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-- 2024 US Election Thread? 2024 US Election Thread
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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J I wish I could share your jaunty optimism, Lira, but we're already seeing scenarios where Trump is talking about firing FBI agents or Musk is justifying gutting federal departments and authorising massive public data breaches on the grounds of hunting out vague, unproven "corruption". These are exactly the tactics we've seen in countless past dictatorships where political opponents and dissenters are dragged away on tenuous charges so quickly that the rule of fair law can't possibly be applied, and those left standing quickly become scared for their livelihood or even their freedom. In that kind of witch hunt, protecting your "reputation" quickly goes out the window for all but the most staunchly principled.

I mean, sure. I�m not saying the US is untouchable, or that it won�t take a hammering for the foreseeable future. You�re right that purges and loyalty tests are standard tactics in creeping authoritarianism, and that political fear can be corrosive in ways that aren�t immediately visible. Once enough people start worrying about their jobs, their safety, their family�s future, principle can go straight out the window. I�m not under any illusions about that.

But I think there�s a difference between Trump talking about mass purges and actually pulling them off. The problem with institutions � annoying, clunky, slow-moving as they usually are � is that they�re designed to make sudden takeovers incredibly difficult. And while executive orders will be flying right, left, and centre, the whole system is built to resist, delay, frustrate. If it wasn�t, his first term would have looked very different, wouldn't it? There�s a reason dictators tend to start with a full-on coup or a very long con instead of four years of tweeting through it.

I�m still a glass-one-third-full kind of guy, not because I think America is going to stroll out of a second Trump term without a scratch (that's impossible), but because undoing democracy isn�t like flipping a table... it�s more like trying to carve a sculpture out of jelly. You can bash away at it, but the thing keeps wobbling back into shape, and no matter how relentless the executive orders, there�ll be bureaucrats and judges and journos making life difficult in a thousand small ways. Annoying people. People who delay things. People who refuse to get with the programme. People who, frankly, might just be tired enough to say no.

Maybe I�m projecting too much from Brazil�s experience, and maybe Trump is an altogether different beast, but if our scrappy, imperfect institutions withstood Bolsonaro�s incompetence, maybe the US � problematic and bruised � will still end up as a flawed democracy after four more years rather than an entirely performative one. I�d be more worried if there was a version of Trump who was less lazy, more competent, and a little more patient, but that�s not the Fanta menace we�re dealing with. Also, a Trump-Musk fallout seems probable in the long run, and honestly, the sooner the better

I think there's a very clear difference between Trump's first term and this one. First time around he almost seemed baffled by where he'd found himself and there was a lack of structure around him. Aids and appointees were fired and replaced almost weekly. It's only when he lost the election that he belatedly shifted to trying to undermine the system.

This time around he's arrived with a much clearer sense of purpose and a pre-written statement of intent with Project 2025, and while he may well fall out with Elon Musk soon enough, pretty much on Day One he gave the guy the keys to gut the federal government. If you look at the stuff Musk is doing now under the pretext of "efficiency" and rooting out "corruption", what do you think they will do to the electoral voting system four years from now?

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J If you look at the stuff Musk is doing now under the pretext of "efficiency" and rooting out "corruption", what do you think they will do to the electoral voting system four years from now?

No, no, I totally hear you. I'm well aware this isn�t 2016 Trump, baffled by where he�s landed, surrounded by staff who don�t know if they�re supposed to be running a country or filming a reality show. This time, he�s walking in with a list: of people to fire, of departments to gut, of ways to make the whole machine work for him. And Musk, well, if his whole efficiency schtick means blowing up institutions in pursuit of "truth," imagine what that looks like when it�s the actual government instead of just X, formerly known as Twitter, formerly known as Prince, formerly known as a functioning platform. I honestly lost track of the name changes long ago

But the thing is, Trump still isn�t a planner. He�s not an ideologue. Maybe I�m underestimating him, but let�s be honest, he�s more of an egotist. He doesn�t have a grand vision of authoritarian control. He just wants everything to serve him, personally, in the moment. That makes him a generalissimo without the clonazepam � unpredictable, impulsive, and, to be fair, pretty damn lazy. Even when he had total control of Congress, he spent more time rage-tweeting than actually governing. The scary thing isn�t that he�s an efficient dictator-in-waiting � it�s that he doesn�t have the patience for a long game, which means he�ll be more erratic, more destructive, and more likely to stumble into an actual crisis without a plan to get out. A more disciplined authoritarian would be far more dangerous (thankfully, Trump has the patience of a toddler trying to load YouTube on bad wifi ).

