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Bird flu 'could kill 150m people'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

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Last Updated: Friday, 30 September 2005, 08:35 GMT 09:35 UK Bird flu 'could kill 150m people' A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official has warned. David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks. "The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging," Dr Nabarro told the BBC. Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more than 60 human deaths. "It's like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it's running at the moment," Dr Nabarro told the BBC. The UN's new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high. Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility "that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East", he warned. The comments came as agriculture ministers from the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed a three-year plan to combat the spread of the virus, and pledged $2m to fund research and training. Dr Nabarro stressed he would be working hard to control bird flu through contact with farming communities and markets where birds are sold and looking at the migration of wild birds. He said the number of deaths from any future influenza pandemic would depend on where it started, how quickly it was discovered and the kind of response they got from governments. "The range of deaths could be anything between 5m and 150m," said Dr Nabarro. "I believe that the work we're doing over the next few months will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 or in the direction of five. "So our effectiveness will be directly measured in lives saved and the consequences for the world." The appointment of Dr Nabarro is an indication of how seriously the UN is taking the threat, the BBC's UN correspondent Suzannah Price says. In his new role, he is meant to ensure that the UN has a co-ordinated response to bird flu and that it helps global efforts to prepare for any human flue pandemic, our correspondent says.

And why are not our politicans doing more? Really! 150 million is quite a lot of ppl... Bet our politicans will all be playing stupid (or perhaps they simply are a bunch of dumb asses) when it happens, telling us how no one could know beforehand...

Put what about all the birds??

How many birds will perish?

Ohh! The birdity! The birdity!

There is a cure but not for the common human.

Like the Spanish Flu of 1918 which was from genetic recombination of human and swine influenza, this too will probably be similar.

For the Conspiracy Theorist - I know this is old news but: Dead Microbiologist (TA thread)

I read this in the National Geographic. It said that in a worse case scenario it could actually kill over 300million

I have a different view on this. First of all, I don't think the bird flu is going to do a goddam thing. If we start worrying about this then we might as well worry about aliens landing and and exterminating us.
Second of all, evolution and the existence of the human race is based on survival of the fittest. So even if it kills 150 million people, those people probably deserved to get toasted in the first place. As long as it doens't kill me I really don't care.

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Originally posted by Gmoney part II I have a different view on this. First of all, I don't think the bird flu is going to do a goddam thing. If we start worrying about this then we might as well worry about aliens landing and and exterminating us. Second of all, evolution and the existence of the human race is based on survival of the fittest. So even if it kills 150 million people, those people probably deserved to get toasted in the first place. As long as it doens't kill me I really don't care.

what if you are not the fittest? You might very well die. So perhaps you should care?

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Originally posted by Gmoney part II I have a different view on this. First of all, I don't think the bird flu is going to do a goddam thing. If we start worrying about this then we might as well worry about aliens landing and and exterminating us. Second of all, evolution and the existence of the human race is based on survival of the fittest. So even if it kills 150 million people, those people probably deserved to get toasted in the first place. As long as it doens't kill me I really don't care.

The flu from WW1 is very similar to the bird flu we are facing now. With adjusted populations the bird flue could actually kill 100s of millions of people if a pandemic occured. Keep in mind that flu viruses mutate like crazy. The bird flu of today will not be the bird flu of next week

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Originally posted by St_Andrew what if you are not the fittest? You might very well die. So perhaps you should care?

If I am not the fittest then I will accept my death from the bird flu. Right before I do, however, I will get an 8 ball of cocaine and 5 strippers.
No seriously, I have faith in my being one of the fittest. Baring some kind of strange occurence, (like a tree falling on my head) I will be ok.
Plus, you can always hole yourself up in some mountain cave somewhere and wait for everyone else to die from the bird flu and then walk out and you will still be ok.

Anyone else gets the feeling this is the end of the world?

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Originally posted by Gmoney part II No seriously, I have faith in my being one of the fittest. Baring some kind of strange occurence, (like a tree falling on my head) I will be ok.

hmmmm, id like to know why you think youre one of the fittest, coz its plainly obvious that youre behind the intellectual evolutionary 8-ball.

This will sound harsh, and pretty uncaring of me. But this is one of my thoughts on it.

