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quote:

Originally posted by rabbitjoker Once the stimulus money runs dry I think we're going back down at least 25%-30% from where we are today.

I don't think the U.S stimulus has much to do with the rise of the stock markets from the March lows but if that was the case then Barack will just release his second Stimulus package then the third and they'll do it enough until the dollar is worthless. Does anyone really believe Nancy Pepsi is not working on Stimulus 2.0 already?

quote:

Originally posted by rabbitjoker Once the stimulus money runs dry I think we're going back down at least 25%-30% from where we are today.

Stimulus money hasn't really started flowing. We're hearing from companies that it's actually made things temporarily worse, as projects are being put off until people find out if the project is eligible for funding.

I don't believe this is anything more than a bear market rally and we're in for a lot more volatility in the days ahead...ie yesterday down 300pts, today up 200..reminds me of the fall of 2008 again!

quote:

Originally posted by Skipper Stimulus money hasn't really started flowing. We're hearing from companies that it's actually made things temporarily worse, as projects are being put off until people find out if the project is eligible for funding. I don't believe this is anything more than a bear market rally and we're in for a lot more volatility in the days ahead...ie yesterday down 300pts, today up 200..reminds me of the fall of 2008 again!

I agree, i think we're going much lower. I think we might test lower bottoms than the 7000's in March. The market has been rising for 10 weeks straight while theres nothing but bad economic news, more bankruptsies, more job loss and housing sector down..

Skipper

after following your posts you seem to know a thing or two. Is this your bread and butter?

quote:

Originally posted by bossi I agree, i think we're going much lower. I think we might test lower bottoms than the 7000's in March. The market has been rising for 10 weeks straight while theres nothing but bad economic news, more bankruptsies, more job loss and housing sector down..

From what I understand the market is now pricing in a strong recovery by the end year and when that time comes and the recovery isn't there the market will sell off. Who knows what will happen until then? For the time being do not underestimate the massive money printing done by most central banks to fight the so called deflation. Look at the crude oil, inventories are in multiyear high, demand is not there and yet people are talking about oil at $75 a barrel.

Re: Skipper

quote:

Originally posted by bossi after following your posts you seem to know a thing or two. Is this your bread and butter?

thanks, and yes it is

quote:

Originally posted by bossi I agree, i think we're going much lower. I think we might test lower bottoms than the 7000's in March. The market has been rising for 10 weeks straight while theres nothing but bad economic news, more bankruptsies, more job loss and housing sector down..

The market is typically a leading indicator though - so that shouldn't come as a surprise. It will price in a recovery before the stats show it. This is why the market crashed in October, a full 2 months before Canada technically entered a recession.

I Still in RIM at 85.50 and losing as its 83 now. I also put in WTN (Western canadian coal). Analysts give it a target price of 2.51 for share. I got in at 1.25 earlier today and its sitting at 1.34 right now.

Its undervalued according to its p/e relative to other companies in its industry. Annuals last years were crap but the last 3 quarters have shown positive earnings and good revenue.

anyone have an opinion on this?

Coal prices KOL (ETF) are rising as well. this is also another good indicator.

quote:

Originally posted by spolitta From what I understand the market is now pricing in a strong recovery by the end year and when that time comes and the recovery isn't there the market will sell off. Who knows what will happen until then? For the time being do not underestimate the massive money printing done by most central banks to fight the so called deflation. Look at the crude oil, inventories are in multiyear high, demand is not there and yet people are talking about oil at $75 a barrel.

thats what happens when you have a cartel OPEC controlling the industry. They can dictate the price as they control the market.

quote:

Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit thats what happens when you have a cartel OPEC controlling the industry. They can dictate the price as they control the market.

Would you please tell us how exactly OPEC dictates prices?