And yeah, I get the concern about purging the federal government, but that�s not as easy as Musk gutting Twitter or X or whatever it�s called next week. Twitter is one company. The US government is massive, and there are entire layers of career civil servants who don�t answer to the White House directly. Even if he fired thousands of officials on Day One, that still leaves a bureaucracy full of people who know how to stall, resist, and leak like crazy. Project 2025 sounds terrifying on paper, and I watched the Jon Oliver episode on that too � but on paper, so did half of his first-term plans that never actually materialised. Even if he wants to bulldoze through the system, courts, lawsuits, and plain old bureaucratic inertia will slow him down. America�s government is many things, but efficient isn�t one of them, as I recall it.

And then there are elections. If democracy breaks, it�ll be because people stop believing in it, not because Trump personally hacks the system. The electoral process isn�t a single structure that can be flipped off like a switch � it�s thousands of independently run elections, state laws, local officials, and courts. He can purge federal agencies all he wants, but he still doesn�t control how votes are counted in blue states. If anything, after 2020 and the 6th of January, those officials are going to be more paranoid, more careful, and more resistant to federal overreach, not less, don�t you reckon?

But I think we can both agree that the real question isn�t just "Can Trump break democracy in four years?", but "Can he weaken it enough that the next guy finishes the job?" Because that�s how these things usually go, isn�t it? One leader smashes the windows, the next one moves in, and changes the locks

And yeah, elections (if we�re still calling them that by then) matter. I�m bracing myself for next year�s midterms because if he loses the majority in either (or both) chambers, that slows everything down. That forces him to actually negotiate instead of bulldozing his way through. That buys time. And if there�s one thing a creeping authoritarian hates, it�s waiting in line: whether at a court, a ballot box, or a McDonald�s drive-thru

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Originally posted by Lira And then there are elections. If democracy breaks, it�ll be because people stop believing in it, not because Trump personally hacks the system.

I talked about this in the thread Zharen made straight after the election result. The fact Trump convincingly won re-election tells me that the majority of American voters don't believe in the sanctity of democracy anymore. Because this is the man who tried to overturn an election result right in front of everyone's eyes, a man who incited a riot that invaded the very seat of American democracy in an attempt to overthrow that result through physical violence. Everyone saw what happened, everyone knew exactly what they were witnessing. And they still voted for him again four years later.

And, news flash, despite all the insane shit that�s happening, the motherfucker was *cheered* at the Super Bowl. I overhear conservatives in public all the time talking about how thankful they are that �Trump is in office taking care of all the dumb liberal shit�. They want this. Fuck the institutions that have stood for 250 years, they have a chance to make America white again, and they�re taking it. They don�t care what freedoms they give up along the way.

Long time listener, sigh.

Over 10 years ago I stupidity asked here which other sites you fools visit outside of here, and what do you know, someone said reddit. I wish I could travel back and time and hit myself with a 2x4, so I wouldn't be that stupid. I've become a Reddit dweeb since then and stopped coming here because it was getting way to edgy and antisemitic. Idk how many suspensions lira handed out to me for my stupidity. Reddit was a much more vibrant replacement.

However, that decade fried my head and turned me into a "libtard". I no longer think Israel is on the right side of history, and much like United States is digging its own grave among the lost to history countries and empires.

Perhaps the greatest lie we all been fed is that aliens and lizard people don't exist and are stuff of folklore. One look at Elon and Trump kinda makes it not so outlandish anymore. They're not humans, not like us. (Ha)


Well, if cryptobros believe we live in a simulation, then I might as well believe we live among the rejects and degens of lizard people, and those c*nts are hellbent on bringing about the Armageddon. I have no other explanation.

Idk where to hide from news anymore, so I came here, the only place that felt warm, while being silly and sufficiently insulated from the world outside. But as they say, you can never go home again.

Fuck maga, fuck Trump, fuck anyone who supports them for whatever reason.

I love Canada, my old and nationalistic Ukraine with all its flaws, and I hate the fucking shit that calls itself "United States". It's fucking embarrassing to be here lately and apologizing to the world. I don't know what next 4 years will bring, but I don't want to be in America to find out.

