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-- My Political Prediction

My Political Prediction

Im thinking,

Conservative wins a minority gov't.

Tony Valeri - Transport minister looses to the NDP.

Gilles Duceppe leaves federal politics and joins the provincial bloc party to start a seperatist movement.

Harper is gonna make a big mistake that will be exploited.

Within 18 months, parliament will be dissolved ,an election is called because balance of power is just a mess.

Sheila Copps returns and wins her riding nomination and election from Tony Valeri

Paul martin will win a mojority gov't.


Thoughts??

sounds about right... but you didn't continue with how the Liberals will then take all of our tax money and use it to wipe the asses of the hookers they buy on their all-inclusive paid vacations during times they are needed in parliament. If only we had a real opposition party.

I somewhat agree with that first post...

I'm still optimistic that Canadians will come to their senses and not sacrifice their own principles simply to punish the Liberals by voting in Harper.

but...as much faith as I have in Canadians being smarter than that...I'm nervous. Let's say Canadians are misguided and they do vote in Harper. I agree 100% he'll do something *incredibly* dumb, in the spirit of Stockwell Day, and Canadians will realize their error.

Even if they don't win now...mark my words people will see the Liberals back in power sooner than they think...AND THEY'LL BE HAPPY ABOUT IT!

pfft i voted liberal on friday (advance voting). its better for problems in the government to be exposed rather than be kept secret.

quote:

Within 18 months, parliament will be dissolved ,an election is called because balance of power is just a mess

as what happened to joe clark and kim campbell?? seems plausible this time around too.

Heres my prediction:

Some people will vote
More people will bitch
Nothing will change

http://www.antville.org/img/conspir/nooooo!.jpg

duck = your next political leader.
ducklings = canada.

Are the Conservative really leading?

In my opinion I don't think the early surveying of 1000 Canadians is a good estimate of who may win the upcoming election. I don't even believe it should be used at all. Although these surveys suggest that the Conservatives may win with a minority government, I think we'll all be suprised as to what occurs on June 29th.

These surveys that have been done have surveyed 1000 or so Canadians to ask them what party they would vote for on the 29th, well we don't use the popular vote to elect a Prime Minister, the party with the most seats won is the one who wins. So why even waste money on such surveying when it doesn't truly reflect what is needed to be measured. A more appropriate way to predict the new Prime Minister would be to survey 100 people in each riding and then determine how many seats each party may possibily win.

I'm not saying that we should be alarmed that the Conservatives might win, I'm just saying there's a possibility we could be all suprised on the 29th

Re: Are the Conservative really leading?

quote:

Originally posted by ericF In my opinion I don't think the early surveying of 1000 Canadians is a good estimate of who may win the upcoming election. I don't even believe it should be used at all. Although these surveys suggest that the Conservatives may win with a minority government, I think we'll all be suprised as to what occurs on June 29th. These surveys that have been done have surveyed 1000 or so Canadians to ask them what party they would vote for on the 29th, well we don't use the popular vote to elect a Prime Minister, the party with the most seats won is the one who wins. So why even waste money on such surveying when it doesn't truly reflect what is needed to be measured. A more appropriate way to predict the new Prime Minister would be to survey 100 people in each riding and then determine how many seats each party may possibily win. I'm not saying that we should be alarmed that the Conservatives might win, I'm just saying there's a possibility we could be all suprised on the 29th

Agreed to a certain extent but ipsos-reid polls historically are pretty accurate so, lets wait and see

If anything, I would think that popular opinion polls would actually underestimate the level of Conservative support / seats they might win.

Think of it this way. The vast majority of people in the country live in urban areas, which tend to lean more toward Liberals / NDP, while rural areas tend to be more Conservative. In taking a "random" opinion poll of 1000 or so people, odds are you're going to hit a lot more people in urban as opposed to rural areas which would skew numbers higher for the Liberals / NDP. Keep in mind the rural ridings tend to have lower populations than urban ridings, so it's poosible for the Conservatives to win more seats with a lower amount of popular support.

82% of Canada's voting population live in Cities.

In addition, polling firms have fairly sophisticated statistical calculations they perform on their raw data to balance the final results. They adjust weightings of results from various demographics to equal the weight of those groups in the population at large.

quote:

Originally posted by mercure In addition, polling firms have fairly sophisticated statistical calculations they perform on their raw data to balance the final results. They adjust weightings of results from various demographics to equal the weight of those groups in the population at large.

Exactly... which is why when you look at these polling results, not only do they give % support, but they often also break it down into # of seats. Even though the Conservatives seem to be holding steady at about 1-2% higher than the Liberals (statistically, basically a dead heat), the seat projections put the Conservatives at about 120 or so seats, and the Liberals at about 90-95.... a result of the urban vs. rural split I mentioned previously.

I predict a minority conservative government and possibly a slim majority. I also predict that people will see that Harper's real agenda is cutting waste, taxes and corruption. Not the scaremongering that the media is dreaming up.

Whenever you hear scaremongering tactics in the media just remember that this is the same biased media that tried to scare the hell out of everyone with Sars and tried to make our rave scene look like a violent gangsters paradise.

I dont buy into media hype.

Polling

I understand that these polls have been historically accurate, but my question is how are they representative of the voting population? How can one use 1000 or so individuals to produce statistics that are valid and measuring what it sets out to measure?

Re: Polling

quote:

Originally posted by ericF I understand that these polls have been historically accurate, but my question is how are they representative of the voting population? How can one use 1000 or so individuals to produce statistics that are valid and measuring what it sets out to measure?

I recall that there is some mathematical formula that I learned in my 1st year statistics course at university that describes exactly how this is the case.

It's all based on a confidence factor and an error margin. In most of these polls, you'll see the confidence factor is 95% (Hence the "19 times out of 20" disclaimer). The error margin seems to generally be about +/- 2 or 3%. If you're comfortable enough with that error range and a 5% chance that you can be totally off (even more than the allowable error range), you can get by with a sample size that is just over 1000 people.

Obviously, if you wanted either a smaller error range, or an increased confidence factor, the sample size would have to increase.

statistics

I understand the statistics behind it, I'm sure the confidence intervals (significance levels) are legit. My issue is that these polls are not measuring what they are intending to measure accurately. Many of my courses in University were research based, I have become very critical as too believing the results of experimental research, polls, etc. From my understanding of research design, etc I know that constructs being measured in research, experiments, etc must be representational of what the purpose of the research is for (should be measuring what it is intending). In this case, I don't think these polls are at all representable of the actual voting population or done in a way that is representative of Canadian voting procedures. Perhaps I'd understand these polls better if I knew how the information was gathered.

With that being said, I guess we'll just have to wait till voting day to see how accurate these polls are.

quote:

Originally posted by Jayx1 I predict a minority conservative government and possibly a slim majority. I also predict that people will see that Harper's real agenda is cutting waste, taxes and corruption. Not the scaremongering that the media is dreaming up. Whenever you hear scaremongering tactics in the media just remember that this is the same biased media that tried to scare the hell out of everyone with Sars and tried to make our rave scene look like a violent gangsters paradise. I dont buy into media hype.

THANK YOU! All I've been reading about lately is how much people think Harper is going to screw up Canada. Like the Liberals havn't already? Politics is all about change. I'm voting Conservative today (advanced polling) for the reason Jayx mentioned.

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