TranceAddict Forums (www.tranceaddict.com/forums)
- Political Discussion / Debate
-- Al-Queda interview!
Pages (2): [1] 2 »

Al-Queda interview!

This is something that I found on another musicboard a few months ago.
Keep in mind thought, that this could be a hoax.
Prolly is just that but it is indeed scary. :/



Cut' n Paste:


The following interview was conducted by a reporter for the Al-Jazeera network with the third-in-command of the Al Queda organization, Mr. Mohammed Al-Asuquf.

Al-Asuquf's background is impressive; a doctorate in physics and masters in international economics. In the interview, he talks of Al Queda's plans with total detachment, with deep knowledge and an unshakeable commitment to his cause. This interview was sent to Abel-Bari Atwan, chief editor of Al Quds, an Arabic-language newspaper published in London, but was never printed, due to its highly revealing [inflammatory?] contents. A copy of the interview came to Foz-do-Iguacu, and was translated into Portuguese by a university professor in the city's Arab community. This is probably the only existing version of this interview not in Arabic.


Al-Jazeera: What is the objective of the Al Queda network?

Al-Asuquf: To destroy the Great Satan, that is, the United States and Israel.

Al-Jazeera: Why?

Al-Asuquf: The USA over the past 60 years has been impregnating [infecting] the world with its arrogance, greed and malfeasance. It is the incarnation of all that is evil. The people of this planet don't deserve this torture.

Al-Jazeera: Isn't this view somewhat one-sided?

Al-Asuquf: No; one only has to observe recent events. The disrespect of the Kyoto treaty; the case of the Permanent Court of International Justice, their inaction with regards to our Palestinian brothers; the financial greed and absurd speculations in Third World countries; the complete indifference to other oppressed people and countless other situations which all of the world's leaders well know. And on top of all that, the Bush doctrine of "shoot first and ask questions later." This is an unacceptable abuse and will therefore have very grave consequences.

Al-Jazeera: But isn't the development and influence of America the fruit of its own competence?

Al-Asuquf: Competence in extortion, competence in subjugation, competence in lying. After the Second World War, the USA was the only industrialized country with its manufacturing infrastructure intact. Loaning money like a good loan shark, it ended up becoming a very rich and powerful country; however, its greed remained undiminished. Today, Americans live like Maharajas [King], wasting more than any other people, spending more than 880 billion per year just on gambling. They've lost any notion of spirituality and live in constant sin. With each passing day the USA demonstrates that it doesn't know how to live with other peoples; for this, it deserves destruction.

Al-Jazeera: Wouldn't it be easier to simply assassinate President George Bush?

Al-Asuquf: In the first place, it would do no good, other than turning him into a martyr. When you face a powerful enemy, the best strategy is not to kill him, but to make him lose his leadership due to his incompetence,and let him live to watch this unfold.

Al-Jazeera: Does the Al Queda network have the military capacity to make war on the United States?

Al-Asuquf: If we analyze history, we will see that all great wars, before they were started, were based on previously established concepts [of war]. But if we observe well, we will see that these concepts and strategies came to nothing, since a new type of war was ultimately waged. An example is theconstruction of the Maginot line by the French before the First World War, which, in reality proved to be completely useless against the invading forces. Aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and spy satellites will be useless in the next war.

Al-Jazeera: American authorities hold more than 1,000 people Suspected of terrorism since September 11th. Won't this compromise Al Queda's plans?

Al-Asuquf: Of those imprisoned, perhaps 20 to 30 percent belong to Al Queda. Moreover, they are from the second echelon. We have more than 500 members of the first echelon and 800 from the second, inside the United States.

Al-Jazeera: What do you mean by first and second echelons?

Al-Asuquf: In the first echelon are Al Queda members who have been in the United States for more than 10 years, many married with children. They have detailed knowledge of our plans and are just waiting for a phone call. They are also known as "sleepers." Those of the second echelon have arrived in the last five years and have no idea of our plans.

Al-Jazeera: Are even those who are married, with children, ready to die with their families?

Al-Asuquf: Yes. All of them are ready to die. Long live September 11th..

Al-Jazeera: What was September 11th to Al Queda's overall plans?

Al-Asuquf: As a general step, it was just the beginning. It was a way of calling the world's attention to what is still to come.

Al-Jazeera: How many members does Al Queda have?