Tldr - maga are ****s, I'm sorry we failed you, world. And I wish we can go back to making tranceaddict great again

And ps. I no longer hate mnml. Fckn srs

Brejcha broke me 😁

I've never believed in the Lizard People thing, but whenever I see Peter Thiel in an interview, I start to wonder...

/or maybe he's sweating in hot anticipation over the potential harem of DOGE Youth Elon's assembled for him

I�m a lizard person

Sharks aren't lizards, brother.

The Americans don�t know that

I'm of two minds on this lately. Lira, I'm with you, I'm a long term optimist and think the US will weather this, painfully and awfully, but will survive. History is encouraging in that regard. Also, MAGA really does seem like a cult of personality. Trump can't have many more years left in him, at least as a viable head of the cult, and who's next? It can't be Vance (and Trump has said as much lately).

In the meantime, some level of collapse or incompetence-driven failure seems inevitable, with resulting loss of popular support. (Firing and trying to rehire nuclear watchdogs and bird flu experts in recent days is a good example.) The combination of tariffs, deportations, upsetting allies and adversaries alike, alienating former supporters (feds and vets who lose their jobs due to DOGE, people who start to feel threatened reductions in Medicare/Medicaid/SNAP, any number of spurned voters), inability to deliver on campaign promises like lowering inflation, continuing to make an utter mess of diplomacy re: Gaza or Ukraine with resultant isolation (US and Israel vs the rest of the world)...I just don't see how that plays out in Trump's favor long term. That's not even counting government inability to provide basic services in light of all the DOGE firings. I wonder how tax season will go? Midterms should be interesting.

At the same time, it's encouraging to see federal judges at many levels challenging and freezing the administration (and for now the administration saying they will appeal, but abide by the decisions made). I don't know that anyone with long term perspective on the GOP side wants to start impeaching judges or get a decision up to the Supreme Court with less-than-certain outcomes...certainly setting a precedent for Democrats to respond in kind in the future would not be desirable.

This bit from a column in The Guardian in the days after the inauguration has been echoing in my head, and I'm inclined to agree:

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Here is another prediction: these men will not succeed in all their schemes. They will not deport as many people as they say they will; he will not change the law as much as they pledge to; they will not, cannot, capture the institutions as completely, or bury dissent as successfully. They cannot do everything they aim to do. Because politics is not over; because our institutions are not all collapsed; and because the existing institutions are not the only methods of resistance and refusal. The Trumpist movement that ascended to power on Monday is relying on a tired, defeated America, one too diminished to do anything but submit to their demands and schemes. But the American spirit is indefatigable: it loves freedom and equality, abhors tyranny, values minding your own business and hates, above all, to be told what to do. When Trump was last in office, Americans found, at the end, that they did not like it. They will not like it now, either, and that dislike, however tardy, will have political consequences. https://www.theguardian.com/comment...american-spirit

All that being said, the other side: what damage happens in the meantime? Even if institutions survive, how many people suffer? How many years will it take for the US to recover its image (not that it was ever that great, but this seems like a recent low)? What will it look like to restore some level of faith in political systems?

Again, history is encouraging for me. If the country has seen its way through arguably worse periods of nativism, populism, and outright oppression (too many to list), not to mention the Civil War, survival and recovery looks likely. And many other countries have gone through far worse and survived, albeit at terrible cost.

I can't say that I entertain the idea we won't go down this path again in the future. It seems it's in our DNA at this point. And we seem awfully unwilling to even admit there's a problem (much less learn from our disastrous mistakes).

...

I say all that, then see the official White House account has posted this on Twitter (ASMR Deportation): https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1891922058415603980

It shouldn't be surprising or shocking at this point, but I am rendered speechless. The cruelty and dehumanization is so wanton, so callous, so casual and flippant...I really am at a loss. How much lower can we go from here? If this continues, I'd imagine his more moderate supporters (the anyone-but-Kamala types like my extended family) may finally start having real second thoughts. Maybe.

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But the American spirit is indefatigable: it loves freedom and equality, abhors tyranny, values minding your own business

Man. This could've been written in all seriousness by an American or The Onion, and I would chuckle at both.

