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-- The complexities of global warming.... solved by a teenager with braces.
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Fuck off.

It's a bot, big guy. It can't read your post.

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Originally posted by bas What? No way. People wanted to fuck Molly Ringwald.

phew.. i couldn't bare dealing with A cup breasts.

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Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN Lol. I must admit though that your denialism (as expressed previously) intrigues me.

Denial would require more knowledge than I can attest to. The limitations within which climate research takes place require a healthy dose of skepticism. However, that does not mean that it cannot produce persuasive evidence. Indeed, I would say that it has produced persuasive--even compelling--evidence as to the question of the existence of climate change as a phenomenon and the general role of human activity in bringing it about.

But that proposition, which is the subject of such intense focus, is relatively meaningless standing on its own. Without more, it provides us with no information about how we ought to respond to the phenomenon, assuming that it is occurring.

In order to make an informed decision, we would want to know whether, in fact, we can realistically prevent climate change, and, if so, what it would require for us to do so. Alternately, we may be able to affect the magnitude of its effects or the rate at which they occur; here, too, we would want to know precisely what present actions would produce precisely what future effect.

Even that would be insufficient, however. Unless we also know to precisely what climate to which we are changing and precisely how the change will proceed, it's impossible to evaluate the costs and benefits associated with the different possible climates that our present choices could produce over time.

Much is made of the "scientific consensus" that climate change exists and that humanity is playing a substantial role in it. But without a similar consensus as to all of these critical ancillary questions, consensus as to those general propositions of climate change is completely and utterly meaningless. And, indeed, there is no consensus and only meager evidence with respect to the details.

Thus, as a practical matter, we are operating largely in the dark. Without more and better evidence, we are left to speculate about the critical variables that might tilt a cost/benefit analysis one way or the other.

So, speculate I have, and the tentative conclusions that I have reached are that (1) efforts to prevent climate change are futile and wasteful; and (2) furthermore, they would be undesirable even if they might succeed because the climate we would likely be moving towards is on balance superior to the Earth's current climate; but (3) the rate of change is probably far faster than would be optimal, so it would be a good idea to try to slow the process, provided that the cost of doing so is not excessive; but (4) the prospects for achieving a significant rate reduction in a cost-effective manner are generally poor, barring a fortuitous technological advancement that substantially reduces our reliance on fossil fuels.

I am not particularly invested in any of these conclusions, and would happily change them if new evidence provided stronger support for alternative ones. Unfortunately, few experts in the area seem to be interested in creating data that are actually useful. Hopefully that will change. But if it does not change, I will merely take pleasure in the knowledge that if I am wrong, it will be someone else who ends up paying the price for it anyway.

Accordingly, I am an enthusiastic proponent of improving the climate. At least for now.

You're very good at shrouding simplistic positions with torrents of cleverly-written bullshit.

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Originally posted by Arbiter Denial would require more knowledge than I can attest to. The limitations within which climate research takes place require a healthy dose of skepticism. However, that does not mean that it cannot produce persuasive evidence. Indeed, I would say that it has produced persuasive--even compelling--evidence as to the question of the existence of climate change as a phenomenon and the general role of human activity in bringing it about.

Oh ok. it�s just the last post from you I remember on the topic doubted that returning CO2 from whence it came was much of a problem. I inferred from that post that you doubted the relationship between green house gases and their role in trapping solar radiation in the atmosphere, a process that, as far as I am aware, is well understood and predicted by the laws of physics (I wouldn�t know, I am merely parroting).

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Originally posted by Arbiter But that proposition, which is the subject of such intense focus, is relatively meaningless standing on its own. Without more, it provides us with no information about how we ought to respond to the phenomenon, assuming that it is occurring.

Doesn�t it suggest that reducing CO2 emissions is the first place to start? Obviously it doesn�t suggest how to reduce said emissions, but I�m not sure that�s particularly relevant, as we know which ones are currently available to us.