Al-Asuquf: In the first echelon, about 5,000; in the second, about 20,000, all over the world.

Al-Jazeera: In the detention camp at Guantanamo, are there any Members of the first echelon?

Al-Asuquf: No, in fact, many of those there are not even Al Queda members.

Al-Jazeera: How does Al Queda intend to destroy the most powerful nation in history?

Al-Asuquf: It's a question of logistics. Using its own poison, that is, attacking the heart of what they consider the most important thing in the world: money.

Al-Jazeera: How so?

Al-Asuquf: The American economy is an economy of false appearances. There is no real economic ballast to the American economy. The American GDP of is something around 810 trillion, of which just 1 percent represents agriculture, and just 24 percent represents industry. Therefore, 75 percent of the American GDP is service and most of this is financial speculation. For those who understand economics, and it appears that the American Secretary of the Treasury, Paul O'Neil, doesn't or doesn't see it, it's enough to say that the USA acts like a huge "dot-com," and dollars, strictly speaking, are its shares.

Al-Jazeera: Can you explain that?

Al-Asuquf: The value of a company's shares is directly proportional to the profitability of the enterprise. When a business is just a service provider and doesn't produce any durable goods, the value of its shares depends on its credibility. Which is to say that if the credibility of the USA were shaken, its shares (the dollar) would fall with incredible rapidity and the entire American economy would

Al-Jazeera: How can you be so sure of this?

Al-Asuquf: On a smaller scale, it's exactly what large financial groups do to the countries of the third world to reap profits in one month that Swiss banks couldn't get in four or five years.

Al-Jazeera: So how will Al Queda shock the American economy to this point?

Al-Asuquf: By provoking a deficit of between 850 and 870 trillion dollars, the equivalent of the United States' GDP for five to seven years.

Al-Jazeera: How will this be done?

Al-Asuquf: With the destruction of the seven largest American cities, along with other measures.

Al-Jazeera: By what means will this be done?

Al-Asuquf: Using atomic bombs.

Al-Jazeera: With all of the security in the USA, how, hypothetically, will these bombs be smuggled onto American soil?

Al-Asuquf: They won't be smuggled in, they're already there.

Al-Jazeera: What are you saying?

Al-Asuquf: There are already seven nuclear devices on American soil which were put in place before September 11th and are ready to be detonated.

Al-Jazeera: How did they get in to the USA?

Al-Asuquf: Before September 11, American security was a fiasco, and even after, were it necessary, we could manage to smuggle bombs into the United States. They entered through seaports, as normal cargo.

Al-Jazeera: How is that possible?

Al-Asuquf: A nuclear device is no bigger than a refrigerator; therefore, it can be easily camouflaged as one. Millions of cargo containers arrive in seaports each day, and no matter how efficient security is, it's impossible to check, search through and examine each container.

Al-Jazeera: Where did these atomic bombs come from?

Al-Asuquf: They were purchased on the black market.

Al-Jazeera: From whom?

Al-Asuquf: We bought five from the defunct Soviet Union and two more from Pakistan.

Al-Jazeera: How is it possible to buy an atomic bomb? Isn't there security?

Al-Asuquf: Before 1989 it was practically impossible, however after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Russian army began a process of self destruction, and some high generals began to lose their privileges, and therefore, highly susceptible to corruption. Even General Lebeb, now deceased, and Hans Blix, the head of the arms inspection commission of the United Nations, have stated this, notwithstanding denials by Russian Defense Minister Seguey Ivanov.

Al-Jazeera: How much does a nuclear bomb cost?

Al-Asuquf: Somewhere around 8200 million.

Al-Jazeera: How did Al Queda get this money?

Al-Asuquf: We have numerous sponsors.

Al-Jazeera: Who are they?

Al-Asuquf: There are a number of countries which support us, and also numerous wealthy individuals.

Al-Jazeera: Are all of these countries Arab?

Al-Asuquf: No, there are some European countries as well which have an interest in the fall of the USA.

Al-Jazeera: Who are these wealthy individuals?

Al-Asuquf: People who are also tired of watching the USA suck the wealth out of the rest of the world.

Al-Jazeera: Is Saddam Hussein one of them?

Al-Asuquf: You could say that he's just one of the collaborators, through Abdul Tawab Mullah Hawaish, his vice-prime minister and the person responsible for Iraq's arms program.

