmoney part II on Oct-16-2005 03:11:

I am going to throw some money around and get a vaccine for this thing.


Posted by St_Andrew on Oct-23-2005 12:00:

Apperently they have discovered a case of bird flue about 80 km from here


Posted by WingDing on Oct-23-2005 13:34:

....



.......












WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIEE!! BATTON DOWN THE HATCHES! ALL SYSTEMS GO! RAISE SHIELDS, KEPTIN? ERROR ERROR ERROR. CLASP ALL COCKRINGS! IT'S US VERSUS THE BIRDS NOW! I THINK THAT BIG YELLOW ONE ON TV WHO HYPNOTIZES KIDS WITH HALLUCINOGENIC SESAME SEEDS IS THE LEADER! KILL IT FIRST AND THE REST WILL TOPPLE LIKE DOMINOES OR FIDEL CASTRO AFTER A SPEECH!


Posted by ogvh5150 on Oct-30-2005 03:04:

Everyone is familiar with seasonal human flu, which typically affects 10-15% of the UK population each winter and leads to around 12 000 excess deaths. Although minor antigenic drift in the human influenza virus A occurs continuously, a major shift in its surface protein antigens H or N can trigger a worldwide influenza pandemic because of absence of population immunity. Fortunately, this happens only rarely—"Spanish" flu in 1918-9 (H1N1 virus) with an estimated 250 000 excess deaths in the UK, "Asian" flu in 1957-8 (H2N2) with 33 000 deaths, and "Hong Kong" flu in 1968-9 (H3N2) with 30 000 deaths. Many scientists believe that another pandemic is overdue.

Influenza A viruses also infect birds and animals, mostly pigs and horses. Avian influenza viruses do not usually infect humans, hence the grave concern when 18 human cases of influenza caused by bird-to-human transmission of AH5N1 avian influenza occurred in Hong Kong in May 1997 with six deaths.2 Given the large number of infected chickens then in the Hong Kong markets, bird-to-human clinical infection was clearly rare. Public concern waned when culling of more than 1.5 million chickens halted the epidemic.

Since 2003, however, this highly pathogenic AH5N1 virus has spread rapidly to poultry in 17 countries in Asia and Eastern Europe and is now endemic in some.3 Most of the resulting 118 human cases have been healthy young children or adults in close contact with infected flocks, with a mortality of over 50% (mostly from viral pneumonia and multiorgan failure).4 5

The lack of sustained human-to-human transmission suggests that this AH5N1 avian virus does not currently have the capacity to cause a human pandemic. But, given the known potential for antigenic shift—either from a gradual process of adaptive genetic mutation within the virus or by a snap gene reassortment with a human influenza A virus6—the virus could acquire the mechanism for rapid human transmission and cause explosive global spread, facilitated by current air travel. Pigs and humans seem to be the "mixing vessels" for genetic exchange when coinfected by both animal and human flu viruses. Close domestic proximity of fowl, pigs, and people facilitates this, a situation common in Asia.

The optimistic alternative to this apocalyptic viewpoint is that the appearance of a modified avian virus capable of triggering a human pandemic is unlikely: there have been more than 3300 flu outbreaks in birds with 150 million killed and only 118 human cases,3 5 and the disease in birds is proving containable with good surveillance and prompt action. Early mass use of neuraminidase antiviral drugs has also been recommended as a containment strategy for any local nascent human pandemic in Asia.7 So a pandemic may occur some time in the future, but not necessarily linked to bird flu.
Bird flu and pandemic flu


Posted by NeoPhono on Oct-31-2005 14:22:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
Early mass use of neuraminidase antiviral drugs has also been recommended as a containment strategy for any local nascent human pandemic in Asia.7 So a pandemic may occur some time in the future, but not necessarily linked to bird flu.
Bird flu and pandemic flu


Yeah, too bad neuraminidase protein inhibition drugs (Peramivir, CS-8958) were insuccessful at reaching the lungs in oral form testing (a pretty important location of action when talking about the flu) and intravenous testing isn't even slated until 2006. Don't get me wrong, it's a promising drug, but unless you're a lab animal, it has a long way to go before it's efficacious in humans.


Posted by ogvh5150 on Nov-07-2005 20:24:

Offer proof otherwise you're just blowing smoke.

