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The future of Israel?

Secular Jews have an average of 2 kids per family.

Hasidic Jews have an average of 7 kids per family.

Is this demographic trend likely to turn Israel away from the West, and make the country more like some of its neighbours?

That is, more traditional, orthodox, fundamentalist, not as inclusive in society, more 'clear channelling' of women's roles as caretakers of the family.

Or is it a blip on the radar.

Or will it be an additional internal challenge that Israel must deal with in addition to the pressure from without?

I think the latter.
But there can't be some Jews good enough to die for their country, and some who aren't. Not in a country that small and so beset on all sides.

Discuss.
A little help from those close to the situation, plz.

http://www.avnery-news.co.il/english/

This website will provide a lot of the information you are looking for with regards to the future of Israel.

It's not just about Israel. If you look at most other countries, liberal and educated people on average have less children than ortodox or uneducated ones.

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 It's not just about Israel. If you look at most other countries, liberal and educated people on average have less children than ortodox or uneducated ones.

Well, naturally

In a capitalist system such as that which is becoming the world standard having children is an economic burden instead of a bonus like it was in agrarian days.

That's why the only demographics you see with high birth rates are:

A) Orthodox religious people who believe God sanctions it
B) People living in 'Third World' nations with no good contraception
C) Rich people who feel like it
D) Poor people strung out on drugs who aren't really aware of what they're doing

The educated people realise that children, though important, are also extremely expensive and choose to just have one or two. As a side benefit though I think a lower birth rate means you have parents able to take a more personal interest in each child, and that means potential for better end results.

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Originally posted by rupert http://www.avnery-news.co.il/english/ This website will provide a lot of the information you are looking for with regards to the future of Israel.

Wow... you never seize to amaze me Rupert.
Posting such sites on your behalf only show's me (and others for that matter), the worthless content that is piled-up in your worthless.... I mean your, brainwashed-Israeli-hating brain.

Try reading something with some real content in it besides this awful bullshit being promoted by the pro-Arab camp, alongside the ultra leftists and 'peaceniks'.

Re: The future of Israel?

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Originally posted by Wurm Secular Jews have an average of 2 kids per family. Hasidic Jews have an average of 7 kids per family. Is this demographic trend likely to turn Israel away from the West, and make the country more like some of its neighbours?

This trend has always existed... and it never pulled up away from the west... the fact that we have more secular Jew's who are having less kids than the more 'orthadox' these days means that we are moving more into Americanization. Less kids, more money.

Israel will never turn into a country like its neightbours... for one, we dont have a fundamentalist government that is run by religious figures who believe the destruction of everyone who's not muslim is justifiable, and such an act of terror will be awarded in a world to come. Yes, they truely are weirdo's!

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Israel will never turn into a country like its neightbours... for one, we dont have a fundamentalist government that is run by religious figures who believe the destruction of everyone who's not muslim is justifiable, and such an act of terror will be awarded in a world to come. Yes, they truely are weirdo's!

You don't have such a government now. But, in 50 years when the ortodox families overrun secular ones, you just might end up with one like that.

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 You don't have such a government now. But, in 50 years when the ortodox families overrun secular ones, you just might end up with one like that.

But you're assuming that in 50 years that's what will happen... I'd be very interested to see where you get your stats from that show an increase in the number of orthadox families (that have a large number of children), so much so that they are even growing faster in numbers over the secular citizens of Israel. Not likely bud.

I'm basing my stats on what wurm said, that ortodox families have 7 children while unortodox have 2. Let's assume ortodox jews consist up about 10% of the Israeli population, and that average reproduction period is 30 years. Israel has about 6 million people, so there are 600 000 ortodox jews and 5 400 000 others. In 30 years, there are going to be 5.4 million others and 2.1 million ortodox jews, or little less than 30%. In 60 years, there are going to be 7.35 million ortodox jews and 5.4 million others. Meaning that in 60 years, the ortodox jews will consist up about 57% of the Israeli population.

I admit here that I have assumed ortodox jews won't turn into unortodox ones and vice-versa. Still, that conversions should be on a very large scale to be of relevance. (2.5 children per ortodox family (36%) should turn unortodox just to keep the balance)

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Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0 You don't have such a government now. But, in 50 years when the ortodox families overrun secular ones, you just might end up with one like that.

you're also assuming that in 50 years israel will still exist at least in the way we know it now.