Al-Jazeera: Are these atomic bombs powerful ones?

Al-Asuquf: The five Russian devices are from the old T-3 missiles, also known as RD-107s, and their potency is something around 100 kilotons each, that is, 5 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb. The Pakistani bombs are less powerful, somewhere around 10 kilotons.

Al-Jazeera: Can't the bombs be detected and disarmed by American authorities?

Al-Asuquf: No, in spite of their age they've undergone modernization and are well hidden. Even if they were found, they have autodetonation> 56y >provisions should anything get close to them. Even electromagnetic pulses would be incapable of deactivating them.

Al-Jazeera: Don't they emit radiation? Can't they be detected?

Al-Asuquf: No. They are wrapped in thick leaden cases.

Al-Jazeera: A suspected Pakistani ship was recently searched and all that was found were lead bars. Does this have anything to do with the bombs?

Al-Asuquf: Yes, however that lead was just an extra layer, and was not essentially necessary.

Al-Jazeera: How will the bombs be detonated?

Al-Asuquf: There are numerous methods, a cell-phone call, radio frequency, seismic shocks or by timer.

Al-Jazeera: Once detonated, how many deaths will be caused by these bombs?

Al-Asuquf: It depends, since our plans are very malleable.

Al-Jazeera: So what is the entire plan?

Al-Asuquf: The beginning will be the detonation of a nuclear device, which will cause the death of between 800 thousand and one million people and create chaos on a scale never seen before. During this chaos, two or three cropsprayers that are now dismantled and stored in granaries [silos?] close to little-used highways in the countryside will take off on suicide missions to spray two or three large American cities with smallpox. That means that once the smallpox has been identified, all airports and seaports will be closed by quarantine. Land borders will likewise be shut down.. Not one airplane, ship or vehicle will enter or leave the United States. This will cause total chaos. White House Press secretary Ari Fleischman will be very busy.

Al-Jazeera: But the American government has guaranteed that within five days it could produce enough smallpox vaccine to inoculate the entire population.

Al-Asuquf: There will be simultaneous suicide attacks against the Vaccine production plants.

Al-Jazeera: Which will be the first city?

Al-Asuquf: The first city will be that in which optimal conditions present themselves, for example, clear skies, and winds of eight miles-per- hour or less in the direction of the country's center so that radioactive dust can contaminate the maximum possible area.

Al-Jazeera: Will this attack annihilate the USA?

Al-Asuquf: No. But the process will have begun. Who will buy food products from the United States knowing they may have been contaminated by radiation? Who will travel to the United States knowing the possibility of contracting smallpox? Who will continue to invest in American institutions? Just as with the World Trade Center, it will be simply a question of time before the entire economic structure collapses and turns to dust. If our objectives are reached with one bomb and the smallpox, probably we'll save the lives of others, however that's risky [unlikely?], and it's probable that six more bombs will be detonated, one per week, and other attacks with chemical weapons will be carried out.

Al-Jazeera: How many innocent people will die?

Al-Asuquf: According to estimates made by me and Ayman Al-Zawahiro, somewhere around 15 million due to the atomic bombs and their radiation. Of those exposed to smallpox, 25 percent will die, approximately five million, and many more due to the ensuing chaos and disorder.

Al-Jazeera: What about the American military response?

Al-Asuquf: There will practically be none. Even if five or ten cities were chosen at random to be destroyed, that would still be a small price to pay. The problem is the economic despair will be so great that even Economizing by not using arms unnecessarily will occur, since the liquidity of American goods will be almost zero and at that point the United States will make more selling its Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, which cost about five billion dollars, to Turkey or Italy for one billion dollars, since the country will so urgently need to recapitalize, though it will be too late. Moreover, how will the morale of American soldiers be knowing that their entire families have died and their country no longer exists. Fight for what?

Al-Jazeera: And won't the global economy also be ruined?

Al-Asuquf: In the beginning it will be very difficult; a serious economic crisis will ensue. However, without the United States, the world will soon arise in a more just and fraternal manner.

Al-Jazeera: And Israel?

Al-Asuquf: As they say... it will be dessert.

Al-Jazeera: Does bin Laden's spokesman, Sulaiman Abu Gheith, know that you are giving this interview?

Al-Asuquf: It was he and bin Laden who suggested I give it.

Al-Jazeera: Osama bin Laden is still alive?

