I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

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-- I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

Posted by wwu.punisher on Jan-25-2005 05:04:

I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

I started with a "Free 20 Oz." cap from a bottle sometime last week. I have since won seven. In a row. Unbroken chain.

The odds of this are insane... Anyone know what my chances are of winning again? Isn't it just like 20⁸ to figure it out?

Posted by mezzir on Jan-25-2005 05:10:

if those are the odds, then there are 20^8 people somewhere out there that are really bummed, and its AL LBECAUSE OF YOU!

Posted by t�bias on Jan-25-2005 05:14:

Re: I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

quote:
Originally posted by wwu.punisher
I started with a "Free 20 Oz." cap from a bottle sometime last week. I have since won seven. In a row. Unbroken chain.

The odds of this are insane... Anyone know what my chances are of winning again? Isn't it just like 20⁸ to figure it out?

The odds of you winning again are simply the same odds as if you were opening your first bottle, the fact you have won 7 in a row is irrelevant.

Posted by Fast Turtle on Jan-25-2005 05:22:

If it's 1:12 like most of these soda things seem to be, the odds of getting seven in a row is 12^7...(I think?)

or 1:35831808

Posted by jpisani on Jan-25-2005 05:29:

I've done that before. I went in, bought a Sprite, went outside, opened it, it was a winner. I went back inside, got another, went outside, another winner, this happened 4 or 5 times, then the guy made me open it in the store, and threw me all off, thus resulting in a loser. Needless to say, riding your bike home with 5 or 6 bottles of sprite (5 of them capless) is a bit hard.

Posted by mezzir on Jan-25-2005 05:29:

Re: Re: I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

quote:
Originally posted by t�bias
The odds of you winning again are simply the same odds as if you were opening your first bottle, the fact you have won 7 in a row is irrelevant.

not true i believe
each time you open one you got 1 in 7 odds
but then two in a row would be 1 in 7 in 7, aka 1 in 49
etc
i think

Posted by wwu.punisher on Jan-25-2005 05:46:

Re: Re: Re: I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

quote:
Originally posted by mezzir
not true i believe
each time you open one you got 1 in 7 odds
but then two in a row would be 1 in 7 in 7, aka 1 in 49
etc
i think

Well... honestly, it seems like the odds would be 1 in 20 every time because I'm not drawing from the same pool. (In other words, it's a different pool every time.) HOWEVER, I have bought ALL SEVEN of these sodas at the same campus store. So... what now?

Posted by t�bias on Jan-25-2005 06:14:

Re: Re: Re: Re: I just won Lucky 20 for the seventh time in a row.

quote:
Originally posted by wwu.punisher
Well... honestly, it seems like the odds would be 1 in 20 every time because I'm not drawing from the same pool. (In other words, it's a different pool every time.) HOWEVER, I have bought ALL SEVEN of these sodas at the same campus store. So... what now?

If you had bought seven at the same time, and before you opened them wondered you odds of them all being winners then you are starting to look at big odds.

A simple example, having a child. Assuming the chance of a boy is 50% and girl is 50%, then the chances of having 5 girls in a row is 3.1%, quite low.

Now if you already had 4 girls, and you were wondering what the odds of having another girl are you will realise that your sperm didn't know you had 4 girls, and neither did the egg being fertilised, so your odds of having a girl are totally independent of previous events, so they are 50%.

It quite fair to say that after you have 5 girls you say "what are the chances of that?", and you could work out its 3.1%. But upon trying to have another child your odds at that time of having anothe girl are 50%.

Perhaps we should have done this in the maths thread.

Posted by mezzir on Jan-25-2005 06:31:

nah it may be flawed logic cause i'm a bit messed up
but stilll
say you had a pool of 49, and you chances of getting one were 1 in 7
therefore, there are 7 winners
the first one would be 1:7, or 7:49
but after that, you have a chance of 6:48
thats 1:8 my friend
however, since we're dealing with a supposedly infinite pool (lets just say that to make it easy. yes its the same store every time, but that should only matter if there's a specified number of winners per case, and thats not the case here)
so anyways, so get 1 in 7 the first time, 1:7
the next time, the odds have not changed, still 1:7 even though you just won
however, in a string of probabilities, you multiply the odds
so 1:7 the first time times 1:7 the second time = 1:49 odds that you will get winners on the first two picks
independantly, you get 1:7 on each try, but the more times in a row you win, the slimmer the odds
people know this to be true, but mistakenly think it applies to roulette tables, hence why they now have lil displays of past winners
people think that since, lets say black 18 hasn't won in ages, that its due to win
however, since you're drawing from a new pool every time, the odds are still exactly the same
[/ppd mode]

Posted by bas on Jan-25-2005 06:58:

ok if its 1 in 7 then no matter how many times you do it the odds are 1 in 7...its a permutation because order doesn't matter.....or maybe its a combination because order doesn't matter. god damn tv/drugs has wasted my brain

Posted by mezzir on Jan-25-2005 07:48:

nah we all know its pretty much 1 in 7 or w/e every time
but say its just 1 in 4, the odds of winning 7 times in a row should be about 1 in 16384
so definately plausible, just damn rare i guess
props!

Posted by trance85 on Jan-25-2005 08:41:

Well I didn't read the threads before this one, but if its a 1 in 12 win thing, then EACH time you go in, you have a 1/12 chance of opening a winner (obviously). If we were to say something like "Whats the chances of this guy opening up a winner 7 times in a row?" -- the odds would be different, I'm too lazy to figure out.

Anyways pissed me off once, I used to work a shit job as a clerk, and these jackasses came in one day with a free winner cap, then they got their sprite or whatever soft drink, opened it, got another winner, so they went to get another, opened it, another winner, then that little streak ended. They all got a free soft drink to go home with though so oh well not like I care, just means I don't have to ring anything up.

Posted by sym on Jan-25-2005 08:48:

What tobias is saying is how it is I believe, I remember learning it like that.

Every time you open a bottle it is totally indepedent of all the previous bottles you've opened. So therefore, everytime you open a bottle the odds are exactly the same of you having a winner. Think of it like flipping a coin. If you flip a coin and get heads 4 times in a row, the fifth time you flip it it doesn't mean that you are more likely to get tails simply because you've already gotten heads in the previous four throws.

Posted by bas on Jan-25-2005 08:54:

where did you get your sig from? does it change every post or what? cuz thats fucking cool. hahaha and that episode when he says 'blah blah blood wine" was just on earlier

Posted by Fast Turtle on Jan-25-2005 09:01:

quote:
Originally posted by dj_bas
where did you get your sig from? does it change every post or what? cuz thats fucking cool. hahaha and that episode when he says 'blah blah blood wine" was just on earlier

www.creamedgeezer.com

Posted by fbgdavidson on Jan-25-2005 09:25:

Bah you kids are so poor at math!

If the odds of winning one are 1 in 12 then the chance of winning consecutive times is (1/12) x (1/12) x etc

In this case 1/35,831,808. You should come to the UK since the odds of winning the jackpot on the lottery are about 1/14,000,000!