Nature has systems in place to control populations of species for the survival of the ecosystem. The human population has risen to a level where some kind of relatively quick decrease in population is, unfortunately, necessary. A pandemic disease is the most likely way for this to happen. We can do everything in our power to combat these illnesses, but another will come soon to attempt to take its place. At some point in the not too distant future, we are going to have a global pandemic. It may be the bird flu, it may be SARS, or it may be something much more dangerous like Ebola or the Hunta virus. It is going to happen.

It is no accident that these "new" possible pandemic virus strains are showing up in southest Asia first. The highest density of human population is in that region, thus it is the most "efficient" place to begin.

I do not take pleasure in having this opinion. But, if you look objectively at the situation, you will see what I have.

Yes, we should do all we can to contain outbreaks of this, or any disease. But we need to realize that at some point, the big one will hit, and no amount of preparation is going to save everyone.

MrS

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Originally posted by MrSquirrel This will sound harsh, and pretty uncaring of me. But this is one of my thoughts on it. Nature has systems in place to control populations of species for the survival of the ecosystem. The human population has risen to a level where some kind of relatively quick decrease in population is, unfortunately, necessary. A pandemic disease is the most likely way for this to happen. We can do everything in our power to combat these illnesses, but another will come soon to attempt to take its place. At some point in the not too distant future, we are going to have a global pandemic. It may be the bird flu, it may be SARS, or it may be something much more dangerous like Ebola or the Hunta virus. It is going to happen. It is no accident that these "new" possible pandemic virus strains are showing up in southest Asia first. The highest density of human population is in that region, thus it is the most "efficient" place to begin. I do not take pleasure in having this opinion. But, if you look objectively at the situation, you will see what I have. Yes, we should do all we can to contain outbreaks of this, or any disease. But we need to realize that at some point, the big one will hit, and no amount of preparation is going to save everyone. MrS

Ehm, what you basing your claim that humanity has reached a too high population on? As far as I know we are not near that level yet...

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Originally posted by St_Andrew Ehm, what you basing your claim that humanity has reached a too high population on? As far as I know we are not near that level yet...

I have no hard data for it, just like you have no hard data for it being not at that level.

But at the current size of the population worldwide, and the high rate of population growth, it is bound to be at that level now, or soon with no limiting factors.

Equilibrium is achieved by a net population growth of 0. Historically, war, natural disaster, and now curable diseases took a large toll out of the human population, keeping the growth rate at near zero levels. Those factors have been minimized in scope due to advances in technology.


MrS

The world still can hold more humans however I have to agree with Mrs. Squirrel that eventually a big virus is going to come and kill a lot of people. That is nature like she said. However I am hoping that this diseases will not be that deadly...

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Originally posted by MrSquirrel I have no hard data for it, just like you have no hard data for it being not at that level.

Well, we still have plenty of space and food for everyone. That's no problem to show data on. Can you show any similair data that I am wrong?

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But at the current size of the population worldwide, and the high rate of population growth, it is bound to be at that level now, or soon with no limiting factors.

Bond to be? Sounds like some religious freak preaching doomsday

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Equilibrium is achieved by a net population growth of 0. Historically, war, natural disaster, and now curable diseases took a large toll out of the human population, keeping the growth rate at near zero levels. Those factors have been minimized in scope due to advances in technology.

Growth rate in developed countries are near 0. Ever heard about the problem that ppl aren't having as many kids as before?

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MrS

St.A

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Originally posted by St_Andrew Well, we still have plenty of space and food for everyone. That's no problem to show data on. Can you show any similair data that I am wrong?

Space and food are not the only determining factors in "capacity", the ability to find potable water is a factor in which, much of the world outside of the developed western countries DO have a serious issues with.

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Bond to be? Sounds like some religious freak preaching doomsday

I am not a religious person, nor a conspiracy theorist.

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Growth rate in developed countries are near 0. Ever heard about the problem that ppl aren't having as many kids as before?

I have known longer than you that the localized growth rate in many countries is at or below 0 (due to my age vs yours). Never once was I speaking of a localized growth rate, I was speaking on the whole. A number of developed countries (with relatively low populations) having 0 to negative population growthrates does not counteract the highly populous countries with relatively high annual growth rates, like India which had an official census of 850 million in 1991 but now has 1.1 billion. That is a total numbers growth of nearly the entire population of the United States in less than a generation. Cut that growth rate in half just for that one locality (India) and you will still have a huge population increase year over year.