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Originally posted by Arbiter In order to make an informed decision, we would want to know whether, in fact, we can realistically prevent climate change, and, if so, what it would require for us to do so. Alternately, we may be able to affect the magnitude of its effects or the rate at which they occur; here, too, we would want to know precisely what present actions would produce precisely what future effect. Even that would be insufficient, however. Unless we also know to precisely what climate to which we are changing and precisely how the change will proceed, it's impossible to evaluate the costs and benefits associated with the different possible climates that our present choices could produce over time.

But this practically ensures no effort to make decisions at all, because absent another earth to experiment on, the kind of precision you believe is required is simply impossible. It�s basically �this problem is too hard, let�s throw our hands up and give up�. Not that I am advocating extreme reforms or anything, I really don�t care because it won�t be much of a problem for me. But simply as an analytical position, it doesn�t seem to serve much utility other than to support the status quo, when you even admit that it could be a problem.

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Originally posted by Arbiter Much is made of the "scientific consensus" that climate change exists and that humanity is playing a substantial role in it. But without a similar consensus as to all of these critical ancillary questions, consensus as to those general propositions of climate change is completely and utterly meaningless. And, indeed, there is no consensus and only meager evidence with respect to the details.

Do you mean there is no consensus on the ancillary questions and only meagre evidence with respect to the details? Or are you referring to the scientific consensus here?

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Originally posted by Arbiter So, speculate I have, and the tentative conclusions that I have reached are that (1) efforts to prevent climate change are futile and wasteful; and (2) furthermore, they would be undesirable even if they might succeed because the climate we would likely be moving towards is on balance superior to the Earth's current climate; but (3) the rate of change is probably far faster than would be optimal, so it would be a good idea to try to slow the process, provided that the cost of doing so is not excessive; but (4) the prospects for achieving a significant rate reduction in a cost-effective manner are generally poor, barring a fortuitous technological advancement that substantially reduces our reliance on fossil fuels.

I don�t see how you can hold 2 and 3 simultaneously. The very fact that things are arguably moving too fast, (specifically for the adaptation of species and various eco-systems) suggests that for a fairly significant transitory period, the climate would be significantly inferior to a warmer climate achieved via natural processes. Number 4 is a no-brainer.

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Originally posted by Domesticated You're very good at shrouding simplistic positions with torrents of cleverly-written bullshit.

but isn't it just a pleasure to read?

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Originally posted by Domesticated You're very good at shrouding simplistic positions with torrents of cleverly-written bullshit.

Did Halcyon post in this thread?

Hey everyone, Meat is a Philistine! Did he tell you this already? Ok, just making sure you all knew! Wouldn't want you to continue reading all of his awesome posts without knowing that! Thanks for your time!

A-ha, I bloody knew it: Meat doesn't live in Munich, he lives in Manila!

When did you become a father, Lira?

Actually, being German, he just backs any old state that will so vehemently oppose the Jews!

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Originally posted by Domesticated When did you become a father, Lira?

Her name was Lola, and I met her in Copacabana, and she was a showgirl. With yellow feathers in her hair and a dress cut down to there, she was just fifteen years old, and had blond hair and blue eyes. One night, she and her friends decided they were gonna come to Brasilia.

"My parents are away and I'll take their car", she said. Sure, Copacabana is 12 hours away from Brasília by car but it did not intimidate her. While she tried to be a star, and was on her way to Brasília, Tony - her boyfriend - always tended bar. Across a crowded floor, they worked from 8 till 4, they were young and they had each other, who could ask for more?

She and her friends drove along the BR-040 and came to a club in Brasília. They knew the guy at the door and got in. Then she turned around and bumped into me. We had a good time, we danced for hours and hours, and she had a few drinks too!

"Hey", I said, "My room mate is not home and well, I was wondering if you wanna, you know... come to my place. I just don't wanna... I don't wanna be alone". And she said...

"Yes!"

We got into a taxi and went to the UnB dorm rooms, went upstairs and sat on my bed. "Take this pill", I said. And she took it! And then she said - "What did you just give me?". "An aspirin", I said, "didn't you say your head hurt?". And she said...

"Yes! OMG, can you be my daddy?"