The problem is too many people still see Trump and MAGA as some kind of aberration, and that once Trump leaves office some kind of reality can and will be restored. Trump is just the most obvious and odious manifestation of a much larger trend in the democratic West, which is an eroding of public belief in democracy and our current model of politics.

My thinking on this subject has been heavily influenced by this video by political commentator and historian Vlad Vexler, which is well worth a watch if you have 10 minutes:

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We are at the beginning stages of overt democratic decline... This [historical] tendency will exacerbate over time. That is evident. The timeframe isn't clear, but it is evident. So we can fairly comfortably talk about, in my assessment, ten and twenty years. But don't think at the end of twenty years we go back to where we were before. That's never going to happen... So in 2020 trust in America in institutions is lower than in 2016, and it's lower 2024 than in 2020, and it will be lower in 2028 than 2024. If a certain type of technocratic centrism doesn't work today because there is not enough trust, it will certainly fail to work when there is even less trust in society four years from now.

I said in the other thread, too many people on the left cosily assumed the general population would eventually turn against capitalism, whereas in actuality their frustration with "the system" is making them turn against democracy. And this is not a temporary blip. For decades now, people have intuitively understood that Red vs Blue, Democrats vs Republicans, Labour vs Conservatives, has been a charade, a system that maintains power in the hands of the elites while giving the populace a placatory illusion of choice in the matter. And this isn't just a right wing feeling. Noam Chomsky has been talking about this for decades. People didn't vote for Harris and the Democrats because they knew intuitively it wouldn't give them any notable change in the injustices and inequalities of the USA. And they are responding to that by abandoning faith in the democratic system.

So let's be clear on this. Even if Trump goes quietly in four years time, things are not going to go back to normal. His successor will try to continue what he has started, and the pillars of democracy that he has chipped away at will only be attacked further and for longer. And the public are only going to care less and less about it. Because there is nothing in the US political system to make them believe democracy is going to get any better for them.

It's not just the mistrust of democracy, it's the mistrust of academics and intellectuals.

The de-intellectualization of the world is the real problem. People care less and less about democracy because they're either too stupid to understand that they're voting against their own interests, or just totally exhausted by having to navigate myriad crises, real or fabricated. And then there's the people in the middle, who are and always have been just comfortable enough to remain complacent which is the worst kind of braindead.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it gets easier and easier to see that there is indeed a total corruption of power and democracy to the benefit of a handful of "elites", whatever the fuck that means now. The right clearly thinks its "leftist elites" and/or the intelligentsia. It's almost like they're jealous or resentful of educated folks and the real power that developing and using one's brain brings, lol.

I don't know if this is self-evident to you all (in which case I'm going to sound like a moron) or if you see this as the rambling of someone who sees Russia's hybrid campaigns everywhere, but I don't think the growing mistrust towards democracy, institutions, and everything that's made us who we are, is entirely homegrown. Russian and Chinese online actors prey on those who perceive themselves as the losers in our societies, often turning a mild disappointment at current affairs to full-blown scepticism towards everything that's effectively been holy to us. A good amount of these retards from red pill incels to MAGA people often seem to align with something that, in the end, is pro-Russia. Or at least, if they don't explicitly express their pro-Russian opinions, you can see that they subscribe to a "might is right" way of thinking, which pretty much is the Russian way of thinking. I've noticed it with many of my acquaintances that have gone through a bad break-up or divorce. They end up in some cuckoo divorce or break-up subreddit, and a few months after the break-up, if they're a certain type of person, I notice they've usually not only adopted a hostile view towards women, but among all the other anti-Western things, they've completely changed their view on the war in Ukraine, now basically spouting Russian and/or Chinese propaganda.

I was actually "undercover" on an invite-only Finnish far-right Discord server for weeks, and there were clearly accounts there who were actively trying to harness these dumbasses to basically hate their own country, the EU, and democracy. Every now and then they'd mention something about Russia, and how the "degeneracy of the West" hasn't reached Russia, and so on.

None of this is anything new I guess. I mean Russia did try to meddle in the 2016 election in Trump's favor, that much is clear, but I think that the whole MAGA movement wouldn't exist to this extent if Russia and China hadn't at least heavily stoked the fire throughout the years, Trump likely wouldn't be president, and most of the chaos we've witnessed in the past few weeks probably wouldn't have been there. From what I've seen, the average Trump voter seems quite susceptible to even the crudest, most obvious ways that foreign powers try to win them over in. Either I'm reading all the wrong things myself, or this angle isn't talked about enough in the US.

