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Israel confronted by demographic realities

"At this very minute, within the western land of Israel from the Mediterranean Sea to the River Jordan, there is already a non-Jewish majority"

Arnon Sofer, Haifa University demographer

rest of article

Israel confronted by demographic realities
By Khalid Amayreh in the West Bank

Wednesday 10 December 2003, 16:52 GMT

The right-wing political establishment in Israel has been thrown into disarray with deputy-prime minister Ehud Olmert proposal that Israel carry out a unilateral withdrawal from the bulk of the West Bank in order to maintain its �Jewish majority�.

Olmert, an erstwhile hawk, argued on 5 December that the �status quo� was �destroying Zionism�, and that Jews would have to make �hard and fateful decisions sooner than later because later could be too late.�

A confidant of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Olmert warned that Israel �must choose either to retain the (occupied) territories and consequently risk losing its Jewish majority, or leave the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and therefore sacrifice dear parts of the land of Israel."

Olmert�s unprecedented remarks sent shockwaves through the Israeli Jewish society, particularly the rightist camp, long inured to the idea of �Eretz Yisrael Ha�shlema� or the Land of Greater Israel.

Backlash

In West Jerusalem, right-wing activists scribbled graffiti caricaturing the former mayor of Jerusalem as a self-hating Jew.

�For the first time in the history of the Likud, one of our ministers is proposing we flee our very soul, the western land of Israel, to cut ourselves off from parts of the homeland, without which we wouldn�t exist and would lack the right to exist.�

Tzhai Hanegbi, Israeli minister

Moreover, posters showing Olmert wearing Nazi insignia were put up in several settlements in the West Bank.

Sharon himself has not reacted to the remarks, but one of his ministers, Tzhai Hanegbi called Olmert �a man whose endurance resembles a spider�s web in fragility."

�For the first time in the history of the Likud, one of our ministers is proposing we flee our very soul, the western land of Israel, to cut ourselves off from parts of the homeland, without which we would not exist and would lack the right to exist,� said Hanegbi.

'Political bomb'

It is not clear what prompted Olmert, who until recently was considered one of the most radical Israeli politicians, to detonate this �political bomb�, using the words of an Israeli journalist.

According to Shlomo Avinery, Head of the Middle East and Europe Department at the Hebrew University Political Science Department, Olmert is trying to position himself as a potential successor to Sharon.

�I think he is positioning himself to succeed Sharon. If I understand him correctly, he knows he cannot rally people on the right behind him, that is why he uses the demographic argument to mobilise people in his favor,� he said.

Nonetheless, Avinery recognises that there is a feeling throughout Israel that �we are stuck and something needs to be done.�

�They (the political echelons) are reaching to the conclusion that they have to make strategic decisions now. And the demographic issue is used to highlight the urgency of the situation.�

Dilemma

Olmert is far from being a lonely voice in the wilderness. There are many Israelis, including veteran politicians, intellectuals and Intelligence officials who are convinced that Israel is facing a serious existential dilemma, haunting the future survivability of the entire Zionist enterprise.

One of these is Labor leader Shimon Peres, who recently reiterated his conviction that the creation of a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is �a paramount Zionist interest.�

However, things are easier said than done.

Since 1967, Israel has dotted the West Bank with hundreds of Jewish-only settlements, which have come to dominate much of the landscape of the occupied territories.

Indeed, some of these settlements, like Ariel in the northern West Bank, have developed into full-fledged urban communities.

More to the point, the bulk of the settlers living in these settlements are well-connected messianic Jews who have strong influence not only in Israel, but also among the powerful Jewish communities in North America.

It would, therefore, be quite difficult for any Israeli government to dislodge them from a land they believe was given to them by God.

Strategic asset

Seeking to neutralise Arab demographic growth, successive Israeli governments used excessive institutionalised persecution of the Palestinians.

However, Israel�s harsh tactics, which include wanton home demolitions and destruction of farms, orchards and public infrastructure, as well as the building of a gigantic apartheid wall which grabbed large chunks of the west Bank, have failed to subjugate the Palestinians, let alone cause them to leave their ancestral homeland.

�All these Nazi-like tactics have failed to break our will to resist and survive. Instead, our steadfastness is causing cracks within the Israeli society, and Olmert�s statements should be understood in this context,� said Abd al-Sattar Qassim, professor of Political Science at al-Najah National University.

�They (Israel) have come to realise that our blood has defeated their swords. And now they are discussing other options,� Qassim said.