And I said...

"Yes!"

That's when I became a father. Don't worry, Tony didn't mind, Scotty doesn't know, and the government doesn't seem to have a trouble with a 15-year-old showgirl making an interstate trip. Gotta love my country!

That chick was hot. Braces cause global warming.

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Originally posted by Zyklon_Jay The same place your music comes from...the sewer.

Pot, meet kettle...




Ese....

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Originally posted by Lira Her name was Lola, and I met her in Copacabana, and she was a showgirl. With yellow feathers in her hair and a dress cut down to there, she was just fifteen years old, and had blond hair and blue eyes. One night, she and her friends decided they were gonna come to Brasilia. "My parents are away and I'll take their car", she said. Sure, Copacabana is 12 hours away from Brasília by car but it did not intimidate her. While she tried to be a star, and was on her way to Brasília, Tony - her boyfriend - always tended bar. Across a crowded floor, they worked from 8 till 4, they were young and they had each other, who could ask for more? She and her friends drove along the BR-040 and came to a club in Brasília. They knew the guy at the door and got in. Then she turned around and bumped into me. We had a good time, we danced for hours and hours, and she had a few drinks too! "Hey", I said, "My room mate is not home and well, I was wondering if you wanna, you know... come to my place. I just don't wanna... I don't wanna be alone". And she said... "Yes!" We got into a taxi and went to the UnB dorm rooms, went upstairs and sat on my bed. "Take this pill", I said. And she took it! And then she said - "What did you just give me?". "An aspirin", I said, "didn't you say your head hurt?". And she said... "Yes! OMG, can you be my daddy?" And I said... "Yes!" That's when I became a father. Don't worry, Tony didn't mind, Scotty doesn't know, and the government doesn't seem to have a trouble with a 15-year-old showgirl making an interstate trip. Gotta love my country!

you wish that was true

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Originally posted by Joss Weatherby you wish that was true

Of course I wish - three pop culture references in a single night!? That's no easy feat!

did you say feet?

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Originally posted by Halcyon+On+On Hey everyone, Meat is a Philistine!

Oh look, it's emo-Hal whining about how nobody understands his "art".

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Originally posted by Lira We got into a taxi and went to the UnB dorm rooms, went upstairs and sat on my bed. "Take this pill", I said. And she took it! And then she said - "What did you just give me?". "An aspirin", I said, "didn't you say your head hurt?". And she said...

I was waiting for the good part. But you failed.

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Originally posted by Meat187 Oh look, it's emo-Hal whining about how nobody understands his "art"

Oh no! Fuck, you suck.

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Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN Oh ok. it�s just the last post from you I remember on the topic doubted that returning CO2 from whence it came was much of a problem. I inferred from that post that you doubted the relationship between green house gases and their role in trapping solar radiation in the atmosphere, a process that, as far as I am aware, is well understood and predicted by the laws of physics (I wouldn�t know, I am merely parroting).

I don't doubt the relationship. I only mean to suggest that merely returning some CO2 to whence it came is unlikely to produce a climate much different than the Earth has seen in the past--a climate in which life thrived, arguably much more so than in the Earth's present climate.

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Doesn�t it suggest that reducing CO2 emissions is the first place to start? Obviously it doesn�t suggest how to reduce said emissions, but I�m not sure that�s particularly relevant, as we know which ones are currently available to us.

Well, it would suggest that if we knew that it was a phenomenon we wanted to hinder, rather than encourage. However, evidence of its existence alone doesn't even tell us whether it's a good thing or a bad thing.

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But this practically ensures no effort to make decisions at all, because absent another earth to experiment on, the kind of precision you believe is required is simply impossible. It�s basically �this problem is too hard, let�s throw our hands up and give up�. Not that I am advocating extreme reforms or anything, I really don�t care because it won�t be much of a problem for me. But simply as an analytical position, it doesn�t seem to serve much utility other than to support the status quo, when you even admit that it could be a problem.

Well, that's the information that we'd ideally like to have available to us. Obviously, it's not all going to be forthcoming.

