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-- Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?


Posted by girllovingtvibe on Dec-13-2004 16:33:

Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

"Four Bush biographers, Mark Lombardi, J.H. Hatfield, Danny Casalaro, and now Gary Webb--all "suicide" victims. What are the odds all of these people actually committing suicide?

Examining the male U.S.suicide rate for recent years
(http://www.suicidology.org/stats2001/1999datapage2.pdf), we can
extrapolate a conservative estimate of 17 male suicides per 100,000 people, or 0.017%. The odds of 4 specific, male biographers committing suicide would be the 4th power of 17/100000, or 8.3521 4.913 x 10^-17...roughly 1 chance 10,000,000,000,000,000. About as good a definition of impossible as you can get. A person would stand a better chance of playing the Canadian lottery 6/49 exactly twice in one's lifetime and winning ther grand jackpot BOTH TIMES! (That is, picking 6 numbers out of 49 possible numbers and matching all 6 numbers out of 6 random draws, on 2 separate occasions, and having only purchased two Canadian lottery tickets ever.) This calculation should be regarded as a conservative estimate: the actual odds against such a "coincidence" would be much greater. For example, if any of the biographers were female, the odds would be even greater."


Posted by George Smiley on Dec-13-2004 16:45:

They probably read the books after they'd finished


Posted by ogvh5150 on Dec-13-2004 17:14:

Kind of reminds me of the Clinton bodyguards.


Posted by Q5echo on Dec-13-2004 17:20:

Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by girllovingtvibe
"Four Bush biographers, Mark Lombardi, J.H. Hatfield, Danny Casalaro, and now Gary Webb--all "suicide" victims. What are the odds all of these people actually committing suicide?

source?


Posted by Petrogad on Dec-13-2004 18:42:

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
Kind of reminds me of the Clinton bodyguards.


Clinton bodyguards or everyone of Clinton's Friends who changed their minds about somthing......

lol


Posted by Zild on Dec-13-2004 18:54:

I'm not surprised thats how it goes down. People talk about not being able to talk down about Saddam Hussein but you better keep your damn mouth shut about Dubya too.


Posted by girllovingtvibe on Dec-13-2004 22:39:

Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by Q5echo
source?


not sure - will find out though - one of my buddies passed it along to me


Posted by jonSun on Dec-13-2004 23:17:

Re: Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by girllovingtvibe
not sure - will find out though - one of my buddies passed it along to me


Fuck the source. post more pics of you if that is you in your avatar.





















jk source please.


Posted by ogvh5150 on Dec-14-2004 00:19:

quote:
Originally posted by Petrogad
Clinton bodyguards or everyone of Clinton's Friends who changed their minds about somthing......

lol


Them too. Also look at the dead microbiologists.


Posted by St_Andrew on Dec-14-2004 02:46:

Re: Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by girllovingtvibe
not sure - will find out though - one of my buddies passed it along to me


haha, seems relieble

but its something if its true indeed.... IF


Posted by George Smiley on Dec-14-2004 03:44:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by jonSun
Fuck the source. post more pics of you if that is you in your avatar.





















jk source please.

Isn't that a bloke with long hair in the avatar?!


Posted by Q5echo on Dec-14-2004 03:46:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by George Smiley
Isn't that a bloke with long hair in the avatar?!

he's got real small shoulders then. i don't know, whatever.


Posted by George Smiley on Dec-14-2004 05:17:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by Q5echo
he's got real small shoulders then. i don't know, whatever.

He/She may just be thin...and considering they probably dont wanna talk to us anymore we'll probly never find out!


Posted by girllovingtvibe on Dec-14-2004 15:23:

Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by jonSun
Fuck the source. post more pics of you if that is you in your avatar.

jk source please.




nice - click here for more of that (shameless self promotion):
http://www.lovejoy.ca/penny_hayward_vocals.htm




FOR THE SOURCE CLICK HERE:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...her+%2B+suicide

or type any one of these into google:
"George W. Bush" + biographer + suicide + Hatfield
"George W. Bush" + biographer + suicide + Gary Webb

cheers!


Posted by occrider on Dec-14-2004 16:26:

Hmmm ok so if I look at UNC, which had 6 suicides recently, or NYU, which had 6 suicides in the past year alone:

http://www.cavalierdaily.com/CVArti...=20695&pid=1189

I can perform similar statistical analyses to determine that the probability of this happening through random chance alone is the 6th power of 17/100000 which is 2.4 x 10 ^ -23? Therefore, I can assume that UNC and NYU (or maybe the CIA) are secretely, yet actively assassinating their students? Why � it�s so simple! No wait, it�s needlessly complicated.

First off, the statistics are completely incorrect. Completely. If you want to compare a sample group against a population mean to determine statistical significant difference you do a t-test. Second of all, there are so many statistical causality errors that you can�t even do a proper t-test with the sample you have. It�s as if I were to test for microbial life of a rock sample from Mars and my petri dish is an eviscerated cow. For example, Webb wasn�t even a Bush biographer, he reported on CIA collusion with Contras in 1996. Some of the others died before Bush even took office. Furthermore, even if it was found that this sample group was statistically different from the population mean, the statistics would not infer a conclusion of "it was the government" that�s analogous to concluding that �God is the explanation� for every scientific hypothesis that is rejected.


Posted by ogvh5150 on Dec-15-2004 22:03:

Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

This is where girllovingtvibe most likely got it from:
4 Bush Biographers--All Suicided

quote:
Originally posted by girllovingtvibe
"Four Bush biographers, Mark Lombardi, J.H. Hatfield, Danny Casalaro, and now Gary Webb--all "suicide" victims. What are the odds all of these people actually committing suicide?

Examining the male U.S.suicide rate for recent years
(http://www.suicidology.org/stats2001/1999datapage2.pdf), we can
extrapolate a conservative estimate of 17 male suicides per 100,000 people, or 0.017%. The odds of 4 specific, male biographers committing suicide would be the 4th power of 17/100000, or 8.3521 4.913 x 10^-17...roughly 1 chance 10,000,000,000,000,000. About as good a definition of impossible as you can get. A person would stand a better chance of playing the Canadian lottery 6/49 exactly twice in one's lifetime and winning ther grand jackpot BOTH TIMES! (That is, picking 6 numbers out of 49 possible numbers and matching all 6 numbers out of 6 random draws, on 2 separate occasions, and having only purchased two Canadian lottery tickets ever.) This calculation should be regarded as a conservative estimate: the actual odds against such a "coincidence" would be much greater. For example, if any of the biographers were female, the odds would be even greater."


Posted by Fir3start3r on Dec-16-2004 11:21:

Read This! HUH?

Suicided ??


Posted by ogvh5150 on Dec-16-2004 20:55:

Suicided. adjective

It's a term used in the lunatic fringe (politically correct words are now conspiracy theorists) to denote some sort of "assisted" suicide.

Common examples of suicided persons are such as those that are thrown out of a window. With a suicide note left behind when the person had shown no signs of previous depression or mental illness. A suicide victim that does not want to commit suicicde but is made to look like a suicide did happen.

Examples of suicided victims include James Forrestal and Vincent Foster.

A word that is a combination of suicide and killed.

The word suicided has been used in news reports to denote a past tense event.


Posted by Q5echo on Dec-16-2004 21:01:

Re: Re: Odds of 4 Bush Biographers Committing Suicide?

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
This is where girllovingtvibe most likely got it from:
4 Bush Biographers--All Suicided

wait...did he just plagerize this thread? or is that him on the other forum?


Posted by ogvh5150 on Dec-16-2004 21:31:

girllovingtvibe has to answer for that.



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