Qassim argued that the �demographic variable� was a �strategic asset� for the Palestinians that should be utilised to the fullest.

�This is a very important variable. It can be compared to military and economic power in its strategic significance.�

Non-Jewish majority

Israel�s demographic woes were exacerbated this week when Haifa University demographer Arnon Sofer declared that there was already a majority of non-Jews in mandatory Palestine, which includes Israel proper, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

�At this very minute, within the western land of Israel from the Mediterranean Sea to the River Jordan, there is already a non-Jewish majority,� Sofer told the Israeli radio on Tuesday.

Sofer forecast that within 17 years, an additional six million people would be added to the estimated current population of 10 million Jews and Arabs in Israel-Palestine. This land is entering into a demographic-ecological whirlwind.�

Facing reality

Conscious of the demographic realities, Palestinian leaders are calling on Jewish leaders to cope with reality �as civilised countries would�.

�They (Israel) should know that all undemocratic solutions such as apartheid, ethnic cleansing, perpetual occupation, etc will not work,� said Arab Knesset member Ahmad Taibi.

�There are only two choices: either a viable Palestinian state on 100% of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem and without Jewish settlers arrogating Palestinian land and resources, or one democratic state for all.� �The choice is theirs, and they must make it now.�

Looks like more Arabs are going to be in favor of a one state solution now.

"It is inevitable" - Agent Smith

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus Looks like more Arabs are going to be in favor of a one state solution now.

one state, one class of citizens... obviously not whats in place now

Theocratic democracies do not work.. it will be the downfall of Israel unless it becomes a one state nation that includes proper domographic representation in government by people living there, whether Jew, Israeli, muslim, arab or christian.

quote:

Originally posted by Cyrus King Theocratic democracies do not work.. it will be the downfall of Israel unless it becomes a one state nation that includes proper domographic representation in government by people living there, whether Jew, Israeli, muslim, arab or christian.

Turkey and Indonesia are two functioning democracies with Islamic Character written into their constitutions. The new Iraq and Afghansitan will also have a democracy within the confounds of muslim state. whether i agree with it or not, shouldnt Israel have a right to do the same - to declare the state to have a Jewish identity?

Well, I guess it's time for the jews to throw away their condoms and get to work.

quote:

Originally posted by Izzy Turkey and Indonesia are two functioning democracies with Islamic Character written into their constitutions. The new Iraq and Afghansitan will also have a democracy within the confounds of muslim state. whether i agree with it or not, shouldnt Israel have a right to do the same - to declare the state to have a Jewish identity?

The fact is that turkey and Idonesia are comprised of Turks and Indonesians....

With ISrael, there are two major races and religions at war. When you have a tinch of cosmopolitan struggle within an area, where one is trying to keep its faith strong through discrimination, then there are problems.

If the ISraeli's realized that it is inevitable that millions more muslim arabs are going to infiltrate their land and consume the Jewish identity, then maybe there could be a strong Jewish character existant in a one nation state.

Imagine the Christian majority in the US declared the US a Christian Democracy...im sure priotities would be greatly influenced towards christians.

quote:

Originally posted by Cyrus King The fact is that turkey and Idonesia are comprised of Turks and Indonesians....

tell that to the kurds and east timoreans

quote:

If the ISraeli's realized that it is inevitable that millions more muslim arabs are going to infiltrate their land and consume the Jewish identity, then maybe there could be a strong Jewish character existant in a one nation state.

oh i think they've realized this for quite sometime now (i know i have), that's probably one of the reasons the Israeli's are holding even more steadfastly to the notion of the jewish character, because of their fear that they are about to lose it.

like it or not the whole reason for having an Israel in the first place was to have a Jewish country. When it is no longer a Jewish country, it is no longer Israel.

Plus if there is no Israel, the world would run out of its supply of zionist mustard... that is completely not an option!

cyrus you're wrong about indonesia... that country is close to exploding in hundreds of little countries... in fact, there's so many languages spoken over there its not funny.

Turkey has a Kurd minority of about 15-20 millions strong, some arameen christians, armenians, greeks, jewish people, ....

quote:

Originally posted by ahlamalek cyrus you're wrong about indonesia... that country is close to exploding in hundreds of little countries... in fact, there's so many languages spoken over there its not funny. Turkey has a Kurd minority of about 15-20 millions strong, some arameen christians, armenians, greeks, jewish people, ....