In other news:

The "Spanish" flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919 caused the deaths of 20-50 million people worldwide including up to 675,000 in the US. While only about 1% of those infected with the virus died, it became one of the deadliest viruses ever known to man. The 1918 flu has been described as capable of sickening and killing a person on the same day. The virus is an H1N1 type A influenza. Symptoms of infection were similar to, but more severe than typical, seasonal flu. Viral pneumonia leading to acute respiratory distress was the primary cause of death. Recently, the virus was reconstituted from frozen tissue samples from a woman who died from the virus.
History: Unlike seasonal flu, where most deaths are seen in the elderly and children under 2 years old, almost half of the deaths associated with the 1918 pandemic were in adults between 20 and 40-years-old. Scientists theorize that this could be because people over the age of 40 had previously been exposed to a similar flu that gave them some immunity. As the 1918 flu spread through the United States, public gatherings were reduced to prevent infections since doctors had no way to fight the infections. However, the virus was able to cross the ocean with troops arriving to fight in Europe during World War I. Foreign troops soon became exposed to the virus and carried it back to their home countries starting new waves of infection.
Spanish Flu?: Although it is not known where the 1918 flu virus began infecting humans and transmitting from person-to-person, the US experienced its first wave of illness in the spring of 1918. It was dubbed the “Spanish” flu because Spanish newspapers published many reports of the pandemic while publications from nations involved in the World War I refrained. Some scientists think the “Spanish” flu designation might have been in error because of reports of it cropping up outside of the region before it affected the Spanish population.
It is still unclear where the virus and the pandemic originated.
Reconstituted Virus: When the 1918 flu disappeared, no samples of the virus were retained for scientific study. In 1997, however, scientists recovered fragments of the virus’s RNA genome from the preserved remains of infected people. The genome of the flu virus is composed of 8 RNA segments. Recently, scientists were able to remake 1918 flu using a technique called reverse genetics. They started by making DNA copies of the virus genome segments because DNA is easier to manipulate in the lab than RNA. Each of those copies was then placed into a larger piece of circular DNA called a plasmid. Those eight DNA circles are then put into an animal cell. The animal cell produces the proteins that correspond to the 8 segments which then form the flu virus. The technique also allows scientists to selectively manipulate individual parts of the virus when doing experiments.
Mechanism: Flu strains are named for the H and N proteins, hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, which stick out from the surface of the virus like spikes. These protein spikes allow influenza to infect and damage cells and are what the immune system recognizes. The hemagglutinin spike allows the virus to bind to and enter cells. After co-opting the cells molecular machinery to produce more viruses, the neuraminidase spike is used to escape the cell, destroying it in the process. The 1918 influenza is an H1N1 strain and research on the reconstituted virus shows that it was particularly infective and had the unusual property of being able to infect mice, which typical human influenza strains cannot.
Treatment: During the 1918 pandemic doctors did not have vaccines, antivirals, or antibiotics to treat or prevent infections and associated complications. Since then, four drugs have been developed to fight influenza infections; amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza). Tamiflu and amantadine have both been shown to be effective against engineered viruses containing the parts of the 1918 flu and vaccines have also protected mice against viruses with some of the 1918 influenza components. However, it is still unclear whether drugs or vaccines would be effective against the fully reconstituted 1918 influenza virus. Currently, the US only has 2.5 million doses of Tamiflu in its stockpile, raising concerns that we have not adequately prepared for a potential pandemic caused by avian H5N1 influenza.
(Sources: WHO, CDC, NIAID, NIH, HHS)
Biological Agent Fact Sheet-1918 (H1N1) Influenza A (PDF file)


Posted by NeoPhono on Nov-08-2005 01:36:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
Offer proof otherwise you're just blowing smoke.



Are you talking about my post?

If so...here's a nice summary.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...93483414B7FFE9F


Posted by ogvh5150 on Nov-08-2005 03:03:

Rant:
quote:
Originally posted by NeoPhono
Yeah, too bad neuraminidase protein inhibition drugs (Peramivir, CS-8958) were insuccessful at reaching the lungs in oral form testing (a pretty important location of action when talking about the flu) and intravenous testing isn't even slated until 2006. Don't get me wrong, it's a promising drug, but unless you're a lab animal, it has a long way to go before it's efficacious in humans.


Proof:

In April of 2001, Ortho-McNeil and RWJPRI notified BioCryst that they were terminating the agreement, citing the need to focus their resources on programs of a higher priority. Ortho-McNeil indicated that the decision to terminate the agreement was not related to the safety or efficacy of peramivir. Subsequently, all rights to peramivir reverted to BioCryst.
The company announced disappointing results from a Phase III clinical trial using an oral (pill) formulation of peramivir in June of 2002. Although the study suggested peramivir showed significant antiviral activity against influenza A and B, the primary endpoint did not reach statistical significance.

