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China vs. Taiwan
I'm suprised that no one has talked about this yet.
I don't consider my self a conspiracy nut or doomsday freak, but to me the situation evolving between Taiwan, China and the rest of the world scares the hell out of me. You have China and it's still ever so communist military heartset on returning Taiwan and all of its technological resources to China. On the other side you have Taiwan who already has the backing of many nations to defend it militarily should it come under attack from China. Now that China has okay'd the use of military action to regain control of Taiwan (if all "peaceful means" of doing so fail), the situation over there I believe has reached a very critial point.
What are your thoughts?
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| US warns China on anti-secession law against Taiwan 14 Mar 2005 21:33:41 GMT Source: Reuters (Updates with State, U.S.-EU talks on China arms) WASHINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Monday criticized China's anti-secession law authorizing the use of force against Taiwan, calling its passage "unfortunate" and a potential setback to cross-strait relations. White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the United States opposed "any attempts to determine the future of Taiwan by anything other than peaceful means." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice plans to raise the issue during her visit to China on March 20-21. "Our view remains that they need to move in the direction of peaceful dialogue," said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. "She will encourage them to do that and look forward to hearing from them as to how they might be willing to move in that direction." Passage of the anti-secession law by China's parliament could harden U.S. opposition to plans by the European Union to lift its ban on arms sales to China, officials and congressional aides said. "Certainly the prospect that China would use non-peaceful means to try to resolve differences with Taiwan should be disturbing...to the Europeans as it is to us," Boucher said. "I suppose this is one element of that that they should look at." President George W. Bush has voiced concerns that ending the embargo could skew the military balance between China and Taiwan, and some U.S. lawmakers have threatened to curtail defense cooperation with Europe if it proceeds. A high-level delegation of European Union officials is visiting Washington this week to try to ease U.S. concerns. They point to a revised European code, due to be agreed on in coming weeks, that requires EU states to look hard at the human rights record of the importing country before granting licenses, as well as its history of passing on imported equipment to third countries. The Europeans imposed the embargo after China's bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The Taiwan Relations Act mandates that Washington supply Beijing's arch-rival with defensive weapons. "We view the adoption of the anti-secession law as unfortunate," McClellan told reporters. "It does not serve the purpose of peace and security in the Taiwan strait. We believe it runs counter to recent progress in cross-strait relations." Passage of the bill by China's parliament also drew warnings from the self-ruled island that Beijing would have to pay a price. The White House cautioned Taiwan as well. "We don't believe anyone should be taking unilateral steps, or make unilateral changes that increases tensions," McClellan said, adding, "We do not support Taiwan independence." |
Tend to agree that the situation doesn't look to good for Taiwan. As for us - it almost seems like China's fucking with us a bit, almost baiting us. But what on earth can we do? They've got a buttload of our debt, and they really feel powerful enough to do as they please.
I think we should definitely be a bit worried. As to how to handle the situation - how the hell would I know? Us progressives only spot problems, not solve them!
I think Condi's gotten a bit in over her head with so many global issues at steak right now. This certainly doesn't help her at all.
A Chinese attack would draw in our allies. China may be the only other world superpower at the moment, but they're a distant second at that.
[[[smoke]]]
To me it seems that China is trying to get on the nerves of the US rather than Taiwan. When push comes to shove China has a strong advantage over Taiwan in terms of, well, virtually everything. They have stronger military capabilities, finances and bargaining power. I doubt that this move is a push to strengthen themselves in relation to Taiwan, and neighbouring countries in the area, but rather the US.
If this move by China is just a bluff, then good on them.. anything to give the US the shits .. but if it's legit, them I'm worried shitless..
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The Taiwan Relations Act mandates that Washington supply Beijing's arch-rival with defensive weapons. |
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| Originally posted by Dupz To me it seems that China is trying to get on the nerves of the US rather than Taiwan. |
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| Originally posted by Fir3start3r The weapons were probably shipped from the States (via underground sources) but I highly doubt they had, \\\"With Love, Washington\\\" written on the crates. |
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| Originally posted by Lira Nah, I believe they're actually pissed because they consider Taiwan as a rebel province. Economically, I think it would be good for Taiwan if it became part of China though. |
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| Originally posted by zig economically i wonder if it would be good for China to piss the western world off by even considering to invade at a serious level.... |
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| Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN please explain how the world's two biggest military machines and nuclear powers staring each other down could ever be a good thing? |
Go Taiwan Go Taiwan Gooo....Woot...Woot!
If China makes a move, Bush should do what Reagan did...fund/arm China's enemies to the teeth. Use covert and psy-ops to encourage rebellion from within and put pressure on them directly using our alliances with Japan and South Korea. I don't think China is stupid. They just want a little attention...They won't make a move because the price is too high. They will have a fight with Taiwan (and the U.S. indirectly), and it will put the whole world against them.
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| Originally posted by zig economically i wonder if it would be good for China to piss the western world off by even considering to invade at a serious level.... |
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| Originally posted by Fir3start3r Gotta love that Marxist wording... |
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| The weapons were probably shipped from the States (via underground sources) but I highly doubt they had, "With Love, Washington" written on the crates. As for the U.S. they certainly are in a tight spot of over this situation. Everybody and their dog knows that China has a HUGE untapped market just waiting for someone, anyone to fill the void. Read this article and you'll see why the U.S are upset. Basically China just slapped them in the face... http://www.usaid.gov/policy/budget/cbj2005/ane/cn.html |
I agree with you Lira, people would be pissed off, outraged even, and sanctions would happen.
But not a shot would be fired from the western side.
However if the west pulled the plug on trade with China we basicly wouldn't be able to buy anything(well not at the current price), clothes, electronics and so on would cost shit loads more.
