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The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates
Well, I've been compiling daily data for my own benefit 
. Figured others here might have an interest in seeing the raw economic indicators to get an idea of the state of our economy and the trend it is taking. If people are interested, I can update it weekly. If not, I'll let it die hehe.
Btw: I also get daily data on Euro economic indicators ... if there's interest, I suppose I can start a new thread on that 
Be warned ... large amounts of data to follow 
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Week ending Feb 8th
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States] (5.8%)
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 5.8% in December according to the ICSC chain store index, handily exceeding expectations. Growth was the strongest since last September. Luxury retailers continued to outperform discounters. However, sales gains that exceeded recent results were widespread.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States] (356,000)
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose above expectations, to 356,000 last week. The surprising increase can be explained in part by layoffs related to the winter storms. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were unchanged, at 3.12 million.
RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States] (2.7%)
FIRST TAKE: Preliminary productivity growth for the fourth quarter slowed to 2.7%, largely in line with expectations. Annual average productivity rose 4.2% in the nonfarm business sector for all of 2003.
RELEASE: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey [United States] (-17.9%)
FIRST TAKE: Bank lending standards and terms for Commercial and Industrial (C&I) lending eased further during the last three months of 2003, and loan demand also picked up.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States] (855.7)
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index retreated last week by 1.5% to 856. Nonetheless, purchase activity remains very high, thanks to mortgage interest rates that remain very low. As long as mortgage rates remain low, mortgage demand for purchases will be sturdy. While it looks good relative to a month ago, the refi index stands considerably below its heights of last year.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States] (-5)
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index was unchanged this week, finishing the month of January up slightly from the start of the year.
RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States] (65.7)
FIRST TAKE: Services industries started off 2004 on a strong note, as the ISM Non-Mfg Index soared past consensus expectations and rose a full 7.7 percentage points to hit a new record high of 65.7%. This marks the fifth time in the past seven months the index surpassed the 60% benchmark.
RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States] (1.1%)
FIRST TAKE: December factory orders surpassed (low) expectations, rising 1.1%. Importantly, it was not simply strong nondurable orders, but a revision to durable orders--from a 0.1% decline to a 0.3% increase. That�s good news.
RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States] (-0.6%)
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales slipped in December, which is typical at the end of the year. On a year-over-year basis, chip sales continue to climb at a strong clip. The broad rebound in chip sales is expected to be sustained this year.
RELEASE: Personal Income [United States] (0.2%)
FIRST TAKE: Personal income grew 0.2% in December and spending rose 0.4%, both in line with expectations and slower than November. Income was revised downward in November while spending was revised up. Wages fell in December for the first time since October 2002. The saving rate fell to 1.3%.
RELEASE: ISM Index [United States] (63.6)
FIRST TAKE: The ISM index for January rose slightly over December�s revised figure. At 63.6, the index is still signaling a rapid expansion in the nation�s manufacturing sector. Moreover, the employment component of the index remained above 50 for the third straight month.
RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States] (0.4%)
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending expanded by 0.4% in December, a healthy gain but still below the consensus estimate of 0.8%. November was revised down from 1.2% to 0.5%, indicating construction activity lost some momentum during the fourth quarter.
Week ending Jan 31
RELEASE: GDP [United States] (4.0%)
FIRST TAKE: The first look at fourth quarter GDP growth yields a solid, though below consensus, reading of 4%. Nonetheless, growth was generally broad based, suggesting a recovery still on track.
RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States] (257.3)
FIRST TAKE: Without a doubt, recovery is accelerating in New York City, according to the NAPM-NY survey in January. The headline Business Conditions Index reached 257.3 during the month, the highest level in over a year and a 6.1% increase from the reading in December.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States] (103.8)
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for January was 103.8, up over 11 points from December and fractionally higher than the preliminary reading. This puts confidence at its highest value since November 2000. Both components rose strongly from December.
RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States] (65.9)
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI soared above expectations, rising to its highest reading since July 1994. Manufacturing activity remains extremely strong, although robust production has yet to translate into rising payrolls.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States] (132.7)
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 10.8% during the week ending January 23. This came despite a modest decline in the index�s level from 133.3 to 132.7.
RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States] (-1.8%)
FIRST TAKE: Agricultural commodity prices fell 1.8% between December and January. Coming as no big surprise, cattle prices fell sharply due to the discovery of mad cow disease. Other prices that came in lower this month include lettuce and milk, which offset the higher prices farmers received for eggs, soybeans, corn, and broilers.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States] (342,000)
FIRST TAKE: Today�s release has no surprises. Last week initial unemployment insurance claims totaled 342,000, in line with consensus estimates and about equal to the level of the previous two weeks. The trend of slow recovery in the labor market is firmly set. Continuing claims rose slightly, to 3.1 million, but are also trending down.
RELEASE: Employment Cost Index [United States] (0.7%)
FIRST TAKE: Employment costs accelerated by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2003, below consensus expectations. Both wage and benefits costs moderated; still, benefit costs acceleration accounted for over half of the increase in total compensation costs. Low employer costs are likely helping corporate profits, but healthcare costs remain a serious concern.
RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States] (0.13)
FIRST TAKE: The December edition of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at 0.13, marking the fourth consecutive month the U.S. economy has recorded above-trend economic growth. November�s initial estimate was revised upward from 0.55 to 0.68.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States] (38)
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board�s help wanted index dipped by one point, to 38, contrary to expectations. This confirms suspicions that while layoffs are abating, companies are still reluctant or don�t need to take on new workers.
RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States] (1.8%)
FIRST TAKE: The labor market is in transition. Layoffs are abating strongly, while hiring activity is just picking up. Layoffs are down sharply, off 14% compared to a year ago. The number of available job openings has risen by 1.8% and the number of hires is up by 3.1%, the second month of increase.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States] (868.9)
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index retreated last week by 5.2% to 869, following a three-week surge. Nonetheless, purchase activity remains very high, thanks to mortgage interest rates that remain low. The refi index also looks good relative to a month ago, but remains far from the boom of last year. As long as mortgage rates remain low, mortgage demand will be strong.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States] (-5)
FIRST TAKE: Consumer confidence fell two points this week, partially reversing last week�s gain. Remarkably, this is the first time the index has declined since early October.
RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States] (0.0%)
FIRST TAKE: In a surprise disappointment, December durable goods orders fell marginally (by $100 million). November�s decline was revised to be less severe, now a 2.3% decline versus the 3.1% decline originally reported.
RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States] (7,510.0)
FIRST TAKE: The second quarter 2003 gross employment data indicate that both job losses and job gains slowed as the war in Iraq cast a pall over the economy. The economy created 7.5 million jobs while losing 7.7 million. Expanding and contracting establishments accounted for most of the activity, as opposed to new and closing firms.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States] (1,060,000)
FIRST TAKE: Consensus got it partially right this month, with sales of new homes declining in December to 1.060 million units. At -5.1%, the month-to-month change is deeper than expected, however, as Census revised upward November�s figure. December�s decline is the second in a row, but lower mortgage rates at the end of last year and the beginning of this year suggest that stronger sales could still be in the offing.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States] (1.1%)
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales jumped 1.1% in the week ending January 24, following three consecutive weeks of decline according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth improved to 4.4% after dropping to its lowest rate since last August in the previous week.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States] (96.8)
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence rose about 5 points to 96.8 in January, more than reversing December�s decline. Both components of the index rose with the present situation index gaining slightly more. Improving labor markets likely contributed to the gain.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States] (108.0)
FIRST TAKE: Investor optimism continues to advance, hitting a 22-month high in January. The gain was exclusively a product of investors� improved outlook on their personal finances. The economic component fell this month.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States] (6.47 Million)
FIRST TAKE: Sales of existing homes advanced at a stronger than expected pace in December, rising by 7% from November to 6.47 million annualized units. This rise brings the pace of sales up to its second fastest ever. Falling mortgage interest rates at the end of last year are bolstering demand for homes again.
