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Taiwan: Flashpoint 2004

I'm goint to guess that as Taiwan continually progresses towards democratic independance from China, China will eventually pull the punches and finally committ towards war. That's simply jsut the feeling I get from its newfound economic powerhouse, renewal/escalation of its space program, etc.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/a....war/index.html

Meanwhile, the US appears to be committed towards Tawain's defense with a promise of force ...

quote:

On Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the Bush administration would deploy sufficient force in the Asia-Pacific area to lower tensions between China and Taiwan. ``We have good competent forces there,'' Armitage said as he also offered assurances that the Bush administration would provide Taiwan with ``sufficient defense articles for her self-defense.'' Armitage told reporters that ``we have full faith that the question of Taiwan will be resolved peacefully.''

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/new...ina-Taiwan.html

I've been somewhat attempting to draw more attention to the far east as of late because I feel it to be a nascent issue that is perhaps being underscored as a result of all the attention Iraq is receiving. I fear that with the heavy handed US investment into Iraq, that it will upset the "MAD" doctrine, so to speak, that prevents crises from developing in Korea or Taiwan.

eh...

i disagree almost entirely...but im not gonna argue with you right now

Taiwan doesn't have such a shabby miitary itself from what I understand, due to them having access to all the us technology/vehicles/machinery etc.

Something tells me that the US might not actually use force if China did attack Taiwan, is a war with China really in their best intrests (Mabye you could enlighten us, Mr. occrider )

I just wish we would pull out all of the Navy we have near by to assist Taiwan, incase something does happen, and support. I'll be willing to pay a few extra dollars for the Taiwan manufactured computer products I purchase, during the China over taking.

If china attacked taiwan, it would be a bad move. If however, china were a much bigger military power than the US, there MIGHT be a chance. But i still think china is angry and no actions will be carried out in the near future.

we can barley control afghanistan and iraq, what makes you think we could take on china? Like occrider? stated in a previous post, it would be hard for us to even control China's mainland with all the billion people they have. But I guess that's why IBM just sold the US government another supercomputer, Blue Gene, for nuclear weapons simulations. The plan must be to just nuke every part of the country

China attacking Taiwan is not something I would have previously forecast during Ziang's tenure as President....but since Hu Jin Tao is a new factor it is hard to say. While Hu appears on many levels to be even more open to reform, especially with regards to economic issues, his position on dealing with "unruly" portions of the populous is not clear.

His track record though does show that he has been, in the past, willing to use a very heavy hand to quash resistance. Just look at his tenure as the party chief in Tibet.

You add into this his almost challenging rhetoric towards the Australian parliament where he warned the Aussies not to interfere in China's business with regards to Taiwan.

Someone made some comment about "if China had a larger military". Uhm...they DO have a larger conventional arsenal than the U.S. They also have millions of young bodies ripe for the picking as conscripts to send out as gun fodder. The Chinese could probably conscript, train, and deploy a force on the order of 20-30 million troops in less time than the U.S. government would take putting the selective service system back into action.

China does not really fear the U.S. in a conventional war but what the Chinese do fear, and what kept them in line for deacdes, was their fear of a nuclear strike. China is one of the "Nuclear Club" but of the 5 big players, their capabilities are by far the weakest, especially in the long-range strategic weapons arena.

I too see a Chinese re-unification at some point in the not so distant future. But I am not sure that it will come as a result of force. The effect the return of control of Hong Kong to China has just started to take shape. The openess of society in Hong Kong has been leeching into the mainstream in China and it has been increasingly difficult for Beijing to keep such thinking under wraps. I think the return of HK has done a lot of the same things to China as Peristoika did in the USSR during the tenure of Gorabachev.

As always occrider brings up interesting issues outside of the Arabian peninsula and its neighbors.


MrS

Seems unlikely. Mostly posturing for the world's reaction.

Taiwan was initially very US because of Chiang's GND 'democracy'. As of now, there are still differences, but not quite the same differences as Chiang vs. Mao.

Plus the US isnt gonna take on China, regardless of size, allegiance, etc. Too much drama|

Its not going to happen, according to some recent polls I read a few months ago (I'm to lazy to google and link them so check them out of yourself) the majority population of Taiwan see reunification with China as a something they should do. Most the population that disagrees with this does so primarly because they don't think the time is right, but there is really little urge for Taiwan to remain independent.

