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-- clear and present danger to worldwide ecomony ahead?
clear and present danger to worldwide ecomony ahead?
7 US carrier groups head to sea!
you seem a litle alarmed. I guess I would be too if I wasn't listening to this Armin V.B. set I got from djm2k just now. Fokking incredible! (highly recomend it) some older tracks, but he spins so well it really doesn't matter. I'm not a DJ.
There is a lot of good info in your links there, some a little dated but good indicators I guess. I'm not an economist either.
Maybe Occrider can give some perspective.
Two things to think about though.
1. Bush's much loathed relationship with the Saudis and OPEC's speculation on the EURO. Say what you will about the man but his economists see that they cannot sit idle to watch OPEC entertain the possibility of abandoning the dollar in favor of the EURO. If it happens, so be it, it won't be the death of the economy here. It is important however to wrestle down the trade deficit before that happens IMO. A weaker dollar is helpful in that regard.
2. China. This administration and the last one somewhat, have come under serious criticism over China's trade status, but China cannot be ignored. With their currency following ours, as with many other nations, they are the fastest growing economy in the world right now. They also buy more oil from OPEC than any other nation next to ours. That doesn't help our deficit too much but you don't want to piss off the other 500lb. gorilla in the cage with you when you trying to nail his girlfriend.
WTF does that mean? whatever, I'm tired.
I'm gonna finish this AVB set and sleep on it.
I am skeptical about the US economy collapsing, but the US stock market and the US have to because of the debt will take a nose dive. Rising oil prices and rising interest rates to pay for the debt will cause a serious global recession because the main driver for global growth is China and Chinas growth rests heavily on exporting to the USA. When foreign investors sense that or as a result of China's own debt which is just as bad as the USA they will bail out of China and its economy will retract like the SE economies in the late 1980's. The USA achieved enormous growth in its economy or rather its stockmarket way beyond its actual worth and USA stockprices are way above their traditional average. I am quite glad I live in a country with a large debt problem. Government debt cripples the economy because it crowds out private investment which is where the real jobs and growth in productivity is centred. The USA is already a banana republic its just the financial markets havent woken up to it yet.
I doubt the economy will totally collapse, there is just too much infrastructure running this country. The dollar is weak because the high oil prices are stopping our economy from getting the gains it needs to really get out of this sluggish return from a recession. Once we settle in a more stable environment where we aren't worrying about interest rates increasing, oil prices being $40+ a barrel, and the house market bubble, and a $70billion/year war in Iraq with no real profitable gains as of yet, I think the dollar will rise again but its hard to predict when this will happen. Hopefully whoever is in place when Bush inevitably leaves office, they will have a plan to cut expenses and have a serious plan for the social security boom we are going to see in the next 10-20 years.
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