Week ending Jan 24
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States] (133.1)
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 9.6% during the week ending January 16. Pushing the growth rate higher was a substantial increase in the index level, which climbed from 131.4 to 133.1.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States] (341,000)
FIRST TAKE: Layoffs continue to abate. Initial jobless claims continue to decline, falling to 341,000 last week, following a total of 342,000 in the previous week. Continuing claims also continue to fall, declining to 3.14 million in the second week of January.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States] (0.2%)
FIRST TAKE: The index of leading indicators improved by 0.2% in December, in line with expectations, though the November gain was revised down to 0.2% from 0.3%. December gains were driven by the continued decline in unemployment insurance claims, vendor performance, and rising equity prices and building permits.
RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States] (1,929)
FIRST TAKE: The monthly mass layoff data reported that employers initiated 1,929 mass layoff events involving 192,633 workers in December. The manufacturing industry continues to account for the largest portion of mass layoffs, while the Midwest region reported the highest number of initial claims for the second consecutive month.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States] (916.1)
FIRST TAKE: Mortgage rates fell again last week, and mortgage applications for purchase went through the roof, with the MBA purchase index easily setting a new record of 501.6. The refi index also spiked upward to its highest point since last August. The composite index advanced by 30%. As long as mortgage rates continue to move down, mortgage demand will be strong.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States] (-0.7%)
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales retreated for the third consecutive week last week. The ICSC-UBS chain store sales index dropped 0.7% in the week ending January 17. Year-over-year growth fell to 3.9%, the weakest since last August.
RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States] (2.09 million)
FIRST TAKE: Defying expectations, housing starts continue to escalate, with December starts advancing by 1.7% to 2.088 million units. Starts are at their highest point in about 20 years. The strength, however, is in multifamily construction, which surged. Single-family starts slowed slightly, declining by 0.6% from the previous month. Residential construction will be a strong force in the nation�s fourth quarter output.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States] (-3)
FIRST TAKE: Like the surge in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index surged in the first half of January. With a four point gain this week, the index is now up six points since the year began.
RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States] (68)
FIRST TAKE: The NAHB index slipped to 68 from 70 in the previous month. While builders remain optimistic over the new home market, thanks to still low mortgage interest rates, a strengthening economy and lean inventories, slower sales are dampening their recent euphoria.
Week Ending January 15
RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States] (0.3%)
FIRST TAKE: Business inventory data followed consensus expectations for November, with a gain in inventories accompanied by a slightly larger increase in sales. The total inventory-to-sales ratio remains unchanged at the record low 1.35. All in all, another positive report for the U.S. economy.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States] (0.1%)
FIRST TAKE: Growth in industrial production was surprisingly weak in December, rising by only 0.1%, though the gain of the previous month was revised higher to 1%. Most of the major market groups experienced modest declines this month, though manufacturing did expand by 0.3%. Despite the weak growth this month, the recovery in the industrial segment of the economy continues.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States] (103.2)
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for January was 103.2, up over 10 points from December. This puts confidence at its highest value since November 2000. Both components rose strongly.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States] (131.3)
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) stumbled again, falling from 9.2% to 8.9% during the week ending January 9. This comes despite a solid increase in the index�s level from 129.7 to 131.3.
RELEASE: California Manufacturing Survey [United States] (63.9)
FIRST TAKE: The California purchasing managers composite index rose for the second consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter to a very high figure of 63.9. The rise indicates a strong improvement in manufacturing conditions in California. Expanding production and a sharp rise in new orders were the primary reasons for the improvement in the fourth quarter.
RELEASE: GDP [Euro Zone] (0.3%)
RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States] (39.2)
FIRST TAKE: The NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that conditions continue to improve for manufacturers in the state during January as the general business conditions index reached a record high reading of 39.2, well above the consensus estimate of 34.5.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States] (343,000)
FIRST TAKE: Fewer workers filed for jobless claims last week than was expected. Initial jobless claims fell to 343,000, continuing a downward trend, while the previous week�s total was revised to 354,000. The number of people filing for continuing claims fell sharply at the beginning of the year, to 3.13 million, suggesting that more workers may be finding new jobs.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States] (0.2%)
FIRST TAKE: The consumer price index rose 0.2% in December, meeting expectations. Core consumer prices, which omit volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% for the month. Core inflation remains 1.1% over the last year.
RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States] (0.5%)
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales rose 0.5% in December, below expectations. However, November sales growth was revised upward 0.3 percentage points. Autos led the gain as non-auto sales grew only 0.1% for the month. Core sales grew 0.2% as gas station sales fell.
RELEASE: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey [United States] (77%)
FIRST TAKE: The MAPI index of future business activity rose to 77 in December, the highest level the index has reached in the 31 years it has been calculated. The result indicates that manufacturing activity should rise in the next three to six months. Nearly all component indices rose, including an increase in the profit margins index to 66 from 45.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States] (2,414 Bcf)
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 153 billion cubic feet during the week ending January 9, just in line with expectations.
RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States] (38.8)
FIRST TAKE: The recovery in the Third District�s manufacturing sector continues to make significant strides. January�s diffusion index for the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 38.8, indicating a solid expansion in activity during the past month. The reading easily exceeded the 29.0 consensus estimate.
RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States] (-$16.2 billion)
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for December was $16 billion, larger than CBO�s preliminary estimate of $13 billion. Through the first three months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $129 billion.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States] (702.6)
FIRST TAKE: According to the MBA, mortgage rates descended to near a record low last week, and the demand for mortgages responded with a sharp jump upward. The MBA index advanced by 17.1% to 702.6. The purchase index is approaching record territory. The refi index advanced strongly, but remains weak by comparison to the boom last spring. As long as mortgage rates move down, mortgage demand will be strong.
RELEASE: PPI [United States] (0.3%)
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.3% in December, which was slightly faster than prior expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices for finished goods fell by 0.1%, and prices for intermediate goods rose by 0.1% on the month.
RELEASE: International Trade (FT900) [United States] (-$38.0 billion)
FIRST TAKE: The trade deficit narrowed during November. An increase in exports and a decrease in imports pushed the trade balance to -$38.0 billion after registering -$41.6 billion in the previous month. The improvement was better than expected, and reflects the adjustment of the U.S. external sector to the weak dollar.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States] (-7)
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index was unchanged this week after rising two points in the previous week. The index is still at its highest level since July 2002 and two points above its historical average.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States] (-0.4%)
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales retreated modestly for the second consecutive week last week. The ICSC-UBS chain store sales index dropped 0.4% in the week ending January 10. Year-over-year growth slipped to 4.9%, the weakest in five weeks.
RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States] (0.2%)
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 0.2% in December, less than was expected, as nonpetroleum import prices rose just 0.1%. Export prices also rose 0.2% for the month, a result that is likely to be reversed in January when the effects of mad cow disease fully enter the index.
RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States] (8)
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Fifth Federal Reserve District continued to grow in December. The shipments index fell three points to eight, but, with new orders, grew more rapidly than November. The employment advanced to zero, and the average workweek and wage indices improved. Expectations remain bright.
RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States] (1)
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Tenth District strengthened during December and manufacturers� expectations for future activity remained very high.
Week Ending Jan 10
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States] (1,000)
FIRST TAKE: The labor market remains a glaring weakness in the nation�s recovery. Only 1,000 jobs were created in December on net, far below consensus estimates. Although the unemployment rate fell 20 basis points, to 5.7%, this occurred because of the decline in the labor force.
RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [N/A] (-1.6%)
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) fell for the third month in a row in December to 113.5, after November�s figure was revised downward to 115.4. Other FIGs, which trail the U.S. by one month, either rose or held steady. The euro-zone and Canadian FIGs rose, the former including a rise in all four component country FIGs, while the U.K. and Japanese FIGs held steady.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States] (129.7)
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) stumbled again, falling from 9.6% to 9.2% during the week ending January 2. The index�s level remained unchanged at 129.7.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States] (4.2%)
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 4.2% in December according to the ICSC chain store index, the best December (and holiday season) sales growth since 1999. Sales generally exceeded recent projections as the month ended strongly, although increased discounting resulted in weak profits. Luxury retailers continued to outperform discounters.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States] (353,000)
FIRST TAKE: The number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits rose at the beginning of the year to 353,000 while the previous week�s tally was unchanged at 339,000. Continuing claims fell below 3.3 million for the third consecutive week.
RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States] (0.3%)
FIRST TAKE: The wholesale industry posted gains to both sales and inventories in November, conforming, for the most part, to consensus expectations. The report signals steady momentum for the industry�s recovery through the fourth quarter of last year.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States] (2,567 Bcf)
FIRST TAKE: Underground natural gas storage decreased by 52 billion cubic feet during the week ending January 2. Storage declined at the lower end of expectations. The smaller-than-expected draw will have a modestly bearish impact on natural gas markets, but will be offset by expectations for colder weather in the days ahead.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States] ($4.0 billion)
FIRST TAKE: Consumer credit outstanding advanced by $4.1 billion in November, slightly below consensus. October�s gain was revised up massively, to $8.3 billion from $900 million.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States] (599.9)
FIRST TAKE: Mortgage demand bounced back last week from the sharp decline of Christmas week. The MBA index advanced by 4.5% to 599.1. The purchase index has once again just crossed the 400 mark indicating very strong demand, while the refi index remains low at 1,755.4. The gains were achieved despite the fact that the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage moved up above 6%. Overall, the index is heading back to a downward trend, although continued volatility along this path is expected.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States] (-7)
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index continues to advance, rising two points in the latest week. The index is now at its highest level since July 2002 and two points above its historical average.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States] (-0.1%)
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales gave back only a tiny fraction of the prior week�s strong gains as the holiday season continued to end strongly. The ICSC-UBS chain store sales index dropped 0.1% in the week ending January 3. Year-over-year growth improved marginally to 5.6%.
RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States] (93,020)
FIRST TAKE: U.S. companies are still downsizing despite the solid rebound in the nation�s economy. The number of announced job cuts fell to 93,020 in December, down from 99,452. Industrial goods producers, computer manufacturers and telecommunications providers accounted for the largest number of cuts.
RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States] (-1.4%)
FIRST TAKE: November factory orders were about as expected, falling 1.4%. The plunge in durable goods orders reported late last month was revised to a smaller figure and nondurable orders were marginally down. Conversely, shipments and unfilled orders rose again, while inventories fell again.
RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States] (58.6)
FIRST TAKE: The ISM Non-Mfg Business Activity Index came in well below expectations for the second straight month, falling from 60.1% to 58.6% in December. In addition, this marks the first month since May that the index failed to surpass the 60% mark. Nonetheless, a 58.6% reading still indicates a healthy pace of expansion in the nation�s service-producing industries.
RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States] (4.5%)
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales continue to climb. November chip sales rose 4.5% over the previous month and are up 17.4% year-to-date, supported by strong consumer electronics demand and computer sales.
RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States] (18.0 Million)
RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States] (1.2%)
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending beat expectations in November, rising 1.2% versus the consensus estimate of 0.9% on the strength of homebuilding and public construction activity. October�s initial estimate was revised upward from 0.9% to 1.1%.
Thats awsome occrider
*sticky* (please!)
ya i'd be interested in seeing updates every 2 weeks or so... graphs would be nice once a month too if you can come by them... oh and and a nice greasey hamburger.... and maybe also a free beer to wash it down with...
looks like occrider has come up with his very own blog idea. Better patent it quick!... Lemme be your publisher, I'll only take 90% 
It's the jobs stupid!
| quote: |
| Originally posted by rizen It's the jobs stupid! |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider Yes and how do you think jobs are created? |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider Yes and how do you think jobs are created? |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by rizen Not by outsourcing |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by rizen Not by outsourcing |
MmmmmmMMm nice compilation of Data. I just heard today that the job increase was still below from expected. ( some 115,000, compared to the 150,000 expected at least.- If I can remember right ). Still showing the glarinz weakness of the economy..?
