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-- Corona Virus Fears in your area
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Meh. Governments can say or do whatever they want about 'lockdowns,' but they can't force people to start going out again. People will only 'vote with their feet' when they feel it is safe to do so. Governments should focus resources to areas that will reduce the likelihood of future large outbreaks, i.e. building up testing and tracing systems.

Now, if the US and UK had locked down earlier, perhaps we could have prevented this from getting out of control in the first place, allowing us to reopen now like Austria and Denmark have. But, we didn't. Late to close, late to open. Can't wait for the inquiries to begin.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J What's your proposal for an alternative? I've heard this kind of criticism of the lockdown a lot in recent weeks, but I'm unsure of what the alternative is at present. If we go completely back to normal without herd immunity, there will be a massive exponential outbreak that will overwhelm the healthcare system of just about any country in the world.

I am interested to see if herd immunity even applies. We assume if you have had it you would be less likely to get it again...or maybe it will reduce the severity. but the thing hasn't been around long enough to show that is the case.

And I am thinking the next year or 2 will be an exercise in finding out how we can socially interact the safest way, while being able to find and stop little outbreaks. It is crazy how long you can show no symptoms and be contagious to others. And the seemingly random severity among people also makes you not want to get this at all.

I also think its wild to talk about public health in terms of available space in hospitals instead of avoiding infection. I guess because we never have before and it sounds weird. Would we increase the legal alcohol limit for driving because we have enough hospital/morgue space...

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Originally posted by Boomer187 I am interested to see if herd immunity even applies.

I really don't believe it does. As I understand it, relying on a supposed herd immunity with RNA viruses, when it's not herd immunity via vaccine, truly is gambling with lives, and potentially not just those of the old and/or weak. The more people get it, and thus the more there is of the virus, the higher are the chances of it mutating into something more dangerous too.

In the long run, yes, mostly only those viruses that didn't completely eradicate their hosts are left, which I guess should be almost obvious. That doesn't mean that there can't be particularly bad variations of any given RNA virus in the short term, which can still do a lot of damage before their deadliness turns against them.

I suspect we've had a bit of luck in that this particular virus has been reportedly very slow at mutating.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J What's your proposal for an alternative? I've heard this kind of criticism of the lockdown a lot in recent weeks, but I'm unsure of what the alternative is at present. If we go completely back to normal without herd immunity, there will be a massive exponential outbreak that will overwhelm the healthcare system of just about any country in the world. As far as I can see, the main benefit of a lockdown should be buying the time to put a proper testing system in place and driving the numbers down to the level where we can effectively contact trace. But certainly in the UK I have little confidence that our test-and-trace system is going to be fit for purpose or that community infection levels are low enough to keep track of. So that logic would lend credence to the idea we're exiting lockdown too early rather than too late.

What's the alternative is certainly a fair question, but also a somewhat odd one. After all, such sweeping lockdowns were not part of the playbook in dealing with most previous pandemics, and they have not been universally implemented even in this one, as can be seen in countries as diverse as Japan, Laos, Sweden, and Belarus. None of those countries experienced exponential growth in infections that overwhelmed hospitals, so a lockdown was certainly not necessary to avoid that outcome. Instead, to varying degrees they followed what was the WHO's position on how to deal with similar pandemic respiratory illnesses as recently as last year (here). Namely, they focused on hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, and voluntary isolation of sick individuals. In some cases they also employed face mask usage and limitations on mass gatherings, particularly in areas with poor ventilation.

Under the WHO's guidelines, home isolation of even exposed individuals was "not recommended in any circumstances" even during "extraordinary" pandemics. This recommendation was based both on the lack of quality evidence supporting the practice, and because "there is no obvious rationale for this measure, and there would be considerable difficulties in implementing it." Stay-at-home orders for non-exposed individuals were apparently not even considered, likely because the evidence was even weaker and the practice considered too extreme. Such quaint times!

Simply put, lockdowns similar to those imposed in the United States and most of Europe were not previously recommended or even seriously considered, had little to no scientific support, and had only meager precedent in previous pandemic responses. So it seems to me that the question we should really be asking is not what the alternatives are, but instead why lockdowns were even considered to be among the alternatives to begin with.

Incidentally, contact tracing was also "not recommended in any circumstances" by the WHO due to poor evidence of efficacy. Unlike the lockdowns the costs of contact tracing are quite modest. So as long as we're not talking building some kind of panopticon-like surveillance state, I think it's probably worth trying despite the weak evidence of efficacy. But we shouldn't have high expectations for it, and I definitely don't think the hopes of constructing an effective contact tracing regime can justify a protracted lockdown. Even proponents of contact tracing admit that for it to be effective in controlling the spread of the disease, (1) the rate of positive tests must be very low; (2) the percentage of contacts identified must be very high; and (3) the contacts must be identified, tested, and isolated very quickly, generally in less than two days (see here for a very longform version). That is, to be effective, you need to isolate 70-90% of an infected person's contacts--including even brief contacts like random people they crossed paths with in a grocery store--within a day or so. That seems quite unrealistic to me, especially in places like the United States, where half the population is likely to be belligerently uncooperative.

bum_sword_queer

Arbiter, completely random question here, but have you read Machiavelli's Discourses on Livy?

