TranceAddict Forums (www.tranceaddict.com/forums)
- Political Discussion / Debate
-- EXCELLENT Analysis of What Would Happen if N. Korea War Breaks Out

EXCELLENT Analysis of What Would Happen if N. Korea War Breaks Out

While reading about N. Korea's latest round of nuclear posturing:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiap...ukes/index.html

I came across an excellent commentary of how a N. Korean war would play out. Anyway, I didn't write it, but I thought it was so good that I thought that I would share it with all of you:

There are currently 250 thousand South Korean active duty troops (all services) serving in direct security roles ont he DMZ. They are bolstered by 37,000 regular US army and marine corps troops as well as AF/ANG/AFR personell. The US has pre-positioned the equivalent of 3 mechanized and one armoured division's worth of equipment in the far south along with deeply buried munitions and fuel supplies to supply them with. The USAF also has dozens of pre-sited and preparred squadron kits and rough fields in the south as well as co-lo with The SKAF units (Which are mostly US trained and far better equiped than the North).

It's true there are over 15 million SKs in artillary range of the North's pre-sighted guns, but those guns wouldn't get off more than half a dozen rounds before being counterbatteried or struck with air strikes/missles. The real issue is that the SK navy is relatively small and incappable of stopping the primative but massive naval assets of the NK coastal navy... they could land tens of thousands (it is their plan mind you to do so) of 'special warfare' and special forces men between the DMZ and the souther penninusular reserve forces that would be airlifted in by the US.

Any land war in Korea is going to be bloody... very bloody. If NK escalates it to nuclear and launches, they have the technical ability to hit targest as far away as Diego Garcia or LA. Most likely targest will be surge basing in Hawaii and Japan as well as targets of opportunity including LA if possible. Their missle system for delivering their first gen warheads (probalby a 20 -80KT yeild at best) is primative with a CEP of 5 miles or more. It's also not exactly a defnisible missle, lacking any kind of ECM/Chaff/Meanuvering like front line US/Brit/Russian missles so it's could possibly be shot down by pre-stationed Patriots or even AGEIS systems.

The US counterblow would, contrary to popular belief, be very measured given how global the impact of even a limited nuclear war would be envrionmentally and politically. I doubt we use anything big, opting instead for precision tactical nuke strikes against burried basing and supplies as well as C3 infrastrucutres that are on a ration of 1 to 10 versus conventional attacks. We don't need to nuke NK flat to cripple their war effort or decapitate them, and indeed our large precision weapons can bring more firepower on target more accurately than most nuclear delivery systems.

I envision the NKs springing out of their fortified DMZ line in two prongs, one moving to the south rapidly and one smaller prong moving directly on Seoul. Simultaneously they would launch raids and small scale strikes along the coasts and try to cut off left to right lines of communication across the penninsula and inhibit reinforcements streaming in from the south. Their diesel subs (probably their most dangerous weapon, and they have over 30) will move to try and stop Marine MUIs from landing and hit at US CVN groups supporting them, possibly with some limited success given how quiet those boats can be (albeit in suicidal fashion). The NK airforce will mostl likey be used in typical soviet doctrine and be contained easily within 24 hours by the combined US and SK air units available and be a near non-factor in the ensuing counter air campaign - expect a few surprise successes with their few modern deep interdictor aircraft like the SU-27 on the opening day, performing deep strikes against US pre-po equipment and southern port facilities and perhaps against a few of the biggest SK airfields.

Within 48 hours the US could have over 20K additional men on the ground via air from both Iraq and Korea (look for an upcoming shift of light forces out of Iraq in the coming days with this announcement!) and within a week we would have another 60K men mated up to surving pre-po equipment in the north to join the battle south of Seoul. Seoul won't fall immediately, but it will be a bosnian like landscape of humanitarian disaster as the NK troops surround and batter the city mercilessly. The SK troops will split, some entering the city for defense on the edge and the remainder bending south in line down the penninsula as reinforcement clean out the raiders and special forces in the rear and battle their way to the line. The NKs have alot invested in tactical and theater air defense so expect some sad numbers in the opening days as SK and US aircraft take some moderate losses, but I say we have theater air supperiority below the DMZ in 48 hours and complete control in four days.

Once the roll of the NK forces stops and their momentum is spent, I figure to see chemical weapons come out and be used by NK followed by what ever nukes they have managed to build (both in strikes below our direct line on our air bases and rear as well as abroad at targets of opportunity including in the continental US). We would retalliate at this point rapidly with a heavy conventional and light tac nuke campaign that would decapitate NK and gut their infrastrucutre to support any more war.

1.5 Million dead South Koreans, half civillians trapped in Seoul.

15K US killed.

700K NK Killed (barring any strikes by nuclear weapons on populace centers, then the number could be 5x that).



Reads like a Tom Clancy novel right?

Ok back to our regularly scheduled Israel vs. Pal bickering

cool where'd you get that from?

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus cool where'd you get that from?