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St.A

Thank you at your attempts at mocking my Modus Operandi....

Adding my little 3 letter tag is an affectation I have had for many years, and I will continue to use it. Cheerio.

MrS

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Originally posted by MrSquirrel Space and food are not the only determining factors in "capacity", the ability to find potable water is a factor in which, much of the world outside of the developed western countries DO have a serious issues with.

I think thats the same reason as to why these countries don't have any food, ie they are not developed. Places like Scandinavia and Canada have pretty much unlimited fresh water supplies and could easily supply the rest of the world with water. So the problem is with under development not lack of resources.

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I am not a religious person, nor a conspiracy theorist.

Okay, good And I wasn't very serious with that comment

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I have known longer than you that the localized growth rate in many countries is at or below 0 (due to my age vs yours). Never once was I speaking of a localized growth rate, I was speaking on the whole. A number of developed countries (with relatively low populations) having 0 to negative population growthrates does not counteract the highly populous countries with relatively high annual growth rates, like India which had an official census of 850 million in 1991 but now has 1.1 billion. That is a total numbers growth of nearly the entire population of the United States in less than a generation. Cut that growth rate in half just for that one locality (India) and you will still have a huge population increase year over year.

Well, a population grows as most when it is going from a developing country to a developed country (ie healthcare etc develops, but old customs still remains). This is what we have seen with india recently and also china. However you can see that this trend is slowly changing now as they get more and more developed. Eventually they will to ahve a growth rate close to 0. Instead affrica is now the continent with the largest growth rate. So it's not like this development will continue forever.

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Thank you at your attempts at mocking my Modus Operandi.... Adding my little 3 letter tag is an affectation I have had for many years, and I will continue to use it. Cheerio. MrS

I was just kidding, take it easy

i think there are few factors or maybe moree, but i dont have the data.
that has an impact on the developed world

1) more old people, more funding needed for healthcare, which means we have to work harder to support an aging population- which leads to

2)delayed marriage-because of aging population, we, guys and gals in our 20s have to cook up as much money to support their bloody healthcare and their security funds. most old people go to casinos and spend it.

3)precontrolled births/ abortion- abuse by women, with the pills and abortion. women abuse it, leads to less birthrates.

4) premarital sex- which leads to point 3.

5) bloody house prices rising like shit, which also affect point 2 and 3.

6) freedom rights for women- leads to point 3 and point 8 where to compare to men, more women want jobs to measure up to men. sad case honestly. thats why old women become lesbians and but gain no happiness.

7) lesbian and gay rights- affects the birthrate tremendously!!!!!!!!
cannot stressed it enough.

8) education- more knowledge equals to a less risk taking and probability- gone to extreme where knowledge suppresses the need to start a family.

9) poor moral values- which leads to premarital sex- point 4


warning-

if the western world fails to comply or understand this threat, bye bye the white race, and prepare for integration and migration of third world countries into your urban environment.

to be honest, might go extinct. unless u buckle up and reproduced like rabbit.

abolish women's rights, kill the old people- they are killing our income or abolish security benefits.

bring the house prices down or ask the government to control house prices.

I think we just found ourselves a new christian fundie, awesome.

Since I have to study for a test today, I might come back and argue your points

Anyway killingjoke, you basically want us to go back to 19th century?

did not darwin say, in world war 4 , we will be fighting with sticks and stones?

unless, u want your race to be extinct, be my guest and play ball.

if you can get clones, thats solves everything, hmmmm violation of doppelgangers dejavu the 6th day and starwars stormtroopers.

hey have it your way, the path is open.
choose withever is suitable; for more generations of your surnames to come or men's own men made recipe for their own extinction.

Okay before I even start, I agree with MrS. The world is far too overpopulated for an epidemic to not come about. Natural processes lead to this. It's just like when we had the plague, the whole human race was not exterminated, but a large portion of it was. Even with all of our technology, we cannot be so foolish as to assume we are in some Godly position where we can eliminate the possibility of epedemics. Truth be told, I hope that this thing does kill all the birds... but that's just because I have a prejudice against them due to an irrational fear of them.

