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-- World Cup 2026
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Respect to Mexico. It's tough to accept the loss, but they deserved the win.

Expected better from Australia. Still not sold on the US team, but maybe that's me being a hater. I just can't get behind them.

Staying up for Scotland/Moracco. Hope it's better than this snoozefest. Wife's dad's side is all Scots so we're hype for it.

quote:

Originally posted by Mattsanity Respect to Mexico. It's tough to accept the loss, but they deserved the win.

Surely there are not big expectations for the Korea squad?

Jokes aside, now that I've had a full round of matches to prod the model with a stick and listen for screams and growls, here's what it is currently insisting is reality:

1. Argentina - 25%: I deeply dislike how relaxed my model is about Argentina. It's lounging there in a silk dressing gown, sipping mate, telling me everything is fine, while I'm frantically checking the pipes for gas leaks. Something feels off, but I can't find the faulty wire. Still, after Cape Verde managed to staple Spain to the floor, Argentina have become the runaway favourites. I don't think they're this good, but I don't make the rules. Well, technically I do, but I'm not going to start bending them just because the machine has built a Messi-shaped shrine in the basement.
   
2. France - 15.425%: Looks... fair, frankly. Annoyingly reasonable, in fact. The sort of number that turns up wearing a sensible attire and refuses to say anything stupid for the cameras.
   
3. A Newcomer (i.e. either Colombia [5.23%] or Portugal [4.705%]) - 13.54%: Always possible, yes, but a new star is not automatically born just because the tournament has started making cinematic trailer noises. Sorry, Lady Gaga. Historically, first-time winners usually need one of two things: (1) home soil, even if they're wobbling around (Uruguay 1930, Italy 1934, England 1966, Germany 1974, Argentina 1978) or (2) an ELO rating so absurdly high before kick-off that the rest of the field should probably have filed a noise complaint, as with Spain in 2010.
   
   The outlier is Brazil, because of course we are. We choke at home with the dramatic commitment of a prestige HBO finale, and in 1958 we were not exactly the pre-tournament overlords. The three hosts all have the ingredients for a deep run this year, but we've never had this many hosts before, so the model is basically staring at the data like a Victorian child confronted with a microwave. With no chimneys to sweep, it's just lost. It also doesn't help that Colombia and Portugal are in the same group, because apparently probability needed a bit of theatre.
   
   Anyway, I would love to throw all caution to the wind and declare that South Korea are making the semifinals again, but my model has responded with a dry little cough and a printed rejection letter. Such is the life of an academic.
   
4. Spain - 13.345%: I'm willing to look past the Cape Verde fiasco, mainly because Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in 2022 and still won the whole thing.
   
5. England - 7.885%: It might be coming home after all, which would be less a sporting event and more like the Halley comet coming back after 60 years.
   
6. Brazil - 6.15%: We've improved a lot since Ancelotti took the helm. Whether that improvement amounts to a genuine resurrection or just someone applying premium wax to a car already sliding into an abyss, only the knockout stage can tell.
   
7. Germany - 4.23%: Any lower than this and it becomes too unlikely to deserve a proper mention. I'm giving Germany the benefit of the doubt because past champions tend to have a suspicious habit of remembering how to win, even when they enter the tournament looking like tourists. Their thrashing of Cura�ao also helps. Unfortunately, this means the list ends here. Netherlands? Nor way.

What does the model say Lira - this is weird

quote:

Originally posted by Midlothian What does the model say Lira - this is weird

All right, let me give a quick explanation: in a nutshell, the model disagrees with what the voices in my head say.

Me, as a person: For the record, I, Lira, work based on wishes and vibes. One day, I want to dress up in orange and jump from side to side with a star above the crest of my Netherlands jersey. I want to celebrate with my South Korean friends like it's 2002, and I will happily eat up every crumb of hope Son Heung-min gives me. I also want to engage in the sibling rivalry we have going on with our Southern neighbours, so Brazil having twice as many World Cup titles as Argentina would be the icing on the cake. The first list was all me, and I'm aware the universe is indifferent to my wants and prayers. As a matter of fact, if you work the brackets, you'll see my wishes are incompatible: if I have it my way, the Netherlands and Brazil might both reach the semifinals, but one of them will have to defeat Korea before they reach the top 4. Think of me as Ted Lasso's southernmost American cousin. I believe, but I might believe too much.

My semifinals: (South Korea/Netherlands), Spain, Brazil, Portugal. The game in brackets can go either way. Fight me, logic!