Friend sent it to me. Not sure where he got it from.

interesting, sounds like NK is taking a page out of the MacArthur school of Korean warfare text.

it is interesting, but im not sure what makes it so excellent...only NK knows what NK is capable of doing. And furthermore, it seems a little simple. where is China within this scheme? they didnt stay idle last time, and Japan is bound to feel very very threatened. NK is no Iraq, the US wont be the only player against (or with) them.

...and no matter what happens the U.S. bashers will be here saying whay a mistake we made trying to protect S.K. and how it's all our fault.

Interesting scenario though...but I think that it's true it didn't take into account who's gonna take who's side if shit hits the fan...i.e. china/japan.

Let's hope smarter heads prevail...granted I don't see the NK's playing the 'smart' type.

quote:

Originally posted by biznology interesting, sounds like NK is taking a page out of the MacArthur school of Korean warfare text. it is interesting, but im not sure what makes it so excellent...only NK knows what NK is capable of doing. And furthermore, it seems a little simple. where is China within this scheme? they didnt stay idle last time, and Japan is bound to feel very very threatened. NK is no Iraq, the US wont be the only player against (or with) them.

Well, the scenario relies on the hypothetical belief that N. Korea would initiate the war on the Peninsula. With so many lives at stake it is unlikely any of the other parties would initiate hostilities since they would have nothing to lose by maintaining the status quo. N. Korea on the other hand has everything to lose by maintaining the status quo and actually over time its condition is likely to get a lot worse.

Given the scenario of a N. Korean instigated war, it is highly unlikely that China would back N. Korea in any official manner. They MIHGT funnel weapons to the N. Koreans, but likely not actual involvement. China itself does not want a nuclear North Korea and has been at odds with N. Korea as of late. And actually, China has recentely sent troops to the N. Korean border in order send a signal to N. Korea that they had better play ball. At any rate there has been a definite thaw in relations:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/w...5¬Found=true

So in the event of a N. Korean invasion, China if anything, would likely stay out of it in order to avoid greater regional instability. They would have very little to gain from a war with the US/Japan/S.Korea.

With respects to the person's analysis of tactical operations it does make a lot of sense. Considering how 70% of N. Korea's armed forces are within 65km of the DMZ, a two pronged attack to capture Seoul and to use the element of surprise to overrun divisions in the South does make sense. Furthermore N. Korea's special forces are the largest in teh world with over 100,000 men. If you already have a million man + army crossing over the dmz, what better way to utilize them than to infiltrate key command and control installations all across the coast line? As a matter of fact the S. Koreans have captured NUMEROUS N. Korean commando raids into S. Korea in the past! So the only real question that the analysis doesn't cover is whether N. Korea decides to use nukes or not. Personally I think they will because if they are desperate enough to wage war against the US they will probably stop at nothing.

One aspect that I disagree with is N. Korea's artillery capabilities. The author states that they could easily take out the N. Korean artillery positions with counter-battery fire however I disagree. The N. Koreans are likely to possess something similar to the maginot line with artillery burrowed into the mountainside along the DMZ with retractable positions. They would fire a few rounds and then be retracted into their hardened bunkers before US counterbattery fire can arrive. Then the cycle repeats itself whereby the N. Korean artillery shoots then retracts, shoots then retracts, etc. Therefore I think the potential civilian casualties and initial troop casualties would be MUCH higher.

nothing surprizes me here, cept for the naval side, which i never really thought of

this is defently interesting, the world's biggest military problem right now as i can see it. i don't think (hope) the korean conflict will end in a war, i think that the only good way to end this conflict is to make the north korean people relize how bad their country is and make revolt. of course this doesn't help if north attacks the south. and about china, i don't think they would help the north if they attacked first, china is way to dependent of the western world. BUT if the sout/allies attacks the north, china might help (probably south won't attack until they are sure that china won't help the north...)

read my lips:

its not gonna happen.

quote:

Originally posted by PhloTron ...and no matter what happens the U.S. bashers will be here saying whay a mistake we made trying to protect S.K. and how it's all our fault.

I think you're a bit paranoid, because if NK attacks first, I don't see how could a hypothetic US retaliation be condemned. And if the US strikes first, I also don't see how such an act could be justified.

Btw, an interesting read, occrider.

Ya my prediction is that China would actually come against North Korea (so they get a say in the reconstruction) China's only other option would be to stay neutral or support NK both would put it at a disadvantage.

Correct me if i am wrong but i have heard of NKs digging massive tunnels into South Korea territory that could potentially transplant a huge number of troops..
Supposedly some of these tunnels have been discovered but there are still many that have not been found...

Very interesting analysis. I too tend to disagree on the ease of neutralization of artillery, but nevertheless it is a nice commentary.

I sure hope things don't escalate...the economy is bad enough as it is and I finally have steady work. I can't afford another scared corporate economy where there is no spending for trade show displays etc.

MrS

Powered by: vBulletin
Copyright © 2000-2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.