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Originally posted by killingjoke i think there are few factors or maybe moree, but i dont have the data. that has an impact on the developed world

Before I get to the rest of this... off the wall comment much? This isn't a "what has impacted the world" thread, but okay... if you want to go into it, it's your choice.

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1) more old people, more funding needed for healthcare, which means we have to work harder to support an aging population- which leads to

Actually, I do believe I just got done watching a special about how elderly people have more money than they think due to the fact that they put it all in their savings, and that elderly people actually have more money than some younger people. I can't remember exactly where I heard this from but it was a special on one of the news programs that I watch. Not only that, but this has been around for all of time. This is not some "new" development.

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2)delayed marriage-because of aging population, we, guys and gals in our 20s have to cook up as much money to support their bloody healthcare and their security funds. most old people go to casinos and spend it.

And what's the problem with that? Are we back a couple of decades where you need to be married by the time you're twenty or you're the old lady with the cats for the rest of your life? I'm in my twenties and I can't imagine getting married anytime soon.

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3)precontrolled births/ abortion- abuse by women, with the pills and abortion. women abuse it, leads to less birthrates.

Hello?! Birth control is one of the best inventions. I don't know if you've paid attention to anything at all in your entire life, but the world is becoming overpopulated. Take a look at SouthEast Asia if you don't believe me. The rest of the world is catching up pretty quickly. In Florida alone, the birth rate DOUBLED this year due to all the "hurricane sex" that went on last year from all the hurricanes. Baby boom much?

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4) premarital sex- which leads to point 3.

And the problem with premarital sex....?

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5) bloody house prices rising like shit, which also affect point 2 and 3.

What does this have to do with anything? Rising house prices is due to rising economic issues. 9 times out of 10, if you're living in a city with higher living expenses, you usually get higher pay. If you're working at McDonalds... you're sol buddy.

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6) freedom rights for women- leads to point 3 and point 8 where to compare to men, more women want jobs to measure up to men. sad case honestly. thats why old women become lesbians and but gain no happiness.

Woah. Now I know you are not trying to suggest that women should have their rights taken away? And where on earth did you get the "lesbians have no happiness" theory? I'm sorry I don't know one miserable homosexual person. What about all the men and women that marry too young and are too stubborn or have to "high" of morals to get a divorce so they stay in an unhealthy marraige, miserable for the rest of their lives?

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7) lesbian and gay rights- affects the birthrate tremendously!!!!!!!! cannot stressed it enough.

Seriously, if I see you on the street, expect a bitch slap across your face. Are you saying lesbians and gays don't deserve the same rights as everyone else? What you're attracted to should NOT affect what rights you are allowed to have. Just the same as skin colour.

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8) education- more knowledge equals to a less risk taking and probability- gone to extreme where knowledge suppresses the need to start a family.

Are you saying we should all quit our education and start families? Yes, let's tell all the doctors that they need to go quit their jobs and stop helping people live because they need to start a family. Let's tell all the scientists that create all the amazing technology that we have to quit their jobs... we need babies!!! Because our world isn't overpopulated or anything.

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9) poor moral values- which leads to premarital sex- point 4

Again, what's the problem with premarital sex?

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warning- if the western world fails to comply or understand this threat, bye bye the white race, and prepare for integration and migration of third world countries into your urban environment. to be honest, might go extinct. unless u buckle up and reproduced like rabbit. abolish women's rights, kill the old people- they are killing our income or abolish security benefits. bring the house prices down or ask the government to control house prices.

You seem like a racist, ignorant prick. Some of the most intelligent people I have had the pleasure of associating myself with are "coloured". Ever hear of the phrase "white trash"? What do you have to say about those people?

I'm surprised squirrelly even responded to that garbage

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Originally posted by Sunsnail I'm surprised squirrelly even responded to that garbage

Someone had to. Hopefully it's just someone taking the piss. Blame Derek, he's the one who gave me the link. It's a good distraction though to all the work I'm doing.

She is our resident fundie responder!

Who is Derek anyway?

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Originally posted by St_Andrew She is our resident fundie responder! Who is Derek anyway?

Not so sure if I'm proud of that title.

Derek = Psy-T

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