China is smart, they think of things long term. Why go through a costly war for a pathetic island, when in 50 years you will be able to do so peacefully?

haha oxypad you're so stupid hahaha

look and he even titled the thread like a Fox Breaking News Title:

FLASHPOINT 2004!!!

hahahahaha

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus Its not going to happen, according to some recent polls I read a few months ago (I'm to lazy to google and link them so check them out of yourself) the majority population of Taiwan see reunification with China as a something they should do. Most the population that disagrees with this does so primarly because they don't think the time is right, but there is really little urge for Taiwan to remain independent. China is smart, they think of things long term. Why go through a costly war for a pathetic island, when in 50 years you will be able to do so peacefully?

Where Do you do research on your knowledge of the world ???
Where to start???? You and your "polls" .. First of all most people in fact do support reunification with China. the way you see it yoepus..Even 3 years ago when relations with the mainland were alot better than they were now an overwhelming 80% wanted to mainatin the status quo......

http://taiwansecurity.org/CNA/CNA-0...-Status-Quo.htm

Why would they want to give up their freedoms that they enjoy now????? The so called one country two holds no ground here.
Most people here hate the chinese govt . Ask anyone on the street what they think about reunification with China. Its not going to be a positive response. The thing is the people of Taiwan actually see themselves as the true rulers of the mailand and vice versa. The only way reunification is accepted is if Taiwan is recognized as a an equal to Beijing but do you think Beijng will accept that? Not likeley!

As far as your statment of Taiwan being a pathetic island I would like to know why you consider it pathetic? Last time I checked Taiwan had a population almost 4 times that of Isreal and the same popultaion of Iraq and much more of a powerhouse economy then that of isreal.

http://www.greekorthodoxchurch.org/...an_economy.html

http://www.greekorthodoxchurch.org/...el_economy.html

So I don't really think it is a pathetic little island that you make it out to be. I could just as easy call Isreal pathetic . Why is the US standing up for Isreal? Or for Iraq? For freedom of the people yeah right. How much freedom is Taiwan going to have if China has to come in and take the Island back by force. China's government is just as repressive as Sadam was in Iraq. That aside I'll come to my real point:

The presedential election is coming up next year . This is what this whole things is about and everyone here knows it. Chen Shui Bien's election tactics are working again. The last presendial election was the same thing. Chen made the same kinds of comments towards Beijing and Beijing got pissed off and started firing missles off the coast off Taiwan. This resulted iun anti Beijing feelings here and strong support for Chen and his DDP party which resulted in a big win for Chen. After the election was over Chen smoothed relations to maitain the staus quo. Everyone know's Chen is up to his same tricks here becasue he's taking a beating in the polls. I am fearful along with others here that Chen is going to far and Beijing is not going to sit around for very much longer.Beijing know's what Chen is up too...Beijing doesn't like Chen's games .Sadly it is the situation in Taiwan where the politics aren''t any better than the US. The US always see's this as a good oppurtinity to push the arms sales and look good becasue they know nothing is really going to happen. ( or will it this time???)

I dont think war here is going to happen yet either . But I am fearful like Occrider. It's not about China wanting something out of Taiwan . It is simply that China thinks Taiwan in rightfully theirs and that it is no one else''s business to interfere the reunification process. So While China maybe be smart they don't care about the cost of things or abut the US involvement. Taiwan is part of China as far as China is concerened.

I would like to know how you got you timetable of 50 years of reunification peacefully >?????

hey i was too drunk last night (hence the 'too much drama' quote) to comment on one other thing...


there has been talk of 'reunification' but not amagalmation. the most reliable path seems to allow China to incorporate Taiwan, yet allow it to remain a Special Economic Zone like Hong Kong or Macao have been over the past century.

seems both countries could benefit from that|

I'm not saying that there would be a war between China and the US. Quite the contrary, I'm guessing that there won't be a war between China and the US, but there might be a war between Taiwan and China. Think about it, what more perfect an opportunity for China to reacquire Taiwan than now when the US will most assuredly will not committ itself to another major conflict when it is fully occupied with Iraq? Personally, I think that as China continues to grow exponentially economically and militarily, we are going to see a growing sense of nationalistic tendencies. You can see bits and peices of this through their growing space program and how it is being marketed towards the chinese public. I wouldn't be surprised to see an ultimatum come from China with respects to a Taiwanese political decision, see Taiwan refuse, and China may embark on using limited force which may escalate out of control ...

but in China now the focus is on making money, and not much else. most elderly people there remember how fucked up things could be if there are massive changes, mobilizations in society whether militarily or not, so i would assume they are seeking stability not chaos. and doing anything to that scale from China will likely cause problems domestically and internationally.