Al-Asuquf: He is quite healthy, alongside his commanders Mohammed Atef and Khalid Shaik Mohammed and Mullah Omar.

Al-Jazeera: Aren't you fearful that Al Queda's plans will be discovered?

Al-Asuquf: The plan is already in its countdown, and nothing can stop it.

Al-Jazeera: Not even if the United States asks forgiveness and changes its attitudes?

Al-Asuquf: That won't happen, and even if it did, it's too late.

Al-Jazeera: When will the attack begin?

Al-Asuquf: I can't reveal that. Allah Akbar.>

Al-Jazeera: When will the attack begin?

- I can't reveal that, Allah Akbar says Al-Asuquf as he jumps into the batmobile and drives away.

in all honesty... this interview really scared me when i was reading.. it sounds to sophisticated to be made up... o dont know... its just freaky man

off course these people aren't stupid and uneducated as the western media portrays them.

Yes, this interview does sound authentic. Lots of what he says makes sense, and the sleeper agents may very well already be in the US. The only question is whether they have nukes or not. If they have them on US soil, there's unfortunately nothing left to stop them. I hope the guy is just bluffing.

Re: Al-Queda interview!

quote:

Originally posted by robstar Al-Asuquf: The American economy is an economy of false appearances. There is no real economic ballast to the American economy. The American GDP of is something around 810 trillion, of which just 1 percent represents agriculture, and just 24 percent represents industry. Therefore, 75 percent of the American GDP is service and most of this is financial speculation. For those who understand economics, and it appears that the American Secretary of the Treasury, Paul O'Neil, doesn't or doesn't see it, it's enough to say that the USA acts like a huge "dot-com," and dollars, strictly speaking, are its shares. Al-Jazeera: Can you explain that? Al-Asuquf: The value of a company's shares is directly proportional to the profitability of the enterprise. When a business is just a service provider and doesn't produce any durable goods, the value of its shares depends on its credibility. Which is to say that if the credibility of the USA were shaken, its shares (the dollar) would fall with incredible rapidity and the entire American economy would

Ok just to clarify, "GDP covers the goods and services produced by labor and poperty located in the United States" meaning that income from foreign reciepts are subtracted. Financial speculation or whatever is not a component of GDP. Indicators are employment, productivity, industry output, and investment in equipment and structures.

Additionally the credibility of a services industry isn't dependant on the currency with which it trades services with ... its credibility is derived from the the the value of the SERVICE it provides.

At any rate I tried to get an email address of the editor for al-jazeera from the english site but no dice ... anyone speak arabic who's willing to find contact info from the arabic site to confirm this? Otherwise I'll treat it as well written fiction

Edit: Oh yes sources .... http://www.bea.gov/bea/articles/NATIONAL/NIPA/1991/0891od.pdf

Quite laughable that this al-queada knows more about economics than greenspan and the treasury secretary.

Re: Al-Queda interview!

Well, this was somewhat of an eye opener. Not that my eyes needed opening, just that i was getting sick of the internet.

quote:

Originally posted by robstar ... Al-Jazeera: And won't the global economy also be ruined? Al-Asuquf: In the beginning it will be very difficult; a serious economic crisis will ensue. However, without the United States, the world will soon arise in a more just and fraternal manner. ...

This is the biggest problem to this plan. While I never assumed that al-qaeda was 'ignorant' this idea that destroying the US economy will benefit the world and lead to a more 'just and fraternal' way of life is bullshit. Things change but everything stays the same. Notice 'fraternal'...I would suppose that that means that women arent involved in this new way of life! Things will be peachy then. The US may be 'impregnating' the world with some bullshit, but it certainly 'impregnates' the world with a shitload of capital, and when that money disappears the whole world will go to shit, no Arabian oil capitalists can save the whole planet. Though sadly it seems al-qaeda is too convinced things weren't bad enough already... |

Isnt it funny that Al-Asuquf suggests that destroying the US economy will benefit the world when in fact the destruction of the US would lead to the end of the Arabic oil empires, and therefore destroy the economies of entire arabic region. Hence, we will see the end of funding for Al-Qaeda, and funding for many terrorist groups.
These terrorist groups cannot survive without America's influence on the world. And how these groups hope to impose an islamic eutopia in a time of economic and social chaos, without any funding, is beyond me.

Money talks, and bullshit walks.