You're onto something. Have seen the same with one friend. Started out red pilling years ago. Now he's full blown anti-jew, Hitler was great except for being vegetarian, guy.

This thread is GREAT! I'm glad I'm not alone. Love seeing everyone's thoughts. Keep sharing folks

Russian (and Chinese) disinformation is certainly a factor, and not just on the right. It's not spoken about as often, but they also spread a lot of online disinformation stoking up anti-government sentiment amongst the left as well. But they're pushing against an open door. I don't believe the average American Joe would start subscribing to pro-Russian sentiments if they were happy with the way their country was being run.

Having spent a fruitless evening trying to discuss this whole situation with a few people from the US, almost all of whom said were against Trump, I am about 95% convinced that there's nothing to be done about this whole thing. There was a sense of stubborn apathy (if that makes any sense) among most of them. Some kind of a refusal to really, really care about what's happening. I guess all you can really do is go to a protest and hold up a sign, and that's it. So many seem to be convinced that nothing can really be done about this, that not one Trump-voting relative's mind can be changed anymore, that it's all downhill from here. I also am now convinced, but only because I see the people who actually could affect the situation so lethargic. That leads me to the conclusion that most of the "better half" of Americans don't really understand or feel what they could be headed towards in the coming years either. Not enough has happened yet, I guess. I don't know exactly what I expect the US population to do, but.. Expressing disapproval, voicing concerns? What is that gonna do?

They need to take one for the team and realize, if they are sensible they will need to nuke their country out of existence

Sometimes you have to ride a storm out, hunkering down while it does its damage, rebuilding after it passes.

If you want to have a victory, you have to grab it by its haunches and you gotta hump it into submission!

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Originally posted by Sykonee Sometimes you have to ride a storm out, hunkering down while it does its damage, rebuilding after it passes.

agreed. you have to let it burn and rebuild better.

Alright, time to talk about Ukraine.

It seems like the new US regime has made it clear whose side they're on. Zelensky was hoping to have an ally here, but he was shown precisely who Donald Trump was working for, and is now looking to strike a deal on minerals contracts. What is your all's take on what's going to happen here? Did Putin win by Donald Trump getting elected?

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Originally posted by ziptnf Did Putin win by Donald Trump getting elected?

Yes, especially seeing what's happening now, he absolutely did. What is unclear to me is exactly why is Trump so eager to please Putin. Because Putin called him a genius? I could imagine that working. Maybe a debt from all of his businesses in Russia? Maybe they have kompromat on him? Maybe it's all of those reasons. Gabbard � so Russia-friendly that almost no one in their right mind would appoint her as anything of national intelligence, yet there she is. Hegseth stopping that Russia-focused cyber program? Insane. It's like Russia sent Trump a list of people they'd like to see in each position, and Trump went ahead and did what was asked.

Some news outlets have entertained the idea that Trump is motivated by a possible Nobel Peace Prize for bringing peace to Ukraine. I think this is entirely possible. Putin gets to dictate the terms and when peace is brokered to a degree, but he's promised Trump to agree to peace in the near future. Maybe Pumpkin Chops rebuffed Zelenskyy because Putin asked for more time to push further west in Ukraine? Maybe Trump and Putin disagreed on how to divide Ukraine and decided to get back to it later? Maybe it's just competing bids coming in behind the scenes and Trump is waiting for the best one. Anyway, there was a fair bit of Russian theater in the mix last Friday.

As has been said a few times in the recent days, Europe really needs to kick things into high gear as soon as possible, and the threat of the US completely abandoning NATO must be taken seriously. It would be "an incredibly dumb move from the US's perpective", but I'm not gonna put it past Trump to at least try. Most countries on the continent are incapable of defending themselves. There's simply no excuse for that anymore, and I welcome the idea of some sort of "Fortress Europe". I've long been deeply disappointed in much of the EU when it comes to defence, and in that sense I see something positive in Trump's presidency. If this lunacy can whip Europe into shape, I will rejoice. The problem is that you don't build that fortress overnight. Unfortunately I can also imagine a few EU leaders letting out a "phew" and going back to their old, useless selves in case Trump stops hinting at leaving NATO.

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