China is at a point where they cant piss off the international community as they want to keep growth coming, but at the expense of there environment and natural resources. they need to keep the peace to keep the money and resources coming into the country|

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus China is smart, they think of things long term. Why go through a costly war for a pathetic island,

care to elaborate on how taiwan is a "pathetic little island"

quote:

Originally posted by biznology but in China now the focus is on making money, and not much else. most elderly people there remember how fucked up things could be if there are massive changes, mobilizations in society whether militarily or not, so i would assume they are seeking stability not chaos. and doing anything to that scale from China will likely cause problems domestically and internationally. China is at a point where they cant piss off the international community as they want to keep growth coming, but at the expense of there environment and natural resources. they need to keep the peace to keep the money and resources coming into the country|

I agree. Just think of all the investment and international exposure China has been working so hard for to get the Olympics of 08. They can't afford a costly (political or economical) fallout from the instablity of such a war.

All full scale war between the two states is quiet unimaginable, esepcially if it will require a Chinese occupation of the island, brutality would have to be very extreme to curtail the high resistance that would ensure. At the occupation alone international forces would no longer be able to turn a blind eye and be forced to intervene.

By 2050, the Chinese predict they will become a moderatly developed nation with GDP exceeding $8,000 per capita (according to the former Chinese Foreign Minister). Hence the mention 50 years from now. To achieve such a high per capita, I believe more economic and liberal reforms will have to be enacted, when such reforms are in acted, I do believe the Taiwanese will not have much to dread the chinese government against, and create some mid-term solution like Hong Kong (under British rule for 50 years till its hand over, yet still preserving much of its automony currently).

quote:

Originally posted by TuanAnh213 care to elaborate on how taiwan is a "pathetic little island"

gees you guys always get so strung up with a bit of sarcasm.

Its pathetic when you compare it in gerographical size with an island like Austrilia, there you happy now?

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus gees you guys always get so strung up with a bit of sarcasm. Its pathetic when you compare it in gerographical size with an island like Austrilia, there you happy now?

ummm...your sarcasm is horrible

quote:

I'm not saying that there would be a war between China and the US. Quite the contrary, I'm guessing that there won't be a war between China and the US, but there might be a war between Taiwan and China.

I agree fully there.. I always said this from the start....the US won't stand up for Taiwan in the end

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus I agree. Just think of all the investment and international exposure China has been working so hard for to get the Olympics of 08. They can't afford a costly (political or economical) fallout from the instablity of such a war. All full scale war between the two states is quiet unimaginable, esepcially if it will require a Chinese occupation of the island, brutality would have to be very extreme to curtail the high resistance that would ensure. At the occupation alone international forces would no longer be able to turn a blind eye and be forced to intervene. By 2050, the Chinese predict they will become a moderatly developed nation with GDP exceeding $8,000 per capita (according to the former Chinese Foreign Minister). Hence the mention 50 years from now. To achieve such a high per capita, I believe more economic and liberal reforms will have to be enacted, when such reforms are in acted, I do believe the Taiwanese will not have much to dread the chinese government against, and create some mid-term solution like Hong Kong (under British rule for 50 years till its hand over, yet still preserving much of its automony currently).

hmmmm it's kinda funny how you think.....so size does matter ??? What does your girlfriend/boyfriend think about that???


Anyways you think everyone thinks the same....China views Taiwan as a domestic issue and views international opnion or interference as unwelcome. The Chinese would rather get Taiwan back peacefully yes but the said they would use force....and they will use force. What did the intyernational community do when Tianamen Square happened? Not too much ...it was viewed by the Chinese as a domestic issue and so is the issue of Taiwan. The Chinese Government does like anyone ( especially their own citizens) telling them how they should deal with domestic issues period.