Sharon's desperate actions only shows how troublesome the future of israel is... there will be more palestinians than jews in a very near future and that inside the borders of israel , add to that the water wars to happen soon and the continuing decline of the american empire... wow looks like a dark future for israel.

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there will be more palestinians than jews in a very near future and that inside the borders of israel

Not if ortodox jews kick in soon Maybe this will end up in a sort of cold war type population race.

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Wow... you never seize to amaze me Rupert.

YOur too kind

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Posting such sites on your behalf only show's me (and others for that matter), the worthless content that is piled-up in your worthless.... I mean your, brainwashed-Israeli-hating brain.

Well too anyone who isnt an Israeli apologist the site provides very useful information. I would go so far to say Uri Avnery doesnt outline the real danger facing Israel.

It isnt armies and the amount spent on the defence budget that makes a country great it is its economy. Israel and the United States are making the same mistake as the Soviet Union. People used to think it was all powerful and then it collapsed. No, it wasnt the Berlin Wall coming down that did it, it was the fact that it was spending beyond its means. This is already in train with the United States and Israel. Pride comes before a fall.

Lets put this to the test shall we, if I am so ignorant and I dont know anything cut out the first four paragraphs of what I am going to say next and put it in a word document and come back to it in say two years time and see if I am wrong.

1) the global economy is headed for a major deflationary recession, caused in large part by the overhang of debt from the boom years. This is part of the economic/investment cycle. The cool thing about deflation is it devastating for countries, companies, people with large debt burdens. And which country has the greatest amount of debt the United States. There is nothing that can be done to stop this, in fact the actions of the US government are making it worse. Israel is dependant on the USA. Dependancy creates weakness.

2) The Israeli economy is already in recession, the Intifada really is working. Foreign direct investment has dried up and guess what it isnt coming back. Who would want to invest in Israel when you dont know if the workforce is going to get blown up on the bus to work. Israel put a lot of effort into getting into the new economy, biotechnology, IT and that bubble has already burst.

3) Better off Jews are already trying to line up ways to get out of Israel because of the poor economy, so those with money will transfer it out of Israel and if they can will try and get citizenship or visas to countries like USA, EU or Australia. This weakens the economy even further. This isnt going to stop either. This represents a capital and knowledge drain on the long term future of Israel

4) In order to maintain the occupation and crush the Intifadi, which after all these years has shown no signs of ending, the Israeli government has cut spending on social welfare to pay for its army. Wars are devastating for economies that have to fight them, and this war with the Arabs/Muslims that Israel and the USA want wont end, until the causes that led to the war are addressed and they wont be. Since September 11 nothing has changed, so there will be more September 11's

5) But the road map you say, we want to give the Palestinians an independant state, thats better than they ever got. The road map is a farce and it wont work, any deal not agreed to by the punters on the ground is already still born. The Israelis will NEVER abandon the settlers and they will NEVER apologise for stealing the land, they will NEVER give decent compensation to the refuguees. I read a quote from an Israeli settler who I think summarises the attitude of a large slice of the Israeli population "its either them or us"

So Israel will delay and stall until it gets its wall finished and then they will say "here you go arabs,you can have whats left". A wall built to further annex to Israel palestinian land. What Arab is ever going to accept this. The new prime minister has zero support amongst the palestinian population. They want what is their right and if violence is the way to get it well then thats what will happen.

With that attitude the arab/jew conflict will only end through force. And in the long run the arabs have to win, they have a higher population birth rate, their costs of waging war are a lot less, they have the potential to control the critical water supply and most importantly they are extremely willing to die for their cause. The Occupation has completely militarised the palestinian society, just like it has further militarised the Israeli society. Soldiers should never be put in charge of governments but that is what has happened.

It wont suprise me if at some stage the Israelis try and ethnically cleanse the arabs that live inside Israeli proper. Israel could have gone the way of the whites in South Africa but it chose the way of the French in Algeria. Now how many French people live in Algeria?