Sorry...i should have stated that it is the majority.
In any event, Im trying to point out that Israel is exceptional in this stance...Turkey and Indonesia had existed with its indigenous populations throughout the century...as opposed to Israel , with was formed int the middle of the arab world, and was thus a haven for millions of European JEws and other jews that would later proclaim it a Jewish state.

Forming a nation is a hard task, whats harder is trying to have a relationship with its neighbors that hate them.

quote:

Originally posted by Izzy ... Indonesia ...

Indonesia is one of the weakest democracies in existence today. It WAS strong, when it was authoritarian, just like most other stable Asian governments.

I just finished watching a documentary by Thomas Friedman on the discovery channel about this very issue.

His focus was around the security wall, the conclusion he came to however was that the security wall instead of seperating the Palestinians and Israelis, and forcing a two state solution, will bring them together and force a one state solution.

He came to this conclusion namely by making two solid points:
(a) that Jewish settlements will be on both sides of the security fence
(b) that the security wall will encrouch and divide Palestinian land so severly as to disallow the possibility of a viable Palestinian state - one viable only under territorial contiguity.

He also made a theoretical argument; that the wall repersents the failure of the dreams of Oslo, and is a symbol of mis-opprotunity for cooperation to a solution. Instead it leaves room for a one sided solution.

--------------------------------

The real question than is, is this the right conclusion?

If the Israeli government takes the moderate approach on the issue of the fence (moderate Israeli approach mind you), which I tend to believe they will, then the security fence will deprive the Palestinians of no more then 10% of "their" land, and isolated, lowly populated settlements with in the territories will be removed, forcefully if needed.

I also believe, that if Israel does not dismantle such settlements, increased attacks on settlements will force the issues, as the majority of Israelis can understand attakcs in the territories v. Israel proper. So if it is either by will, or by fire, the settlers will get out of there sooner or later.

This would "force" a defacto two-state solution, wheter the Palestinians would recongize their own sovernigthy is another matter, but surely most would view them as the defacto force in control and of power in the territories.

However, obtaining only 10% of Palestinian land at maximum, and leaving it for the majority, territorial congruent, I see a legitimate opposition to the idea of a one state solution that the Palestinians would undoubtly propose at that time.

---------------------------------

Fast forward a two years or three. The security wall is complete. There has been just one suicide bombing in Israel proper for the past 12 months, unprecedented for the last 10 years.

Palestinian conditions have worsened, even more after Israeli settlers have left the majority of the unwalled reigons, Palestinian terrorism has adapted to attack global Israeli targets which it finds more vunerable, and has increased abduction of Israeli travelers abroad.

The Palestinians are now humiliated, they are caged in, and can't do anything about it. They can no longer blame the Israelis (which undoubtly they will) for their pathetic circumstances. The wall is a symbol to them of what they could of had, 1999 Israel and Palestinian finanically successful, trusting, and in cooperation as two states.

If they declare a state now they humiliate themselves more than the worst Israeli checkpoint they could imagine would. They will have ceded their dream to Jerusalem, greater Israel, peace with Israel, all for what? Being walled in their own little mafiadom?

No, Arabs can never be humiliated! They now want just a piece of the pie, to be part of this great state of Israel, to just live a normal life.. to forget this all behind them. They want to live in a free, democratic country, just like everyone else, to just be a part of Israel???

But this would humiliate them as well after all, ceding to be one with your "enemy" is much more humiliating than losing a battle, or even a war to them (which they've done many a time), and further Israel would never accept their union so long as they have a majority in mandated Palestine.

No, Israel might entertain ideas for this union if it sees Palestinian population numbers decrease, or world sympathies for democracy decline, or perhaps proposals for a "democratic" government where one man, does not equal one vote (like the USA) that could afford Israel with the lose of its Jewish character.

But then the question is, would the Palestinians any longer entertain this idea of union?

I don't think so, they would be quick after a year or two of observing these trends to delcare their own state before all failed.

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The Palestinians have continually told themselves a lie throughout their endurance, "Time is on our side". "It took hundreds of years to drive out the crusaders the first time, if it takes that long for the second time, so be it".

Time is not on their side, the wall has broken this myth of theirs, as time goes by their position weakens, their dreams seem more dreamy, and their misery increase to the determent of only thereselves.

----------------------------------------

My forward-looking projection on the whole matter is that unless a deal is brokered before the completion of the wall, which is very unlikely if Arafat doesn't die soon, or Sharon is reelected, than Palestinian numbers will start to decline, and they will be confronted with a pathetic two state solution, and an even worse one state solution.

