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Originally posted by jerZ07002 Not a good idea because his BA isn't high enough and he strikes out too much. Someone in the second spot should be a contact hitter so that he can move over the leadoff man. Plus the sox would rather have a decent hitter behind manny to give him some protection. Drew is def. better than varitek. Right field in boston is bigger than both Dodger stadium and the old busch stadium, and almost every homerun hit by Drew was to right field. This guy isn't going to put up better numbers at fenway. A look at these dimensions will show that he shouldn't improve his power numbers: Fenway - Right - 380 (pesky pole - 302); RC - 385; Center - 420 Dodger Stadium - Right - 330; RC - 385; Center - 395 Old Busch Stadium - Right - 330; RC - 372; Center - 402.

You're overrating batting average - do some reading into OBP. The higher the onbase percentage of a player, the more runs they are going to score. The ability to move over a runner is definetly important, but giving up an out on a sac bunt or ground ball b/c they're a "contact hitter" is giving up an out - the last thing you want to do. I'd rather have a .270 hitter with a .390 OBP than a .320 hitter with a .340 OBP at the top of my lineup because they are on base more for Manny and Ortiz. That's why teams like the Nationals, Texas, and the Yankees were idiotic having Soriano in the 1 hole... his OBP is garbage.

Just because right field is bigger in Boston doesn't mean he's going to put up worse numbers. Boston, in general, is more generous on hitters than Dodger stadium... and that is a fact, backed up by the statistic, park factor. DImensions have very little to do with how many runs a team puts up - For example, Colorado is one of the biggest parks in the league, as far as dimensions are concerned, but runs are scored like no other in that park. And no, the altitude has little to do with it these days, as the balls are treated in a humidor before being used in Colorado.

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Originally posted by jerZ07002 Ooooh, i read a headline on espn that he was happy in colorado or some shit like that, it gave me the impression he resigned. i didn't read the article because it told me he wasn't going to boston and that's all i cared about. Thanks for the info, I don't usually mess with NL stuff. and thank god he didn't go to boston, highest active ba in the majors. Also a great 1b man. He's no joke.

I for one would've LOVED to see Helton go to Boston, as a Yankee fan. Remember, Helton played his whole career in Colorado, before they started using the new humidor treated baseballs there. Since they started using this a few years ago, this combined with injuries has turned Helton into a merely pedestrian hitter.

At home last year, he was:
.338/.445/.531 for a .976 OPS.

Away from Coors, he was:
.266/.360/.421 for a .781 OPS

In otherwords, as far as overall production goes, away from Coors, he is the equivalent of guys like Jamie Carrol, Shawn Greene, and Kenny Lofton, using OPS(On base + Slugging%). Combine this with his declining production over the past 3 years, his albatross of a contract through 2011, and wow... that's just something I wish the Red Sox picked up this offseason. Would he stilll be good? Yeah... for a year or two... but at no point would he be the Todd Helton we've seen in Colorado. Nowhere close.

Re: Re: Re: Re: New York Yankees Thread (THIS THING OF OURS)

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Originally posted by Shamez214 You can keep him.

we are,,it was a misunderstanding on my friends part....basically hes changing his shirt number should clemens come to the bronx....

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: New York Yankees Thread (THIS THING OF OURS)

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Originally posted by jerZ07002 wooow. Jose valentin over Robinson Cano, that's a dumb baseball move. Valentin isn't even a second baseman. You must not have noticed that Cano had a .342 BA and Valentin had a .271 BA. Don't worry about that move happening, the yankees aren't about to deal him away.

Obviously, if I were just choosing second basemen, I'd choose Cano over Valentin. However, to trade for him would cost way more in value than he is actually worth. He's not as good as he seems.

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Originally posted by chanman7483 You're overrating batting average - do some reading into OBP. The higher the onbase percentage of a player, the more runs they are going to score. The ability to move over a runner is definetly important, but giving up an out on a sac bunt or ground ball b/c they're a "contact hitter" is giving up an out - the last thing you want to do. I'd rather have a .270 hitter with a .390 OBP than a .320 hitter with a .340 OBP at the top of my lineup because they are on base more for Manny and Ortiz. That's why teams like the Nationals, Texas, and the Yankees were idiotic having Soriano in the 1 hole... his OBP is garbage. Just because right field is bigger in Boston doesn't mean he's going to put up worse numbers. Boston, in general, is more generous on hitters than Dodger stadium... and that is a fact, backed up by the statistic, park factor. DImensions have very little to do with how many runs a team puts up - For example, Colorado is one of the biggest parks in the league, as far as dimensions are concerned, but runs are scored like no other in that park. And no, the altitude has little to do with it these days, as the balls are treated in a humidor before being used in Colorado.

i know all about OBP. You're .320 BA and .340 OBP is totally unrealistic. A normal batter has a OBP of .40 - .60 above the BA. So a .320 BA would mean a .360 - .380 BA. On top of that JD Drew is not going to be in the top of the order. He is probably going to hit after Manny. This means his high OBP will not mean as much because the batters after him will have lower BA's, SLG's, and OBPs and will not knock him in (Manny had 79 runs compared to Ortiz 115 runs). If he was hitting number two his low BA would be a bad fit. A first batter should have a high OBP with speed (which Drew does not). A 2 batter should be a good contact hitter to move the first batter over. Drew's lower BA means everything here. Sure he has a high OBP, but he also strikes out alot. A second hitter is meant to move over the first batter so the 3rd and cleanup hitter can knock in the runs.