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Originally posted by Arbiter After all, such sweeping lockdowns were not part of the playbook in dealing with most previous pandemics, and they have not been universally implemented even in this one, as can be seen in countries as diverse as Japan, Laos, Sweden, and Belarus. None of those countries experienced exponential growth in infections that overwhelmed hospitals, so a lockdown was certainly not necessary to avoid that outcome. Instead, to varying degrees they followed what was the WHO's position on how to deal with similar pandemic respiratory illnesses as recently as last year (here). Namely, they focused on hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, and voluntary isolation of sick individuals. In some cases they also employed face mask usage and limitations on mass gatherings, particularly in areas with poor ventilation.

Two obvious points occur here:

1. I can only speak with experience of what's happened in my own country, but we certainly tried implementing all of those measures initially, and the number of infections still exploded. So obviously there are additional factors to explain why those measures seem sufficient in certain countries but not in others. Saying "It worked in Sweden" doesn't strike me as sufficient.

2. Regardless of the above, we're living in countries where an exponential outbreak did occur, so the horse has very much bolted on that front. Your contention seems to be that the US, or at least your state, has taken too long to exit lockdown ("That's overdue, to say the least"). Therefore I don't think it's unreasonable to expect you to have an alternative set of measures to replace lockdown in preventing a second peak of cases. Unless, of course, your stance is basically "Let the disease kill who it's going to kill", in which case I don't know why you're bothering quoting the WHO.

Also duh, the main factor is that people are stupid assholes.

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Originally posted by SYSTEM-J Two obvious points occur here: 1. I can only speak with experience of what's happened in my own country, but we certainly tried implementing all of those measures initially, and the number of infections still exploded. So obviously there are additional factors to explain why those measures seem sufficient in certain countries but not in others. Saying "It worked in Sweden" doesn't strike me as sufficient. 2. Regardless of the above, we're living in countries where an exponential outbreak did occur, so the horse has very much bolted on that front. Your contention seems to be that the US, or at least your state, has taken too long to exit lockdown ("That's overdue, to say the least"). Therefore I don't think it's unreasonable to expect you to have an alternative set of measures to replace lockdown in preventing a second peak of cases. Unless, of course, your stance is basically "Let the disease kill who it's going to kill", in which case I don't know why you're bothering quoting the WHO.

I don't think we gave the traditional tools of disease mitigation enough time before locking down to conclude they weren't working. In many places the transmission rate was dropping significantly even before the lockdowns, probably because people had already began behaving much more carefully. Norway's public health institute, for example, recently concluded that it probably could have controlled the disease without a lockdown based on that evidence (source).

It could be that certain densely-populated regions like New York City or London required even stronger interventions. But I tend to think the explosive growth in infections that they saw was mostly a result of implementing even basic precautions too late. That would explain why Tokyo, which never locked down but implemented more modest measures much earlier thanks to the Diamond Princess, never saw growth on the same scale.

Of course you are correct that the virus has now established itself in the US and UK to a degree where we cannot go back and try to replicate Japan's apparent success with lighter measures implemented earlier. I don't know if we can fully prevent a second wave of cases upon reopening. It's a good sign that places which reopened early, such as the state of Georgia, have generally not yet seen the predicted acceleration of infections over a month later. But life there is still hardly "normal," and regional differences may make other places more vulnerable to another spike in infections. Even if a second wave will occur, however, a longer lockdown will only delay it, not prevent it. The lack of a straightforward exit strategy from lockdowns is part of the problem with them, not a reason to prolong them.

I very much hope you are right, because that would mean the very gradual relaxation of lockdown we're currently going through will not result in another explosive growth of cases. There's an awful lot of hand-wringing in the media right now from various public health officials who are claiming we're going too quickly with this.

I hope so too. This virus has repeatedly defied expectations, so it's probably best to be modest about our ability to predict what will happen next.

Most major cities here in the U.S. have been seeing large-scale protests over the past few days following the slaying of George Floyd at the hands of the police. Mask usage has quite high, but it is unclear just how much that helps when in a large crowd for a prolonged period of time, especially with cloth masks. So if we see an increase in cases here within a few weeks, it may be difficult to say whether the increase is caused by the protests, or by those cities reopening more generally.

Conversely if we don't see any increase within three weeks or so, then it would seem to imply that either the masks were very effective or that the risk of outdoor crowds was for some other reason much lower than we believed. Either way it will be hard to draw precise conclusions.