Looks like a reasonable interview. But I have reason to believe its very fake. Al-Asuquf is not a traditional Pakistani name and in such case, I could not see a person from a non-India bordering country using the word "Maharajas," which stems from Hindi, a very Indian language.

Yeah, it's probably a hoax but it does put things in perspective.
If it is that easy to transport a nuclearwar head all over the world, it's no big deal moving it to your neighboring countries.

LOL nuclear bombs already planted???

Come on!!! This is clearly B.S., pure and simple.

quote:

Originally posted by Alccode LOL nuclear bombs already planted??? Come on!!! This is clearly B.S., pure and simple.

Lets hope so!
But it isn't IMPOSSIBLE.

Sounds like its bogus to me. Like a hollywood movie script.

And even if this guy really did say this and it wasnt written up by some guy with too much time on his hands Al-Queda isnt that powerful to do all the things it says.

American is a paper tiger and its power and credibility has been diminishing for years. It wont need any help from Al-Queda, nuclear weapons or otherwise to diminish America's ability to control the world economy.

quote:

Originally posted by rupert Sounds like its bogus to me. Like a hollywood movie script.

^^ That's what I thought too. Too movie-like, but then I remembered 9/11 and THAT was also too "movie-like" yet it happened.

Not saying that 7 nukes are going to blow up the 7 largest U.S. cities though! That's just crazy-talk. (lol)

quote:

American is a paper tiger and its power and credibility has been diminishing for years.

Umm...I beg to differ. Proof? Turn on your t.v.

quote:

Originally posted by Alccode ^^ That's what I thought too. Too movie-like, but then I remembered 9/11 and THAT was also too "movie-like" yet it happened.

That was a very good observation.... i rememeber everyone that first saw the images from new york comparing that to an action movie. People running from the plumes of smoke, chaos, screaming, planes slamming into building etc..

What a horrible day

quote:

Originally posted by D'Paul Looks like a reasonable interview. But I have reason to believe its very fake. Al-Asuquf is not a traditional Pakistani name and in such case, I could not see a person from a non-India bordering country using the word "Maharajas," which stems from Hindi, a very Indian language.

Maharaja is used in arabic, it means indian king. And about Al-Asuquf (i would love to see it written in arabic), muslim clerics have arabic sounding names, even if they're not arabic.

quote:

Originally posted by ahlamalek Maharaja is used in arabic, it means indian king. And about Al-Asuquf (i would love to see it written in arabic), muslim clerics have arabic sounding names, even if they're not arabic.

Interesting, didn't know that the word had travelled so far. I understand your muslim clerics point, but with all the contact I've had with Pakistanis (my family is from the state of Punjab in India), I really haven't come across a name similar to that. Of course, I can't speak for all of Pakistan.

you can do a Google search which shows that the Al-Asuquf "interview" is a fake.

quote:

Umm...I beg to differ. Proof? Turn on your t.v.

That the USA was able to topple a hated dictator who had no effective army and no airforce doesnt scare anyone.

People used to think the Soviet Union was extremely powerful and would always be around. It had a massive army and airforce.

It spent beyond its means investing in weapons rather than people.

Now look at it.

quote:

Originally posted by rupert That the USA was able to topple a hated dictator who had no effective army and no airforce doesnt scare anyone. People used to think the Soviet Union was extremely powerful and would always be around. It had a massive army and airforce. It spent beyond its means investing in weapons rather than people. Now look at it.

That's a poor example. The US spent MORE money on weapons than the Soviet Union at the time, AND it experienced widespread economic growth at the same time. The US economy is not in a recession, productivty is actually increasing:
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi...=17mr03.txt.pdf

Unemployment is still far lower than levels in Germany, France, and much of Europe, and inflation is low. So how exactly is the US economy a paper tiger? Because if it is I'd hate to see what you call the other world economies.

Haha, people, face it, the U.S. is here to stay no matter how much you might not like that.

I guess the only real question is just how far it will go in terms of dominance.

quote:

Unemployment is still far lower than levels in Germany, France, and much of Europe, and inflation is low. So how exactly is the US economy a paper tiger? Because if it is I'd hate to see what you call the other world economies.

Appearances are deceptive.

The reasons why america is a declining power are numerous but I will try to keep complex economic issues short.