You're right, the fact that RF in boston is bigger doesn't mean he is going to put up worse numbers, but it does increase the probability that he will put up worse power numbers. A bigger RF could very well increase singles and BA, but i doubt it will help his RBIs and HRs.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: New York Yankees Thread (THIS THING OF OURS)

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Originally posted by Shamez214 Obviously, if I were just choosing second basemen, I'd choose Cano over Valentin. However, to trade for him would cost way more in value than he is actually worth. He's not as good as he seems.

Maybe so, but he's 24.

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Originally posted by jerZ07002 i know all about OBP. You're .320 BA and .340 OBP is totally unrealistic. A normal batter has a OBP of .40 - .60 above the BA. So a .320 BA would mean a .360 - .380 BA. On top of that JD Drew is not going to be in the top of the order. He is probably going to hit after Manny. This means his high OBP will not mean as much because the batters after him will have lower BA's, SLG's, and OBPs and will not knock him in (Manny had 79 runs compared to Ortiz 115 runs). If he was hitting number two his low BA would be a bad fit. A first batter should have a high OBP with speed (which Drew does not). A 2 batter should be a good contact hitter to move the first batter over. Drew's lower BA means everything here. Sure he has a high OBP, but he also strikes out alot. A second hitter is meant to move over the first batter so the 3rd and cleanup hitter can knock in the runs. You're right, the fact that RF in boston is bigger doesn't mean he is going to put up worse numbers, but it does increase the probability that he will put up worse power numbers. A bigger RF could very well increase singles and BA, but i doubt it will help his RBIs and HRs.

We can agree to disagree here - But I think guys at the top of the lineup should have good obp's, first and foremost. I think "contact" and "pesky" hitters are overrated... Figgins, Pierre, those guys. Why they bat at the top of the lineup is beyond me.

And with regards to the AVG/OBP differences, it's not unrealistic. Let's take a look Cano

Robinson Cano -
2005- ~.300 avg, .320 obp
2006- .345 avg, .365 OBP

As you can see, the only reason his OBP was better the following year was because of his higher batting average. However, it's only a 20 point differnece, like my example pointed out. If you recall, you'll remember that 2 years ago, Jeter was leading off and Cano was batting in the 2 hole at the time. The thinking was wow, this guy is a great contact hitter, he puts the bat on the ball. But then Torre realized his OBP sucked, came to his senses, and stuck him towards the bottom of the order where his crap OBP wouldn't do any harm.

Another example would be Jose Reyes circa 2005 - 275 avg, 300 obp... he had no business being in the 1 slot... but that's why the Mets are the Mets.

And yes, your point about Fenway taking away his power numbers is probably accurate. But he's going to become a doubles machine, with the monster being so close in LF and the big gaps in right center. He's a natural line drive hitter anyway... which is another reason he should be in the 2 hole, IMO.

And yes, a 2 hitter is supposed to move the runner into scoring position - but Drew has proven he can get on base at a clip of over .400. So, do you take the guy who can get the runner over 27% of the time with a hit and risk double plays in the process, or a guy who is a lock for getting on base(and moving runners over in the process), 40% of the time while decreasing the risk of double plays because he strikes out? BTW, his strikeout totals are a product of him taking a lot of pitches rather than being a free swinger... huge difference.

youkilis and drew 1 and 2 are the red sox best option. Having crisp or lugo in either spot would be a huge mistake for the red sox.

quote:

Originally posted by chanman7483 We can agree to disagree here - But I think guys at the top of the lineup should have good obp's, first and foremost. I think "contact" and "pesky" hitters are overrated... Figgins, Pierre, those guys. Why they bat at the top of the lineup is beyond me. And with regards to the AVG/OBP differences, it's not unrealistic. Let's take a look Cano Robinson Cano - 2005- ~.300 avg, .320 obp 2006- .345 avg, .365 OBP As you can see, the only reason his OBP was better the following year was because of his higher batting average. However, it's only a 20 point differnece, like my example pointed out. If you recall, you'll remember that 2 years ago, Jeter was leading off and Cano was batting in the 2 hole at the time. The thinking was wow, this guy is a great contact hitter, he puts the bat on the ball. But then Torre realized his OBP sucked, came to his senses, and stuck him towards the bottom of the order where his crap OBP wouldn't do any harm. Another example would be Jose Reyes circa 2005 - 275 avg, 300 obp... he had no business being in the 1 slot... but that's why the Mets are the Mets. And yes, your point about Fenway taking away his power numbers is probably accurate. But he's going to become a doubles machine, with the monster being so close in LF and the big gaps in right center. He's a natural line drive hitter anyway... which is another reason he should be in the 2 hole, IMO. And yes, a 2 hitter is supposed to move the runner into scoring position - but Drew has proven he can get on base at a clip of over .400. So, do you take the guy who can get the runner over 27% of the time with a hit and risk double plays in the process, or a guy who is a lock for getting on base(and moving runners over in the process), 40% of the time while decreasing the risk of double plays because he strikes out? BTW, his strikeout totals are a product of him taking a lot of pitches rather than being a free swinger... huge difference. youkilis and drew 1 and 2 are the red sox best option. Having crisp or lugo in either spot would be a huge mistake for the red sox.

while i don't disagree with most of what you said, i think the examples you used for your OBP were bad. Cano was a second year man and so was Reyes. As everyone knows the hardest part of baseball is learning patience. So using canos difference in OBP and BA is flawed. I see what you are saying about having a high OBP in the 2 hole, but i think its the wrong move. Just remember the difference between a productive out and an unproductive out. That is probably one of the most underrated things in baseball.

People who judge by OBP are so 2004. If you're going to use OBP as a statistic to make arguments, it would be much better to use IsoD. Chan, I kinda think that's what you're getting at and IsoD is basically a stripped down version of what you're saying.

quote:

Originally posted by Shamez214 People who judge by OBP are so 2004. If you're going to use OBP as a statistic to make arguments, it would be much better to use IsoD. Chan, I kinda think that's what you're getting at and IsoD is basically a stripped down version of what you're saying.

please tell, what is IsoD???? I've never heard. For the kind of ball chan is talking about OPS is better than OBP. It takes into account both walks and power.

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Originally posted by jerZ07002 please tell, what is IsoD???? I've never heard. For the kind of ball chan is talking about OPS is better than OBP. It takes into account both walks and power.

In it's basic form, IsoD is just AVG subtracted from OBP. Someone like Manny Ramirez would have a high IsoD, while Juan Pierre's would be very low.

quote:

Originally posted by jerZ07002 please tell, what is IsoD???? I've never heard. For the kind of ball chan is talking about OPS is better than OBP. It takes into account both walks and power.

'


Right - the reason I was using OBP vs OPS for Drew was b/c I wanted to stress that aspect of his game. I mean, Soriano has a better OPS than Drew, but I'd rather have Drew closer to the top of the lineup because of his higher OBP... and furthermore, ISod.

But yeah... OPS is pretty much an end all for me... but that's also b/c I don't tend to get further than that, as far as looking at stats. I have, but there's just too much sh*t out there, and I think OPS is fine.

you fucking stat whores - this over analysis simply kills the enjoyment of the game

stop deliberating over on base percentages, we aren't making the decisions on who should go where because frankly when you get that deep into the stats and rosters you lose focus of the game...it's a game you're supposed to have fun not analyze every pitcher matchup or batting order

cheering for my team thats all i'll do...
go pinstripes

quote:

Originally posted by kid nyce you fucking stat whores - this over analysis simply kills the enjoyment of the game stop deliberating over on base percentages, we aren't making the decisions on who should go where because frankly when you get that deep into the stats and rosters you lose focus of the game...it's a game you're supposed to have fun not analyze every pitcher matchup or batting order cheering for my team thats all i'll do... go pinstripes

ok

quote:

Originally posted by chanman7483 ok

at what point to a debate does this become a who-knows-the-most-about-baseball contest?

i sit here hoping this thread would turn fun but then it becomes a nerd contest or who can look up stuff the fastest.

let me throw my baseball almanac at you ... after i find it..

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Originally posted by kid nyce at what point to a debate does this become a who-knows-the-most-about-baseball contest? i sit here hoping this thread would turn fun but then it becomes a nerd contest or who can look up stuff the fastest. let me throw my baseball almanac at you ... after i find it..

You seroius? Those are the most basic stats out there - avg, obp, ops. If I'm making a point, I prefer to back it up w/ basic stats ... b/c it validates my point. Again - basic. Stats.

