The Long Shot in Ohio, and some numbers

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-- The Long Shot in Ohio, and some numbers

Posted by policerobots on Nov-03-2004 13:24:

The Long Shot in Ohio, and some numbers

Well, I was bored of reading about Ohio and decided to do some number crunching myself. Here it is:

OHIO
100% of Precincts Reporting
George W. Bush 2,777,645 - 51 percent
John Kerry 2,632,547 - 48 percent

With kerry winning ALL 200,000(estimated) provisional votes, they'll get it, but dont count on winning 100%. its impossible.

Lets assume it just IS 200k votes to make things simpler. the ballpark figure is around there too (175 - 250k i heard).

Buy anyways, Some Projections :

Kerry Getting 60% of the votes, and Bush Getting 40%
Kerry : 120,000 , Bush : 80,000

Bush : 2857645
Kerry : 2752547 (Bush Lead +105,098)

Kerry getting 70% of the votes, and Bush getting 30%:
Kerry : 140,000 , Bush : 60,000

Bush : 2,837,645
Kerry : 2,772, 547 (Bush Lead +65,098)

Kerry Getting 80% of the votes, and Bush getting 20%
Kerry : 160,000 , Bush : 40,000

Kerry : 2,792,547
Bush : 2,817,645 (Bush Lead +25,098)

Kerry Getting 90% of the votes, and Bush getting 10%
Kerry : 180,000 , Bush : 20,000

Kerry: 2,812,547
Bush: 2,797,645 (Bush Lead -14,902)

So Kerry is going to need somewhere around 85%+ of those votes.

Feel free to tear my numbers apart. (Although I did notice the total votes for both shifted since i did this, but it hasnt changed dramatically.)

Posted by LiquidX on Nov-03-2004 13:40:

It would be too much welcomed luck if he gets Ohio.

Posted by Mike_B on Nov-03-2004 13:48:

doesn't look like a very likely outcome, i did the numbers to and looks pretty much like yours. Im at work not near any TV right now. Keeps me posted i wanna know if anything else comes out

Posted by 0mii on Nov-03-2004 15:17:

the numbers seem mathematicly fine, but HIGHLY unlikely and impropable, bush has a strong lead right now and the previsional ballots aren't always counted and eligable all the time, Bush has pretty much gotten control of Ohio like most major U.S. networks declared last night.

Posted by EvilDust on Nov-03-2004 15:29:

Re: The Long Shot in Ohio, and some numbers

quote:
Originally posted by policerobots

So Kerry is going to need somewhere around 85%+ of those votes.

So what you're saying is...that Kerry has a chance! YES!