What happens then? I don't know. I don't want to underestimate the Palestinian nationalisim, but I think it would fether off. In 10-15 years people won't believe in the idea of a Palestinian state anymore, not even the Palestinians.



Bah just my rambling on the subject. but the wall definetly brings in a new dimension that might very well change this whole conflict if it is effective in its deterance of terrorism. if its not, forget about it, you get the status quo.

quote:

Originally posted by Yoepus Bah just my rambling on the subject.

defienatly wishful thinking.

Here's my broad sweeping question that I would like to pose:

If the Jewish settlers leave the West Bank and move elsewhere, AND the wall would be negotiated successfully by both sides, would that be enough to stop the Palestinian terrorist groups from suicide bombings into Israel?

What more would be required?

quote:

Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Here's my broad sweeping question that I would like to pose: If the Jewish settlers leave the West Bank and move elsewhere, AND the wall would be negotiated successfully by both sides, would that be enough to stop the Palestinian terrorist groups from suicide bombings into Israel? What more would be required?

More zionist mustard for the palestinians?

Well to seriously answer your question probably not. Many terrorist groups hinge their existence on the right of return issue ... which would effectively displace Israel as we know it I suppose.

quote:

Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Here's my broad sweeping question that I would like to pose: If the Jewish settlers leave the West Bank and move elsewhere, AND the wall would be negotiated successfully by both sides, would that be enough to stop the Palestinian terrorist groups from suicide bombings into Israel? What more would be required?

NO, of course not. What Palestinians want is the full of Gaza and west bank with east Jerusalem, right of return included and no string attached, full control of borders and ports, like a real fucking country.

quote:

Originally posted by ahlamalek NO, of course not. What Palestinians want is the full of Gaza and west bank with east Jerusalem, right of return included and no string attached, full control of borders and ports, like a real fucking country.

I would agree with everything except the right of return. The fact of the matter is, is that most of the palestinians refugees would not even WANT the right of return. It is simply a clause to ensure the basis for the existence of the militants.

quote:

Originally posted by occrider I would agree with everything except the right of return. The fact of the matter is, is that most of the palestinians refugees would not even WANT the right of return. It is simply a clause to ensure the basis for the existence of the militants.

well if they dont want to return isn't that a non-issue? actually no. It is a huge issue because millions live in miserable conditions in neighbouring countries. These people were displaced in huge numbers, their villages razed, crops and lands destroyed and forced to leave at gun point.

quote:

Originally posted by ahlamalek well if they dont want to return isn't that a non-issue? actually no. It is a huge issue because millions live in miserable conditions in neighbouring countries. These people were displaced in huge numbers, their villages razed, crops and lands destroyed and forced to leave at gun point.

The right of return issue is only propogated by the extremists. The fact of the matter is is that most don't even care ... and for that reason alone, they are subjected to hostility.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3065299.stm

quote:

Originally posted by occrider The right of return issue is only propogated by the extremists. The fact of the matter is is that most don't even care ... and for that reason alone, they are subjected to hostility. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3065299.stm

quote:

Its poll found only 10% of respondents in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Jordan and Lebanon would wish to rebuild their homes under Israeli rule - a finding challenging existing Israeli and Palestinian perceptions.

well duh, how would people live under Israeli control, the same entity that forced them to leave everything behind 50 yrs ago. People have memories and aren't trustful and with reason to Zionists. Heck, look at present day palestinians in Israel, they're treated as second class (if not worse) citizens.

Can you blame them to refuse such things?

quote:

Originally posted by ahlamalek well duh, how would people live under Israeli control, the same entity that forced them to leave everything behind 50 yrs ago. People have memories and aren't trustful and with reason to Zionists. Heck, look at present day palestinians in Israel, they're treated as second class (if not worse) citizens. Can you blame them to refuse such things?

The right of return does not preclude any determination of rule under a specific government ... it merely advocates a return of ownership of land. The essential fact of the matter remains ... given this critical issue at hand, most Palestinians would NOT place this issue as a critical issue dominating policy as evidenced by Hamas/Hezbollah/etc. If the results were so insignificant why were there riots carried out against the results that did not tout the extremist hardline response?

Right of return = one state solution

And when the Palestinians supporters are supporting one state, guess which one state they support over this unified territory?

I'll give you one hint, its not Israel

But to summarize my long rant and pose a question, do you guys believe the security fence/wall changes the dynamics of this middle east conflict, and how radical is this change?

Yoepus: i am not good at guessing the future.

my opinon on the fence is that its only a desperate move made by desperate people.

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