You may not like the basic stats we're using, but I prefer it to shit like JETER IS TH3 L33t, AROD SUXXXXXXXXX...that's just me though.

played ball for 16yrs of my life through college D2

the reason i stopped was because i didn't have any fun, it was too serious and when people get all worked up over stats i try to remind them that this game originated as a FUN sport like all sports. people start debates on forums and it loses it's fun, the fun in competition, the fun in being part of a team because a pro athlete is seen as an INDIVIDUAL, with individual stats...thats bullshit to me

there is no I in team


tis why i stopped caring for stats for the whole LEAGUE of players, I have my team I root for them for whoever they choose for however they play...i root for them because its fun to be a fan....NOT A FANATIC!

quote:

Originally posted by kid nyce played ball for 16yrs of my life through college D2 the reason i stopped was because i didn't have any fun, it was too serious and when people get all worked up over stats i try to remind them that this game originated as a FUN sport like all sports. people start debates on forums and it loses it's fun, the fun in competition, the fun in being part of a team because a pro athlete is seen as an INDIVIDUAL, with individual stats...thats bullshit to me there is no I in team tis why i stopped caring for stats for the whole LEAGUE of players, I have my team I root for them for whoever they choose for however they play...i root for them because its fun to be a fan....NOT A FANATIC!

exactly,,i love the yankees win or lose...to me its just pure fun,,i love the boston V yankees rivalry and i hate the mets with a passion...as for statistics,,who gives a fuck???..WE'RE THE YANKEES...when my wife (red sox) starts quoting stats at me i give her 26 reasons why she should shut the fuck up....

quote:

Originally posted by kid nyce played ball for 16yrs of my life through college D2 the reason i stopped was because i didn't have any fun, it was too serious and when people get all worked up over stats i try to remind them that this game originated as a FUN sport like all sports. people start debates on forums and it loses it's fun, the fun in competition, the fun in being part of a team because a pro athlete is seen as an INDIVIDUAL, with individual stats...thats bullshit to me there is no I in team tis why i stopped caring for stats for the whole LEAGUE of players, I have my team I root for them for whoever they choose for however they play...i root for them because its fun to be a fan....NOT A FANATIC!

Bottom line is that you look at stats as sucking and not fun.. while I get into stats b/c I have a passion for the game of baseball itself and stats enhances the game to me, I get a better understanding of it and whats going on. I use stats to formulate my opinions on players b/c I don't get to see baseball outside of the Yanks/Mets.

We're all Yankee fans here, so lets get back to the subject at hand..

and no, I don't see the Yanks giving up on Cano... and yes, he is not as good as we all think... I could throw out stats, but I'll skip that.

for now

i'm well aware of stats, but i dont follow them religiously to hold conversations over the intarweeb, remember i played the game through college, you want to talk about stats lol, it was a requirement for the team to have what we called the bible of the league. pitcher matchups against hitters, new players from what region playing what type of competitive ball. That's what turned me off, it was too much of a "I know what's successful and who has what weaknesses" - that part I didn't like because thats the mentality that 'only winners' have. I prefer to play without knowing, to play straight up, to play me against you, my inside four seamer against your three hole hitter with 2 on. It was fun even though he smacked me up 2 times earlier in the season, I still drilled in on a hitter not because the stats said don't do it, but because it's a challenge...something you can't experience from looking at numbers...IMHO

ontopic
i'd actually prefer to have my high OBP hitters in the bottom of the order and the contact hitters up top.

quote:

Originally posted by chanman7483 Bottom line is that you look at stats as sucking and not fun.. while I get into stats b/c I have a passion for the game of baseball itself and stats enhances the game to me, I get a better understanding of it and whats going on. I use stats to formulate my opinions on players b/c I don't get to see baseball outside of the Yanks/Mets.

+1

stats is pretty much what makes fantasy baseball fun.

So you're against preparation?? No matter that guy smacked you up

The rationale for OBP at the bottom can be overcome by slg% of the 3,4,5 hitters. No need to move the runners over w/ bunts/groundouts if the 3,4,5's can hit doubles/hrs to score them.

BTW, there's talk of AROD opting out after this season. I for one don't want him to go.. and if he does, I'm sure everyone is going to prefer Eric Duncan or whoever else we stick in there to the best 3b in the history of the yankees, and one of the top ball players of all time.

A)vern - 'FANTASY' lol need I say more lol

B)I'm not against preparation, I'm against 'rationale' - lol wtf is that, there is no time to rationale when you're standing on the mound about to throw a pitch. You know what you threw him last time and you work the batter like any other pitcher would. And why would I need to rationalize my batting order? I know who hits what, who's on base, and who can run fast. That's all I need to know, I don't need to know peoples OBP, I can generally know by watching them play, the situations they are in and how they respond even though on paper it might say one thing, it's another thing when you see a batter hit to the right side and make an out but move a runner over to third. Same thing goes for a lefty pulling an outside pitch to move a runner over.

quote:

Originally posted by kid nyce A)vern - 'FANTASY' lol need I say more lol

yes you do actually...don't know why you're loling over that

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