Today's indicators:
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 123.6
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed in the next six to eight months for the global economy. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.8 points for the month of December 2003 after a 0.9 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of change also increased for the ninth consecutive month after showing a downward trend between May 2002 and March of 2003. During December, conditions improved in the U.S., Canada, the euro zone and Japan.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 112,000
FIRST TAKE: Nonfarm payrolls advanced by 112,000, somewhat below consensus. The unemployment rate declined to 5.6%. December payrolls were revised up to 16,000, although benchmark revision affected all of last year�s figures. Manufacturing employment continued to decline (-11,000), while retail trade came in strongly as expected, with a seasonally adjusted gain of 76,000.
RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) increased in January to 114.1, after three months of decline. December�s figure was revised downward by 0.4 points to 113.1. Other FIGs, which trail the U.S. by one month, were mixed. The U.K., Canadian and Japanese FIGs rose, while the euro-zone FIG fell as three of the four country FIGs in that index declined.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.6
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 11.5% during the week ending January 30. This came amid a marginal decline in the index�s level from 132.8 to 132.6.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $6.6 billion
FIRST TAKE: Growth in December consumer credit outstanding came in just shy of expectations. Once again, credit card growth was weaker than nonrevolving growth.
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider Well I guarantee you that if businesses are losing money, there won't be any job growth at all. |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider On a somewhat positive yet slightly disappointing note, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6%. The lowest it's been in two years. (it's disappointing because the consensus was for a bigger drop). |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by LiquidX MmmmmmMMm nice compilation of Data. I just heard today that the job increase was still below from expected. ( some 115,000, compared to the 150,000 expected at least.- If I can remember right ). Still showing the glarinz weakness of the economy..? |
It's funny how people around the world are bitching about a 5.6% unemployment rate. It's nearly the lowest in the Western world, and essentially half of Germany's 11% rate.
| quote: |
| Originally posted by imokruok It's funny how people around the world are bitching about a 5.6% unemployment rate. It's nearly the lowest in the Western world, and essentially half of Germany's 11% rate. |
Very interesting information. My props go out to you. I for one would read it.
Other information which would assist in giving a clearer signal of the US economy is the level of bankruptcys, levels of personal and municipal debt etc. Not being an american I do not know which organisation releases that data. Growth based on unsustainable debt is like building a house on quicksand, it might look good to start with but inevitably it sinks.
This site has excellent links to raw data charts
http://www.financialsense.com/monitor.htm
For analysis of economic issues, without the shrill boosterism of the mainstream press and financial media
http://www.levy.org/2/index.asp?
From an investors perspective:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdat...est-digest.html
From the Morgan Stanley webpage
(3) The imbalance between �capitalists� and �labourers�, i.e., those who hold financial wealth versus those who don�t, is the least appreciated imbalance. One cyclical source of this imbalance has been rate cuts. Interest rates are the cost of capital: lower rates incentivise economic agents to engage in capital expenditures. However, wages are the cost of labour and these tend to be sticky. When interest rates collapsed, relative costs were heavily skewed in favour of capex rather than employment. This is one key reason why we are seeing a US jobless recovery: firms are not incentivised to hire workers when the cost of capital is so low. One structural source of this capital-labour imbalance is outsourcing. Outsourcing is also advantageous for US capitalists and is one of the key reasons why US productivity has been so high and the profitability of US firms should remain superior but, at least over the medium term, is negative for US labourers.
Week ending Feb 15
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 363,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose for the second consecutive week, climbing to 363,000 last week. Claims for the prior week were revised up slightly, to 357,000. This blip does not alter the generally improving trend found in recent months. Continuing claims fell to their lowest total since mid-2001.
RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales fell 0.3% in January, below expectations, due to a larger than expected decline in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.9% as projected. December sales growth was revised down, due to a downward revision to the growth of auto sales. In January, apparel, grocery, gas and sporting goods sales led the way.
RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories followed consensus expectations exactly in December, posting a moderate 0.3% increase. The inventory increase was paired with a larger gain in sales, driving the inventory-to-sales ratio to a new record low.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,603 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 224 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 6. The draw exceeded expectations for a decline of 194 Bcf. Thus, today�s report will have a moderately bullish impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$1.4 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for January was $1 billion, on track with CBO�s preliminary estimate of $1 billion. Through the first four months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $130 billion.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 797.8
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index declined last week by 6.8% to 798. Nonetheless, purchase activity remains very high, thanks to mortgage interest rates that remain very low. As long as mortgage rates remain low, mortgage demand for purchase will be sturdy. While it looks good relative to a month ago, the refi index stands considerably below its heights of last year.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -6
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index slipped a single point this week, marking the third straight week that the index was either flat or down. Confidence appears to have stalled lately after surging forward in recent months.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 268.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: The Energy Information Administration reported a decline in crude oil stocks by 2.7 million barrels during the week ending February 6. Motor gasoline stocks recorded a moderate draw while distillate stocks were down substantially during the week. Overall, the EIA�s data will have a bullish impact on the petroleum complex. The data published by the American Petroleum Institute are delayed.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales jumped 1.8% in the week ending February 7, more than reversing the prior week�s decline, according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth accelerated sharply to 5.9%.
RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 18
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Fifth Federal Reserve District continued to grow in January. Indices of production and orders improved, although the employment index fell. Expectations weakened slightly but remained bright.
RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Both sales and inventories for wholesalers exceeded expectations in December. Each posted healthy gains, with sales outpacing inventory additions. This report offers continued positive news for the wholesale industry�s recovery.
RELEASE: Survey of Business Confidence: 171.0
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains high, but has softened notably since peaking since late last year. Confidence has slipped most among real estate, business services and financial services companies. Businesses continue to report stronger sales and firmer pricing, however. Manufacturers and high-tech companies are particularly upbeat. Most businesses are also increasingly positive about their investment and hiring intentions.
RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 24
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve district continued to expand in January. The net percentage of firms reporting year-ago increases in production slid to 24 from the low thirties reported during the fourth quarter. Note, however, that a rating higher than 24 was last reported in 1998.
did you have european figures too?
where do you get it from?
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider Week ending Feb 15 RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 24 FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve district continued to expand in January. The net percentage of firms reporting year-ago increases in production slid to 24 from the low thirties reported during the fourth quarter. Note, however, that a rating higher than 24 was last reported in 1998. |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by St_Andrew did you have european figures too? where do you get it from? |
| quote: |
| Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Woohoo! Occ's making my town famous again! Aren't there any graphy thingies anywhere? Okay, I'll try and be a little more serious today. |
Question on Employment numbers in January
Okay, Occrider or anyone else, help me out here....
According to the BLS numbers, jobs rose 112,000 for the month of January. But Total employment rose by 496,000 in January after accounting for the adjustment to population controls.
Okay, what's "population controls"? How come I never hear of the nearly 500k job rise figure? Is it necessary to report population controls, because I do not run across this figure anywhere in the newpapers? Why is that?
Thanx
Oh yeah, here's a link in case you're interested:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Re: Question on Employment numbers in January
| quote: |
| Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Okay, Occrider or anyone else, help me out here.... According to the BLS numbers, jobs rose 112,000 for the month of January. But Total employment rose by 496,000 in January after accounting for the adjustment to population controls. Okay, what's "population controls"? How come I never hear of the nearly 500k job rise figure? Is it necessary to report population controls, because I do not run across this figure anywhere in the newpapers? Why is that? Thanx |
Re: Re: Question on Employment numbers in January
| quote: |
| Originally posted by occrider blah blah blah...why I think there are two different figures, 100,000 vs. 400,000, asides from the use of population controls to calibrate data, is due to there being two different measures of unemployment. |
You have just made me the most confused I have ever been in my life. I will no longer trust any economic statistics I hear form now on - you have made it completely obvious to me that no mere mortal will ever be capable of understanding what they actually need. That's it I'm through with the free market and all it's 'statistics' we need blant obvious control that only dumb people can understand available to us only by communism.