And if you truly believe that Taiwan has nothing to fear from the Mainland government you are truly blind....Ask the Honk Kong people what is slowly happening to their One Country - Two system policy,...Its slowly being stripped away. That's how slick the chinese are ...they get in there and work at it slowly. They have the patience to take over slowly.

quote:

Originally posted by iLoveDave And if you truly believe that Taiwan has nothing to fear from the Mainland government you are truly blind....Ask the Honk Kong people what is slowly happening to their One Country - Two system policy,...Its slowly being stripped away. That's how slick the chinese are ...they get in there and work at it slowly. They have the patience to take over slowly.

I don't believe that, I do believe Taiwan has definitely something to fear. And I believe it is also very smart for the Taiwanese to spend on defense, as this deters the Chinese from invasion.

What I did say, is if the USA and the world do not intervene if war breaks out between China and Taiwan, I believe they're will be international intervention when China occupies Taiwan due to the heavey handed brutality that will accompany it. Perhaps I am wrong here, but I do not believe the world could simply ignore the massacres on Taiwan because it is "an internal affair". They could ignore a war perhaps, but not the slaughter of so many, which I forsee as necessary as I do not see Taiwan willfully surrendering even under the dire of circumstances.

The point I am disagreeing with you is that the US won't stand with Taiwan at the end; I don't agree, I believe the US won't stand with Tawian in the begining but it will stand with it at the end.

Well here's how I would picture a crises situation playing out ... the US will always maintain some kind of presence near Taiwan. It won't base troops on the island like S. Korea, however, it will keept some warships, most likely an aircraft carrier or two, nearby. In the even of Chinese hostilities against Taiwan, the US will not declare war against China. There is no treaty or pact between the two countries and the US stands firmly behind a one China policy (a two China policy would spark off a war according to the Chinese). However, in the event of hostilities, the US would likely send its warships into the area in order provide some kind of deterrance ... it won't fire upon the Chinese, however, it will do so once fired upon. Now at this point one of two scenarios can happen. Either the Chinese will disengage from its hostilities against Taiwan from fear of unintentionally firing upon US forces ... or it will deliberately/accidentally fire upon US forces provoking some kind of response. At that point it's anybody's as to what would happen.

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus I don't believe that, I do believe Taiwan has definitely something to fear. And I believe it is also very smart for the Taiwanese to spend on defense, as this deters the Chinese from invasion. What I did say, is if the USA and the world do not intervene if war breaks out between China and Taiwan, I believe they're will be international intervention when China occupies Taiwan due to the heavey handed brutality that will accompany it. Perhaps I am wrong here, but I do not believe the world could simply ignore the massacres on Taiwan because it is "an internal affair". They could ignore a war perhaps, but not the slaughter of so many, which I forsee as necessary as I do not see Taiwan willfully surrendering even under the dire of circumstances. The point I am disagreeing with you is that the US won't stand with Taiwan at the end; I don't agree, I believe the US won't stand with Tawian in the begining but it will stand with it at the end.

quote:

I do believe the Taiwanese will not have much to dread the chinese government against, and create some mid-term solution like Hong Kong (under British rule for 50 years till its hand over, yet still preserving much of its automony currently).

Well make up your mind...you say Taiwan has not much to fear then you say they do have much to fear??? what is it?

Spending more money on military is not the solution either. China would crush Taiwan if they wanted to invade. Peacful negotiations are needed.

China will never allow Taiwan to declare itself as independent, as of now it considers it a renegade province of China and intends to keep it within their reach as much as possible. The Taiwanese would remain satisfied with the current status quo of relations with China, the question is are the Chinese going to be satisfied with this for too much longer. China could eventually take over Taiwan in a conflict but at what cost politically and economically on the international scene.

quote:

Originally posted by NYCTrancefan China will never allow Taiwan to declare itself as independent, as of now it considers it a renegade province of China and intends to keep it within their reach as much as possible. The Taiwanese would remain satisfied with the current status quo of relations with China, the question is are the Chinese going to be satisfied with this for too much longer. China could eventually take over Taiwan in a conflict but at what cost politically and economically on the international scene.

All of us already know this...... here I have something for you

quote:

Originally posted by occrider However, in the event of hostilities, the US would likely send its warships into the area in order provide some kind of deterrance

yea starting an accidental war between the us and china is exactly the goal of military minds.

wont you ever stop talking?

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