Or we need to test tear gas as a potential vaccine.

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Originally posted by Boomer187 Or we need to test tear gas as a potential vaccine.

To be fair, Hong Kong does have a pretty low infection rate considering its proximity to the batsoup cave. You may very well be onto something.

I'd say we should study the possibility, but these days we'd probably end up with a study run by the company that manufactures the tear gas, using mustard gas on the control group.

May the legacy of Unit 731 live on.

Update from Los Angeles Area:

Looks like my wife is now allowed to return to work (she's a stylist). Our preschool has reopened but we're going to wait till July to see how they work things out. I imagine the will allow my co-workers and I to return to the office eventually.

What's different? My wife doesn't want to return to work. She's enjoyed the time home in this little "fantasy" world that we've been in for the past few months. We've actually gotten to live as a family instead of passing each other by at nights and only having family time on Sundays (the only day we have off together). Sooooo she may consider changing careers again. I too realized that maybe there's something better out there for me. I LOVE the company I work for but the job I do (Account Management) is meh. Why waste anymore time?

My thoughts of the day as I sit at my work laptop trying to avoid working on a Friday.

Ha Ha. your wife is about to dump more financial responsibility on you. I'm laughing through pain.

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Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal Update from Los Angeles Area: Looks like my wife is now allowed to return to work (she's a stylist). Our preschool has reopened but we're going to wait till July to see how they work things out. I imagine the will allow my co-workers and I to return to the office eventually. What's different? My wife doesn't want to return to work. She's enjoyed the time home in this little "fantasy" world that we've been in for the past few months. We've actually gotten to live as a family instead of passing each other by at nights and only having family time on Sundays (the only day we have off together). Sooooo she may consider changing careers again. I too realized that maybe there's something better out there for me. I LOVE the company I work for but the job I do (Account Management) is meh. Why waste anymore time? My thoughts of the day as I sit at my work laptop trying to avoid working on a Friday.

Makes one long for a society similar to the one in Manna by Marshall Brain. The possibilities are interesting: https://www.marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

I'm back at work on Monday, working from home for the foreseeable future, although I'll be able to go into the office if I need anything. Working from home is going to be a pain in the arse, and I've got rather used to being paid to do nothing, but it's nice not to have to worry about job security anymore.

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Originally posted by Lews Saving this whole quote for posterity.

Lol excellent foresight here.

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Originally posted by Silky Johnson Lol excellent foresight here.

Gotta save gems when one finds them.


On the old Corona front, a CDC survey of Americans found that 39% were fucking stupid:

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Thirty-nine percent reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by CDC for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (2), including application of bleach to food items (e.g., fruits and vegetables) (19%); use of household cleaning and disinfectant products on hands or skin (18%); misting the body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray (10%); inhalation of vapors from household cleaners or disinfectants (6%); and drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water, and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions (4% each).

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Gharpure R, Hunter CM, Schnall AH, et al. Knowledge and Practices Regarding Safe Household Cleaning and Disinfection for COVID-19 Prevention — United States, May 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 5 June 2020. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6923e2external

Daycares got the green light to reopen this Friday. We aren't sending our daughter back for another month, so we can observe and assess what happens between now and then. We fear the second wave and don't want to be too hasty, so may postpone even longer.

It's getting tough for me now though, between work and being home with our daughter on off days. I'm on the brink of exhaustion.

In other news, pay stubs go out today, so I'll see if I finally receive my pandemic pay or not. Huzzah!

Although I'm missing being able to do whatever I want (as long as it doesn't involve leaving the house or interacting with other humans), I am enjoying being back at work far more than I thought I would. It's nice to feel like there is still a real world out there. Just ringing my colleagues up and having a whinge and a laugh about irritating projects coming up made me feel an enormous sense of relief.

With that said, I'm hideously unproductive at home. The jobs are mounting up like Tetris blocks at the moment.

It sounds crazy, but try fasting when working at home. Production curbs thoughts of hunger and i actually find myself feeling more clearheaded fasting as well. Work is from home, covid or not here. Another good trick is having someone you want to escape from also in the home during the hours you want to slay shit.

My current fear is losing all the money I've won in the stock market in the last few weeks. It's been a roller coaster ride. Should've cashed out the villa in Ibiza.

It was raining money last week. I made 10k on my 1k investment. This week I'm down 6k. First time playing the market. It's fun learning and chatting shit with other retail investors. Bunch of idiots lol.

Still up but fuck. Idk whether I'm high more from the profits or the dopamine hits. On top of that I've been stacked with work and dealing with the six-week growth spurt.

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Originally posted by Dykes_on_Jay It sounds crazy, but try fasting when working at home.

Works for me. Used to eat breakfast first thing after working out. Now I wait until early afternoon after I've finished my workday.

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