Re: Re: Re: Question on Employment numbers in January
| quote: |
| Originally posted by Yoepus WOW! You have just made me the most confused I have ever been in my life. I will no longer trust any economic statistics I hear form now on - you have made it completely obvious to me that no mere mortal will ever be capable of understanding what they actually need. That's it I'm through with the free market and all it's 'statistics' we need blant obvious control that only dumb people can understand available to us only by communism.I'm through with this economy and its 'statistics'! p.s. I can't wait for next week's update.. keep up the good work! |
. Whoops forgot to post friday's data ... must remember to do so tomorrow.
Week ending Feb 22
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices rose 0.5% in January, which was higher than expected, but not enough to raise the annual rate of inflation from the 1.9% rate set last month. Core inflation, which omits volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month, keeping core inflation at just 1.1%.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.9
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 132.9 for the week ending February 13. However, the upswing in the WLI was not robust enough to bolster the six-month growth rate, which dropped slightly to 10.5%.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 344,000
FIRST TAKE: As expected, jobless claims declined last week; the effects of weather, which are difficult to adjust for, had caused claims to increase recently. Last week, claims fell to 344,000, which is actually below the consensus expectation. Claims for the week ending February 7 were revised up to 368,000.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board leading indicators index rose 0.5% in January, in line with expectations. The increase was aided by improvements in labor market components, consumer confidence, and a rising stock market.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,431 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 172 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 13. The draw was roughly in line with expectations, which called for a marginally larger draw. Thus, today�s data will be largely neutral for natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 273.8 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a sizable build during the week ending February 13, while distillate fuel oil stocks recorded a substantial draw. Overall, today�s inventory data will therefore be neutral for petroleum markets.
RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 31.4
FIRST TAKE: Although a decline was anticipated, the Philadelphia Fed�s diffusion index came in well below expectations. Taking a broader view, however, manufacturing activity in the Third District remains strong.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 837.1
FIRST TAKE: Mortgage demand picked up last week, responding to another decline in mortgage interest rates. The MBA index increased by 5% to 837. As long as mortgage rates remain low, mortgage demand for purchases will be strong. By contrast, the refi index�s increase still leaves it standing considerably below its heights of last year.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 1.4%
FIRST TAKE: Despite recent weak readings on consumer confidence, chain store sales jumped another 1.4% in the week ending February 14, to a new high according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth soared to 7.5%, the best growth since the end of 1999.
RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.90 million
FIRST TAKE: Residential construction slowed in January, following the heated pace of construction that prevailed in the second half of last year. Housing starts declined by 7.9% to 1.90 million units. Census also revised downward December starts slightly. January�s decline was a bit deeper than expected. Nonetheless, builder optimism remains solid and inventories are low, and these forces are keeping construction activity running at a very strong pace.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -13
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index plunged this week, matching the longest one-week drop in the 18-year history of the survey. Consumer expectations also declined this month. Although this weekly consumer comfort survey rarely moves markets, this week�s unusually large drop, coupled with last week�s poor reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, could weigh on the financial markets today.
RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 42.1
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity remains on the road to recovery in New York as the NY Empire State Manufacturing survey was reported today at 42.1, well above the 39.5 consensus.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Growth in industrial production was very healthy in January at 0.8%, this was slightly above expectations. The gain of the previous month was revised lower, so that industrial output was flat for December. All of the major market groups experienced healthy gains for the month. This report indicates that the recovery in the industrial segment of the economy continues.
RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 65
FIRST TAKE: February�s NAHB index slipped by four points to 65 from the previous month. This drop brings the index to its lowest point since last July. Unusually cold weather skewed the index down, but February�s reading continues the downward trend that has been increasingly evident over the last several months. Nonetheless, the index remains in sturdy territory and expectations are still solid.
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