I'm not suggesting that, therefore, we should abandon trying to address the issue at all. Rather, I'm saying that in order to address the issue meaningfully, we have to step out of the cocoon of a relatively narrow scientific consensus and consider broader issues on which there is not yet any consensus and may never be. We have to tackle thorny questions of fact with information that is far less than what we'd like it to be (to say nothing of many highly subjective questions of valuation).

It's not enough to say: "Climate change is occurring, and our CO2 emissions are contributing to it, therefore we should implement policy X to reduce them." That is a non sequitur. There are arguments worth hearing on the subject, but they have to go further than that and address why a given policy is likely to achieve its objective, what that objective is, and why that objective is one worth pursuing. But no one seems to be making them.

The political and social dialogue on this issue is a wasteland, even by the low standards I've come to expect in such venues. It seems that almost everyone either denies that the phenomenon exists or believes that it does exist and thinks that's the end of the enquiry when it's only just the beginning. It's that attitude that's incredibly frustrating to me.

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Do you mean there is no consensus on the ancillary questions and only meagre evidence with respect to the details? Or are you referring to the scientific consensus here?

It's on the details that there is no consensus and little evidence. An analogous situation would be if all economic experts agreed that housing prices were falling, but they didn't agree how much they were falling by, what the effects would be, or what could be done about it.

So, it's correct to say there's a consensus, but it's a very narrow one and it doesn't really extend to enough information to be useful.

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I don�t see how you can hold 2 and 3 simultaneously. The very fact that things are arguably moving too fast, (specifically for the adaptation of species and various eco-systems) suggests that for a fairly significant transitory period, the climate would be significantly inferior to a warmer climate achieved via natural processes. Number 4 is a no-brainer.

What I mean is that it would be great if we could slow the process without actually trying to stop it. The long-term climate might be superior, but getting there would be less harmful if the process were more gradual. I don't put much stock in the natural/unnatural distinction in this context or any other.

"Natural" phenomena that are believed to have influenced past climate changes are numerous. Some of them are very gradual; others are sudden and catastrophic. We're likely to fall somewhere in the middle, with effects falling somewhere in the middle. I think that's okay, but probably not ideal. I'm skeptical that we can do much about it, though.

Climate change aside, it's probably a good idea to stop polluting the earth.

i found this article interesting

A Real-World Example of Carbon Pricing Benefits Outweighing Costs

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"Evaluations of several energy efficiency and renewable energy programs in the RGGI participating states indicate that these programs provide $3-$4 in savings for every dollar invested. When macroeconomic benefits are considered, the benefits are even greater." ... "At the household and business level, energy efficiency investments enhance consumers� control over their energy use, typically reducing energy bills by 15 to 30 percent."

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rea...eigh-costs.html

Ooh, another climate change thread on a forum!

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It's not enough to say: "Climate change is occurring, and our CO2 emissions are contributing to it, therefore we should implement policy X to reduce them." That is a non sequitur. There are arguments worth hearing on the subject, but they have to go further than that and address why a given policy is likely to achieve its objective, what that objective is, and why that objective is one worth pursuing. But no one seems to be making them. The political and social dialogue on this issue is a wasteland, even by the low standards I've come to expect in such venues. It seems that almost everyone either denies that the phenomenon exists or believes that it does exist and thinks that's the end of the enquiry when it's only just the beginning. It's that attitude that's incredibly frustrating to me.

My thoughts are similar to the above. We need to have an objective and some idea as to what exactly we want to achieve.

We want to advance the human race, but at the same time preserve the earth and its wildlife. For self-preservation this means adapting to new circumstances instead of trying to continue as we are, whilst using Prius' to ease our guilt. Preserving our earth and wildlife must be tackled as a separate issue through conservation. I believe we can develop and not have to plunder the earth in order to do so.

It is of course hardly the easiest objective to achieve, but an objective nonetheless.

However, as someone has already mentioned, overpopulation of the earth is a far more pressing issue, and is a contributing factor to climate change, so tackling that would help us to kill two birds with one stone (an ironic expression, considering the subject).

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