I thought OPEC only controls 40% of the world's oil supply? I should really follow it more closely, but from what I understand, the last couple of OPEC production cuts haven't had the desired effect on prices...there are too many other quickly moving parts in today's market I think.

anyone know any good ETFs that short the tsx with 2 or 3 times exposure?

i need some good bear etfs

quote:

Originally posted by Skipper I thought OPEC only controls 40% of the world's oil supply? I should really follow it more closely, but from what I understand, the last couple of OPEC production cuts haven't had the desired effect on prices...there are too many other quickly moving parts in today's market I think.

yes i guess they don't have as much of a hold as they used to back in the day. 40 percent is still quite significant though.

quote:

Originally posted by SniFFleS anyone know any good ETFs that short the tsx with 2 or 3 times exposure? i need some good bear etfs

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=AMEX:BSCBM



lol


just joking

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=NYSE:SRS

this one tracks the inverse of the DOW jones..


i dont know anyones for the tsx though

quote:

Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit yes i guess they don't have as much of a hold as they used to back in the day. 40 percent is still quite significant though.

Can we please assume that OPEC has %100 market share, I still like to know why some people think OPEC dictates prices in such an evil way.

quote:

Originally posted by spolitta Can we please assume that OPEC has %100 market share, I still like to know why some people think OPEC dictates prices in such an evil way.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartel


this is the definition of cartel


now Opec is a cartel.

Anyone can tutor me for FSA on CFA level 1?

quote:

Originally posted by SniFFleS Anyone can tutor me for FSA on CFA level 1?

haha, if I weren't neck deep in level 2 material right now maybe! what's causing you issues?

MPT.UN

quote:

Originally posted by Skipper haha, if I weren't neck deep in level 2 material right now maybe! what's causing you issues?

Inventories, Cash flow analysis.

I wish I took more accounting through the years.

hey guys..

Do any of you know where i can trade international markets online? I'm with Questrde at the moment but they wont allow you to trade on line. You'd haver to call it in. same as Etrade.


Thank you

ps. been playing the fluctuation of these for the pass month and a half with great results.

HBAN (NGS)
BAC (NYE)
LULU (NGS)
F (NYE)
FITB (NGS)

quote:

Originally posted by SniFFleS Inventories, Cash flow analysis. I wish I took more accounting through the years.

Absolutely know LIFO and FIFO, they are key level 1 concepts and appear at level 2. I recall there being more questions than I expected on conversion between the two.

Anyone know how to hedge a US stock account against gains in Canadian currency, using something tradable on US stock exchanges?

Not that I need to do it right now, but a couple of years ago I mostly had US stocks and it was a big pain that a lot of the gains would have been eaten up by rises in the Canadian dollar (if I sold out and converted the US$ to Cdn$ that is).

quote:

Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit I Still in RIM at 85.50 and losing as its 83 now. I also put in WTN (Western canadian coal). Analysts give it a target price of 2.51 for share. I got in at 1.25 earlier today and its sitting at 1.34 right now. Its undervalued according to its p/e relative to other companies in its industry. Annuals last years were crap but the last 3 quarters have shown positive earnings and good revenue. anyone have an opinion on this? Coal prices KOL (ETF) are rising as well. this is also another good indicator.

I've been in WTN long from the low $1s. My favourite's still Patriot, it's been so volatile that you could almost day trade it, but each time it seems to rebound. Huge short interest though which scares me a bit. I think coal in general is great right now, but that could change at any time.

Oil took a dive today with options expiry, as predicted. I think it's still got another 5-10% to go down.

My favourite play this week was buying FAZ $5 calls for, I think, $40 each and selling them for $115 each. Too bad I went in with such a small amount of money. I know people like to day-trade those instruments but options are way more interesting, actually sort of fun.

Oh, and as for currency hedges, it's pretty hard for retail investors but there are ways:
- Borrow USD (if you can) and/or use your margin on a USD trading account to invest in Canadian securities
- Buy futures contracts on U.S. securities (most likely an index fund)
- Buy CAD futures (in units of $100K... good luck)

There may be more that I don't know about...

yeah coal took a hit today dunno why. perhaps something to do with the materials sector. Some Companies reporting their annual losses i'm guessing.


WTN looks promising though. I'd hold til at least mid or beginning june. speculation might cause share prices to rise and if your gutsy enough, hold them til after the Q4 release.

Insiders have bought and are holding the stock as well which is a good sign. Analysts also say the market price is valued at 2.51 per share. I'm assuming this is relative to other companies in the industry. I can only speculate thats how they come up with that number.

I'll look into patriot as well. Coal prices should be on an increase, which is good so long that our canadian dollar doesn't pound the american one into the ground.

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