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quote:

Originally posted by ninetyninej i wouldn't be surprised to see the euro-dollar to fall to $1.75 or worse by years end.

some analysts are projecting the dollar will fall to 40.00 before the fed is done cutting rates

bear stearns @ $2/share... really makes you wonder what all the other massive investment banks are worth.

quote:

Originally posted by R!CH some analysts are projecting the dollar will fall to 40.00 before the fed is done cutting rates bear stearns @ $2/share... really makes you wonder what all the other massive investment banks are worth.

damn i really hope not. its getting pretty bad as it is. stupid bernanke needs to raise rates a lot. such an idiot.

i spoke to someone yesterday who is now selling/shipping a lot of international orders b/c the dollar is so cheap...

how much do you think foreign purchases and an increase in tourism can help out market (especially when we get a new president)?

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal i spoke to someone yesterday who is now selling/shipping a lot of international orders b/c the dollar is so cheap... how much do you think foreign purchases and an increase in tourism can help out market (especially when we get a new president)?

the foreign travel industry will have a positive effect, but the amount will be quite small. the amount that the banks are having to write off is so massive that it wont do much.

quote:

Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal i spoke to someone yesterday who is now selling/shipping a lot of international orders b/c the dollar is so cheap... how much do you think foreign purchases and an increase in tourism can help out market (especially when we get a new president)?

this will help the economy alot but definitely doesnt solve the problem. remember 60% of U.S. output is services so tourists will help alot but the problem is real estate (real assets) and financial assets.

quote:

Originally posted by R!CH some analysts are projecting the dollar will fall to 40.00 before the fed is done cutting rates bear stearns @ $2/share... really makes you wonder what all the other massive investment banks are worth.

thats posssible but HIGHLY unlikely, one in a million chance that will happen. so these analysts are suggesting a 4000% inflation rate before year end

ok im unsure i understand something..what is the difference between a "write down" and a "write off" or are they one and the same?

LOL - JP Morgan's shares jumped $3.77 (10.32%) today in response to purchasing Bear Stearns for $2 per share (total of $236.2 million). This means that today, JPM�s market cap increased by 12.8 BILLION DOLLARS... which makes JPM�s acquisition of Bear Stearns worth $110 per share What a nice investment the FED made, ahem, JP Morgan too...

quote:

Originally posted by gehzumteufel ok im unsure i understand something..what is the difference between a "write down" and a "write off" or are they one and the same?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/writedown.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/write-off.asp

Also to the comment about how BSC dropped in value so fast. Basically they weren't honest about their value and they hold so much toxic paper that they can't even be properly valued. There is no market to unload what they have, if you don't have a market to sell your junk you can't properly price it.

It's nice to see a few people on here genuinely concerned/interested in our economy. I've held off for a long time commenting in this thread because usually it turns into some argument amongst morons. To ninetyninej keep up what you do and learn how to profit from these things. I've known this was gonna happen for a few years, I tried to tell several people not to buy a house, etc. Of course they listened to their realtor instead of me, now they're losing their houses. Personally I feel this country needs a massive correction, something painful enough to get people away from reality tv shows and see what's really going on. This country needs to start encouraging saving instead of spending if we want to continue to prosper. For me the devaluation in the dollar amongst other currencies has been great, I own a hedge fund and specialize in FOREX, however it's not good for the overall economy if it's sustained longterm. If you want to read some good blogs/sites that are way ahead of the curve and portray how things really are check out:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

the REAL govt statistics:
http://www.shadowstats.com/

-spinvinyl

spin: im 100% with you there. when i worked at wells fargo home mortgage, i started in jun 2005. by dec 2005 i was saying that the housing market is going to kill our economy because everyone is buying houses they cant afford, buying cars that stretch them even thinner, and running up their credit cards. i couldnt believe the state we were in. and this was almost 3 years ago. all my loan officer coworkers didnt believe me when i said the housing market will crash and take the economy with it. now here it is.

gehz... yep spot on my friend, I didn't mean to talk down to anyone either, i realize a lot of people on here are kinda young/inexperienced. You are absolutely right on all the MEW (mortgage equity extraction) that went on via HELOCs. The motto was 'the value only goes up' so the house was viewed as an atm. Now people owe more than their house is worth and people are just walking away. California is a non recourse state so people can default and not lose anything but the house, just a little damaged credit for a few years. Now with the 1099 reprieve they don't even have to pay tax on the difference of a short sale. This is what killed the tech guys in 2000 when tech stocks crashed. People had options that were way under water but had to still pay tax on the difference since it's viewed as income. There wasn't a bailout then though! If I could go back 5 years I woulda bought a house, re-fi'd several times, bought some nice cars and mailed in the keys, but I tend to do things the right way. Did you happen to work for Countrywide? Was kinda nice seeing ol' tan man getting grilled by Congress, I hope he gets the jail time he deserves.

