A Little Bash on Political Analysts...

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-- A Little Bash on Political Analysts...

Posted by squirrelly on Feb-23-2004 23:33:

A Little Bash on Political Analysts...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62976-2004Feb22.html

quote:
At the beginning of the year, USA Today rated the Democrats by bestowing donkeys. Dean got four donkeys ("good odds") and Dick Gephardt three ("some chance"), with two apiece ("long shot") for John Kerry and Edwards. Oops.

Kurtz has some good points:

quote:
� Money: Journalists, including Halperin, repeated it like a mantra: Whoever raises the biggest bucks in the year before the election is a lock for the nomination. Except that Dean raised $40 million in 2003 and didn't win a single primary. Kerry had to loan money to his campaign and has taken 15 of the first 17 contests.

� Organization: Reporters love to write pieces about ground troops, phone banks and get-out-the-vote drives, fueled by the belief that this is what wins elections. Dean and Gephardt were favored in Iowa in part because they were seen as having the strongest field operations. But they finished well behind Kerry and Edwards.

� Polls: Tracking polls and other surveys have repeatedly led the press astray. There was Dean's original asterisk status, followed by his huge lead at the beginning of January. There was Kerry and Edwards being all but written off because of low numbers in Iowa. In the days before last week's Wisconsin primary, as news stories began to focus on Kerry vs. President Bush in the fall, Kerry held a 53 to 16 percent lead over Edwards in an American Research Group poll. MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby gave Kerry a 47-20 edge. Edwards wound up within six points of the Massachusetts senator, shattering the "expectations" set by the media.

� Endorsements: Reporters love them, and voters are often indifferent. Al Gore's endorsement of Dean was trumpeted as a political earthquake but did little to help him. Nor did the backing of former senator Bill Bradley or Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. Popular South Carolina congressman Jim Clyburn supported Kerry, who still lost the state to Edwards.