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Originally posted by ahlamalek the continuing decline of the american empire

laughable

You're starting to sound like a certain group of Jews long ago who thought that their leader would throw down the empire of the day.
Enough of my shabby attempt at irony.

But seriously, the two trends of exploding population in the developing world vs. shrinking 'native' population in the developed world will change the structure of economies, governments and lives.
(ie: How safe is a real estate investment? The market is predicated on increasing scarcity of houses. If pop. drops, house values will drop too.)

There seem to be a lot of doomsayers here. I'll write that off to youthful cynicism.

hehe laugh all you can wurm, i'm not the first one saying that the American empire is on the decline

in 10-12 years, China will have the same GDP as the USA and the Dragon will roar!

Encirclement is already underway to limit Commie growth.

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Secular Jews have an average of 2 kids per family.

you realize that reading too far into statistics does not help matters. An average is based on everything, does that help because you have certain families with no kids and some with 5 kids, all computed into the avg. Birth rate is on the rise in most places..

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Originally posted by torontotrance you realize that reading too far into statistics does not help matters. An average is based on everything, does that help because you have certain families with no kids and some with 5 kids, all computed into the avg. Birth rate is on the rise in most places..

What?

Yes, you described the function of a mathematical mean.

Would the mode or the median have been more appropriate?

The mean is useful when describing trends occurring over large groups of people.

i hate stats...grrr....lame course in college

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Birth rate is on the rise in most places..

Where the hell did you get that from?

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Originally posted by Wurm Encirclement is already underway to limit Commie growth.

I know that... but it only proves that the US knows its superiority is coming to an end... hence doing whatever it can now to limit the damage in the future

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Originally posted by ahlamalek I know that... but it only proves that the US knows its superiority is coming to an end... hence doing whatever it can now to limit the damage in the future

Proves nothing!

I could say it shows that the US 'knows' it's more superior, and is using its power to make sure no one even moderately threatens its international position.

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Originally posted by melech_mike Proves nothing! I could say it shows that the US 'knows' it's more superior, and is using its power to make sure no one even moderately threatens its international position.

hehe

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Originally posted by melech_mike Proves nothing! I could say it shows that the US 'knows' it's more superior, and is using its power to make sure no one even moderately threatens its international position.

If the US is so "superior",then why the hell would it bother to use its power so that its national position isn't threatened,seeing as there is no threat in the first place?That would only be a waste of resources if you ask me,resources that are desperately needed elsewhere.

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Originally posted by Sand Leaper If the US is so "superior",then why the hell would it bother to use its power so that its national position isn't threatened,seeing as there is no threat in the first place?That would only be a waste of resources if you ask me,resources that are desperately needed elsewhere.

Think of it like this:
You have a multi-billion dollar company that is on top of its game in every aspect right now. It's powerful, respected, and feared... all the good stuff.

Would you insure this company?
Although there is no threat to it at this moment, how do you know what will happen a minute from now. Terror attacks, earthquakes etc...

So just like this company gets insurance to protect it from future loss, so does the US in using its power to set itself up in certain defence positions against future would be "enemies".

These resources may be needed elsewhere, but I hope that you would never think the US would compromise its "insurance", over helping the governments of other nations.

The US administration is thinking more along these lines:
'We need to be assured before we can go out and re-assure others.'

quote:

Originally posted by melech_mike Think of it like this: You have a multi-billion dollar company that is on top of its game in every aspect right now. It's powerful, respected, and feared... all the good stuff. Would you insure this company? Although there is no threat to it at this moment, how do you know what will happen a minute from now. Terror attacks, earthquakes etc... So just like this company gets insurance to protect it from future loss, so does the US in using its power to set itself up in certain defence positions against future would be "enemies". These resources may be needed elsewhere, but I hope that you would never think the US would compromise its "insurance", over helping the governments of other nations. The US administration is thinking more along these lines: 'We need to be assured before we can go out and re-assure others.'

I would insure the company yes,but if the company had serious economical issues (like the US does have), it would be foolish to use resources on insuring against threats that aren't present at the moment instead of spending them on problems that are much more pressing. That is why I find it hard to believe that the US would use their power on an issue that isn't by far as important as a lot of other economical issues the US has.

Argh,that was sucky english.Ah well,can't be arsed to rewrite now.

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