Selfishness will always prevail.
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| Originally posted by Dervish I agree with you Lira, people would be pissed off, outraged even, and sanctions would happen. But not a shot would be fired from the western side. However if the west pulled the plug on trade with China we basicly wouldn't be able to buy anything(well not at the current price), clothes, electronics and so on would cost shit loads more. Selfishness will always prevail. |
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| Originally posted by Lira Do you really think the so-called West would stop selling goods to the world most dynamic economy because of Taiwan? It'll be somewhat like Iraq - there was all this tension (I received a ridiculous amount of petitions asking to avoid the ward because it would trigger WWIII), but nothing happened other than the war itself. Japan and South Korea are not going to do anything to China. If China annexes Taiwan, China's popularity may decrease but no side effects other than that. |
and if war broke out Disneyland China wouldn't open!
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| Originally posted by biznology everyone is right here, in a way. (well except for Capitalizt, he is freaking clueless on China) Taiwan is *only* an issue since thats where the US led insurgency was run out of China before the CCPs rise. therefore its existence is based on the US's support, and the great and everpresent force that is nationalism. On chinas side, they see Taiwan as less of a Chechnya than a bargaining tool. they have threatened violence for decades, but nothing so far. it seems that neither China nor Taiwan can keep from posturing, certainly China has might, but Taiwan has the west - AND China still sees Taiwan as Chinese, which keeps them from blowing the ever living shit out of them, outside of Western support. eventually the two sides may agree, but expect more of the same. now about the Uighur in Xian...thats a more Western problem facing China...luckily bordering on Central Asia means fundamentalist problems take awhile to materialize| |
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| Originally posted by MisterOpus1 Reuters is writing "Marxist" style now? Huh? And I do agree with your assessment with an interesting link to boot. Just thought your Marxist comment was a bit of a stretch, sorry. |
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| Originally posted by zig i think its wrong to assume that nothing will happen to China economically as a result of an attack or an invasion...some obvious things standout.. Obviously the USA wont stand back and let China attack at will the least it will do is to impose economic sanctions..and these economic sanctions will be severe..and even if no other economic power were to impose sanctions only the USA it would still cause major difficulties for the Chinese economy |
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| Originally posted by zig The Chinese have a 100 billion dollar trade surplus with the US this would dry up overnight |
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| Originally posted by zig They also recieve about 50 Billion dollars of direct investment yearly most of this from US companies,due to sanctions this would also halt and the emerging vested interests in China would not be happy to see the inflows of money slowing. |
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| Originally posted by zig But these are only obvious ones,there are many more...with its economy driving ahead the Chinese have a huge appetite for oil and only have a 20 day surplus on current estimates(and this also poses a military question mark for an attack)Russia is one of its main suppliers of oil and dont forget its neighbour,the Russians would not ignore a military attack by one of its neighbours(dont forget history)and may also impose sanctions of its oil exports...Russia is not desirious of of China developing into a superpower to quickly and this could be another reason to halt oil exports..in a nutshell..Russia has oil...China needs oil... |
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| Originally posted by zig Also China has no desire to destroy its relationship with the USA and dont forget the public relations disaster the 2008 olympics would be if an attack took place before this |
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| Originally posted by zig But these are only some reasons....and thats before even touching on military logistics and the scale of such an attack,because the Taiwanese have massive defence systems...but we shall have to wait and see........... |
I can't understand why we think that if China were to invade or otherwise harm Taiwan it would be a "China vs. USA," type situation. If China were to go into Taiwan it would be the world (or at least the majority) that would retaliate in some form or another.
If you want a parallel, don't look at the second Gulf War, look at the first. Iraq invades Kuwait and you have wide-scale retaliation from a broad spetrum of countries. If the US were to condemn China and impose sanctions, not only would they not be alone in their action, I believe it would "black list" China in the eyes of the rest of the world.
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| Originally posted by Lira In a worst case scenario, Taiwan would become another Tibet. The US wouldn't be naive enough to impose major economic sanctions on China simply because other countries would have a broader access to the Chinese economy, and these countries wouldn't hesitate in expanding their business. Most likely, the US would whine to the Security Council they once ignored. Do you really think big companies like IBM would then withdraw from China, and lose a 1 billion people market? Not likely. Since I said these sanctions wouldn't exist, this wouldn't happen either. Russia has oil, China needs oil, Russia needs money, China buys oil. The Russian economy is still very fragile, and Taiwan doesn't threaten Moscow, and the Kremlin knows that. In three years, people wouldn't mind the invasion that much anymore. It's not like Iraq, where they're "fighting terrorism", but they're unifying the country. Most people wouldn't tell China and Taiwan apart anyway. Besides, by then people would be complaining about Tibet more than about Taiwan, unless they get themselves a Dalai Lama. Taiwanese have massive defence systems and the Chinese army is not only huge but, if anything at all, a high male death rate would finally balance the man:woman ratio |
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| Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Haha, the Uighur!!! Quite possibly the best name of a nationality ever. (Pronounced Wee-Gore). Just had to get that in. But in all seriousness, yes, fundamentalism is starting to rise among the Uighur, who are actually among the most devout Islamicists in the world (Think: Wahhabism). Also, sanctions would hurt Walmart more than they would hurt China. |
Firstly obviously this is conjecture, I don't actually, as most of you, don't think an invasion will happen. But a confrontation is not impossible.
Although it has a low GDP, it supplies us all. I would say the majority of the non-food stuff in my room right now probebly had some part or component in it made there.
The cost of all these things without the cheap labour would sky rocket. People don't want that so goverments don't want that.
It would take alot for any form of trade embargo to be imposed.
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