BioCryst is exploring opportunities related to the drug peramivir, one of a new class of antivirals, the neuraminidase inhibitors. The enzyme neuraminidase is responsible for the release of particles from infected cells. These particles then spread the disease and may also assist in spreading the virus through the mucus allowing it to escape the host through a sneeze or a cough, and infect others. By inhibiting neuraminidase, it is believed that peramivir can stop the spread of the disease - an important advance in the management of influenza. Additionally, because the active site of influenza neuraminidase is similar among different sub-types, the company believes Peramivir may be effective in the treatment and prevention of influenza regardless of the particular strain or how the virus may mutate.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Fact Sheet for Peramivir


Peramivir (BCX-1812, RWJ 270201), developed by BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., has been shown to be more potent in vitro against influenza virus than oseltamivir or zanamivir and has been highly effective in preventing illness due to influenza in mice and ferrets. Peramivir is effective for both influenza A and B.
In phase I and II human trials, peramivir was well tolerated and effective in reducing viral titers when administered orally. Phase III trials commenced in February 2000, but ongoing product development was halted due to relatively poor oral bioavailability and poor market interest in anti-influenza drugs.
Although poorly absorbed orally, animal studies have shown the drug to be very effective in a parenteral preparation. According to BioCryst, an IV/IM preparation is currently in preclinical development. The New York Times recently reported that clinical trials will start this winter.
Peramivir: Single Dose Prophylaxis for Flu?


Try to be of some help next time.


Posted by NeoPhono on Nov-08-2005 03:36:

I don't get it. Those two passages said the exact same thing I did, but in more words.


Posted by ogvh5150 on Nov-08-2005 22:53:

Sources are important otherwise you're just ranting.

Anyone can sound smart on this board by copying and pasting eloquent words.

But it's better if you can share information rather than just parrot what you think you know.

Something as serious as avian flu is not something you can boast about knowing and not share anything worthwhile than just what you pick up in your local magazine.


Posted by NeoPhono on Nov-08-2005 23:19:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
Sources are important otherwise you're just ranting.

Anyone can sound smart on this board by copying and pasting eloquent words.

But it's better if you can share information rather than just parrot what you think you know.

Something as serious as avian flu is not something you can boast about knowing and not share anything worthwhile than just what you pick up in your local magazine.


Scientific American is a "local magazine?"

I have to read publications (Scientific American, Nature, other scientific journals) to get my information. That's how what I "think I know" turns into acutal knowledge.

Sorry if I don't have time to do the actual research myself and have to read my "local magazine" to get information.

And I think the actual readiness of drugs that could potentially fight a virus is pretty worthwhile.


Posted by ogvh5150 on Nov-14-2005 23:16:

The bill (S. 1873) -- a big congressional wet kiss to the drug industry -- is dressed up in a noble-sounding title: "Biodefense and Pandemic Vaccine and Drug Development Act."
In essence, however, it would force Americans to receive inoculations against a disease that has yet to kill one of them, while removing their constitutional right to seek redress in our courts in case of injury or death from the shots because of company negligence. The proposal, now moving its way through the Senate, would also ban citizens from using the Freedom of Information Act and other popular informational laws to discover whether the new vaccine (when it is finally produced) was effective and safe, and even whether anyone had suffered adverse reactions to it.
MOUNTAIN VIEWS: FORCED INOCULATIONS BEGINNING OF BUSH'S BAD BIRD FLU PLAN


SEC. 319F-3. LIABILITY PROTECTIONS FOR PANDEMIC AND EPIDEMIC PRODUCTS AND SECURITY COUNTERMEASURES.
`(a) Authority- As provided in subsection (b), and subject to subsection (b)(1)(C), a manufacturer, distibutor, or administrator of a security countermeasure, or a qualified pandemic and epidemic product, described in subsection (b)(1)(A) or a health care provider shall be immune from suit or liability caused by or arising out of the design, development, clinical testing and investigation, manufacture, labeling, distribution, sale, purchase, donation, dispensing, prescribing, administration, or use of a security countermeasure, or a qualified pandemic and epidemic product, described in subsection (b)(1)(A).
S.1873
Biodefense and Pandemic Vaccine and Drug Development Act of 2005 (Introduced in Senate) (Search for S 1873 or by the Acts' name)


Posted by jusware on Dec-05-2005 02:32:

FYI: There hasn't been a single case of the bird flu being transmitted from human to human.


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