-spinvinyl

quote:

Originally posted by gehzumteufel ok im unsure i understand something..what is the difference between a "write down" and a "write off" or are they one and the same?

they are used interchangeably meaning getting debt out from the financials. but i never really knew that they actually both have different definitions.

quote:

Originally posted by spinvinyl gehz... yep spot on my friend, I didn't mean to talk down to anyone either, i realize a lot of people on here are kinda young/inexperienced. You are absolutely right on all the MEW (mortgage equity extraction) that went on via HELOCs. The motto was 'the value only goes up' so the house was viewed as an atm. Now people owe more than their house is worth and people are just walking away. California is a non recourse state so people can default and not lose anything but the house, just a little damaged credit for a few years. Now with the 1099 reprieve they don't even have to pay tax on the difference of a short sale. This is what killed the tech guys in 2000 when tech stocks crashed. People had options that were way under water but had to still pay tax on the difference since it's viewed as income. There wasn't a bailout then though! If I could go back 5 years I woulda bought a house, re-fi'd several times, bought some nice cars and mailed in the keys, but I tend to do things the right way. Did you happen to work for Countrywide? Was kinda nice seeing ol' tan man getting grilled by Congress, I hope he gets the jail time he deserves. -spinvinyl

nah only worked for wells. got laid off when the market first slowed down and decided to get out of the mortgage industry.

but yeah your totally right about the house is their atm. sad but totally true. i saw so many people already at 80% LTV and they would take out a heloc that would push them to 95%LTV. then 1yr later the houses were selling for less than the total mortgages on the house. pretty bad.

but in the next 6 months to 1 year is a good time to buy!!!!!!!! LOL

quote:

Originally posted by diskodave LOL - JP Morgan's shares jumped $3.77 (10.32%) today in response to purchasing Bear Stearns for $2 per share (total of $236.2 million). This means that today, JPM�s market cap increased by 12.8 BILLION DOLLARS... which makes JPM�s acquisition of Bear Stearns worth $110 per share What a nice investment the FED made, ahem, JP Morgan too...

heres the funny thing: JP Morgan shares performed very well because morgan bought BSC without raising any capital and no expense. well the only expense is the fed rate. if this is allowed, then why dont they let microsoft buy yahoo just like that as well?

i dont care how fake the book value is, let them go broke and let the free market decide how much the share price should be. even if they go broke, how about FDIC insurance?

and finally and the worst of them all, why the offer so low? the share prices today trading higher than $2 (around 4 or $5) is a sign that this company is only worth that low because of all the pressures against them. the fed is just great for this kind of bs. also remember that the fed was originated by Mr. J. P. Morgan along with Rockefeller and others as well.

quote:

Originally posted by stefanoc then why dont they let microsoft buy yahoo just like that as well?

Yahoo felt that the offer was too small...

Also, it is a Recession, and it always has been a recession. Why has it not been announced publicly? If it is announced publicly, we will be 2x worse off than we are now. The dollar will be literally worthless, and all hell will break loose inside the US.

quote:

Originally posted by llavoe Yahoo felt that the offer was too small... Also, it is a Recession, and it always has been a recession. Why has it not been announced publicly? If it is announced publicly, we will be 2x worse off than we are now. The dollar will be literally worthless, and all hell will break loose inside the US.

i dont know whether you took my yahoo comment as a joke or not, but it was a joke.

people dont trust anyone saying 'were in recession' unless the president says so.

quote:

Originally posted by stefanoc people dont trust anyone saying 'were in recession' unless the president says so.

Bush is never going to say that.

yeah really, I mean Bush didn't even know gas prices we're expected to go higher....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EWwrK0VQkY

quote:

Originally posted by spinvinyl yeah really, I mean Bush didn't even know gas prices we're expected to go higher.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EWwrK0VQkY

lol bush doesnt know jack shit. all he knows how to do is lie about what he knows and make up words in his speeches.

edit// and this!

Bush DOES know guys, he just chooses to ignore it. It is someone else's problem in a few months anyway.

quote:

Originally posted by spinvinyl yeah really, I mean Bush didn't even know gas prices we're expected to go higher.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EWwrK0VQkY

bush doesnt know shit other than 911, iraq, taliban, al qeada.

i can imagine hank paulson lecturing bush about whats going on everyday and try to explain him that bear stearns is a company, not a name of a bear.

THE FED

Part 1



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ


Part 2



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBZne09Gf5A

Awesome video...

zeitgeist is a great film, here's another one

Fed Cuts Rates 3/4 Point, Less Than Expected

No problemo, Bernanke to the rescue!

Fed Slashes Rates by Three-Quarter Points- AP

With recession fears growing, the Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a point. Most investors expected a full-point reduction. Today�s cut comes on the heels of the Bear Stearns bailout and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson saying the U.S. economy is in "sharp decline."...

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