During most of the Cold war america was the worlds largest creditor nation. America was the worlds largest investor and had the worlds strongest economy. It could afford to wage long wars. In those days there was a relatively closed capital market, a relatively closed currency market and trade was far more regulated and controlled than it is today.

Now it cant. Not forever anyway. America has very very serious structural problems with its economy (which isnt to say that other countries dont but we are talking about america here)


1) It runs very large trade deficits, which will only get larger

2) it runs increasing federal government debt to pay for an ever increasing military budget having soldiers in more and more countries. This debt will only get larger.

3) ever increasing state government debt. As the federal government diverts fund to pay for defence and tax cuts to the rich it reduces the amount it pays to the states. Many states in the 90's lowered their own state taxes. Which now means many states cannot make ends meet. They obviously either have to go into greater debt or cut essential services.

4) an ever increase divide between the rich and the poor. This issue is important because you need increasing wealth across the board both to support the trade debt and the budget debt. Yes america is getting wealthier but not where it really counts amongst people who pay taxes. The rich and the major corporations dont pay taxes and there is only so many plasma tv's or BMWs that a rich person can buy.

But you say, most americas are still able to make ends meet, productivity still keeps going up. Sure, but this is illusory. Real wages amongst the lower to middle classes havent gone up for twenty years but they can maintain there living standards because of low interest rates. This has lead to very large levels of household debt.

So this means you have a) a government that lives beyond its means, b) an economy that spends more than it earns c) individuals who borrow to make ends meet.

Using the unemployment rate to compare living standards the US and Europe is misleading. America uses the prison system to get unemployed people off the streets. If you add the 2 million people in the corrections system you would see the unemployment rates would be comparable.

4) an overvalued currency.

5) an overvalued equity market

So what does all of the above mean. America is dependant on the rest of the world to buy its debt. And what happens when foreigners decide that america isnt credit safe . Because america does not have restrictions on the movement of capital there will be Capital flight. People will pull their money out of america in droves just like what happened to all those third world countries in the nineties.

America uses us to pay for its defence program and when we decide that federal bonds arent an attractive asset to hold compared to what I get elsewhere, america will have to take drastic steps to reduce its debt. America does not have the capacity to wage large wars because its financial situation. This is not something I make up Greenspan even hinted at the risk of capital flight in one of his speeches.

There is a complex relationship between debt, interest rates and currency valuations which I wont go into here but I stand exactly behind what I said. America is a paper tiger that can afford to fight weak countries like Afghanistan or Iraq who cant really fight back on any really effective level and thats it.

quote:

Originally posted by rupert 1) It runs very large trade deficits, which will only get larger

It's true that America runs at a trade deficit however, it has been operating at a trade deficit for the past 2 decades if not more. This in itself is not indicative of anything. If you look at US owned interests abroad as opposed foreign intrests owned in the US you will find the trend to be stabilizing with no imminent drop as indicated by a failing economy:
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi...=37mr03.txt.pdf

quote:

2) it runs increasing federal government debt to pay for an ever increasing military budget having soldiers in more and more countries. This debt will only get larger.

Once again, a large federal deficit is nothing new. The government has been running at a deficit since the beginning of time yet I fail to see a collapse of the economy. As a matter of fact, the deficit continued during the time of the Clinton era until the very end ... if I remember there were huge economic bounds during that time period.

http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi...=32mr03.txt.pdf

I will continue this argument when I'm less drunk and able to look up the trend of wage distributions. I'll come to a preliminary conclusion however and sincerely doubt that the US economy is a paper tiger in any aspect in its current situation.

Additionally it would be welcome if you provided economic data to back up your claims

quote:

Once again, a large federal deficit is nothing new. The government has been running at a deficit since the beginning of time yet I fail to see a collapse of the economy.

I doubt it would collapse either. What I am saying is if capital flight becomes a real issue then americas military will be all for nothing because america cant afford it.

No, the deficit isnt new. The fact that the world has completely open capital markets is. The market has a way of imposing "discipline" on countries that consistently run deficits.

Rather than post specific links on each issue. You can find information which supports a lot of my contentions at


http://www.epinet.org/ - policy institute, americans would call it liberal, i would call it mainstream.


http://www.fguide.org/resources.htm - has many, many useful links that corroborate what I said.


http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications...trends2015.pdf. Doesnt talk about what I said but is a policy document released by the CIA which talks about risks to america. Gives a good understanding of how policy elites see america.