My model, as a series of spreadsheets: My model computes ELO ratings, with adjustments for matches on home soil, and expected goals, both scored and allowed. Then I run Monte Carlo Simulations to be on the safe side. And it's doing a pretty good job at that for a homemade model: it correctly predicted 60% of the three-way outcomes, although ties still trip my formulas up. Excluding draws entirely, the model went 19 correct out of 22 decisive matches, or 86.4%, having actually called some games correctly that a pure ELO-run model would've predicted wrong. So, I'm pretty happy with my backyard-built toy.

Now, my model doesn't have a sweet spot for South Korea despite running on a couple of Samsung laptops; it just crunches numbers and tells me how my dreams will be crushed. My model saw a Canadian victory against Qatar, a Dutch thrashing of Sweden (and Hup Hup Holland!), and a German re-enactment of the Battle of Belo Horizonte against Cura�ao () as givens. However, predicting a successful group-stage match against weaker opponents is also compatible with admitting that a deep run might hit a wall in the quarterfinals, for example.

My model's semifinals: Argentina, France, Spain, (England/Brazil). The last bracket is something of a toss-up now, as close to a 33%-33%-33% result as you can get.

I'll post the final table as soon I find out why HTML tags are acting up here. Fight me, logic!

Cracking game between Germany and Ivory Coast. The Ivorians were battering them at one point but Nagelsman's subs turned it around. Very impressed with Nmecha in midfield. As an Englishman I have an ancestral fear of Germany at major tournaments, and this kind of gritty win is the kind of shit they specialise in.

quote:

Originally posted by Ishkur lol

quote:

Originally posted by Lira We love you all the same, it's okay

The man's real name happens to be Jack. He was born listening to dance music

My first words as a baby were "And this is our house music."

Cabo Verde do C�u! I can't believe they're actually beating Uruguay, even if just momentarily

quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Cracking game between Germany and Ivory Coast. The Ivorians were battering them at one point but Nagelsman's subs turned it around. Very impressed with Nmecha in midfield. As an Englishman I have an ancestral fear of Germany at major tournaments, and this kind of gritty win is the kind of shit they specialise in.

So I watched this with my German brother in law and I feel like we may have watched 2 different games. I thought Ivory Coast should have done better with their opportunities but the in-law said they parked the bus and was calling for the manager�s head for not deploying undav to begin with?

I don�t watch as much these days, can you comment here?

Cabo Verde works their magic again. 🇨🇻

quote:

Originally posted by planetaryplayer So I watched this with my German brother in law and I feel like we may have watched 2 different games. I thought Ivory Coast should have done better with their opportunities but the in-law said they parked the bus and was calling for the manager�s head for not deploying undav to begin with? I don�t watch as much these days, can you comment here?

I fully agree with you. Germany could have lost that game very, very easily. The Ivorians were shredding their midfield for about 15 minutes after half-time, and even after it went 1-1, Adingra had a golden chance to win it in the 87th minute. This is where the old clich�s about "German efficiency" kick in. Ivory Coast wasted four or five really good chances to bury the game. When Germany got their chance, they took it ruthlessly.

As for "parking the bus"... Ivory Coast weren't really interested in passing the ball around in midfield and they were definitely set up to hit Germany fast and hard on the counter-attack, but saying they "parked the bus" is a bit ridiculous. It was a very aggressive, positive game plan and they have some really skilful players.

Defenders when somehow Messi slips past them all again and manages to put yet another goal in:

He's unreal. I was just laughing out loud when he somehow got the second one in. And he was even tracking back and tackling late in the second half. Probably the funniest part is you just know Ronaldo watched every minute of it in a hotel somewhere and was fucking fuming.

The thing is, he's been strolling around the MLS for the last couple of years so it's been impossible to judge his level. You had to assume at almost 39 that he's ready for retirement. But it turns out he's still as brilliant as ever. It's all still in there.

Oh, England, stopped dead in your tracks by Ghana, haha.

Rooting for DRC just because their fans are so outnumbered in Guadalajara versus Colombia right now.

You see that, German fans? That's what parking the bus looks like.

That was a pretty tense match between Canada and Switzerland.

Now I'm rooting for Scotland against all odds.

quote:

Originally posted by Vector A Now I'm rooting for Scotland against all odds.

Apparently, so is the VAR operator

Not sure if it's just my nationalism shouting into a megaphone, but I really don't see how that foul was worthy of overturning a goal. What the...

Edit: 4-2? I can't even begin to imagine what Morocco versus Haiti must've been like

Mexico looked pretty good once they decided to turn it on in the second half against Czechia.

Go Ecuadooooor. 🇪🇨

Although I have to toe a fine line in person, haha Germany you�re lucky you�re still in the tournament

Holy crap that goal from Elanga against Japan was a beauty.

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