On general economic issues, in particular the state of the american economy I highly recommend anything written by Warren Buffet the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway which can be found on the Berkshire Hathaway webpage and Stephen Roach chief economist of Morgan Stanley (do a google search or regularly pick up the WSJ). In particular anything by Warren Buffet should be paid close attention to.

He has remarked critically about the tax cuts plan, and has warned about the risk posed by the derivative markets. (which could trigger capital flight)

On a more conservative note Im sure a Google search on George Soros would provide many articles on the risks of the global currency market.

People have no real understanding of how brittle the global economy really is. What happened to Thailand, Brazil can easily happen to the USA or any of the other 1st world countries that investors suddenly get wary of.

Markets operate on sentiment not reality. Anyone who tells you that markets are perfect is a liar or a rightwing lunatic. If something dire happened in the USA, like another Long Term Capital Management disaster, it could lead to a stampede of investors out of america. Maybe it wont happen but it is something that I, if I were an american politician would be seriously concerned about.

quote:

Originally posted by rupert I doubt it would collapse either. What I am saying is if capital flight becomes a real issue then americas military will be all for nothing because america cant afford it. No, the deficit isnt new. The fact that the world has completely open capital markets is. The market has a way of imposing "discipline" on countries that consistently run deficits. Rather than post specific links on each issue. You can find information which supports a lot of my contentions at

Well I looked up your sources but I couldn't find anything pertinent. It would be a lot more helpful to reference directly to your arguments.

Anyway what differentiates this "open capital markets" from the capital markets in the 70's or 80's? The US was operating at significantly higher deficit levels and there were no repurcussions from world markets so I fail to see what kind of impact today's market will have on today's relatively insignicicant deficits.

Secondly, I fail to see how a flight of capital would occurr. Perhaps if there were political instability in the US government such that foreign investors would be apprehensive about investing capital here, then MAYBE I could see such a scenario happening. But how would it happen otherwise? A devaluation in the dollar? That would only attract MORE foreign capital investments since the European currency would valued so highly against the dollar. Although that would dramatically increase the import costs, that is a separate issue from capital flight.

quote:

People have no real understanding of how brittle the global economy really is. What happened to Thailand, Brazil can easily happen to the USA or any of the other 1st world countries that investors suddenly get wary of.

How could they occur in US markets? The economic situation is so drastically different between these markets that it's absurd to imply such scnearios could impact US or European markets in a similar matter.

quote:

Well I looked up your sources but I couldn't find anything pertinent. It would be a lot more helpful to reference directly to your arguments.

you can find the facts that I use to base my assumptions( which admittedly is all they are) on the information I provided. There is plenty of information on the wealth gap, trade deficits etc on the information I provided. I stand by my statement that america is far weaker now than it was 20 years ago, even with the fall of the Soviet Union because america is far more indebted than it was previously. Its dependance on imports is a major liability.

As Warren Buffett once said "it doesnt matter that no-one else agrees with you provided your beliefs are solidly based"

And the facts are america has many of the same fundamental characteristics in its economy as others in the 90's that led to capital flight.

You want information on capital flows, trade issues, the OECD and IMF webpages will have plenty of useful information.

quote:

Secondly, I fail to see how a flight of capital would occurr. Perhaps if there were political instability in the US government such that foreign investors would be apprehensive about investing capital here, then MAYBE I could see such a scenario happening.

Well as I mentioned previously a major crisis in the derivatives market could do it. Dont believe that there is a problem. Do a Google search on the keywords Warren Buffett and derivatives market will give you plenty of food for thought.

No one forsaw the Long Term Capital Management disaster, no one forsaw the fall of the Soviet Union (well they did but no one listened to them) until overnight it collapsed.

quote:

How could they occur in US markets? The economic situation is so drastically different between these markets that it's absurd to imply such scnearios could impact US or European markets in a similar matter.

Put simply government debt and the trade debt are real problems and the spectre of debt deflation in the US is not imaginary its real. And that spectre of debt and americas indebtedness to foreigners hamper americas ability to act completely unilaterally and will also hamper economic growth. Look at Japan to see the impact of unserviceable debt. America is dependant on debt to service its expenditure and that dependancy creates weakness. Dont believe me, again just watch CNBC or pick up the WSJ and im sure they will mention trade and debt issues with some concern.

Powered by: vBulletin
Copyright © 2000-2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.